Posts Tagged ‘The Creature from Jekyll Island’

Thrilling Thursday – Will Jackson Hole Give us S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTEI could take today off.  

Why?  Because I already wrote this article last month, on a Thursday, when the S&P was at 1,988 and topped out at 1,991, which was $199.06 on SPY and, as you can see from Dave Fry's chart, SPY topped out at $199.16 yesterday (before plunging back to $198.90 on strong volume into the close).  

Will this time be different?  I certainly hope so because last time, we plunged about 5%, back to 1,904 over the next 10 sessions and it's taken us another 10 to claw our way back for another attempt at an all-time high.

In our Live Member Chat this morning, we shorted the run-up in the Futures at Dow 16,990 (/YM), S&P 1,985 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,045 (/NQ) and Russell 1,155 (/TF) because, as I said to our Members:

I'm sorry but I simply can't reconcile this news with what's going on in the markets so I'm going to continue to lose money hedging to make sure we keep what we have.  The alternative is going to cash but there is simply no way I can endorse getting more bullish on this market at this point.  

NDX WEEKLYOne major difference this time is we DON'T have money flowing out of SPY (as much), as we did last month and we DO have the Fed's Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, which looks to Global Investors like a Santa Claus convention with Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda sitting under the spruce trees with gigantic bags of FREE MONEY – and that's why traders are as giddy as kids before Christmas this week.

But, Virginia, is there really a Santa Claus, or are the bulls hopes and dreams about to be crushed by cruel economic realities they have, so far, been avoiding like the plague (or Ebola)?  Realities like China's horrific PMI this morning, that dropped from 51.7 to 50.3 (barely positive) and France's PMI, which is back in heavy contraction at 46.5 this morning.  Retail Sales…
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Monday Markets – Mr. Obama Goes to Wall Street

Today should be very interesting!

One year to the day after Lehman Brothers collapsed and precipitated a financial crisis that reverberated across the globe, President Obama will deliver a major speech on the financial crisis at Federal Hall in New York City at midday on Monday.  According to the White House: "He will discuss the aggressive steps the Administration has taken to bring the economy back from the brink, the commitment to winding down the government's role in the financial sector and the actions the United States and the global community must take to prevent a crisis like this from ever happening again."

As I had mentioned in our Year One Review of the Stock Market Crash, Obama and Wall Street did not get off to a great start but, even after the March crash, we are still up 20% since he was sworn in in January as the President has been EXTREMELY accommodative to Wall Street's needs (ie. free money) so far.  That has been the carrot - perhaps now it is time for the stick…

The Treasury just released a document entitled: "The Next Phase of Government Financial Stabilization and Rehabilitation Policies" which, at 51 pages, is a pretty neat review of the crash as well but I still prefer mine as it saves you an hour and has much better pictures.  There are many charts in the government's documents and they are not all that encouraging.  As the report concludes: 

We must address the structural weaknesses in our financial system that this crisis revealed. The Administration is working to gain approval of a detailed set of proposals to reform our regulatory system to address these weaknesses and keep our financial markets and economy on track to a sustainable recovery.

In addition to Obama speaking at noon, we have 3 Fed Governors making speeches today.  Duke speaks on Regulatory Reform at 8:30, Lacker talks about Financial Regulation at 12:30 (right after Obama) and Yellen gives an Economic Outlook at 3:50, just in time for a stick-save into the bell so we could have a wild ride this morning! 

Speaking of the Fed, I just read a great book called "The Creature from Jekyll Island," which our man Ron Paul calls: "What every American needs to know
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The Trouble with our Banking System

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The Trouble with our Banking System

Courtesy of Tom Burger at Applying the Lessons of Free Market Economics 

The modern US banking system came into existence with the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. This legislation established the Federal Reserve System as the central bank of the United States with monopoly privileges to create and manage the nation’s currency as it saw fit. After almost 100 years of experience with the Federal Reserve, most contemporary economists, it seems, can’t even imagine our economy without a central bank.

The Federal Reserve’s objectives were spelled out in the 1913 Act: "… to promote effectively the goals of maxi­mum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” The Fed’s current web site goes on to discuss the expected benefits of its monetary stewardship: 

" When prices are stable and believed likely to remain so, the prices of goods, services, materials, and labor are undistorted by inflation and serve as clearer signals and guides to the efficient allocation of resources and thus contribute to higher standards of living. Moreover, stable prices foster saving and capital formation, because when the risk of erosion of asset values resulting from inflation—and the need to guard against such losses—are minimized, households are encouraged to save more and busi­nesses are encouraged to invest more."[1]

Of course, swallowing this line is a bit difficult for anyone with knowledge of economic history. Twenty five years ago, in 1984, Murray N. Rothbard noted an interesting fact:

"Since instability, inflation, and depressions have been far worse since the inception of the Federal Reserve, many economists have concluded that the Fed has failed in its task and have come up with various suggestions for reform to try and get it on the correct track." [2] 

Since the early 1980s, our central bankers proudly note, the Consumer Price Index has fallen steadily to levels that are currently very low. Nevertheless, the remainder of Rothbard’s statement appears to be just as valid in 2009 as it was in 1984. There may not be many economists criticizing the Fed itself today, but reformed bank regulation is now being discussed as one government response to our latest economic crisis.

So why is it that the Federal Reserve has been unable to


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Zero Hedge

Fragility In The World 2019

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Apra Sharma via WorldOutOfWhack.com,

Yemen is labelled as the most fragile country by Fragile States Index in 2019. Finland is now the least fragile country.

Source: https://fragilestatesindex.org/

(Highlights from Fragile States Index)

“This year, Yemen claimed the top position for the fi...



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Phil's Favorites

How Does this Happen?

 

How Does this Happen?

Courtesy of 

Apple has added $286 billion in market capitalization over the past 73 trading sessions. That’s $10 million every minute.

There are only 11 companies in the United States with a higher valuation than what Apple managed to tack on since January 3rd.

The biggest stock in the world gained 43% in under four months. How does something like this happen?

This question is a Rorschach test of sorts. Some people will see this and scoff at the idea that m...



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Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



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Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

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Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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