Posts Tagged ‘The Oxen Group’

Oxen Pick (SHORT SELL): LUV

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

Oxen Pick (SHORT SELL): LUV

The Oxen Group is looking for a short sell on Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) tomorrow. The market may move green or red, and it really comes down to Bank of America, Citigroup, and GE. Those three giants release earnings tomorrow. If all three are splendid, the market will really take off, even Southwest Airlines.

The issue for Southwest is that even if that does occur, this stock is going to come down. In after hours today, Moody’s Investor Ratings commented that they were putting LUV on a possible credit downgrade due to the weak demand and market for airfare. The airline industry has been struggling, but Southwest Airlines always seems to be a step in front of the competition. This news of a likely downgrade spells bad news for Southwest, especially because the stock has really no upside right now.

What will Southwest do?  If the market is looking to trend down after the earnings reports, LUV will drop right away and continue to trend down on a red day. If, however, the market jumps out of the gate and looks bullish, LUV will most likely have some type of small gains into the day, but it will not be able to sustain those gains and move backwards. Further, one has to wonder even if the earnings are positive, how much more this market has to go with four straight days in the green and a lot of quickly overvalued stocks. Additionally, if CIT goes bankrupt it could add more fuel to a downward market. LUV technically is, outside of its upper bollinger band, way overbought. So, its technicals all point towards downward movement.

Entry: Recommend selling 15-30 minutes into session if earnings are good, right away if bad. 
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all entry in prices
Upper Resistance: 6.60 (lower)
Oxen Rating*: 5

 

 


Tags: , ,




The Oxen Group – GS

What dip?  Ironically, GS gets upgraded by Meredith Whitney in the middle of our dip buying plans… Goldman Sachs upgrade gives world markets a boost,

Europe had been trading only modestly higher while Wall Street futures had been pointing to a lower opening. That changed after Meredith Whitney told CNBC Television that she had upgraded her recommendation on U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to "buy" and raised her price target to $186 a share — a day before it reports its second-quarter earnings. Whitney, who has been viewed as bearish on the sector, also said Bank of America Corp. could be good value.

In early trading, Goldman Sachs was up 2.9 percent at $145.98 while Bank of America rose 3.9 percent to $12.34…

*****

Today David of The Oxen Group’s buying our favorite evil company, GS, on a dip. – Ilene

What to Buy: GS

GS, Goldman Sachs chartCourtesy of David at The Oxen Group 

The buy pick is made every evening at Midnight before the next day begins. The pick is a single day trade of a stock or ETF. The Oxen Group provides analysis, entry/exit points, resistance levels, and a rating for the pick. Picks are only single day trades.

The Oxen Group is going to recommend the evil stock on Monday, as it seems to have become more and more in the past few years. Goldman Sachs (GS) may be a very solid play on Monday as buyer interest will be rising on the stock going into earnings. The stock is expected to hit a ridiculous $2 billion profit for the company’s Q2 on Tuesday’s earnings release.

The market is looking bearish for tomorrow. Going into the weekend, we got bad consumer sentiment reports, a sell off in the market, and nothing to spark our interest over the weekend. Until we see a multitude of companies giving investors reason to buy, the market will continue to be sideways to slightly bearish. Monday morning, the only company reporting earnings of any concern is Fastenal (FAS), and it does not have the capabilites to move a market.

Economic news is limited to a budget report. It will be another day of investor’s anticipations. Well, what company is going to have better anticipation than Goldman Sachs? We believe the stock will dive in the morning, but it should trend at a nice pace up from…
continue reading


Tags: , ,




What to Buy: HOTT

What to Buy: HOTT

Courtesy of David of The Oxen Group

The Oxen Group is trying out another new style of investing tomorrow. In this market, finding a single day trade you can count on pretty difficult. Tomorrow, however, we are fairly confident the market should have a solid increase. Alcoa earnings came out kicking for the beginning of Q2 earnings, and the market has responded with some of the first green futures we have seen in quite some time. With bargains in the market, Alcoa looking great, a positive report from the Fed about consumer credit, and the possibility of positive earnings from a number of tech companies,I would say this Thursday is looking as good as the market can look.

Therefore, Hot Topic Inc. (HOTT) may be a very nice play for some large movement. The company actually had very negative after hours news, lowering their Q2 earnings outlook and lowering their revenue estimates. The company will definitely take a stumble tomorrow morning on the news, with a 6% decline in after hours. However, if the market really does make a move up tomorrow, Hot Topic may be in a position where it can significantly move up from valley. The stock is very near a lower bollinger band, it is oversold, and it really has little room for downward momentum.

The Oxen Group is confident the stock should bounce off a bottom and move upwards from there. How low it goes is the challenge, but we think a 2 to even 3 percent move downwards should be a nice play to buy in. The stock is not a great long term play, but it is a nice play off a bottom tomorrow.

Entry: Recommend buying in around 2-3% decline from opening price or 20-45 minutes in.

Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices
Upper Resistance: 7.25

 


Tags: ,




What to Buy: ERX

What to Buy: ERX 

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

ERX DD Energy Bull 3xDavid at The Oxen Group recommends a purchase of Direxion’s Oil and Energy Daily Bull ETF (ERX) for Tuesday. The oil market may be ready to make some positive gains which should light a fire under this ETF.

Oil is looking slightly bullish on Tuesday to begin with because of a technical correction that is needed. The market has fallen over 10% in a week, and prices have moved down too low, too fast. A lot of sellers have sold and are becoming buyers again. Gerard Rigby of Fuel First Consulting believes oil is ready to move back to $70 per barrel as the economy is in the same place and there really is no reason for it to move down any further. He believes the profit taking and correction is done. At least for tomorrow, this makes sense.

Tomorrow, there is really no significant economic news once again and no primary earnings, which should send the market into a similar seesaw that it was in today. This is a perfect opportunity for a purely technical correction. More bad news from Nigeria’s militant operations, analysts’ saying crude inventories are falling again, and speculation on the EIA data on Wednesday could all be catalysts to help drive up crude prices slightly.

The price of oil gained in Asia, which is a telling sign that a technical correction should be on the way. The futures are slightly negative, but with no positive news in the after hours, this seems logical. ERX will benefit greatly from any movement positively in oil prices. The stock has dropped over 10% in just two trading days, and it looks poised for a pop. Get in early and ride a nice 3-4% gain.

Entry: Recommend entering 10-25 minutes into session.
Exit: Recommend exiting on 2-4% increase from buy price.
Resistance: Upper at 28

David’s Results Charts

date stock entry


continue reading


Tags: ,




The Oxen Group: Trading Results and Strategies

The Oxen Group:  Trading Results and Strategies 

stock tradingBy Ilene 

David, of The Oxen Group, has been giving us high-probability trade recommendations that have been a terrific addition to our trading strategies – simple stock selections, great for single day trades. If you haven’t been following, or wish to see David’s updated results, there’s a summary of results table below. As you can see, out of 23 trades, 20 were breakeven (two) or profitable (18), and only three ended in losses.
 
In our experience of a little over one month, we’ve identified a dynamic factor to keep in mind:  market moving news. News that can change the premise of a trade may come out between the time of David’s recommendation and the opening of the equity markets. This has occurred with TYH – the Direxion Daily Technology Bull ETF.  A similar situation occurred recently when the trade was an either-or trade, but a specific pre-condition changed. 
 
On the day of the TYH trade, in pre-market comments, Phil suggested passing on the trade due to news that came out prior to the opening. Phil wrote:  "Well I’m generally worried and David is bullish so that’s a "no play" to me.  Also, note that he took that position around midnight, when the Hang Seng and Nikkei still looked good and oil was pumped up to $73, all that collapsed with the World Bank report.  If we do hold our floor, then it can be a fun trade but I sure wouldn’t be jumping right into a 3x bull tech this morning."  In this case, TYH drifted down all day - the premise for the trade was over powered by the intervening World Bank report.
 
We will try to notify readers when we know of events prior to the open that may affect a pending trade idea.  However, even if you don’t see anything specific, remember that over-riding and unforeseeable market forces may come into play after David’s analysis.  
 
The second incident was last Thursday.  David’s premise didn’t change, but the number he was initially looking at was preempted by other numbers.  The jobs report was worse than expected, resulting in the actual trade being ERY (not ERX). 
 
While we work on ways to get information to traders quickly, please be sure to check The Oxen Group’s site for trading
continue reading


Tags: ,




The Oxen Group’s Pick: VIA – B

The Oxen Group’s Pick: VIA – B

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

On Monday, to start the week, Viacom Inc.’s Class B (VIA-B) stock looks ready for a nice move. The stock should benefit from some fundamental and technical analysis. The market is in a sideways trend, currently, waiting for the Q2 earnings to be released to see where the market is at, and the market is no longer able to move on just about anything. Therefore, fundamental news will really make it for this market.

Viacom will benefit from the bullish news coming out from "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen." The movie has been a box office smash, which was released by Paramount Pictures, a subsidiary of Viacom Inc. Transformers made $112 million this past weekend, winning the box office, becoming the top grossing movie thus far this year in the first weekend. Most analysts and studios were not expecting as outstanding results, and the movie is falling just short of "Dark Knight" last year. In just five days, Transformers II did 2/3 the total earnings of Transformers I, and it performed well besides weak reviews. The next closest movie, "The Proposal," only accrued $18.5 million. Technically, this news should send a shot into Viacom. The stock has been oversold, near its lower bollinger band, and it has been trending up on fast stochastics, meaning there are a lot of potential buyers ready to enter the stock.

Monday’s market is not looking bullish or bearish, with little fundamental news on the horizon and nothing too important as far as earnings. Asia is mirroring an expected sideways market that should play out in the USA. The last bit of positive news would be that this is the July 4th week, and this week tends to be bullish. Wait for a pullback on VIA.

Entry: 15-30 minutes in, after pullback
Exit: 2-4% increase from buy in
Resistance: 25.50 upper

Table of Results

DATE Stock


continue reading


Tags: ,




Buy Pick: SONC

Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group

Today’s Buy Pick: SONC

Sonic Chart,SONCTomorrow [now today], Sonic Corp. (SONC) looks to be a very bullish for tomorrow. In after hours, Sonic reported very positive earnings, beating expectations on revenue and EPS. The reason we like Sonic is because the company should be able to move up significantly. First, the market looks pretty positive for tomorrow. The Fed’s expected announcements should be extremely positive for the market as they should confirm rates and give bullish news on the economy.

Futures are already up strongly for the Dow and S&P as they expect good news from the Fed. Even if the Fed news is not extremely bullish, the market should move SONC up higher before the announcement, which should come sometime in the early afternoon. Sonic’s earnings beat EPS by 0.04, even though the company did see a dip in profits and sales. However, the company was highly criticized for their pricing in the last quarter and introduced a cheaper menu to draw in customers. Typically, when a company reports strong earnings, The Oxen Group does not like to recommend it because the stock will move down from a gap up. However, with Sonic, the stock has a low volume, which means that the stock should be flooded with more investors, making it easier for the rise.

Further, Sonic has strong technical indicators that should also help the stock move up. It is slightly oversold, undervalued, and towards its lower bollinger band – it has a lot to room move up. After the stock gaps up, and moves down, with a bullish market, Sonic earnings should continue to advance the stock.

Entry: Recommended entering 10-25 minutes
Exit: 2-4% increase
Resistance: Upper resistance 9.50

Table of David’s Results

Date   Stock Entry Exit


continue reading


Tags: , , ,




Pick of the day: SRS

Courtesy of David at the Oxen Group

Pick of the day: SRS

SRS Chart - Oxen GroupThe Oxen Group, for Wednesday, is looking at a continued bearish market for a third straight day. With today’s bullish economic data, investors still sold off stocks, pointing to a bear market that should continue as a bland day continues tomorrow. Most analysts think that Obama’s financial regulation plans will not do much for the market. Futures are up, in after hours, but with this data, if a rally cannot be held, then there is no reason to expect a positive day at this time. The CPI will determine the day.

One industry that really looks bearish tomorrow is housing. The housing industry got a shot with, on the surface, bullish news. Instead, the housing market ended up with minimal gains or in the red. Light volume shows that investors are not excited about the market.

Tomorrow should continue a downward trend for housing sparked by a downgrade of Beazer Homes to ultra-junk status by the S&P.  That sent the stock down 10% in after hours. This is really a market that needs some very bullish jolt to get it going, and it until that happens this market is fundamentally bearish. With that said, Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate looks to be a strong play as an inverse to the housing industry, which should fall after its run up today. Technically, the ETF has been moving and is trending upwards with more buyers getting involved. Buyers are still on the sidelines to short housing. Buy in early and watch the run!

Entry: Recommend buying within first 5 – 25 minutes.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Upper Resistance: 22.50

 

David’s Oxen Group Picks

Date           Stock Entry Exit %Change
5/29/2009           GPS 16.99 17.67 4.00%
5/30/2009           TM 80.77 81.72 1.18%
6/2/2009          SRS 18.06 18.6 3.00%
6/3/2009          DUG 16.68 17.35 4.00%
6/4/2009     TLAB – SS 5.95 5.84 2.00%
   6/5/2009               XOP 35.84 35.85 0.00%
6/8/2009              BLK 164.76 168.87 2.50%
6/9/2009          USD 20.3 21.12 4.00%
6/10/2009          SINA 30.17 31.07 3.00%
6/11/2009          SRS 18.39 19.3 5.00%
  6/12/2009              NSM 13.23 13.56 2.50%
6/15/2009          SKF 18.32 19.05 4.00%

 

 


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Ray Dalio Is Kinda, Sorta, Really Wrong, Part 2

 

Ray Dalio Is Kinda, Sorta, Really Wrong, Part 2

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Last week we started a mini-series in the form of an open letter responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates. I wrote that he was kinda, sorta wrong in Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed, Parts 1 and 2 but really, really wrong in ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Hong Kong Rocked By Biggest March Yet After Extradition Bill Pulled; Millions Demand Lam Resign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite City Executive Carrie Lam's major concession to the protest movement - that is, the (not really) 'indefinite' suspension of the extradition bill that catalyzed the protests - a planned protest march went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, marking the second consecutive Sunday of street protests in Hong Kong.

...



more from Tyler

Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



more from Biotech

Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs Index Attempting 8-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Gold Bugs fans about to receive positive news they haven’t had in years? Possible!

This chart looks at the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) on a weekly basis over a couple of decades. The index has spent the majority of the past 20-year inside of rising channel (1).

The index hit the top of the channel in 2011, where it peaked and started creating a series of lower highs for the past 8-years, which has formed line (2).

The index is now kissing the underside of falling resistance and the underside the 2016/2017 lows at (3).

Joe Friday Just The Fa...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Wedbush: Apple's Stock Could Gain $20-$25 From US-China Trade Deal

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Sino-American trade dispute and near-term developments could prove to be a "major swing factor" for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Apple with an unchanged $235 pric...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

More from RTT Tv






Chart in video

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




If gold moves, silver wi...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



more from ValueWalk

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>