Posts Tagged ‘The Sunshine Report’

W, V, U, L or Z: What Direction Is The Economy Going?

Mark Sunshine discusses the possible shape of the eventual economic recovery – pick a letter, any letter.  Welcome Mark!

W, V, U, L or Z: What Direction Is The Economy Going?

Economic Nostradamus, predictions on economyCourtesy of Mark Sunshine at The Sunshine Report

Almost every day I am asked about the economic recovery and whether or not it is sustainable.

People ask because there is a constant barrage of economic predictions by economists that pretend that they know what will happen in the future even thought they still can’t figure out what happened in the past. Listening to economists and TV talking heads it’s clear that while everyone has an opinion, no one really knows if the recovery will take the form of a “W”, “V”, “U”, “V” or “Z” (I am not really sure what a “Z” recovery is but some really confusing economists are predicting it).

This time around almost all of the TV pundits are going be able to claim that they are the economic Nostradamus of our time because sooner or later graphs of economic growth are going to have the profile of most, if not all, of the letters of the alphabet. For the foreseeable future, economic growth is going to be volatile and somewhat random and almost every prediction will be right.

Rorschach test There is going to be a level of randomness to the growth trajectory of the economy as it inevitably grows, then grows at a slower pace, then grows at a faster pace, then shrinks a little, and then grows again. Unfortunately, given the seriousness of the economy’s problems, I think it will be a while before the U.S. is back on a sustainable high growth trajectory that is sustainable (thereby making the L crowd right as well).

So, like a Rorschach Test, for the next few years there will be something for everyone in the economic statistics.

The U.S. economy is starting to bounce back because of the positive cumulative effects of (i) an inventory rebuilding cycle (i.e., production of new inventory is rising because inventory stocks in many industries are depleted and need to be replenished), (ii) a lot of fiscal and monetary stimuli and (iii) productivity growth (one tiny, positive side effect of layoffs). The bounce from inventory restocking will be temporary and, as a result, if all other things remain constant, growth will taper off to a much slower pace late in the 4th quarter
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Zero Hedge

Over 1 Million Californians May Be Affected By Imminent Fire-Prevention Blackout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Californians will once again get to 'enjoy' a pre-industrial lifestyle this week as state utilities gear up for another round of intentional blackouts aimed at reducing the risk of fires, according to Bloomberg, while PG&E claims that over to 1 million residents may be impacted by the shutoffs. 

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Phil's Favorites

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

 

Oil companies are thinking about a low-carbon future, but aren't making big investments in it yet

Oil pump jacks in Williston, N.D. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Courtesy of Lewis Fulton, University of California, Davis and Daniel Sperling, University of California, Davis

The global oil industry stands at a crossroads. Corporate leaders are weighing how closely to stay wedded to their legacy business ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P Needs This Key Indicator To Experience A Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is a leading Tech sector about to send the broad market a key message? In our opinion, yes!

This chart looks at the Semiconductor/S&P ratio over the past couple of years.

When the ratio peaked around March of last year at (1), numerous indices in the states (NYSE, Mid-Caps, Small Caps) and around the world (EEM & EFA) started to create a series of lower highs.

The SMH/SPY ratio is again testing the highs of early 2018 at (2).

Many indices in the states and around the world, need this ratio to continue to move higher/experience if the...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Falls 1%

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. The FHFA house price index for August will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 27 points to 26,736 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded fell 2.75 points to 2,991.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index fell 5.25 points to 7,853.50.

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Digital Currencies

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos - among other problems

 

Blockchain voting is vulnerable to hackers, software glitches and bad ID photos – among other problems

How secure is online voting with blockchain technology? WhiteDragon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Nir Kshetri, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

A developing technology called “blockchain” has gotten attention from election officials, startups and even Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang as a ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

 

Repo Market Bank Regulations and the Slings And Arrows of Outrageous Leverage

Courtesy of 

Are repo market regulations really behind the money market’s problems? That’s what bankers and their hired mouthpieces are saying.

So I need to get a few things off my chest about this notion that post financial crash Dodd-Frank bank regulations are the cause of the current repo market problems.

It’s total bullsh*t. The bankers and their superleveraged hed...



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The Technical Traders

Daily Market Forecast and Trading Patterns

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

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GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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