Posts Tagged ‘TIE’

Buyers Of Titanium Metals Corp. Calls Ahead Of PCP Deal Raking It In As Shares Soar

 

Today’s tickers: TIE, LLY & FBC

TIE - Titanium Metals Corp. – Shares in the producer of titanium melted and mill products are up better than 40% on Monday after Precision Castparts Corp. announced late on Friday it will buy Titanium Metals Corp. for $16.50 a share. Options traders who purchased upside calls as recently as Friday afternoon are, in some cases, enjoying massive gains in the value of their options contracts today given the move in the stock. For example, open interest in the Nov. $12 strike call increased by around 200 contracts on Friday, with the bulk of that volume established by traders spending an average of $0.13 apiece to get long the options. The Nov. $12 strike calls this afternoon are changing hands at a last-traded price of $4.40 each, a more than thirty-fold increase since Friday. Four weeks ago, one or more bullish traders purchased 800 calls at the Nov. $13 strike at a premium of $0.15 per contract. The Nov. $13 strike call options currently tout a price tag of $3.60 apiece as of 1:10 p.m. ET, or twenty-four times what traders paid back on October 15th. As of the time of this writing, upwards of 11,300 options have changed hands on Titanium Metals Corp. The most active contracts at present are in-the-money call options in play at the Jan. 2013 $15 and $16 striking prices.

LLY - Eli Lilly and Co. – Bullish options are in play on drug maker, Eli Lilly and Co., today as shares in the name tack on 2.3% to $48.56 in early-afternoon trading. The company is scheduled to present Phase II data in rheumatoid arthritis for two investigational autoimmune drugs at the annual meeting of the American College of Rheumatology tomorrow, according to a press release issued by the company last week, and will present at the Credit Suisse 2012 Healthcare Conference on Thursday morning. Traders looking for shares in the name to extend gains this week…
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Under Armour Calls Active

Today’s tickers: UA, AIG & TIE

UA - Under Armour, Inc. – Options on the athletic apparel maker are more active than usual today, with volume of 11,300 contracts running more than four times the stock’s 90-day average options volume of 2,475 contracts. Shares in Under Armour are down 0.80% at $98.19 in early-afternoon trade, slipping Tuesday after hitting a new all time high of $99.35 on Monday. Options traders exchanging around 2.5 calls on the name for each single put in play so far in the session appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to continue to secure fresh highs in the next few weeks. In- and out-of-the-money calls in the front month are seeing the most action, with the April $95 and $97.5 strike calls trading upwards of 1,100 times each. Traders positioning for fresh record highs in the price of the stock snapped up more than 500 calls at each of the April $105 and $110 strikes, paying premiums of $1.00 and $0.33 apiece, respectively. Call buyers may profit at expiration should Under Armour’s shares post sharp gains prior to the Company’s first-quarter earnings report on April 24th. The April contract calls expire several days ahead of UA’s earnings release. Traders long the call options may profit at April expiration as long as Under Armour’s shares surge 6.7% and 11.1% to top average breakeven prices of $106.00 and $110.33, respectively.

AIG - American International Group, Inc. – Shares in AIG have mostly traded within the range of $20.00 to $30.00 during the most recent six month period. Activity in long-dated call options on the insurer, however, suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to break out strongly to the upside at some point during the next ten months. Shares…
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Wednesday Wheeee – Our W’s Are Shaping Up Nicely!

Wheeeeeeeeeeee! 

Here we go again.  We made it through our "Testy Tuesday" and, as you can see from our Big Chart, we hit our goals with 4 of our 5 indexes coming right up to their resistance lines – not bad for support lines we first drew in April of 2009!  

As I often say: I am neither Bullish nor Bearish – just Rangeish.  Rangeish has been the winning play for us for quite a while.  I was on TV August 2nd, where I laid out our plan for the month (20% drop) and we were VERY HAPPY to do our bottom fishing at those -10% lines for the last few weeks and now we are back in a zone of relative uncertainty where we must hold our Must Hold lines.

On Friday, the 19th, we were confident enough in our bottom call (I led the post off with: "We are now officially getting silly" as the futures tanked that morning) that we shorted EWG puts in the morning post and shorted the VIX at $42.50 with a VXX spread that’s already up 1,433% but well on track to double that.   

Also in that morning post (and this is just the free stuff!) I put up a bullish trade idea on XOM at $70 that is obviously doing very well (XOM $74 yesterday) as well as calling for longs on the Futures at Russell (/TF) at 650, Nasdaq (/NQ) at 2,050 and Oil (/CL) at $80.  If you didn’t play those bullish, don’t look now because you might cry…  

Once the market opened that day, we added an aggressive play on HPQ in our $25,000 virtual portfolio, buying 20 Sept $26 calls for .60 (now .93, up 55%) and paying for them by selling 5 Sept $23 puts for $1.57 (now .20, up 87%).  That trade was net $415 and is currently worth $1,760 – up 324% in two weeks.  

We are able to do that when we take advantage of the very high VIX (which we expected to go down) as well as taking specific advantage of HPQ coming off disappointing earnings but it’s not the charts — it can NEVER be the charts that tell you to buy a stock that is plummeting – it’s FUNDAMENTALS!  

We also picked up TIE that afternoon and an aggressive upside play on the Russell…
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Vacation-Proofing Your Virtual Portfolio

 

Option Sage Submits: 

When driving a car and some object appears on the road ahead do you usually run right over it or do your best to avoid it?  

Don’t we all take action in real-life based on the new information we receive that changes the old paradigm?  Take the first two guys in this video:  Who would you rather be, the first or the second guy?  While the second gentleman reacts and looks ridiculous in so doing, he’s the guy that is more likely to survive when real disaster hits because he’s reacting to new information.  In fact he doesn’t even know what’s making everyone else react, he just knows that when 99% are moving one way in panic, it’s best not to fight the crowd or he will be trampled.  It’s no different in the market.  Pride, ego and old theses have no place when new information directly contradicts an existing trade.

This week, we used DIA and QQQ puts and calls to "react" to


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Oracle Bulls Envision 10% Rally in Shares by June Expiration

Today’s tickers: ORCL, KFT, CLF, JPM, JCP, MCD, ROK, HK, TIE & LXK

ORCL – Oracle Corp. – Options players are initiating bullish stances on software development firm, Oracle Corp., today ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report scheduled for Thursday after the closing bell. Oracle’s shares rallied 0.95% during the current session to trade at a new 52-week high of $25.80. Medium-term optimists scooped up 10,600 call options at the June $28 strike for an average premium of $0.37 per contract. Perhaps plain-vanilla call buyers foresee continued bullish movement in the price of Oracle’s shares through expiration in June. Investors long the calls accrue profits if shares of the underlying stock surge 10% from the current price to breach the breakeven point at $28.37 by expiration day.

KFT – Kraft Foods, Inc. – Voracious investor appetite for call options on Kraft Foods this afternoon pushed the KFT ticker symbol onto our ‘most active by options volume market scanner’ as shares of the U.S. food maker jumped 2.25% to a new 52-week high of $30.40. It looks like one particularly bullish individual satisfied his hunger for Kraft-calls by purchasing a large chunk of 16,000 contracts at the September $32 strike for a premium of $0.69 apiece. The investor holding the call options is prepared to reel in profits on the position if Kraft’s shares rally another 7.50% from the current value to surpass the breakeven price of $32.69 by expiration day in September.

CLF – Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc. – Shares of iron ore pellet producer, Cliffs Natural Resources, jumped more than 6.00% during the trading day to arrive at a fresh 52-week high of $69.34. Investors celebrated Cliffs’ new high by enacting a plethora of bullish options strategies on the stock. One such individual established a ratio risk reversal in order to cover the cost of taking a long position in Cliffs-calls. The optimistic trader sold 1,500 deep in-the-money put options at the July $75 strike for a premium of $11.50 per contract, and purchased 3,000 calls at the same strike for an average premium of $4.51 each. The reversal player pockets a net credit of $2.48 per contract on the transaction, which he keeps if shares of the underlying stock rally up to or above $75.00 by expiration. Additional profits also accumulate for the trader should shares breach the effective breakeven price of $75.00. Other bullish investors initiated…
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Which Way Wednesday – Beige Book Boogie

The futures were boogying "all night long."

THIS is why we love being born-again bulls. China’s Hang Seng down 578 points on the Hangs Seng (2.5%) – It doesn’t matter! Shanghai down 3.1% – It doesn’t matter! Europe down half a point – It doesn’t matter!  Germany’s economy contracted 5% in 2009, the worst decline since WWII (the big one) – It doesn’t matter! ABC Consumer Comfort Poll drops 11% with just 9% of Americans rating the economy postively – IT JUST DOESN’T MATTER - because WE are those 9% of Americans, right! OUR economy is just fine and we don’t know what that 91% contingent of babies is whining about do we? 

Yes, it’s been a while since I dubbed us in a Meatball Market.  The last market I labled as such was November 30th, 2006, when the Dow broke through 12,000 on the way to 14,000.  Our bullish picks that day included BA, CAT, COF, DOW, GE, HD, JWN, QQQQ, TIE, TIF, XLE and XOM.  Those were all, of course, fantastic picks but what I want you to do is read the October 2nd, 2007 article, where I began to turn cynical on the "Meatball Market" and I made the following statement:

Superman ReturnsUp, up and away – it’s Super Market!  It’s bugdet proof, oil proof, terror (threat) proof, housing proof, inflation proof and pullback proof - 3 weeks in a row!

This is truly a Market of Steel (and the recent movement of X underscores that) and looking at the movement of the past week we really do have to believe it can fly…  Is the US consumer (driver of 2/3 of the economy) really impervious to harm?  What, if anything, is our stock market Kryptonite?

Unstable currency, runaway commodity prices, spiraling inflation, low savings rates, hedge fund collapses, declining home values, banks writing down their virtual portfolios, hundreds of thousands of layoffs, millions of foreclosures — it simply does not matter as long as they are LOCAL problems for the US as we are a smaller and smaller cog in the great global economy, one day we may even be granted emerging market status by our Chinese masters!

Doesn’t sound like much has changed in 2 years does it?  Unfortunately, that also happened to be the day that Alan Greenspan (now working for PimpCo) decided to call China, with the Hang Seng
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PSW Rewind of 2009 – The First Quarter

Thursday's close was very exciting, wasn't it?

Well it sure was for us as my 10:01 Alert to Members was a play on the DIA Jan $103 puts at .56.  Thanks to the late afternoon dip, they finished the day at .90 (up 60%) after peaking out at .95, a very nice win to close off the year.  That was the only Alert trade all week as this market has been too tough to call and we don't make trades just for the hell of it.  I had been sniping at DIA puts all week expecting a pay-off but Thursday it finally came together.

Of course, I also strongly advocated hedging on Thursday morning and listed 4 trade ideas in the morning post to hedge ourselves against the possibility of just such a drop so don't say you haven't been warned.  Whether there will be follow-through on Monday or a full reversal remains to be seen and, even if I knew, I wouldn't tell you here because this is a review – predictions are another article entirely

We treaded very cautiously into last year because our PSW Holiday Retail Survey was not looking very pretty so it was no surprise to us, on Dec 26th, when we got some horrific retail reports.  These are, of course, the same reports that we "beat" this year – but not by much.  Dec 29th was Monday and Israeli jets attacked Hamas targets in the Gaza sending oil flying up to $48 a barrel.  That gave us a nice commodity rally into the close of the year but January 2nd was a Friday and we decided (fortunately) to take the money and run on our long plays, holding open our main cover of SKF Jan $120s at $4.35, which hit $80 later in the month (up 1,732%) and USO Feb $32 puts at $3.40, which hit $10.50 in the Feb dip (up 208%) so, on the whole, not too differently positioned than we are now, coming into the new year.  Visually 2009 looked a little like this:

January – Waiting for Obama, or Something, to Change

We began January much the same way we ended December with my Wed Jan
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Two Week Wrap-Up – Trading Our Range

Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive.  – Champstar2

We didn't have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.

In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605.  That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we've been having a good time playing both ends of it.

Rather than just wrapping up this week's moves, I thought we'd add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don't say bears!) studying.  Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don't just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors.  I'm talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective.  It's not that I'm so good at predicting things – it's really just that I'm good at spotting the BS…

Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving

I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars.  It's a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up, Topping or Popping?

This was an annoying week for bulls and bears alike.

We had a very exciting day on Monday, topping out at 10,248 but I didn't like the way we got there (low-volume, commodity rally, as noted in David Fry's chart) and, when pressed for a prediction on TV that evening, I had to say that I felt that we were more likely to be down by Thanksgiving than up with a possible Santa Claus bounce into Christmas.   What we did get for the remainder of the week was very choppy action on even lower volume

I had mentioned in last week's "Wrong-Way Weekly Wrap-Up" that we were partying like it's 1999 as we broke through Dow 10,000 and S&P 1,080, despite rapidly deteriorating fundamentals.  Stocks are being bought because they are going up in price (much like commodities), not because there is any actual demand for them and that is very clear from the rapidly declining index volume as we run back into resistance at S&P 1,100. 

Since early September our upside targets for the indexes have been: Dow 10,087, S&P 1,096, Nasdaq 2,173, NYSE 7,204 and Russell 623 and nothing has happened to change our fundamental outlook for the better so the closer we get to those levels, the LESS comfortable we are taking bullish positions.  In fact, yesterday as we got our mid-day spike to 10,300, I told members that it was sorely tempting to just cash out all bullish positions and take 20% of the virtual portfolio 100% bearish with a 10% stop.  Rather than mess around with a mix of positions, going fully bearish can allow for some spectacular gains if we crash and stopping out with a 50% loss would suck – but a breakout like that, well above Dow 11,000 and S&P 1,200 would certainly give us reason to be more bullish.

As I concluded last week: "We’re generally not happy until we see Russell 600 and the Dow Transports over 4,000 (now 3,852) and we took a 55% bearish stance into the weekend because we’ll feel a lot less silly being burned by a move up than we would if we weren’t bearish enough for a move down.  It would be nice to be able to make more of a commitment but the bulls clearly have the bears cowering in fear so we’ll just patiently wait and see how
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Option Bulls Covet Coal-Calls on ACI

Today’s tickers: ACI, MGM, EWJ, HSY, YHOO, TIE & GLD

ACI - Far-term option bulls were not discouraged from establishing optimistic positions on the coal producer today despite the nearly 2% decline in shares during the trading session to $17.84. Investors looking for shares to rally significantly by the start of 2010 purchased 2,000 calls at the January 23 strike for an average premium of 70 cents apiece. ACI would need to rally 33% higher for individuals long these calls to breakeven at $23.70 by expiration. Option traders also picked up 2,000 calls at the April 2010 22 strike for 1.50 per contract. Finally, curious call spreads appeared in the January 2011 contract. The trades were a bit blurred but it seems likely that the activity represents a ratio call spread. If this is the case, the investor responsible for the trade purchased about 3,000 calls at the January 30 strike for 1.40 each. These contracts were spread against the sale of some 6,000 calls at the higher January 35 strike for 93 cents premium. The trader receives a net credit of 46 cents on the transaction. He will retain the full credit and add to that amount if shares rally higher than $30.00 by expiration. Maximum potential profits on the spread amount to 5.00 (excluding the credit received today), achieved in the event that shares of ACI surge a whopping 96% from the current price by expiration in January 2011. – Arch Coal, Inc. –

MGM - The casino operator attracted bullish bets by option traders today amid a more than 7.5% rally in shares to $10.13. Notable near-term call interest was apparent at the September 11 strike price where more than 7,100 lots exchanged hands. Approximately 5,500 of the contracts were purchased for an average premium of 23 cents apiece. Investors long the calls will begin to accrue profits if shares of MGM can rise 11% higher to surpass the breakeven point at $11.23 by expiration in less than two weeks. Traders clearly favored MGM calls over puts during the session as evidenced by the call-to-put ratio of more than 3-to-1 on the stock today. – MGM Mirage, Inc. –

EWJ - The EWJ jumped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor juggled massive chunks of calls on the stock. Shares of the exchange-traded fund are currently up 0.5% to $10.18. The trader…
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Zero Hedge

Aramco Scraps US And London IPO Roadshows Amid Too Many "Uncertainties" 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Saudi Aramco has withdrawn from IPO roadshows in the US and London after it's likely they don't want to disclose oil reserve totals to Western banks and regulators. 

Meanwhile, it's becoming a giant circle-jerk for the Saudis, the IPO is expected to list on the Tadawul exchange, while the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) is expected to double the amount it would lend out to domestic "buyers" for IPO purchases, reported Bloomberg.  ...



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Phil's Favorites

How rich people like Gordon Sondland buy their way to being US ambassadors - 4 questions answered

 

How rich people like Gordon Sondland buy their way to being US ambassadors – 4 questions answered

Some positions attract more political appointments – like those in Western Europe. Markus Pfaff/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Dennis Jett, Pennsylvania State University

In every other developed democratic country, the role of ambassador, with only very rare exceptions, is given to career diplomats who have spent decades learning the art of international relations.

In the U.S., however, many ambassadors are untrained in diplo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Megaphone Breakout Continues, As It Tests 77-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

I’ve heard many times over the past 39-years I’ve been in the financial services business that charts have memories? Is it true they do? Is it possible that they have very long-term memories?

This theory looks to be put to a big test by the chart above, which looks at the Dow Jones Industrial Index since 1910.

The Dow has spent the majority of the past 77-years, inside of rising channel (1). While inside of this channel, it looks to have created two very long-term megaphone patterns.

It broke above the first megaphone pattern in the early 1980s, where ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Insider Scoop

HP Rejects Xerox's Buyout Offer: Experts Debate What's Next

Courtesy of Benzinga

HP Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) rejected Xerox Holdings Corp (NYSE: XRX)'s $33-billion takeout offer Sunday, and experts are divided on what will occur next in the ongoing saga between two tech...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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