Posts Tagged ‘trend following models’

A Tradable Edge

A tradable edge

Courtesy of Allan 

On April 1, the GLD Daily Trend Model flipped long, with GLD closing on that day at 110.26.

GLD Daily Trend Model

One week later,  GLD is above 113, for about a 3% gain.  This gain may not look like much on the above chart, but the near-term at-the-money calls are up well over 100%.   The Buy signal didn’t come in at the very bottom, but it did come in early enough in the GLD rally to generate some nice gains.  The same can be said for the three other signals shown on the Daily chart above.  I like the way these signals perform, not perfect, but a tradable edge.

What now? Hold your gold. It’s in an up trend. Same thing for financials. 

Financials and the market

FAS is a triple leveraged ETF for  financial services stocks.  Its hard to imagine the market suffering any kind of sustainable decline with this kind of strength:

FAS Daily Model
 
GS Daily Model
 
The Sell signal in GS at the end of March was not confirmed in FAS.  Wish I had noticed this earlier, but don’t know if it would have been enough for me to pass on the GS Sell.  In any case, they are both pointing up, for now.
 
Allan’s recently launched newsletter, “Trend Following Trading Model,” goes with the trading system he’s been working on for years. His trend-following method is chart-based and objective. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction to the Trend Following Trading Model newsletter and trading system, read this introductory article. - Ilene  
 
And while I’m at it, here’s the newest free download from Elliott Wave International:
 
 

The How to Spot Trading Opportunities eBook features 47-pages of easy-to-understand trading techniques that help you identify high-confidence trade setups. Senior EWI Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy shows you how some of the simplest rules and guidelines can be used as powerful trading tools.  Created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, this valuable eBook is offered free until April 23, 2010.  

Go here to download it now.


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Phil's Favorites

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Zero Hedge

Students Don't Vote Absentee Because "They Don't Know Where To Get Stamps," Study Shows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite all of the "activism " taking place on college campuses (activism that is tantamount to harassment of individuals who don't agree with SJW orthodoxy), voting apparently isn't a high priority for many modern students, who are apparently too busy checking their Instagram to figure out where they can buy a stamp to send in their absentee ballots.

...



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ValueWalk

Ray Dalio On The Basics Of Debt Crises

By Sweeny Kumar. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The 2008 financial crisis resulted in enormous failures for both individual and institutional investors. There were not many investors who were able to navigate through the crisis calmly and without great losses. Those who did knew the fundamental basics about how debt crises work.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Therefore, learning how to maneuver future debt crises is extremely critical for all investors, no matter how b...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Connect Series Webinar September 2018

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We cover dominating patterns in major global Indices, sectors, commodities and the metals markets.  We produce chart pattern analysis and empower people to improve entry and exit points.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.

...

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Insider Scoop

Discovery Communications' 20% Gain Difficult To Justify, Pivotal Says In Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DISCA Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2018 A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futur...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’? ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 09, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

We wrote in last week’s recap:  “One would think the indexes are a bit extended short term”.  And indeed, a rest and consolidation occurred as both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ pulled back to their 20 day moving averages.  (The Russell 2000 did as well but it was not overextended going into the week)

Friday President Trump said the U.S. had tariffs ready to go on another $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of tariffs on $200 billion in goods the administration is now preparing.

“I think investors were hopeful that we clearly made progress with Mexico [on trade] and Canada seemed to be within a line of sight…and I think investors were saying ‘Maybe we won’t get the fireworks with China and clearly there is disappointment, right now,” said Dia...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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