Posts Tagged ‘TSRA’

Options Strategists Take the Wheel at Ford Motor Co.

 Today’s tickers: F, NKE, TSRA, PCX, STI, CSCO & SNDK

F - Ford Motor Co. – A couple of large-volume spreads initiated in longer-dated call and put options on the automaker caught our eye this afternoon. Shares in Ford Motor Company increased 0.90% this afternoon to stand at $17.00 in the final minutes of the trading day. It looks like one bullish player employed the use of a debit call spread in the April 2011 contract while a more cautious investor utilized a ratio put spread expiring in June of 2011. The options optimist picked up 10,000 calls at the April 2011 $17 strike for a premium of $1.25 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher April 2011 $20 strike at a premium of $0.29 apiece, in order to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the car manufacturer’s shares. The trader paid a net premium of $0.96 per contract for the spread, and is positioned to make money should Ford’s shares rally another 5.6% over the current price of $17.00 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $17.96 by expiration day in April. Maximum potential profits of $2.04 per contract are available to the call-spreader if Ford’s shares jump 17.6% to first surpass the current 52-week high of $17.42 on the stock, and ultimately trade above $20.00 ahead of expiration. Further along in the June 2011 contract, another strategist dabbled in put options, perhaps as a way to hedge a long position in the underlying shares through the first half of 2011, or alternatively to bet on a pullback in Ford’s shares. It looks like the investor picked up 12,500 puts at the June $17 strike at a premium of $1.63 each, and sold 25,000 puts at the lower June 2011 $14 strike for a premium of $0.54 a-pop. The trader paid a net $0.55 per contract for the ratio spread and starts making money if Ford’s shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $16.45 ahead of June expiration. The investor may walk away with maximum potential profits of $2.45 per contract in the event that the automaker’s shares plunge 17.6% to settle at $14.00 at expiration day. Selling twice…
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Wonderful Weekly Wrap-Up

I love it when a plan comes together! 

Last week, I felt like I was going to have to call Animal Control to help me fight off the bears.  As I mentioned in last week's Wrap-Up, all 14 misses (out of 55 trade ideas for the week) we had were bullish plays that we were grabbing on the way down.  On Friday we went bullish on USO, SSO, DIA, TBT (well, we're always bullish on TBT), AET, ABX, Copper Futures and even poor BP.  Those followed up on bullish plays we had taken on Thursday on TSRA, USO, MEE, FCX, EEM, ERX and XOM.  We went into the weekend still bearish but we were excited about flipping back to bullish.  My closing comment in the Wrap-Up was: " I’m hoping for a blow-off spike down on Monday with heavy volume, hopefully followed by a recovery over the next few days" and, gosh darn it, wouldn't you know that's EXACTLY what we got.

I don't MAKE the markets do these things, I simply tell you what is going to happen and how you can make money on it…  Needless to say, we had a LOT of fun this week at PSW!   Last weekend, however, was such a bearish frenzy in the MSM that it was making our Members nervous and THAT I do not tolerate so I wrote : "The Worst-Case Scenario:  Getting Real With Global GDP!" to illustrate why I felt our bottoms would hold and I began a Top 20 Buy List on Sunday and boy did we get some fabulous entries this week! 

Monday Market Movement – Will We Survive?

As I said on Monday Morning: "I already stuck my neck out calling a bottom so now we're just waiting patiently."  We were disappointed to have not gotten a stronger statement from the G20 over the weekend but it was just the Finance Ministers, so we weren't expecting too much until the big boys meet at the end of the month.  While we were in a buying mood, I cautioned against getting too bullish until we took back our anticipated "weak bounce" levels, which were the orange lines on Monday's Multi-Chart:

I pointed out (on another Multi-Chart) that Europe was already gathering strength so we were pretty confident things would go our way but, as I said in the …
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Fast and Furious Four-Day Wrap-Up

Wheeeee, what a ride!

Like any good car race, the lead changes often in the markets.  Yesterday the bears took the lead as the combination of Hungarian debt issues and a disappointing jobs number were like a tire blow-out for the bulls, who were forced to pull in for a pit stop.  Fortunately, we had our seat belts on and had assumed the crash position as I had warned Members on THURSDAY Morning at 10:04:

Watch that 666 line on the RUT – we don’t want to lose that or even show weakness there…  ISM a bit disappointing, now we’ll see what holds but I’m out of short-term, unhedged, upside plays here

I felt strongly enough about it that we also posted it on Seeking Alpha, to warn as many people as possible, under the heading: "Phil Calls Short-Term Top."  I don’t post live trade ideas on Seeking Alpha but in Premium Member Chat (and you can subscribe here) I followed right up at 10:17 Thursday morning with the following trade idea:

BGZ (large-cap bear) is at $15.27 and I like them as a hedge here with the (June) $14/16 bull call spread at .75, selling the July $14 puts for .95 and that’s a net .20 credit on the $2 spread with about $2.70 in margin so you can do a 10 contract spread for a $200 credit and $2,700 in margin (according to TOS standard) with a $2K upside if the market even twitches lower.  Worst case is you own BGZ as a hedge to a dip below Dow 10,600 (your put-to area) at net $13.80 (9% lower than current price).

That’s what hedged trade ideas look like in our Member Chat.  At PSW, you need to put some time in LEARNING how to trade and, more importantly, how to hedge.  This is a fairly complicated options play but we take it BECAUSE IT WORKS!  There are many, many simpler ways to play that don’t work (or carry far more risk) but we prefer to teach our Members how to do the things that do work.  As it stands, just 48 hours later, BGZ is up 10% on Friday to $16.89 (so the spread is now 100% in the money) and June $14/16 bull call spread is now $1.50 while the July $14 puts are Down to .60 so net .90 already on the spread that already paid
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Frightening Friday – Halloween Edition!

Wheee what a day! 

Who said we placed a spread bet on the Dow moving 200 points one way or another in yesterday's morning post?  Me, that's who.  And how much did the Dow move yesterday?  199.89 points.  OK, so I was wrong by .11 but our plays worked out just fine and we flipped bearish again as we flew up and we'll see if my streak continues this week.  We would have gone more aggressivley bearish but we were worried about end of the month (and end of the year for many hedge funds) window dressing that would keep things going for one more day.

Everything went according to plan and we got the bounces we were looking for but the RUT failed to retake 589, which was our canary in the coal mine's breakdown level from last week.  As I alerted members at 12:15, that and the Qs failing to hold 42 into the close, which failed to confirm the Nas move over our 2,088 watch level.  We have our DIA puts, we have our SRS longs, we have our DXD longs (which are half price as our DDMs paid off yesterday) and we shorted SPG into the close as Cap noted they had a ridiculous run-up ahead of today's earnings. 

As I said to members in the afternoon, my gut said to go more bearish but we allowed ourselves to be spooked by Mr Stick in the afternoon and ended up about 55% bearish with a 1/2 cover of our long DIA puts but we already made a quick 20% on the sale of short puts in the morning so it's a position we had a little slack in going into the close.  Our logic is, even if we have another up day today, we're still going to want some pretty serious coverage into the weekend unless the Russell and the Qs can confirm this move up today. 

Bulls should be spooked by the fact that a blow-out GDP report, showing an economy with a HUGE turnaround and the President crowing on TV about how great things are going could ONLY erase 1/2 the losses we suffered since last week.  Another market move I hit on the head yesterday was my prediction that, after 3 consecutive 1.8% down days in a row, the Hang Seng would jump
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Phil's Favorites

Bloomberg Has Built a Star Wars Machine to Try to Steal the Democratic Nomination

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Michael Bloomberg

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is used to getting his way. After serving two terms as New York City’s Mayor as a Republican, he used his own vast stash of cash to repeal term limits and give himself another four-year term, running as an Independent. Now he has promised to do the unprecedented: spend $1 billion of his own money to install himself as President of the United States, running on the Democratic ticket.

Bloomberg’s campaign increasingly resembles an octopus with money gushing out of its tentacles into anything and everything that will inject Mic...



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Zero Hedge

China Stocks Surge, S&P Futs Hit All Time High On Latest Chinese Monetary Stimulus

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

European stocks rose on Monday, Chinese shares surged, recovering all their post-coronavirus losses and S&P and Nasdaq futures jumped to new all time highs as investors took encouragement from the Asian country’s monetary (if not fiscal) pledges to support the world’s second-biggest economy in the face of the coronavirus outbreak. The yen and gold both slipped.

...



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Insider Scoop

AMX Buys Fellow Alabama Company Powell, Adds Reefer Capacity

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alabama Motor Express will push deeper into the refrigerated business with purchase of Powell Transport Solutions.

The acquisition, announced earlier this week, will bring 35 refrigerated trailers to AMX, the company said in a statement. A spokeswoman for AMX, in response to questions submitted by FreightWaves, said the company's business is currently about 10% refrigerated. The AMX fleet before the acquisition was 210 trailers, she said.

Powell's business is 100% refrigerated, according to the...



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Biotech & Health

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

 

Coronavirus: the blow to the Chinese economy could be felt for years

Courtesy of Chusu He, Coventry University

Investors are still being fairly complacent about the novel coronavirus. After the number of new daily cases suddenly shot up to more than 15,000 on February 12 following more than a week of decline, there were some jitters in the markets. With Chinese authorities saying the increase was due to a decision to broaden the definition for diagnosing people, there were falls in the region of 1% in European markets, and smaller retrenchments in Asia and North America.

It is...



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Members' Corner

How to Stop Bill Barr

 

How to Stop Bill Barr

We must remove this cancer on our democracy.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

...



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The Technical Traders

Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices. It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock
market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unloc...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Joe Friday Says Germany (DAX) Could Rally 30%, Happy Valentines Day For The Bulls!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

German DAX Index “weekly” Chart

The German DAX is one of the more important global stock market indices, as it represents the largest economy / market in the Euro Zone.

So it would be a real treat for the bulls to see this stock market index breakout as we celebrate Valentine’s Day.

The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts; The German DAX looks to have formed a bullish ascending triangle over the past 3 years and it is currently attempting to breakout above the top at (1)....



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ValueWalk

Russell 2000 Index (RUT) hits an almost one-month high

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ad the Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, commenting on today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) Outperforms Large-Cap Benchmarks

While the overnight session was nothing short of scary stocks held on to most of yesterday's gains and small-caps even extended their winning streak. The Russell 2000 Index (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) hit an almost one-month high today, finishing higher for the fourth day in a row while outperforming the large-cap benchmarks, and since the Volatility...



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Chart School

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.

Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned wi...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Price May Hit $27K All-Time High By Summer, Predicts Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin is primed for average gains of almost 200% over the next six months, one of its best-known supporters has told mainstream media. 

...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.