Posts Tagged ‘TTH’

Monday Market Movement – Can We Go It Alone?

It’s lonely out there in Stock Land today

Everybody’s closed today except Japan and they are so thrilled with 94.5 Yen to the dollar that you can’t figure anthing out by watching their market add another 53 points this morning to finish the day at 11,339 but it was well off the gap up open at 11,400.  As I mentioned in the Weekend Wrap-Up, where we discussed our Super-Secret Strategy for making money off this nonsense – just because a rally is totally propped up BS doesn’t mean it isn’t, technically, a rally – does it?

With everyone else closed, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hit 19-month highs and copper climbed to $3.62 in overnight trading (when there were no traders) and gold hit $1,130 while oil hovered around $85.50 so we can infer that commodities are very, very popular with vacationing traders.  Asian traders were excited about our jobs numbers – obviously they didn’t read my analysis on Friday:

Overall, we are seeing positive signs about the global economy,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which manages $111 billion. “While developing nations are leading global growth, they are waiting for the U.S. to rebound. Recent reports are suggesting that the U.S. labor market and consumer spending are improving.”

Consumer spending is certainly improving at the Apple Store with 700,000 IPads going out the door in 48 hours, bringing AAPL an estimated $500,000,000 in revenues over the weekend.  I was in the NY Apple Store this weekend and there were about 200 IPads on display with lines 3-4 deep of people very patiently waiting considering the average person who touched one held on for a good half hour.  Keep in mind that the IPads that are selling now are limited Wi-Fi only models – the good, 3G ones don’t come out for another couple of weeks!

So, based on 2 days of sales, we can project AAPL selling $175Bn worth of IPads this year and that will make AAPL worth about a Trillion dollars, which is very likely to boost the Nasdaq back to 5,000…  OK, that may be a bit of an over-statement but we still cannot ignore the Apple effect on the market because it does look like they are going to move a tremendous amount of IPads this year and that will be good for chip
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Weekly Wrap Up – Cash Out Edition

How did I reach my breaking point on Friday?

Well, I haven’t been happy about the action for the whole month of March and this week was simply the last straw, where I feel the risk of being long now outweighs the likely rewards.  Even all the bullish analysts in 12 of 13 of our beloved IBanks are "only" projecting the S&P to gain another 7.5% for the year.  That’s not even 1% a month so excuse me if I decide it’s time to take a 7th inning stretch after we’re already up 70% of 77.5% projected over 2 years.  As I said when reviewing our Buy List, where we are closing out 22 of 37 stocks – you just aren’t supposed to make an average of 28% with 64 winners on 66 picks in 6 weeks – it gets to a point where it’s just foolish not to cash out and take a rest.  

Make sure you check out our latest round of Disaster Hedges as well, "5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" is a good way to keep your toes in the water!  In last Weekend’s Wrap-Up I was "Still Trying to Get Bullish" and I was wrestling with killing the Buy List then - doing the full review this week is what killed it for me because - if I go over the fundamentals of 37 of my favorite stocks and can’t see more than 15 plays I’m enthusiastic about keeping – then it’s a good bet I’m not going to be too wild about the rest of the market either. 

If I were a real bear, this would be great and I’d just be running around yelling SELLSELLSELL but I am, believe it or not, a generally bullish guy who prefers to play an up market but I am also realistic enough not to fall so in love with my positions or bullish premise that I don’t know when it’s time to give things a rest.  We haven’t had a proper pullback, we haven’t had good volume to the upside (Barron’s raised that concern this weekend) and we haven’t addressed many, many problems that are still out there. 

Monday Morning – Moody’s Makes More Negative Noises

Moody’s got us off to a fun start on Monday morning, saying the US and UK are "substantially" closer to losing their AAA credit ratings as the cost of servicing their debt rose – a statement
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Zero Hedge

Wildfires Are Coming For Wine, Weed, And Christmas 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

There are 86 large wildfires that have burned 1,498,205 acres in 12 US states and emit large quantities of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and dangerous particulate matter into the atmosphere this summer that could affect wine weed and Christmas. 

The West Coast fire season is off to a fiery start, and an abundance of smoke can destroy precious vineyards and damage the fruit. 

University of California Davis researchers say California's wine cou...



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Phil's Favorites

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem - here's what a social media expert recommends

 

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem – here’s what a social media expert recommends

Misinformation on social media is hindering efforts to vaccinate people against the coronavirus. Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

With less than half the United States population fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and as the delta variant sweeps the nation, the U.S. surgeon general issued an advisory that called misinformation ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem - here's what a social media expert recommends

 

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem – here’s what a social media expert recommends

Misinformation on social media is hindering efforts to vaccinate people against the coronavirus. Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

With less than half the United States population fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and as the delta variant sweeps the nation, the U.S. surgeon general issued an advisory that called misinformation ...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Chart School

Investing with Channels - Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The US has a lot of debt, to sell more units of the debt to non US buyers the FED and Treasury must get the unit price of the debt down.



This video assumes a 'risk on' bullish bias into the Nov 2022 US mid terms. The bias assumes a US dollar trending down from it current high price of $93 on the DXY.






 


 




Chart 1 - US Dollar Channels




 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


 



...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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