Posts Tagged ‘TWM’

Weekend Wipe Out – All the Way Back to Mid-November Lows!

Well I hate to say I told you so but

No wait, that's nonsense – what market prognosticator doesn't love to say "I told you so"?  Actually, it's kind of my job to tell you so and the reason I'm so popular is because, more often than not, when I tell you so, I tend to be right.   I'm not right all the time and my single biggest flaw is I am often right but sometimes way too early and timing is EVERYTHING in the markets.  It's not good enough to tell you what is going to happen (give things enough time and everything happens eventually, right Cramer?) - I need to get the period right as well so we can turn it into an actionable trading idea that makes money

As a fundamentalist, I didn't like the entire last 500 points of the rally.  I had predicted the market would finish the year at 10,200 way back when it was down at 8,650 when the idea was we'd have a Santa Clause rally to 20% (10,380) and then a 20% pullback of that run (346) into Jan earnings that would take us back to 10,034 so the entire run from 10,200 to 10,700 REALLY annoyed me.  It didn't annoy me just because it made me wrong – I'm wrong a lot and I'm old enough to have learned how to deal with it.  What annoyed me was the manipulation as, clearly, the fundamentals in no way, shape or form justified the additional 5% move up. 

I've gone on and on about how fake the move was and how manipulated the markets were and how artificial the support was and I think I've pulled out the Seinfeld "fake, Fake, FAKE" clip often enough now that I don't even have to do a link (but I love it, so I do) or explain how it's a metaphor for recent market activity so I'm not going to waste our valuable time here.  Let's just do a review of the recent action, which is my best way of preparing for the upcoming Members only post where I'll be charting out new levels and coming up with action plans for the week ahead. 

So don't read this if you can't stand to hear "I told you so" because this is the review post and I did tell you so!

When did
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 5

Well this has been annoying

After 30 days of trading our current virtual portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up.  Fortunately, we didn't lose our cool and rode it out.  In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn't been much to report and there still isn't but the end of our first month is a good time for an update.  Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money

We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we're letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we'll see if we finally get the bargains we've been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays.  For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch virtual portfolio, we've been following Warren Buffett's Investing Rule #1:  Don't lose money!

Description Price Paid Last Price Qty Market Value Margin Req. Profit Loss %
AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 $6.30 $5.50 -1 $550.00 $1,196.20 $80.00 12.70%
On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait.
AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 $3.60 $2.80 -10 $2,800.00 $16,127.50 $800.00 22.22%
We wouldn't do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90
BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 $8.60


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




$101,674 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 3

Slow and steady wins the race! 

We had a big run and capped our gains a little early for the week by doubling up on our PSQ (short Nasdaq) calls on Thursday's mad run.  This did the job of locking in our profits but that hedge is now making up $450 of losses, which is 1/3 of all our losses for the month.  Still we managed to gain $396 for the week with still just $28,537 in positions so that's another 1% for the week, a pretty good clip

I am happy to say that our $100K Virtual Portfolio is now live and available on WallStreetSurvivor.com at:

 
 
We're actually well ahead of our cash goal as we also have $86,101 in cash along with our $28,537 in positions with $13,768 in margin devoted to some of the longer hedges we've sold.  That leaves us with $147,935 in margin buying power and we're going to use it to do a few "stupid option tricks" into expirations that should pick us up a little extra cash over the next 5 days and Wednesday or Friday we must expect to make our rolling moves for the current month and I'll be sending out Alerts to Members later in the week.  For now, we are very happy with all of our current positions as we have 16 winners and just 7 losers – that's very good for a well-hedged virtual portfolio
 
There are only 6 September contracts for us to worry about and Wednesday would be the earliest day we need to make adjustments on those so we'll concentrate today on things we can make money on tomorrow.  The easiest was to start is to look at some stocks we may want to own for October and take a stab at selling some naked puts on them as we won't be too upset if they get put to us or we'll be happy to pocket the cash if they aren't.  We already sold the MHP October puts from last week's Watch List but we haven't filled the others.  As with those plays, we're not interested


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Over 80% Of Dutch Support Restrictions On Muslim Women's Clothing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In August a Danish law came into force banning face-covering veils, and as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, the move to ban burqas or niqabs has proven highly controversial and divisive.

There were protests when the law came into force and the Scandinavian country experienced an extensive debate on whether it was discriminatory ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

 

Animal Spirits: Borrowing From the Future

Courtesy of 

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss:

$250 trillion in debt

Dalio could lose 1% a day for a year and still be worth $400 million

...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

Tilson Says TLRY Is Like Cryptos, 3D Printing, A Bubble About To Burst

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s additional comments on the hottest new stock TLRY. Excerpted from an email to colleagues.

A quick follow-up to my email this morning:

1) After seeing my comments on Tilray (TLRY) in my email earlier today, Yahoo Finance invited me on their afternoon streaming video show, The Final Round, where I:

  • Heaped scorn on this obvious bubble stock, saying it’s overvalued by at least 10x, maybe even 100x
  • Compared it to cryptocurrency, 3D printing, and alternative power ...


more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver & Gold- Best buy point in 25-Years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years.  Historically when the ratio is heading higher it sends a message to be long and strong Gold & Silver.

When the ratio is heading lower, historically it’s been a great time to avoid Gold & Silver. The ratio has been heading lower since the highs back in 2011, suggesting it’s not the time to buy and hold Silver & Gold.

The decline in the ratio over the past 7-years has it currently testing the 1995 lows as well as a potential support line at (2).

Best time to buy Silver & Gold in the past 25-years? T...



more from Kimble C.S.

Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Flat Ahead Of Housing Starts, Current Account Data

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded mostly flat in early pre-market trade. Data on housing starts for August and the current account report for the second quarter will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1 point to 26,273.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures traded declined 2 points to 2,909.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 1.5 point to 7,523.

Oil prices traded ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’? ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>