Posts Tagged ‘TWTR’

$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
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TGIF – Can We Stop The Week Before Our Indexes Fail?

Look at the Russell!  

Look at the Nasdaq!  Are you seriously still holding onto your Dow, S&P and NYSE stocks?  That's exactly what people did in 2008, when they were so used to the markets being saved whenever they dipped, that they ignored all the warning signs – until it was too late.  

I know that I've been sounding like a broken record and you can call me Chicken Little but cut me a little slack as we are protecting profits here.  

We have 5 virtual porfolios we track for our Members and the $100,000 Butterfly Portfolio is up 19.4% ($19,000), the $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio is up 9.6% ($48,000), the $100,000 Portfolio is down 5.8% ($5,800), the $500,000 Income Portfolio is up 6.4% ($32,000) and our $25,000 Portfolio is up 15.4% ($3,850).  Overall, that's a gain of 8.8% on $1.225M deployed in 4 months.  

SPY 5 MINUTEThe Short-Term Portfolio is a hedge to the Long-Term Portfolio, so we haven't cashed those in but the Income Portfolio doesn't have an external hedge, so we moved to cash on that one last month (BEFORE the Nas and Rut started crashing off decade highs) and the Butterfly Portfolio is self-hedging while the $25KP has just one position left.  

Perhaps I'm wrong and the Nasdaq and the Russell will recover and the other indexes will all move up to new highs.  Even if they do, our worst case is we miss a bit of a rally.  If we're breaking out to new all-time highs from here – there will be plenty of money to be made.  BUT – if I'm right and the market drops 5-10%, then our taking 110% off the table at the top means that when we buy stocks again at 90%, we are buying 120% of what we could have bought had we not wisely cashed out in the rally.  

NDX WEEKLYThe REWARD for being cautious is owning 20% more shares if we're right, owning maybe 2.5% less shares if we're wrong or owning the same amount if the market stays flat.  It doesn't take a degree in statistical analysis to see why I
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FB, TWTR Shares Under Pressure

When shares in Facebook reached their post-IPO low of $17.55 in September of 2012, the stock touched a price-to-sales (P/S) low of roughly 6.0. But its loss of face was more than made up for by its subsequent 230% rally in the 20 months since, leaving FB stock trading at $57.50 today, or at approximately 15.5 times sales (calculated on a trailing twelve month basis).

Consider however, that in contrast, shares in Twitter, which traded up to a lofty P/S ratio in excess of 74x following its IPO in November, today trade at a P/S ratio of around 18x. TWTR shares, which today trade down roughly 3.0% at $31.00 as of the time of this writing, have dropped nearly 60% from a post-IPO high of $74.73. Using the current TTM sales per share for Twitter of $1.67, consider a hypothetical situation in which shares of Twitter continue to drop and reach a P/S ratio as low as that experienced by Facebook in September of 2012. Under those conditions, shares in Twitter would find a bottom at approximately $10.00, or nearly 70% below the current level.

Of course, the key word above was “hypothetical.” No telling what is in store for Twitter or Facebook, though both stocks are under pressure again today. Shares in Twitter found favor after its IPO but now face potential competition from perhaps the world’s largest IPO by Alibaba, which conceivably runs the risk of crowding out some Internet names should tech investors sell the old to buy the new.  


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Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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Twitter Call Spread Trades Amid Dip In Share Price

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are sliding today, down as much as 8.0% to $63.50 during morning trading on a downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight with a price target unchanged at $33.00 at Morgan Stanley. The stock has since bounced off the lows to trade down less than 5.0% on the session at $65.68 as of 11:35 a.m. EST.

Activity in the 21 Feb ’14 expiry call options caught our attention today, with the $75/$85 call spread trading more than 14,000 times within the first two hours of the opening bell. It looks like the spread is being purchased at an average premium of $2.20 each. The bullish trade makes money if shares in Twitter rally 17.5% over the current price of $65.68 to exceed the average breakeven point at $77.20 by expiration, with maximum potential profits of $7.80 per contract available in the event of a 30% upside move in the share price to $85.00 during the next six weeks. 


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Twitter Shares In ‘Retweet’ On Analyst Downgrades

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are in negative territory today, moving lower after rallying four of the past five trading sessions amid downgrades to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at SunTrust Robinson and ‘Underperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Wells Fargo. The stock traded up to a new all-time high of $60.24 during morning trading, but currently stand 3.0% lower on the session at $57.25 as of 11:45 a.m. EST.

Trading in far out of the money TWTR call options expiring next week suggests some traders are positioning for the price of Twitter’s shares to move substantially higher before the end of the calendar year. Upwards of 5,000 of the 27 Dec ’13 $70 strike calls changed hands by midday in New York against zero open interest. Time and sales data suggests most of the calls were likely purchased at premiums of $0.50, $0.65 and $0.80 per contract. Call buyers may see the value of these contracts increase if shares in Twitter rebound and resume hitting fresh highs prior to expiration.

Overall options volume on Twitter is above the stock’s average daily reading, with around 118,000 contracts traded by midday versus TWTR’s average daily options volume of around 110,000 contracts. 

RY – Royal Bank of Canada – Options on Royal Bank of Canada are more active than usual today amid heavy trading in Jan ’14 expiry put options. Shares in RBC are on the rise, up 1.8% on the session at $65.55 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York trading amid reports the Canadian bank may be considering a spinoff of parts of its proprietary trading business.

The most traded options contracts on the stock are the Jan ’14 $65 strike puts, with upwards of 3,000 lots in play against open interest of 1,945 contracts. It looks like most of the puts were purchased roughly one hour into the trading day at a premium of $1.15 each. The contracts may be profitable at expiration next month in the event that the price of the underlying slips 2.6% from the current price of $65.55 to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $63.85. 


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Visa Call Options Look For Rebound

V – Visa, Inc. – Shares in Visa are moving lower today, declining as much as 2.5% to $199.93 during morning trading after a large block of 8 million Visa shares priced at $201.25 was reportedly sold via JPMorgan. Upside call options changing hands on the global payment company, however, suggest one or more traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to make a quick recovery.

The Dec 06 ’13 $205 strike calls have traded more than 1,300 times so far today against open interest of 822 contracts. Some of the volume appears to have been purchased in the early going at a premium of $0.45 each. Traders long the calls at a premium of around $0.45 per contract may profit at expiration this week if shares in Visa rally 1.6% over the current price of $202.24 to exceed the breakeven point at $205.45. The stock is now off the lowest levels of the session; intraday gains in the price of the underlying has lifted the value of the weekly $205 strike calls to $0.67 each as of the time of this writing. 

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Weekly options changing hands on Twitter this morning look for shares in the name to continue to regain ground during the next few trading sessions and potentially reach the highest level since November 21st ahead of the weekend. Shares in TWTR are up 0.50% on the session at $40.98 just after 11:00 a.m. EST.

The most traded contracts on Twitter thus far in the session are the Dec 06 ’13 $42 calls, with roughly 7,600 calls in play against open interest of 837 contracts. A large proportion of the $42 calls traded appear to have been purchased within the first 10 minutes of the opening bell at a premium of $0.40 each. Traders long the calls stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that Twitter’s shares rise 3.5% over the current level of $40.98 to exceed the breakeven price of $42.40. 


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Twitter Options In Focus As Shares Hit Post-IPO Low

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter slipped 5.4% to a new post-IPO low of $38.80 on Monday morning, sparking mixed trading in weekly options on the stock. Overall volume in Twitter options is a little less than half of the stock’s average daily volume, with around 42,000 contracts traded as of midday in New York. Put options are more active than calls, with the put/call ratio nearing 2.3 as of the time of this writing.

Of those contracts that expire at the end of the shortened trading week, the Nov 29 ’13 $39.5 strike puts attracted the most volume. Upwards of 3,600 of the $39.5 strike puts have changed hands so far against open interest of 333 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased this morning at a premium of $0.60 each. Traders long the puts stand ready to profit at expiration this week in the event that shares in TWTR decline roughly 0.75% from the current price of $39.20 to trade below the breakeven price of $38.90.

Meanwhile, looking out to the Dec 06 ’13 expiry contracts, upside call buying indicates other traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound in the near term. One strategist appears to have purchased roughly 1,000 of the Dec 06 ’13 $40 strike puts at a premium of $1.00 each. The bullish position makes money at expiration next week if TWTR shares rally 4.5% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point at $41.00. 


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BBY Options Active Ahead Of Q3 Earnings

BBY – Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy have slipped into negative territory in the final hour of trading on Monday, with the stock down 0.20% at $43.62 as of 3:20 p.m. EST, ahead of the electronics retailer’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell tomorrow.

Nov 22 ’13 expiry options are active ahead of the quarterly earnings release, with interest rising in both call and put options. One strategist appears to be taking the view that shares in the name will rally to fresh 52-week highs this week, buying a 1,000-lot Nov 22 ’13 $44/$48 call spread at a net premium of $1.23 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in Best Buy rally 3.7% over the current price to exceed the breakeven point at $45.23. Maximum potential profits of $2.77 per contract are available on the bull call spread in the event that BBY shares surge 10% to $48.00 by expiration this week. BBY shares are up roughly 200% since this time last year.  

Overall options volume on Best Buy is approaching 35,000 contracts in the final 30 minutes of trading, which is roughly 165% of the stock’s average daily volume of around 20,700 contracts. Puts are trading more heavily than calls, with the put/call ratio up above 1.2 as of the time of this writing. 

TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are on the decline today, slipping 2.8% to $42.73 during the first half of the session after the stock was rated new ‘Sell’ with a 12-month target share price of $34.00 at Wunderlich Securities. Options on Twitter, which began trading on Friday, are active today, with volume nearing…
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Agilent Options Active As Shares Hit Highest Since ’01

A – Agilent Technologies, Inc. – Shares in the provider of measurement solutions and technology are soaring today, up as much as 10% during morning trading to $55.74, the highest level since January of 2001, after the company posted better than expected fourth-quarter earnings following the closing bell on Thursday.

Trading in Agilent options suggests some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains this calendar year. The most traded options contracts as measured by volume on Agilent Technologies thus far in the session are the Dec $57.5 strike calls, with around 2,850 lots in play against open interest of just 30 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the volume was purchased earlier in the session at a premium of $0.50 each. Buyers of the $57.5 calls may profit at expiration next month if shares in Agilent rally 4.0% over today’s high of $55.74 to exceed the breakeven price of $58.00. 

TWTR – Twitter Inc. – Options on newly public San Francisco, California-based Twitter Inc. started trading this morning, giving traders and investors the ability to take short and long-term views on where they see the price of the company's shares trading. Contracts with more than two years to expiration are available as well as call and put options that expire next week. More than 15,000 contracts changed hands on TWTR within the first 15 minutes of the opening bell.

Shares in Twitter, which rallied more than 90% on their first day of trading to touch $50.09, nearly two times the $26.00 level at which shares were priced, are today down roughly 0.75% at $44.35 as of 9:45 a.m. EST. Early trading in TWTR options indicates greater volume in Twitter puts versus calls, with the put/call ratio at 1.2 as of the time of this writing. 


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Zero Hedge

Stocks, Yuan Tumble As Trade-Talks Hit Snag

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Having ramped since the cash market open to run the stops over last week's highs, US equity markets are suddenly tumbling on reports that US-China trade talks have hit a snag over farm purchases...

China is also resisting US requests for tech-transfer curbs and any enforcement mechanism.

The market is not happy...

And the timing is perfect having run the stops and run out of squeeze ammo...

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The Technical Traders

Great Cycles Article PG 9 in TradersWorld Mag - Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

  1. How to Use Price Cycles and Profit as a Swing Trader
  2. Geodetics and the Affairs of Men – USA, and China
  3. Cosmological Economics
  4. Time Machine
  5. Trading Means Pr...


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Phil's Favorites

Below-Average Bull Market

 

Below-Average Bull Market

Courtesy of 

My Chart o’ the Day comes from LPL’s Ryan Detrick, who notes that:

Many consider this bull market the greatest ever, given it has incredibly lasted more than 10 years. But in terms of magnitude, many would be surprised to hear that the 357% gain during this bull market is still beneath the record 417% gain seen during the 1990s.

This bull market also isn’t the strongest in history in terms of gains, even though it has lasted longer than any other bull market…On an annualized return basis, this bull market has gained 15.3%, which is actual...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Upbeat On Skyworks' Fundamentals

Courtesy of Benzinga

Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS) reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenues, but the stock is slipping in reaction to the year-over-year declines in both metrics.

The Analysts

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya reiterated an Underperform rating and $92 price target for Skyworks shares. (See his track record ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann and Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold has performed well, golden skies are here again. In fact it has been a straight line move, and this is typically unusual and a pause can be expected.

It seems the markets are happy again, new highs in the SP500, US 10 year interest rates look to re bound, negative interest may soften. The US FED has reversed their QT and now doing $250BN (not QE) repo. The main point is the FED has stopped QT, and will do QE forever. The evidence now is the FED put is under market risk and the possibility of excessive losses do not exist. 

Point: If in future if there is market risk, the FED will print it's way out of it.
Subject To: In this blog view. The above is so until the amount required rocks confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency.&n...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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