Posts Tagged ‘unemployment claims’

Ping-Pong Seasonal Madness In Weekly Jobs Claims; How to Predict Whether the 4-Week Moving Average Will Rise or Fall

Courtesy of Mish

Weekly unemployment claims have been all over the map recently. Here are the seasonally-adjusted Weekly Unemployment Claims totals for the last 5 weeks.

Jan 27, 454,000
Jan 20, 403,000
Jan 13, 447,000
Jan 06, 411,000
Dec 30, 388,000

The first three numbers above are from the current report. I calculated the January 6, number. The December 30 number is from the archives.

The reported seasonally-adjusted number on January 6 reporting was 409,000. It was revised up but no one saw that revision.

The reason no one can easily spot revisions is the weekly report only gives the latest 3 weeks. I calculated January 6th number from the 4-week moving average, now reported as 428,750.

A similar calculation looking at the January 20 Weekly Claims Report shows that December 30, was revised up from 388,000 to 391,000. These are small revisions but even large ones would be hard to spot if you do did not do the math or go to the archives.

Computing the Missing Number and Hidden Revisions 

The 4-week moving average is constructed from the current 4 weeks. However the report only shows 3 weeks. To compute the week not shown, take the 4-week moving average (SA) and multiply by 4. Subtract the last three weeks shown on the report. What remains is the hidden 4th week used to compute the 4-week moving average.

Moreover, the difference between that number and was was originally reported for that number is a hidden revision.

Gaming the 4-Week Moving Average

If you want to pace a bet on whether the 4-week moving average will rise or fall, you need to know the number to beat and how to calculate it.

The number to beat is the missing number (as described above), about to roll off. In this case, 411,000.

Assuming no revisions, a number higher than 411,000 will cause next week’s 4-week moving average to rise. A number below 411,000 will cause next week’s 4-week moving average to drop.

My guess is the 4-week moving average will rise next week and fall the following week when the January 13 of 447,000 rolls off the report.

Clearly, if you are attempting to predict such numbers, it is critical to look at the number about to roll off.

What’s With The Ping-Pong?

Revisions and hidden numbers aside, inquiring minds are asking about the ping-pong.…
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Weekly Claims Exceed Every Economist Forecast Second Consecutive Week; Easter Comes Twice A Year

Weekly Claims Exceed Every Economist Forecast Second Consecutive Week; Easter Comes Twice A Year

Job Fair Held For Harrah's Entertainment Properties In Las Vegas

Courtesy of Mish 

For the second straight week, unemployment claims exceeded the forecast of every economist in a Bloomberg survey. Please consider Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose Last Week

The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly increased last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market will take time to unfold.

Initial jobless applications increased by 24,000 to 484,000 in the week ended April 10, the highest level since Feb. 20, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. A Labor Department spokesman said the rise in claims was due more to administrative factors reflecting volatility around Easter than economic reasons.

Economists forecast claims would fall to 440,000 from a previously reported 460,000 the prior week, according to the median of 44 projections in a Bloomberg News survey.

The range of economist estimates was 415,000 to 451,000.
The reported number was 484,000.
Not one economist came within 33,000 claims.
The worst was off by 69,000.

To be fair, these estimates are not necessarily easy to game. Equally fair, every economist was off by a substantial amount. Is there a bearish economist in the group?

Easter Comes Twice A Year

Flashback April 8, 2010: According to a Bloomberg survey,economists expected unemployment claims to drop, instead claims rose by 18,000.

Economists forecast claims would fall to 435,000 from a previously reported 439,000 the prior week, according to the median of 47 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 420,000 to 450,000.

Easter is a difficult period to adjust for seasonal factors because it’s a floating holiday that doesn’t come at the same time each year, the government analyst said. Additionally, a state holiday in California on March 31 also complicated the tabulation of the data, he said.

Last week in Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise by 18,000 to 460,000, 4-Week Moving Average at 450,250 I pondered Easter complications …

If Easter is such a complication, why wouldn’t economists factor that in to their estimates? Did they not know when Easter was?

Regardless of the reason, all 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg were too optimistic. The most pessimistic forecast was 450,000 claims, the reported number was 460,000.

Last week, 47 out of 47 economists were overly optimistic and 44 out of 44…
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Jobless claims rise 7,000 to 480,000

Jobless claims rise 7,000 to 480,000

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Small Dip Seen In Unemployment Numbers, First Drop Since January

Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 12th came in at a seasonally-adjusted (SA) 480,000, which is a rise of 7,000 from the previous week.  This brings the 4-week SA average down to 467,500, the lowest in 15-months.  Clearly layoffs have receded.  However, hiring has yet to begin in earnest, so the employment situation remains weak.

Because of heavy seasonal adjustments at this time of year, I think we will have to wait until after the holiday season for a more meaningful change in the data.  For now, the scenario is in a holding pattern: slow but steady decline in new claims mixed with weak hiring environment and a high level of unemployment and underemployment means a weak recovery.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
 


 

Advance

 

 

 

Prior1

WEEK ENDING

Dec. 12

Dec. 5

Change

Nov. 28

Year


Initial Claims (SA)

480,000

473,000

+7,000

454,000

552,000

Initial Claims (NSA)

555,344

662,737

-107,393

457,707

629,867

4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

467,500

472,750

-5,250

480,750

535,250

 

Advance

 

 

 

Prior1

WEEK ENDING

Dec. 5

Nov. 28

Change

Nov. 21

Year


Ins. Unemployment (SA)

5,186,000

5,181,000

+5,000

5,470,000

4,356,000

Ins. Unemployment (NSA)

5,176,122

5,399,111

-222,989

4,791,751

4,378,273

4-Wk Moving Average (SA)

5,318,250

5,425,000

-106,750

5,542,500

4,208,250


Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)

3.9%

3.9%

0.0

4.1%

3.3%

Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)

3.9%

4.1%

-0.2

3.6%

3.3%

Source

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report – US Department of Labor

 


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Phil's Favorites

The Fed finds another kitchen sink to throw at us

 

The Fed finds another kitchen sink to throw at us

Courtesy of 

This morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking on the just-unveiled $2.3 trillion plan to get more money flowing throughout our shutdown economy.

The Fed’s dual mandate is stable prices and full employment. This morning we learned that another 6 million people have filed for unemployment insurance last week, which is on top of the 10 million cumulative from the previous two weeks. Small and midsize enterprises account for more than 40% of all economic activity and employment – so going directly to Main Str...



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COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

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Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

April 9, 2020 Update: More than 1.5 million people around the world have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and nearly 90,000 have died. In the U.S., the death toll surpassed 14,000 on Wednesday. Tuesday alone saw a record 1,858 deaths. So far, approximately 425,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19.

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Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Reverse Rally As Oil Slides Ahead Of Surge In Unemployment Claims

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

U.S. stock index futures dipped on Thursday, reversing a 3-day rally as investors braced for another staggering weekly jobless claims number, while European stocks clung to modest gains on the last trading day before the Easter holiday. Oil initially rose in the wake of Russia signaling readiness to cut output although US resistance to join the conversation has sparked concerns today's OPEC+ meeting could end up a major disappointment.

...



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Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

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The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

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When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

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While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

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The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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