Posts Tagged ‘unfavorable indications’

HAS THE TECH RUN TOPPED OUT?

HAS THE TECH RUN TOPPED OUT?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Merrill Lynch downgraded several semiconductor names this morning citing unfavorable cyclical trends and a normalization in inventory restocking.  The semis are tanking 3.5% on the report and many investors fear the inventory restocking that has powered much of the fundamental strength in the sector could be slowing.  The Merrill analysts wrote:

“We are downgrading our view on the sector given unfavorable indications from our cyclical framework. In particular, our industry model suggests that following a period of rapid replenishment of inventory and normalization of semi shipments to true consumption levels, inventories in the supply chain are approaching a level suggesting a modest overshoot versus equilibrium levels. While we see limited risk to near-term estimates, we think the longer this persists the greater the risk of a correction in the supply chain. Barring a sharp upturn in the global economies, this, in our view, renders the risk reward associated with ownership of chip stocks unattractive.”

semis

Notable Calls has more details:

In some ways, the firm thinks the current backdrop reflects a striking contrast to the conditions that prevailed at the time of Merrill’s upgrade. Specifically, at the time, supply chain inventories were at abnormally depressed levels, economic forecasts were poised to improve but as yet depressed, and indications of an inflection in electronic demand had just started to manifest themselves. Fast forward two quarters, and the picture looks completely different. To wit economic growth forecasts have trended higher, as have expectations of electronic demand growth, and supply chain inventories are perking above what they’d consider to be a normal equilibrium level. Last but not the least, sentiment around growth prospects for the group has also seen a marked improvement. Simply put, the ideal mixture of investor skepticism coupled with the potential for sharp upward revisions – which served as potent fuel for the semiconductor rally – no longer prevails. This then begs the question: What is the incentive to own chip stocks, esp. on the heels of a spectacular move up (SOX +83%) over the last 12 months?

For those looking for real world confirmation of the potential inventory adjustment being forecasted by Merrill’s industry model, the firm would point to indications from the Asia PC supply chain suggesting a material downward bias


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

China Set To Make History With Record Number Of Bond Defaults In 2019

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While China is bracing for what may be a historic D-Day event on December 9, when the "unprecedented" default of state-owned, commodity-trading conglomerate Tewoo with $38 billion in assets may take place, it has already been a banner year for Chinese bankruptcies.

According to Bloomberg data, China is set to hit another dismal milestone in 2019 when a record amount of onshore bonds are set to default, confirming that something is indeed cracki...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

NATO meeting: solidarity reinforced despite uncomfortable time for alliance to be in the spotlight

 

NATO meeting: solidarity reinforced despite uncomfortable time for alliance to be in the spotlight

Courtesy of Megan Dee, University of Stirling

Anniversaries are meant to be a celebration. They represent a moment of reflection – a marker, a milestone, a time to look back. And therein lies their biggest problem. For anniversaries have that unfortunate effect of turning any subject – be it a past event, a married couple, or indeed an international institution – into an object of intense scrutiny. For the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) celebrating its 70th anniversary in London on December 3-4, that scrutiny has come at an unfortunate time.

Founded in 1949 with the signing of the Washington Treaty, NATO at 70 represents one the longest-standi...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Homebuilders Nearing Crossroads at Pre-Financial Crisis Highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The latest leg higher for the bull market has been supported by a resilient U.S. economy that continues to climb a wall of worry.

And that theme has carried over to the stock market. This has helped stocks rise over 20 percent in 2019.

One core piece of the economy is the housing market. This shows up in sector ETFs like the Homebuilders (XHB).

After retesting the 2006 pre-financial crisis highs in early 2018, the Homebuilders fell sharply over throughout the year. But 2019 has been a different story (see chart below).

The rally in 2019 has helped the broader stock market move higher and has the Homebuilders testing their financial crisis highs once again at point (1).

...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Ibio Inc (NYSE: IBIO) shares surged 47.8% to $0.2778 on continued momentum after the company joined the manufacturing USA's tissue Biofabrication initiative.
  • Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTGX) shares climbed 44% to $6.75. On Tuesday, Protagonist Therapeutics announced results from mid-stage study of PTG-300 in transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.
  • Relmada Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: RLMD) gained 19.2% to $41.07. Relmada Therapeutics price...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Chinese Crypto Exchange IDAX Locks Cold Wallet As CEO "Goes Missing"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com

Chinese cryptocurrency exchange IDAX has suspended deposits and withdrawals after its CEO allegedly disappeared.

In a blog post on Nov. 29, IDAX, which earlier this week warned it was seeing a run on withdrawals, said the whereabouts of Lei Guorong were currently unkno...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 July 2019, 01:48:48 AM


 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





Comment:
FED has no ammo in the next crisis!


Date Found: Friday, 12 July 2019, 02:38:12 AM
 

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.





Comment:
YIP Corporate debt blows up when econ...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



more from Our Members

Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



more from Lee

The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



more from Tech. Traders

Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>