Posts Tagged ‘URBN’

Options Volume Pops At Urban Outfitters As Shares Hit Fresh 52-Week High

 

Today’s tickers: URBN, STT & SNDK

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Shares in Urban Outfitters gained the most in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday morning after the operator of retail brands Free People, Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters, posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and sales. The positive earnings surprise and an upgrade to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at William Blair & Co. sparked a more than 20% rally in the price of the underlying at the open to a new 52-week high of $37.65. Options traders positioning for further upside in the near term picked up out-of-the-money call options in the first hour of the session. The front month options are the most actively traded contracts on Urban at present. Volume is heaviest in the Sep. $37 strike call, where more than 1,700 lots changed hands against open interest of just 72 contracts. Buyers in the early going paid an average premium of $1.15 per contract for nearly 500 hundred of the $37 strike call options, while the bulk of the volume traded to the middle of the market. Several hundred upside call options were also purchased at the Sep. $38, $39 and $40 strikes, indicating some strategists are positioning for shares in the specialty retailer to extend gains during the next four weeks to expiration. Traders paid an average premium of $0.20 per contract for around 400 of the Sep. $40 strike calls. The bullish stance may pay off at expiration in the event URBN shares surge 7% over today’s high of $37.65 to top the average breakeven point at $40.20, the highest level for the stock since April 2010. All told, more than 20,000 options are in play on Urban Outfitters as of 11:45 a.m. New York time, roughly five times the stock’s average daily options volume of 4,060 contracts.

STT - State Street Corp. – The provider of investment management services popped up on our scanners early in the trading session after…
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Bullish Player Takes A Shine To Tiffany & Co.

Today’s tickers: TIF, URBN & RVSN

Options brief will resume March 14, 2012.

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – Shares in the high-end jeweler are up 0.70% at $69.24 today with one week to go before the New York, New York-based retailer reports fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell next Tuesday. A sizable bullish options trade initiated on Tiffany & Co. this morning suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to rally sharply in the near term. The trader appears to have purchased a roughly 3,500-lot April $70/$75 call spread for a net premium of $1.54 per contract. The position starts making money if shares in Tiffany rally another 3.3% to surpass the average breakeven price of $71.54, while maximum potential profits of $3.46 per contract are available in the event that the shares surge 8.3% to top $75.00 at expiration. TIF’s shares last traded above $75.00 back in mid-November.

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Bearish activity in the front month options on teen retailer Urban Outfitters indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to decline following the Company’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the final bell today. Shares in Urban currently trade 0.50% lower on the session at $29.35. One strategist appears to have purchased an 850-lot Mar. $28/$29 debit put spread for a net premium of $0.35 per contract. The trader may be taking an outright bearish stance on the retailer or could be hedging a long position in the underlying shares. Profits are available on the spread should shares in URBN decline 2.4% to…
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Calls See Possible Upside Moves For Urban Outfitters, Declines In Cablevision

Today’s tickers: URBN, CVC & TXT

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Options activity on the specialty retailer jumped on Wednesday morning as news of the CEO’s resignation saw shares in Urban Outfitters tumble more than 20.0% to an intraday low of $23.42. Trading in Urban call options outpaced that of puts in the first half of the session, and it looks like a number of strategists are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound in the near term. Investors poised to potentially benefit from a bounce in Urban’s shares scooped up more than 1,600 in-the-money calls at the Jan. $24 strike for an average premium of $0.74 each and another 1,800 calls at the Jan. $25 strike at an average premium of $0.52 apiece in the first couple of hours of the trading day. Call buyers may profit at expiration next week in the event that shares in URBN settle above the average breakeven points at $24.74 and $25.52, respectively. Similar positions were initiated out at the Feb. $25 strike, where more than 1,500 calls changed hands against open interest of just 2 contracts. Investors appear to have purchased the majority of the calls for an average premium of $0.84 apiece and may profit at expiration next month if shares in Urban Outfitters rally 6.5% over the stock’s current price of $24.27 to exceed the average breakeven point at $25.84. Meanwhile, relatively lighter put buyer action on the name indicates some traders are prepared in the event the shares extend losses. Options traders have exchanged nearly 35,000 contracts on URBN as of 12:20 PM in New York against overall open interest of 76,962 positions.

CVC - Cablevision Systems Corp. – The purchase of a large number of Cablevision Systems Corp.…
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Calls Covering Urban Outfitters On Trend With Options Strategists

Today’s tickers: URBN, DB, HPQ & MCHP

URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc. – Apparel and accessories retailer Urban Outfitters popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner due to heavy trading traffic in near-term calls. Shares in the battered stock gained 4.3% in early-afternoon trade to stand at $24.56 by 12:10 pm EDT. The price of the underlying was pummeled in 2011, nearly halving from a 52-week high of $39.26 in March down to a two-year low of $21.47 on October 4. Shares are up 14.0% off their October low, and call buyers in the October contract stand to reap the benefits of potential bullish movement in the price of the underlying during the seven trading sessions that remain to expiration. Retail sales figures due out at the end of this week may help of hinder URBN’s recovery.

Trading traffic in Urban call options is heaviest at the Oct. $26 strike call, where more than 3,100 contracts changed hands against previously existing open interest of 1,359 positions. It looks like most of the calls were purchased by one investor for an average premium of $0.15 a-pop. The trader profits at expiration in the event that UBRN’s shares surge 6.5% over the current price of $24.56 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $26.15. Shares in the apparel retailer last traded above $26.15 at the beginning of September.

DB - Deutsche Bank AG – Shares in Deutsche Bank joined those of European and American banks in rallying strongly on optimism Slovakian lawmakers will ultimately ratify the rescue fund plan. DB’s shares are up…
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Options In Play On Retailers Supervalu, OfficeMax And Urban Outfitters

     Today’s tickers: SVU, OMX & URBN

SVU - SUPERVALU Inc. – The sale of a massive block of 25,000 call options on the supermarket operator this morning may mean one strategist has little appetite for a significant Supervalu rally, at least through September expiration day. No telling if the two are related, but the sale of the call options occurred roughly one hour before the company’s CFO was scheduled to present to investors at the Goldman Sachs 18th Annual Global Retailing Conference in New York City. SVU’s shares rallied at the open, increasing 2.5% to an intraday high of $7.84, but surrendered much of those gains to stand 0.65% higher on the session at $7.70 as of 12:25 pm ET. The investor responsible for the hefty transaction may or may not be long the stock. It looks like the trader sold 25,000 calls outright at the September $8.0 strike for a premium of $0.20 per contract. The premium remains in the investor’s wallet as long as Supervalu’s shares trade below $8.00 and the calls expire worthless at expiration next week. Potentially devastating losses could result for the trader if the short calls are uncovered, and the price of the underlying stock spikes higher ahead of expiration. Premium received on the sale of the calls provides limited protection in the event of an SVU rally, but the insurance policy gives way to losses if SVU’s shares exceed the effective breakeven price of $8.20 at September expiration day. If the investor is long the stock, it seems he is happy to pad his portfolio with premium today, and willing to have shares called from him at $8.00 should the calls land in-the-money next Friday.

OMX - OfficeMax Inc. – Shares in the office supplies retailer rallied 6.3% this morning to $5.59 despite third-quarter sales estimates that trail those recorded in the same period last year, CEO Ravi Saligram’s comments that OfficeMax is, “experiencing a soft Back-to-School season,” and tough macroeconomic conditions to boot. Saligram spoke today at the…
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October Overview – When the Goblins Come Home to Roost

Rollercoaster monksWhat a crazy month we had! 

The Dow began the month of October at 9,712 and finished the month of October at EXACTLY 9,712.  Now I don't want to say the market is manipulated but…  No, I've got nothing, there are no buts – the market is totally manipulated!  Either that or you believe that the random outcome of tens of millions of traders around the globe trading hundreds of billions of shares of stock would just so happen to begin and end the month within .50 after going as low as 9,378.77 (on the 5th) and as high as 10,157.94 (on the 21st).  So that is literally a 1 out of the 779-point swing coincidence to hit that 9,712 nail on the head

At PSW we couldn't be happier about this frankly.  As I often say to members:  We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is rigged so we can play along.  We were bearish in our September 27th Wrap-Up when I predicted that Earnings season would bring about a "Return to Fundamentals."  We targeted retrace moves of Dow 9,512, S&P 1,020, Nasdaq  2,030, NYSE 9,496 and Russell 556 – all of which we hit the following Friday.

68017.strip.sunday

That week I highlighted my fundamental market concerns and Monday (9/28) my topic was "6 Unemployed People Per Available Job," Tuesday I said "Consumer Confidence is Key," Wednesday we caught the turn perfectly as I predicted "End of Quarter, End of Pump," and Thursday, October 1st was the day that "REIT's Turned Rotten" – which was something we had been playing for during the September rally so we were thrilled with what is NOW the 2nd worst down day of the month.  That was the day GS decided to agree with me that REITs were over-valued and gave us a signal that the Gang of 12 were no longer all on the same page.  Friday, the 2nd, we were back to looking at the Jobs numbers when I asked "Is Anybody Working for the Weekend."

We could not have been more pleased with what was the worst week in the market…
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Weekend Reading – Looking for Green Shoots

I've been beefing up our bullish plays on the Watch List.

If we're going to get more bullish I thought it would be a good time to look for some bullish premises so we don't feel totally silly paying 20-year high p/e's for the S&P 500.  Obviously, our main hope is that the stocks we buy will grow into their earnings so the next month's worth of reports will be key.  The bar for corporate earnings is still set at very easy to beat levels yet, like this limbo-playing child, when they announce their beats of very low expectations we're going to get all excited and tell them how great they are doing.

The problem is, these are not kids who we hope may grow up one day to be President or CEOs of major companies. these ARE CEOs of major companies and they are being paid top salaries for top performance and we, the stock purchasing public, are paying top dollar for what should be SPECTACULAR performance, not beating 75% off last year's earnings by a penny! 

When I am being asked to buy IBM back at it's all-time high or AMZN or BIDU or AM, PALM, NFLX, PCLN, URBN, UHS, CERN, CREE, GMCR, CY, SWM, TRLG, BKE, etc – then their performance better look like this:  

 

Nothing against those particular companies, any individual company can be exceptional and beat the market, but - Are the companies we're buying really doing exceptional things or are have we just developed such ridiculously low expectations that we have been psychologically conditioned (and Wall Street firms employ armies of behavioral psychologists for a reason) to treat these stocks and the CEOs who run them like our children?  If your child was the child in the above picture and I asked you for $20 to see her limbo show – you might pay it.  If it's not your child though, would you even consider making an afternoon of it?  No, of course not, for good money you expect to see the cool fire guy at the top of his game and that is what you should expect from companies trading at or near all-time highs – NO LESS!

I love President Obama but he was just given a Nobel Peace Prize simply for not being President Bush – low expectations!  On Sept 17th, PALM announced…
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Volatility Bursts After Take-Two Reports Smaller Loss and Phil Davis Picks Them

Today’s tickers: TTWO, ORCL, URBN & GG

TTWO - The maker of the “Grand Theft Auto” series of video games surged more than 5.5% during the session to arrive at the current price of $10.75. The software developer reported a loss of 66 cents per share for the third-quarter, which was narrower than the 68 cent loss expected by some analysts. Options action in the December contract appears to be the work of an investor selling volatility by enacting a short straddle. It seems the trader put on the trade by shedding 5,000 calls at the December 10 strike price for a premium of 1.60, and then simultaneously selling 5,000 puts at the same strike, receiving a premium of 1.10 per contract. The gross premium enjoyed on the transaction amounts to 2.70. The trader will retain the full 2.70 premium if shares settle at $10.00 by expiration in December. Because the trader now holds short positions in both calls and puts, he is vulnerable to losses if shares surpass the upper breakeven point at $12.70 by expiration, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven price of $7.30. Option implied volatility plummeted from yesterday’s reading of 83% to the current value of 57% following third-quarter earnings for TTWO. – Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. –

ORCL - Investor demand for December contract put options caught our eye this morning amid a 1% decrease in shares of the software company to the current price of $21.79. Perhaps some traders have decided to take cautiously bearish stances on the stock after news reports revealed that the completion of Oracle’s acquisition of Sun Microsystems (JAVA) could be delayed by the European Commission (EC). The commission’s deadline to rule on the deal is this Thursday. However, the EC could launch an investigation that may take as many as four months, according to some reports. Plain-vanilla put buying was employed at the December 21 strike price where about 5,000 lots were picked up for an average premium of 1.30 apiece. Volume at the lower December 20 strike surpassed 19,000 contracts as traders appeared to have purchased 15,000 married put options for an average premium of 95 cents each. The purchase of shares of the underlying stock in conjunction with protective put options suggests that some investors expect the stock to appreciate by expiration in December. The puts provide downside protection on the long position in case shares decline…
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More Profits on Urban Outfitters

Today’s tickers: URBN, URE, IPG, WDC, JPM, STEC & ATHR

URBN– The clothing-haven for hipsters jumped to the top of our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one Urban-bear was observed taking profits in the January 2010 contract. It appears that this individual originally established a 40,000 lot put spread on July 22, 2008, at a net cost of 4.50. The trader partially unraveled the spread on November 13, 2008, leaving open interest of approximately 28,000 lots at each of the strike prices involved in the spread. Today he has once again targeted his urban-hunting ground to go in for the kill by closing out the position completely. The January 15 strike price saw 26,500 put options purchased for a premium of 1.19 apiece spread against the sale of 26,500 deep in-the-money puts at the January 30 strike for 10.04 per contract. The gross premium realized on this leg of the trade amounts to 8.85. Subtracting the 4.50 paid to initially purchase the bearish put spread yields profits of 4.35 or approximately $11,527,500. – Urban Outfitters, Inc.

URE– The bruised and battered real estate ETF has deflated more than 4.5% today to $3.50. In just a few short days, it will have been one full year since the fund was trading a staggering 841% higher at $32.94. One investor, who has no doubt witnessed the plunge in the price of the underlying over the course of the year, has taken a bearish stance on the stock today. This individual looks to have sold short 25,500 puts at the July 3.0 strike price for a premium of 15 cents per contract or $382,500. If the price of the URE falls beneath $3.00 by expiration, the trader appears happy to have the underlying shares put to him at an effective price of $2.85 each. Otherwise, he retains the full premium received on the transaction if the puts land out-of-the-money by the third Friday of next month. – ProShares Ultra Real Estate

IPG – Shares of the advertising and marketing services firm have declined more than 2% today to stand at $5.53. Despite the current erosion in the price of the underlying, one option trader was observed getting bullish on the stock through expiration in October. Hoping for a significant recovery in shares, the investor purchased 31,500 calls at the October 7.5 strike price for an average premium of
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Phil's Favorites

How Microsoft's Activision Blizzard takeover will drive metaverse gaming into the mass market

 

How Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard takeover will drive metaverse gaming into the mass market

Ready Player 1,000,000,0001? Sergey Nivens

Courtesy of Theo Tzanidis, University of the West of Scotland and Matthew Frew, University of the West of Scotland

Microsoft was positioning itself as one of the pioneers of the metaverse even before its US$75 billion deal to buy online gaming giant...



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Politics

Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security - but can the US and allies stop Putin's aggression now?

 

Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security – but can the US and allies stop Putin’s aggression now?

A Ukrainian soldier uses a periscope to view the positions of Russian-led forces on Dec. 12, 2021, in Zolote, Ukraine. Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Lee Feinstein, Indiana University and Mariana Budjeryn, Harvard Kennedy School ...



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Zero Hedge

Panasonic Eyes "Mass Production" Of New Battery For Tesla With 20% Higher Range

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Longtime Tesla partner Panasonic looks once again to be slated to produce new lithium-ion batteries for the EV automaker.

The company is going to be entering into "mass production" by 2023 in order to try and keep up with battery makers from China and South Korea. The new Panasonic batteries are expected to boost the range of EVs by 20% by 2023, according to a ...



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ValueWalk

Rowan Street 2021 Year-End Letter

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Rowan Street commentary for the year ended December 31, 2021.

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“Nobody buys a farm based on whether they think its going to rain next year. They buy because they think its a good investment over 10 or 15 years. It’s the same with stocks. Think of stocks as a part ownership of a business. It’s not that complicated.” - Warren Buffett

Dear Partners,

I think we can all agree that since the pandemic started in the beginning of 2020, it has been a very challenging op...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Major Stock Market Indices Reach Critical Impasse!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Today’s chart 4-pack illustrates why the broader stock market has reached a critical juncture this month.

Investors are feeling the heat from recent selling. Why?

Well, as the “monthly” charts above show, the Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, and NYSE Composite have reached long-term overhead price resistance.

While the long-term trend is still “up”, it isn’t surprising to see some selling here. That said, bulls worries will go from a correction to a bear market if selling really kicks in to end the month. Just a theory of mine!

Active investors will likely benefit from both caution and patience in the days/weeks ahead. Stay tuned!...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Here's where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID - new study

 

Here’s where (and how) you are most likely to catch COVID – new study

VGstockstudio/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Trish Greenhalgh, University of Oxford; Jose-Luis Jimenez, University of Colorado Boulder; Shelly Miller, University of Col...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Digital Currencies

The metaverse is money and crypto is king - why you'll be on a blockchain when you're hopping

 

The metaverse is money and crypto is king – why you’ll be on a blockchain when you’re virtual-world hopping

In the metaverse, your avatar, the clothes it wears and the things it carries belong to you thanks to blockchain. Duncan Rawlinson - Duncan.co/Flickr, CC BY-NC

Courtesy of Rabindra Ratan, Michigan State University and Dar Meshi, Michigan State University ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.