Posts Tagged ‘VAR’

Frightening Friday – Halloween Edition!

Wheee what a day! 

Who said we placed a spread bet on the Dow moving 200 points one way or another in yesterday's morning post?  Me, that's who.  And how much did the Dow move yesterday?  199.89 points.  OK, so I was wrong by .11 but our plays worked out just fine and we flipped bearish again as we flew up and we'll see if my streak continues this week.  We would have gone more aggressivley bearish but we were worried about end of the month (and end of the year for many hedge funds) window dressing that would keep things going for one more day.

Everything went according to plan and we got the bounces we were looking for but the RUT failed to retake 589, which was our canary in the coal mine's breakdown level from last week.  As I alerted members at 12:15, that and the Qs failing to hold 42 into the close, which failed to confirm the Nas move over our 2,088 watch level.  We have our DIA puts, we have our SRS longs, we have our DXD longs (which are half price as our DDMs paid off yesterday) and we shorted SPG into the close as Cap noted they had a ridiculous run-up ahead of today's earnings. 

As I said to members in the afternoon, my gut said to go more bearish but we allowed ourselves to be spooked by Mr Stick in the afternoon and ended up about 55% bearish with a 1/2 cover of our long DIA puts but we already made a quick 20% on the sale of short puts in the morning so it's a position we had a little slack in going into the close.  Our logic is, even if we have another up day today, we're still going to want some pretty serious coverage into the weekend unless the Russell and the Qs can confirm this move up today. 

Bulls should be spooked by the fact that a blow-out GDP report, showing an economy with a HUGE turnaround and the President crowing on TV about how great things are going could ONLY erase 1/2 the losses we suffered since last week.  Another market move I hit on the head yesterday was my prediction that, after 3 consecutive 1.8% down days in a row, the Hang Seng would jump
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HP bulls charge at a $50 upside target

Today’s tickers: HPQ, VAR, DOW, AMTD, XLF, WFC & BAC

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company – The global technology company has enjoyed a more than 4% rally to $34.41 on broader market gains. HPQ edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after bullish option traders played the field. Optimism in options-land occurred amid news that HPQ was assigned an “overweight” rating by an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP as well as a heightened target price of $44.00 per share. The first sign of optimism we noticed was the sale of 2,200 puts at the May 32.5 strike price for a premium of 1.00 apiece. But, the May transaction was merely small potatoes compared to what we observed in the January 2010 contract. At the January 35 strike, an appetizer of 4,500 calls was bought for 5.30 apiece ahead of the main course, a large bull call spread. The January 40 strike price saw the purchase of 20,000 call options for a premium of 3.10 each and spread against the sale of 20,000 calls at the January 50 strike for a premium of 87 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 2.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 7.77 to the trader if shares can shoot up to $50.00 by expiration next year. HPQ’s shares have not traded above $50.00 since December 31, 2007. In order for this investor to breakeven at $42.23 where he would begin to amass profits on the spread, shares would need to rally by 23% from the current price.

VAR Varian Medical Systems, Inc. – The designer and manufacturer of advanced equipment and software utilized for the treatment of cancer has experienced a 6% rally to $33.28 amid supposed takeover chatter reported by some news sources today. Option volume of nearly 21,000 contracts has superseded existing open interest on the stock of just 19,785, indicating that there is certainly fresh interest a-brewing. Investors were seen picking up more than 4,600 call options at the April 35 strike price for an average premium of 47 cents apiece. Meanwhile, traders looked as high up as the May 40 strike price where some 2,600 call options were scooped up for about 68 cents per contract. Option implied volatility which started the day at around 49% has since gone through the roof and current stands at 65% for the day.

DOW The Dow Chemical Company
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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin's Gut Check: The Time Of Crisis As The Moment Of Truth

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Marc Bernegger via CoinTelegraph.com,

If Bitcoin weathers the current financial storm, our monetary system will be on the brink of dramatic changes or even a revolution.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Move Over, Millennials

 

Move Over, Millennials

Courtesy of 

Not all young people share the same daily habits or the same views of the world.

Millennials are cutting the cord. Gen Z doesn’t know what the cord is. 45% of Millennials still watch broadcast tv, compared with 26% of 16-17 year olds.

Millennials play fantasy sports. Gen Z watches eSports. Only 18% of 18-24 year olds watch traditional sports, compared with 30% of Millennials.

...

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Politics

Profiles in Cowardice

 

Profiles in Cowardice

Most elected Republicans in Washington are failing the test by refusing to stand up to Trump. Their cowardice is one of the worst betrayals of public trust in the history of our republic.

By Robert Reich writing at Common Dreams

American democracy will continue to be endangered by House and Senate Republicans who lack the moral courage to do what’s right. (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Financial r...



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ValueWalk

AstraZeneca Shares Slide After Weak Covid Vaccine Results

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine results and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

AstraZeneca Shares Fall After Annoucing Weak Results Of Its Covid Vaccine

The major indices are mixed and flat at midday despite a positive start to the session on Wall Street. The Nasdaq’s relative weakness has been weighing on the broader market in early trading, following yet another promising ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time - but are these game-changers safe?

 

COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time – but are these game-changers safe?

The pandemic rages as the world waits for COVID-19 vaccines. Peter Zelei Images/Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

There are now two COVID-19 vaccines that, at least according to preliminary reports, appear to be 94.5% and ...



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Chart School

Inflation Deflation Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Structural change forces the current narrative to change. One such structural change would be a period elevated inflation.

Inflation is a condition which effects many economic models, we only have to review the history books of the 1970's to see how asset classes reacted then and how they may react in the future. 

In periods of inflation there are short periods of deflation, as markets adjust from one theme to another it usually does so with some pain. The short answer: Nothing moves in a straight line and high volatility will shock the most experience investor.  

Long term cycles raise the question, if happened before is it likely to happen again. Price does not always fit the sine wave cycle neatly, but if the cycle is tru...

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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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