Posts Tagged ‘VAR’

Frightening Friday – Halloween Edition!

Wheee what a day! 

Who said we placed a spread bet on the Dow moving 200 points one way or another in yesterday's morning post?  Me, that's who.  And how much did the Dow move yesterday?  199.89 points.  OK, so I was wrong by .11 but our plays worked out just fine and we flipped bearish again as we flew up and we'll see if my streak continues this week.  We would have gone more aggressivley bearish but we were worried about end of the month (and end of the year for many hedge funds) window dressing that would keep things going for one more day.

Everything went according to plan and we got the bounces we were looking for but the RUT failed to retake 589, which was our canary in the coal mine's breakdown level from last week.  As I alerted members at 12:15, that and the Qs failing to hold 42 into the close, which failed to confirm the Nas move over our 2,088 watch level.  We have our DIA puts, we have our SRS longs, we have our DXD longs (which are half price as our DDMs paid off yesterday) and we shorted SPG into the close as Cap noted they had a ridiculous run-up ahead of today's earnings. 

As I said to members in the afternoon, my gut said to go more bearish but we allowed ourselves to be spooked by Mr Stick in the afternoon and ended up about 55% bearish with a 1/2 cover of our long DIA puts but we already made a quick 20% on the sale of short puts in the morning so it's a position we had a little slack in going into the close.  Our logic is, even if we have another up day today, we're still going to want some pretty serious coverage into the weekend unless the Russell and the Qs can confirm this move up today. 

Bulls should be spooked by the fact that a blow-out GDP report, showing an economy with a HUGE turnaround and the President crowing on TV about how great things are going could ONLY erase 1/2 the losses we suffered since last week.  Another market move I hit on the head yesterday was my prediction that, after 3 consecutive 1.8% down days in a row, the Hang Seng would jump
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HP bulls charge at a $50 upside target

Today’s tickers: HPQ, VAR, DOW, AMTD, XLF, WFC & BAC

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company – The global technology company has enjoyed a more than 4% rally to $34.41 on broader market gains. HPQ edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after bullish option traders played the field. Optimism in options-land occurred amid news that HPQ was assigned an “overweight” rating by an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP as well as a heightened target price of $44.00 per share. The first sign of optimism we noticed was the sale of 2,200 puts at the May 32.5 strike price for a premium of 1.00 apiece. But, the May transaction was merely small potatoes compared to what we observed in the January 2010 contract. At the January 35 strike, an appetizer of 4,500 calls was bought for 5.30 apiece ahead of the main course, a large bull call spread. The January 40 strike price saw the purchase of 20,000 call options for a premium of 3.10 each and spread against the sale of 20,000 calls at the January 50 strike for a premium of 87 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 2.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 7.77 to the trader if shares can shoot up to $50.00 by expiration next year. HPQ’s shares have not traded above $50.00 since December 31, 2007. In order for this investor to breakeven at $42.23 where he would begin to amass profits on the spread, shares would need to rally by 23% from the current price.

VAR Varian Medical Systems, Inc. – The designer and manufacturer of advanced equipment and software utilized for the treatment of cancer has experienced a 6% rally to $33.28 amid supposed takeover chatter reported by some news sources today. Option volume of nearly 21,000 contracts has superseded existing open interest on the stock of just 19,785, indicating that there is certainly fresh interest a-brewing. Investors were seen picking up more than 4,600 call options at the April 35 strike price for an average premium of 47 cents apiece. Meanwhile, traders looked as high up as the May 40 strike price where some 2,600 call options were scooped up for about 68 cents per contract. Option implied volatility which started the day at around 49% has since gone through the roof and current stands at 65% for the day.

DOW The Dow Chemical Company
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Phil's Favorites

Being on the wrong side of this decade's investing mega-trend

 

Being on the wrong side of this decade’s investing mega-trend

Courtesy of 

Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss the recent post “I did everything I was supposed to do”, which is the story of a man whose spent his whole career working for asset management firms and now finds himself on the wrong side of the active vs passive debate. There are real world consequences of the massive outflows of cash coming from actively managed mutual funds. This was Josh’s attempt to look at the issue from the other side.

The post spread around the financial web like wildfir...



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Zero Hedge

BMO: Everything Will Change After Tomorrow's "Quad Witching"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Don't look to the Fed to explain today's torrid, global rally: according to a controversial take by BMO's bearish technical analyst, Russ Visch, yesterday’s FOMC announcement was a non-event "as markets shrugged off the interest rate decision and follow-up presser with Chairman Powell", and today's action has an entirely different catalyst, resulting in "no change" to Visch's short-term outlook.

And in another contrarian take, Visch claims that "the quality of the rally since late May (narrow participation, extremely light volume) suggest it’s nothing more than a relief rally within an ongoing medium-term downtrend" as shown in the chart below.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver; Multi-Year Bull Market Getting Started?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is a multi-year bull market about to start in Silver? We should find out soon!

This chart looks at Silver since the early 1970s. It has spent the majority of the past 35-years inside of rising channel (1).

It created a series of flat bottoms and lower highs in the late 1990s. When it broke out at (2), it rallied for years to come, where it gained several hundred percent.

Silver hit the top of this channel back in 2011 at $50, where a long-term bear market started. The 65% decline over the past 8-years has it testing the bottom of this mul...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Citigroup raised Accenture Plc (NYSE: ACN) price target from $194 to $211. Accenture shares closed at $183.95 on Wednesday.
  • Stephens & Co. boosted the price target for Adobe Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE) from $288 to $327. Adobe shares closed at $291.21 on Wednesday.
  • Credit Suisse boosted the price target on Ferrari NV (NYSE: RACE) from $158 to $185. Ferrari shares closed at $157.83 on Wednesday.
  • Goldman Sachs cut the price target for Tesla ...


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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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If gold moves, silver wi...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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