Posts Tagged ‘VAR’

Frightening Friday – Halloween Edition!

Wheee what a day! 

Who said we placed a spread bet on the Dow moving 200 points one way or another in yesterday's morning post?  Me, that's who.  And how much did the Dow move yesterday?  199.89 points.  OK, so I was wrong by .11 but our plays worked out just fine and we flipped bearish again as we flew up and we'll see if my streak continues this week.  We would have gone more aggressivley bearish but we were worried about end of the month (and end of the year for many hedge funds) window dressing that would keep things going for one more day.

Everything went according to plan and we got the bounces we were looking for but the RUT failed to retake 589, which was our canary in the coal mine's breakdown level from last week.  As I alerted members at 12:15, that and the Qs failing to hold 42 into the close, which failed to confirm the Nas move over our 2,088 watch level.  We have our DIA puts, we have our SRS longs, we have our DXD longs (which are half price as our DDMs paid off yesterday) and we shorted SPG into the close as Cap noted they had a ridiculous run-up ahead of today's earnings. 

As I said to members in the afternoon, my gut said to go more bearish but we allowed ourselves to be spooked by Mr Stick in the afternoon and ended up about 55% bearish with a 1/2 cover of our long DIA puts but we already made a quick 20% on the sale of short puts in the morning so it's a position we had a little slack in going into the close.  Our logic is, even if we have another up day today, we're still going to want some pretty serious coverage into the weekend unless the Russell and the Qs can confirm this move up today. 

Bulls should be spooked by the fact that a blow-out GDP report, showing an economy with a HUGE turnaround and the President crowing on TV about how great things are going could ONLY erase 1/2 the losses we suffered since last week.  Another market move I hit on the head yesterday was my prediction that, after 3 consecutive 1.8% down days in a row, the Hang Seng would jump
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HP bulls charge at a $50 upside target

Today’s tickers: HPQ, VAR, DOW, AMTD, XLF, WFC & BAC

HPQ Hewlett-Packard Company – The global technology company has enjoyed a more than 4% rally to $34.41 on broader market gains. HPQ edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after bullish option traders played the field. Optimism in options-land occurred amid news that HPQ was assigned an “overweight” rating by an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP as well as a heightened target price of $44.00 per share. The first sign of optimism we noticed was the sale of 2,200 puts at the May 32.5 strike price for a premium of 1.00 apiece. But, the May transaction was merely small potatoes compared to what we observed in the January 2010 contract. At the January 35 strike, an appetizer of 4,500 calls was bought for 5.30 apiece ahead of the main course, a large bull call spread. The January 40 strike price saw the purchase of 20,000 call options for a premium of 3.10 each and spread against the sale of 20,000 calls at the January 50 strike for a premium of 87 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 2.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 7.77 to the trader if shares can shoot up to $50.00 by expiration next year. HPQ’s shares have not traded above $50.00 since December 31, 2007. In order for this investor to breakeven at $42.23 where he would begin to amass profits on the spread, shares would need to rally by 23% from the current price.

VAR Varian Medical Systems, Inc. – The designer and manufacturer of advanced equipment and software utilized for the treatment of cancer has experienced a 6% rally to $33.28 amid supposed takeover chatter reported by some news sources today. Option volume of nearly 21,000 contracts has superseded existing open interest on the stock of just 19,785, indicating that there is certainly fresh interest a-brewing. Investors were seen picking up more than 4,600 call options at the April 35 strike price for an average premium of 47 cents apiece. Meanwhile, traders looked as high up as the May 40 strike price where some 2,600 call options were scooped up for about 68 cents per contract. Option implied volatility which started the day at around 49% has since gone through the roof and current stands at 65% for the day.

DOW The Dow Chemical Company
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Phil's Favorites

Chart o' the Day: US Stocks > Everything

 

Chart o’ the Day: US Stocks > Everything

Courtesy of 

Last year was a great year for US stocks but an even better year for markets around the world.

So far, at almost the halfway point of 2018, this has mostly reversed itself. The world is being led by the Nasdaq 100, followed by the Russell 2000 index of US small caps, followed by the S&P 500’s US large cap index.

Just about everything else has reversed into the negative.

Here’s what it looks like:

Only the US has seen...



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Zero Hedge

"Italy Is Collapsing...And 5 Star Is Our Last Hope": How Young Italians Fueled A Populist Uprising

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Unlike in the US, where President Trump relies on older Americans for his base of support, more than half (53%) of Italians under 35 voted for one of the two anti-establishment parties that triumphed in Italy's March election. Their enthusiastic support explains the outpouring of anger directed at technocratic Italian President Sergio Mattarella, who called for new elections as he seemingly reached for every conceivable excu...



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Insider Scoop

More Trade Threats Spook Investors

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY The Market In 5 Minutes: Trade Tensions Intensify, ZTE Rebuked, Housing Starts And More Mark Cuban, Others...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - Testing support on cycle low

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Due to popular demand, bitcoin review.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and ...

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Digital Currencies

BIS Blasts Cryptos In Special Report: "Beyond The Hype"

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

The BIS blasts cryptos over scaling issues, energy, and trust. The BIS is correct. Cryptos are fatally flawed as money.

A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) report examines cryptocurrencies in depth. The study, called "Looking Beyond the Hype" investigates whether cryptocurrencies could play any role as money.

Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Bitcoin Exchange guide all have articles on the report but not one of the bothered to link to it.

After a bit of digging, I found the crypto report is part of an upcoming BIS annual report. The BIS pre-released the crypto report today (as chapter 5).

Here's a l...



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Biotech

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Mind molding psychedelic drugs could treat depression, and other mental illnesses

By agsandrew/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David E. Olson, University of California, Davis

It seems that psychedelics do more than simply alter perception. According to the latest research from my colleagues and me, they change the structures of neurons th...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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