Posts Tagged ‘Wave Principle’

Elliott Wave Analysis – Free Learning Materials

Here’s a series of Elliott Wave Lessons from the recent week or so, all wrapped up into one post with several free offers from Elliott Wave International.  As always, would love comments from anyone who has incorporated Elliott Waves into their trading methods or who has experience with the EW program.  - Ilene 

Learn Elliott Wave Analysis — Free
Often, basics is all you need to know. 

Detail view of a shell

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International  

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts — and you’ve laid a good foundation for proper application of… well, anything, really. That’s what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter’s classic "Elliott Wave Principle — Key to Market Behavior."  Here’s an excerpt:

Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. …the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one’s present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market… These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

Idealized Elliott Wave Pattern 

1) First waves — …about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two.


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Wave Principle Crash Course: There’s No Going Back

Wave Principle Crash Course: There’s No Going Back

By Nico Isaac, Elliott Wave International 

Wave crashing

For over ten decades, the mainstream financial world has embraced the view that external news events drive trend changes in the markets. In less than ten minutes, EWI’s senior tutorial instructor Wayne Gorman shatters that very idea into a fine dust, swept away into thin air.

In part one of his exclusive, three-part Club EWI video series "Why Use The Wave Principle," Wayne first assesses the pitfalls of relying on macroeconomic models to forecast; namely: "An investor is lured into the market at just the worst time, when it’s time to sell, and forced out just at the best time to buy."

As for real world examples of this happening, Wayne spans three hundred years of financial history to reveal how the most pivotal economic, political, and environmental events failed to alter the course of their respective markets. Here, the free video includes groundbreaking charts on these (and more) well known episodes:

  • The S&P 500 and Enron from 2000-2002: The stock market ROSE and continued to proceed upward AFTER the largest US corporate scandal and bankruptcy ever (at the time).
  • The Dow Industrials and GDP quarterly data from 1970 to early 2000s: After the release of major negative GDP numbers, the market for the most part ROSE, just the opposite of what most market analysts and investors expect.
  • The Dow and profound political events over the last 80 years: In the 1930s and 1940s, a series of negative incidents — i.e. Hitler rising to power, World War II, and the Holocaust — preceded a powerful uptrend in stocks all the way into the 1960s.
  • Stock market charts of the five countries most affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). Four out of the five ROSE after the natural disaster…

Believe it or not, we’ve only scratched the surface. In his myth-busting, free video "Why Use the Wave Principle," Wayne Gorman presents a total of 40 charts that capture failed fundamental analysis of the world’s leading financial markets. Wayne recalls this expression from a famous, Nobel Prize winning economist: 

"Economic reasoning will be of no value in cases of uncertainty."

And he offers this response:

"But isn’t that what we have in financial markets: cases of uncertainty? We need a different type of reasoning, one that will help us to avoid the pitfalls shown on the previous charts.
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Phil's Favorites

Recession

 

Recession

Courtesy of 

The bad news is piling up. The recession that people are looking for may already be here.

We heard about inventory buildup at Target and Walmart last week and the stocks responded with their worst day since…1987.  Those were not isolated incidents. This week we heard the same from Kohl’s and Abercrombie, whose stock is cratering 30% on the news.

In other news, Snap just warned of an imminent slowdown.

From The WSJ :

“In a surprise announcement, Snap Inc., the ...



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Politics

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn't an accident - it's part of Putin's plan to destabilize Europe

 

The big exodus of Ukrainian refugees isn’t an accident – it’s part of Putin’s plan to destabilize Europe

Ukrainians fleeing the war walk toward a train in Krakow to bring them to Berlin on March 15, 2022. Omar Marques/Getty Images

Courtesy of Mark A. Grey, University of Northern Iowa

More than 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia first invaded in late February 2022.

The European Union h...



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Zero Hedge

JPMorgan Trading Desk Commentary: "The Supply On Our Desk Is Starting To Dissipate"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

After another market rollercoaster session, here are some thoughts from JPMorgan's trading desk, starting with Ron Adler, TMT [Trend-Momentum-Trendline] trader, who is seeing what may be the start of a reversal in bearish sentiment in the TMT space...

The transcript on many conversations goes like this: “So I know WHY X is down, but WHY is X down SO MUCH?”

The supply on our desk is starting to dissipate. Some are trying to pick a bottom in names like SNAP, FB, and UBER...but that strategy has been futile.

  • INTERNET: IT FEELS LIKE YOU CAN’T OWN ANYTHING IN INTERNET RIGHT NOW – CHANGE MY MIND....
  • E-COMMERCE: If AMZN, WMT and TGT are having issues, I don’t think ...


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ValueWalk

The Shocks Which Have Ripped Through The UK Economy During The Queen's 70 Year Reign

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

  • 1956 – The Suez canal crisis in 1956 led to an economic crisis and capital flight
  • 1975 – Consumer price inflation reached 24% during the oil crisis
  • 1984 – Unemployment soared to 11.9% amid miners’ strike
  • 1987  – FTSE All Share drops 22% on Black Monday
  • 2001 – Dotcom bubble burst and markets fall by more than 50% over 3 years
  • 2008 – Financial crisis hits with housing market falling 15% by February 2009
  • 2016 – The vote for Brexit sees the pound fall sharply on currency markets
  • 2000 – The pandemic sees record fall in output, with GDP falling 19.6%
  • ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Can Treasury Bonds (TLT) Reverse Higher From Historic Oversold Level?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been an ugly couple of year for US Treasury Bonds. T-bond prices have dropped sharply as yields have risen.

This has been an added pressure on retirement portfolios as treasury bonds are no longer trading like a conservative asset.

Time for a bounce in T-bonds?

Today, we take a look at the long-term “monthly” chart of the 20+ Year US Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

As you can see, 2 years ago bonds peaked and formed a historic bearish reversal pattern at the highest momentum reading ever.

...

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Chart School

Powell has a debt problem

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The last time the US entertained debt this high (relative to GDP) was post World War 2.


The prior US high debt years were between 1936 and 1954, back then the public understood why the high debt existed (WW2) and why the public had to suffer high inflation to allow deflation of the debt to a manageable level. This question was not as political as it is today.   


Current US debt levels are the result of 'end of empire' spending, simply spending on steroids beyond one means. The FED needs inflation for the same reason as the post WW2 period to deflate away the debt.


The current political talk of 'fight inflation' will be short lived and the FED will be forced to accept higher inflation levels over the 2% (say b...

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Biotech/COVID-19

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what's known about this smallpox cousin

 

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what’s known about this smallpox cousin

Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters, which eventually scab over. CDC/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University

On May 18, 2022, Massachusetts health officials and the Centers for Disease Control ...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.