Bearish Options Play Paying Off As Abercrombie Shares Lose Their Cool
by Option Review - May 24th, 2013 7:06 pm
Options brief will resume June 3rd, 2013.
Today’s tickers: ANF, XLU & XLV
ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – Shares in teen retailer, Abercrombie & Fitch Co., are getting hammered today, down 10% at $48.92 in early-afternoon trading after the company reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and missed topline estimates, lowered its full year earnings forecast and said same-store sales would be down slightly for the rest of the year. A review of pre-earnings report activity in Abercrombie options yesterday indicates one trader was prepared for the pullback today. It looks like the strategist initiated a ratio put spread, picking up 500 May 31 ’13 $50 strike puts for a premium of $0.91 each, and selling 1,000 puts at the May 31 ’13 $47 strike at a premium of $0.35 apiece. The bearish trade cost a net premium of $0.21 per contract and established an effective breakeven price of $49.79, with maximum possible gains of $2.79 per contract given a 13.5% move lower (based on ANF’s closing price of $54.37 on Thursday 5/23/13) in the stock to $47.00 by expiration on the 31st of May. The $47/$50 ratio put spread is working today given the sharp selloff in the price of the underlying, and would cost roughly $1.20 per contract, or more than five times as much, to initiate as of the time of this writing.
XLU - Utilities Select Sector SPDR – At the end of April shares in the Utilities ETF were trading at the highest level since the summer of 2008, having rallied nearly 20% during the first four months of 2013 to hit $41.44 on April 30th. Several trading sessions prior to securing the $41.44 high, we noted a large trade in XLU options; the purchase of a block of 50,000 Jun $40 strike puts for a premium of $0.51 per contract. The trade was initiated within…
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Bullish Options Change Hands On Hartford Financial Services Group
by Option Review - April 30th, 2013 8:16 pm
Today’s tickers: HIG, NUAN & XLU
HIG - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Shares in insurer, Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., are trading at their highest level since May of 2011 today after the company posted better than expected first-quarter earnings after the close on Monday. The stock is up 3.5% at $28.17 as of 11:20 a.m. ET this morning and some options players appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term. The most actively traded contracts on HIG as measured by volume today are the May $29 strike calls, with upwards of 7,000 lots in play versus open interest of 2,184 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased during the first 30 minutes of the trading session for an average premium of $0.38 each. Traders long the $29 calls stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that HIG’s shares rally another 4.3% over the current price of $28.17 to surpass the average breakeven point at $29.38. Hartford’s shares are up roughly 80% off a 52-week low of $15.56 set back in August of 2012.
NUAN - Nuance Communications, Inc. – Investors in speech recognition software maker, Nuance Communications, Inc., are taking it on the chin today as shares in the name tumble on the lower than expected second-quarter earnings and revenue reported by the company ahead of the opening bell. Shares in NUAN dropped as much as 19% to a one-month low of $18.86 this morning. Double-digit percentage declines in the price of the underlying appears to have spurred some contrarian trading in Nuance options. Strategists positioning for shares in the audio software provider to rebound during the next couple of months snapped up around 1,700 calls at the Jun $20 strike for an average premium of $0.90 each in the early going today. The bullish bet may pay off at June expiration if shares in Nuance manage to rally 11% off the $18.86 low to surpass the average breakeven point at…
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Bearish Options Trade Bets XLU Rally Running On Empty
by Option Review - April 26th, 2013 10:02 pm
Today’s tickers: XLU, HPQ & QLIK
XLU - Utilities Select Sector SPDR – A large trade in XLU puts yesterday suggests at least one options market participant is preparing for the strong run in the price of the underlying to run out of juice in the near future. Shares in the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF are up 0.20% today at $41.00, on the heels of a 17% move to the upside since the end of 2012. The biggest print in XLU options yesterday was the purchase of a block of 50,000 Jun $40 strike puts at a premium of $0.51 each. The bearish strategy starts making money if the price of the underlying slips 1.2% from the current price of $41.00 to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $40.49.
HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co. – Weekly calls changing hands on Hewlett-Packard today look for shares in the name to rally in the near term. The stock is up 3.0% this afternoon to stand at $20.24 as of 12:25 p.m. ET. Shares in HPQ had been on a tear, rallying more than 60% during the first three months of 2013 to a six-month high of $24.05 on April 1st. Since then, however, the computer hardware maker’s shares have declined roughly 15% to reach the current level. Options traders positioning for shares to move higher next week appear to be buying the May 03 ’13 $20 and $21 strike calls this morning. It looks like traders snapped up 2,600 of the $20 strike calls at an average premium of $0.33 each and around 3,200 of the $21 strike calls for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next week in the event that shares in HPQ exceed average breakeven points at $20.33 and $21.16, respectively. HPQ reports second-quarter earnings after the close on May 21st.
QLIK - Qlik Technologies, Inc. – Shares in the…
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Toppy Tuesday – Can We Get More Bullish?
by phil - March 23rd, 2010 7:38 am
Here’s a fun chart to consider:
This is the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, which is a measure of the percent of stocks in the index that are currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals. Bullish Percent Levels higher than 70% are considered overbought and below 30% is considered oversold. We hit a high of 88 in September of last year and haven’t been below 50 since last March’s crash. Notice a move down to just 64 cost the S&P close to 10% in February so, believe me - you don’t even want to think about what will happen if we hit 30!
Note these tops can last for a couple of weeks and that fits in fine with our reasoning for cashing out last week and moving to the sidelines to watch this nonsense unfold, as funds scramble to put up the best possible Q1 numbers between now and next Wednesday, in the hopes of getting investor capital off the sidelines and back where they can charge some fees.
A funny thing about funds that most people don’t consider is that, in a cyclical market, the WORST funds to put money into are often the ones that just posted the best performance because their strategy is often stretched. Logically, you should be looking at the worst performing funds and trying to find one that backed something (like natural gas last Q) that you feel may be recovering. Of course, that’s not human nature and funds will do ANYTHING to get themselves on the top of those lists to attract the investment bucks in Q2.
Taking a look at our sector spider charts, we see the amazing run we’ve had since Feb 8th and, like our index charts, we want to be aware of those blue lines (20 dma) as a sign of short-term weakness, which means we’re very concerned with XLB (with builders reporting this week), XLE (oil must hold $80) and XLU (possibly hopeless due to consumers being unable to pay bills).
Think of the sectors as a bunch of little tug-boats, pulling the large S&P barge. One or two of them my not be pulling in the same direction as the group and that would have little effect on the broader index but, as more and more of the little indexes begin to line up and pull in the same direction – the index begins to turn and, once you have a majority pulling in one direction, the remaining stragglers…
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Love Letters (Weekend Reading on Valentine’s Day)
by phil - February 14th, 2010 8:25 am
Happy Valentine's Day!
Last Valentine's Day was as Saturday, following a frightening Friday the 13th, where we had fallen through the 8,000 line on the Dow. I wrote a very interesting post that morning discussing how I came about my political views, which is good for new Members to check out. We also flipped short that day on SKF, too early at $130 but that ended well as we kept after them and it was our biggest bet by March 6th, which eventually returned over 1,000%. We also stopped shorting GOOG at $350 (it did keep going to $300 but the upside was nice too). I closed the morning post with:
For us, it’s all about the levels as we try to remain unbiased as investors, no matter how voraciously we defend our political views. Dow 7,800, S&P 820, Nas 1,460, NYSE 5,100, Russell 437 and SOX 203 all better continue to hold today but, even if they do, we’re nowhere near where we want to be and we’re going to take some bearish covers into the weekend – just in case. So whether you are a witch celebrating the horrors of the 13th or waiting for a rose from your true love the next day, remember to be careful out there – we are certainly still deep, deep in the woods!
That Tuesday (Monday was President's day) we fell 300 points and another 300 points by the end of the week! That was a fitting way to mark the 80th anniversary of the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre when Al Capone’s "South Side" gang, dressed as cops, rousted a garage run by Bugs Moran’s "North Side" gang and had them stand against the wall and then executed all 7 men. They shot them 70 times with machine guns and made their escape by using the Capone men dressed as cops to "arrest" the other Capone men and drive them away from the scene in broad daylight. Now that's what I call a good plan!
Here's a great chart that summarizes our year to date. Someone else found this, I wish I knew how to use StockCharts this well, they have tons of good things in there:
It's a bit worrying that XLU is doing so poorly – so much for diversification keeping you safe… It's going…
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AAPL-Bull Buys Call Spread
by Option Review - December 14th, 2009 4:26 pm
Today’s tickers: AAPL, GLD, XLU, AEP, CI, CHK, XEL, OSK, LLL, JAVA & BSX
AAPL – Apple, Inc. – A long-term bullish play on the iPod manufacturer suggests the price of the stock could skyrocket by July 2010. Apple’s shares increased more than 1% during the session to $196.96. It looks like one trader initiated a call spread in the July contract to position for a significant jump in the price of the underlying in the next seven months. The investor purchased 3,000 calls at the July 220 strike for a premium of 13.60 apiece, and sold the same number of calls at the higher July 250 strike for about 6.18 each. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to 7.42 per contract. AAPL’s shares must surge 15.5% from the current price in order to reach the breakeven point on the trade at $227.42. Maximum potential profits of 22.58 per contract are available to the investor if the stock jumps 27% to $250.00 by expiration in July.
GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – A bullish risk reversal on the gold ETF today points to a rebound in gold bullion prices by expiration in February 2010. Shares of the GLD added nearly 1% during the trading day to stand at $110.23. One trader sold 9,650 puts at the February 110 strike for 4.70 each in order to partially finance the purchase of 9,650 calls at the same strike for 4.90 apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to just 20 cents per contract. Profits amass on the transaction if shares of the fund rally through the breakeven price of $110.20 by expiration day in February 2010.
XLU – SPDR Utilities Select Sector ETF – Shares of the exchange-traded fund comprised of common stocks of companies from the electric utilities, multi-utilities, independent power producers, energy traders and gas utility industries, increased 0.75% during the trading day to a new 52-week high of $32.08. The fresh high for the fund perhaps inspired the bullish options activity we observed on the XLU today. One investor banked profits on a previously established long call position in the January 2010 contract. The trader originally bought 5,000 calls at the January 29 strike for a premium of 92 cents apiece back on November 6, 2009, when shares were at $28.90. The investor sold the calls today for 2.95 apiece and took in net profits…
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Mixed Sentiment on BAC Pits Bulls Against Bears
by Option Review - December 4th, 2009 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: BAC, XRX, XLF, CAR, XLU, BIG, SLM, TTWO, MRVL & TSN
BAC – Bank of America Corp. – Investors employed two contradictory option strategies in the February contract on Bank of America today. One trader initiated a large bearish risk reversal while the other put on a bullish call spread. BAC’s shares rallied 3.5% this afternoon to $16.30. The pessimistic investor appears to have sold 30,000 in-the-money call options at the February 15 strike for 1.74 apiece in order to purchase 30,000 puts at the same strike for 84 cents each. The reversal results in a net credit of 90 cents per contract to the trader. Perhaps this individual expects shares to decline beneath the $15-level by expiration so he may retain the full 90 cent credit on the trade. Bullish trading in the same February 2010 contract suggests shares are set to rally higher in the next few months. An optimistic investor purchased 10,000 calls at the February 17 strike for 89 cents each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher February 19 strike for 34 cents apiece. The net cost of the spread amounts to 55 cents per contract. Maximum potential profits of 1.45 are available to the investor if shares increase more than 16.5% from the current price to a new 52-week high of $19.00 by expiration in February.
XRX – Xerox Corp. – One investor utilized the risk reversal strategy in order to take a long-term bullish stance on Xerox. Shares moved 1% higher this afternoon to $7.85. It looks like the trader sold 20,000 puts at the January 2011 7.5 strike for a premium of 1.15 each to partially finance the purchase of 20,000 calls at the same strike for 1.60 apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 45 cents per contract. The investor profits if shares surpass the breakeven price of $7.95 within the next 12 months to expiration.
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Shares of the XLF rallied 0.75% in afternoon trading to stand at $14.46. Bullish options activity on the fund suggests shares are likely to appreciate within the next several months. Optimistic investors purchased 69,000 in-the-money call options at the March 14 strike for an average premium of 1.36 per contract. XLF shares must rise 6% from the current price before profits accumulate above the breakeven point at $15.35. Shares last…
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Transportation ETF Sees Bearish Options Combo
by Option Review - September 23rd, 2009 5:05 pm
Today’s tickers: IYT, WYN, BBBY, XLU, ERTS, MSFT, ALTH & MT
IYT - Shares of the IYT are currently down 0.5% to $71.43. One option trader appears to have exchanged 19,500 contracts on the ETF to take a bearish stance through expiration in December. The three-legged trade executed on the IYT today exceeds the existing open interest of 13,323 lots by more than 6,000 contracts. The trader likely holds a long position in the underlying shares of the fund because of the placement of the options play. It appears the investor funded a put spread by selling out-of-the-money calls short. He sold 6,500 calls at the December 76 strike for 2.45 apiece. The put spread involved the purchase of 6,500 puts at the December 73 strike for 5.10 each against the sale of 6,500 puts at the lower December 67 strike for 2.70 per contract. The investor is left with a net credit of 5 pennies, which he will ultimately retain in full as long as shares of the IYT remain beneath $76.00 through expiration. Additional gains – or downside protection on a long stock position – have already kicked in for the trader given the breakeven price of $73.00 on the trade. The put spread provides maximum protection if shares decline 6% from the current price to $67.00 by expiration in December. – iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index –
WYN - The hospitality company appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon due to greater than normal call activity. Bullish option traders made moves on the stock despite the slight 0.25% dip in shares to $16.01. Traders looked to the November 20 strike where approximately 1,000 calls look to have been bought for an average premium of 45 cents each. The higher November 22.5 strike had about 8,000 calls coveted by investors who paid an average of 19 cents per contract. Call-buyers at the higher strike may garner profits if shares surge 42% from the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $22.69 by expiration in November. Wyndham has traded beneath the breakeven price described since May 20, 2008. We note that option traders exchanged 21,290 contracts on WYN today, which represents 36% of the existing open interest on the stock of 59,774 lots. – Wyndham Worldwide Corp. –
BBBY - The home-furnishings retailer received an upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’ at FTN Equity today ahead…
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Microsoft Option Traders Geared Up For Disappointment
by Option Review - July 23rd, 2009 4:35 pm
Today’s tickers: MSFT, CMCSK, HIG, PNC, F, WFC, XLU & FXI
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Bears Continue to Prowl Homebuilding Shares
by Option Review - June 15th, 2009 5:04 pm
Today’s tickers: XHB, XLB, APWR, FXI, S, EEM, XLU, UAUA & ACOR
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.
