Posts Tagged ‘XRX’

Fall-Back Thursday – Time To Get Real?

Do you REALLY think this will go on forever?

On the right is the AAPL quarterly chart but it could also be the quarterly chart of SHLD, NFLX, FOSL, STX or PCLN (Bespoke Chart), all of whom are up more than AAPL (which is up 50%) in 2012.  We've discussed PCLN as one of my favorite shorts and we had a good discussion in Member chat last night comparing PCLN to EXPE, who drop the same amount of cash to the bottom line (before buybacks and dividends) but have just 1/8th of the market cap of PCLN.   

Sure you can say that PCLN is twice as good as EXPE (it isn't, but you can say it) but can you say it's 4 times as good?  How about 8 times?  EXPE nets $500M a year – 8 times that is $4Bn – more money than the entire travel sector makes!  How, exactly, will PCLN grow into that valuation?  Eliminate all competition and then grow the sector by 50%?  Well, that's pretty much what AAPL did but how many AAPLs can you have in one market?  

THAT is the problem my friends.  Aside from the macro concerns we discussed in yesterday's post, we have a sort of value mania that is driven by the very real success of one company, much the way we had a dot com boom in the late 90s driven by the very real success of just a few companies.  Back then, everyone was the next QCOM, YHOO, MSFT, CSCO – whichever category you were supposed to be the best.  Qualcomm, in fact, was the best performing tech stock of 1999, gaining 2,619% that year and finishing right about $100.  By the end of July, 2002, they were trading at $10 but hey, what a ride!  

In fact, here's the CNet story from Dec 29th, 1999 titled "Qualcomm Jumps on $1,000 Price Target" and coming on the heels of "Qualcomm to offer Net2Phone services in Eudora" it's no wonder people were super-excited!  AMZN was "only" up 25% that year to $100 but Jeff Bezos was Time's Man of the Year and yes, their business has been growing at an amazing rate for the past 12 years and they have crushed their competition and dominated the sector – and gained less than 6%…
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Fully “Fixed” Friday – Extend and Pretend Edition

SPY 5 MINUTEAll fixed!

Greece is getting another $229Bn at 3.5% with about 30 years to pay it from the EU (ie. Germany and France) and private bond-holders will share about 1/3 of the pain by "voluntarily" renegotiating their own notes.  Sounds like a really great offer, right?  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Another $630Bn of already promised emergency aid has now been places into a very slushy fund that will now allow the EU to throw money at any nation that so much as sneezes – WHETHER OR NOT THEY ASK FOR ASSISTANCE.  This will allow them to play economic Whack-A-Mole, putting out all the little Euro-zone fires until that money runs out (about 6 months at the EU’s current burn rate).

All this fantastic news from Europe has sent the Dollar down to test the 74 line and that was down from 75.37 just ahead of yesterday’s open and that’s a 1.8% drop so we would expect our indexes to go up at least 1.8% – BUT – none of them did.  In fact, the Nasdaq only gained 0.72% and the Russell was up 1.07% and the Dow was up 1.21% and the S&P was up 1.35%.   The NYSE, which had been our perennial laggard, did the best yesterday – gaining a close, but still no cigar 1.57%.  

Will we make it up today or is this an indication that things may not be quite so good as they seem?  After the close yesterday, I did a news round-up for our Members and there is still plenty to worry about and we took a stab at some SPY Weekly (today) $135 puts at .79 for our aggressive $25K Virtual Portfolio on the off-chance they "fix" the US debt ceiling and accidentally make the Dollar strong again.  At the moment, we are still playing our short lines in the futures, where we’ve been scalping nickels and dimes since my 3:23 am Alert to Members (if you are not a Member, you can sign up here), where I said:  

I like shorting the Futures here:  S&P (/ES) at 1,346, Nas (/NQ) 2,415, Dow (/YM) 12,720 and Rut (/TF) 842.6 – as long as 74.20 hold on the Dollar, we should get a bit of a sell off so these are levels to look for as the Dollar heads


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Rumor Mill Spurs Feverish Trading in Alcoa Options

Today’s tickers: AA, BMC, CECO & XRX

AA - Alcoa, Inc. – Frenzied trading in Alcoa options this morning was driven largely by bullish players piling into calls on the aluminum manufacturer with shares in the name rallying as much as 4.3% to as high as $17.96 in the first half of the session. Rumors that Rio Tinto could make a $25.50 a share bid for the U.S. company spurred speculators to the options market, lifting options implied volatility on the stock 31.2% to 35.53% just before 11:30am. Both Rio Tinto and Alcoa are mum on the subject of takeover talks as of now, but investors are making a lot of noise in options land. Volume in Alcoa’s options has topped 220,000 contracts within the first two hours of trading, with investors heavily favoring call options on the aluminum maker. Traders are exchanging more than 8.4 contracts on Alcoa for each single put option in action this morning. Trading traffic is heaviest in the front month where investors are picking up out-of-the-money calls at every available strike price. May $18 strike calls are most active, followed by the May $20 strike calls. Call volume in the May $20 strike calls is currently pushing 30,000 contracts, which is more than two times the number of calls represented in open interest at that strike. Most of the call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.12 apiece, implying an average breakeven price for buyers at $20.12 through May expiration. Continued speculation regarding a potential takeover, or confirmation of such rumors for that matter, would no doubt send premium on the May $20 strike calls higher still. Optimism spread to the June contract calls where buyers of the options are leading the feeding frenzy. Investors traded more than 15,800 call options at the June $21 strike on nearly nonexistent open interest of 241 contracts. Buyers of these calls paid just $0.10 this morning, but the huge spike in implied volatility in conjunction with the rally…
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Options Traders Busy at Newmont Mining Corp.

Today’s tickers: NEM, CALM, XRX, MCD, AEIS & JNPR

NEM - Newmont Mining Corp. – The gold producer’s shares started strong this morning, but earlier gains quickly gave way to losses and shares are currently down 3.00% to stand at $60.75 as of 3:25 pm in New York. Options on gold companies as well as options on a number of ETFs tracking miners and gold producers were very active today after gold prices climbed to new highs this morning. During the first couple of hours of the session one bullish trader utilized long-dated call options to position for Newmont Mining’s shares to potentially rally to new heights by expiration in January 2012. The investor purchased 5,800 deep in-the-money calls at the January 2012 $57.5 strike for a premium of $12.23 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher January 2012 $67.5 strike at a premium of $7.53 apiece. The net cost of putting on the spread amounts to $4.70 per contract. The trader is therefore prepared to make money should NEM’s shares trade above the average breakeven price of $62.20 through January 2012 expiration. Maximum potential profits of $5.30 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Newmont’s shares jump 11.1% over the current price of $60.75 to surpass $67.50 ahead of expiration day.

CALM - Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. – Options on the largest egg seller and distributor in the U.S. are more active than usual today perhaps on news the Jackson, Mississippi-based firm recalled more than a quarter of a million eggs purchased from Ohio Fresh Eggs because they may be contaminated with Salmonella. Cal-Maine Foods was reportedly alerted to contamination issues with the eggs by the FDA this past Friday. CALM’s shares reacted positively to the news this week, rallying more than 12.0% off Monday’s intraday low…
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Industry Acquisition News Spurs Activity in Brookdale Options, Sends Shares Soaring

Today’s tickers: BKD, COH, CNP, JNY, SBUX, XRX & SLB

BKD - Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. – Shares of the operator of senior living communities are up 18.7% at $19.74 this afternoon after earlier rallying as much as 20.4% to an intraday high of $20.03. Brookdale’s shares jumped after Ventas Inc. agreed to purchase the real estate assets of Atria Senior Living Group for $1.5 billion in cash and stock. The acquisition sent shares in Brookdale, the largest owner of senior communities in the U.S., higher on sentiment the stock is undervalued and spurred bullish trading in its options today. One options strategist utilized longer-dated calls and puts to position for shares to continue their ascent. The trader purchased 1,745 calls at the January 2011 $20 strike at a premium of $1.60 each, and sold the same number of puts out at the April 2011 $17.5 strike at a premium of $1.30 apiece. The cost of buying the call options is reduced to just $0.30 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money if BKD’s shares rally above the effective breakeven price of $20.30 ahead of expiration day in January. The sale of the put options is a nice way to cheapen the cost of taking a bullish stance on Brookdale, but is not without its risks. The trader could have 174,500 shares of the underlying stock put to him at $17.50 each if the puts land in-the-money at expiration in April 2011. But, the $1.30 premium per contract received for bearing this risk appears to be a favorable trade off for this bullish player.

COH - Coach, Inc. – The luxury retailer of handbags and accessories popped up on our scanners this morning after one investor dabbled in near-term put options. Coach’s shares are currently up 0.50% to stand at $44.64 as of 12:55 p.m., but earlier rallied more than 1.20% to touch an intraday high of $44.96. The near-term pessimistic play observed in the November contract today may be the work of…
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Bulls Eye Options on MGM Resorts International Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Today’s tickers: MGM, SLV, CISG, GENZ, XRX, JNPR & DD

MGM – MGM Resorts International – The operator of casino resorts attracted bullish options players this afternoon with the price of the underlying stock rallying as much as 3.65% to an intraday high of $11.36. It looks like investors expecting shares to continue higher ahead of August expiration purchased call options. The most optimistic of individuals picked up approximately 5,200 calls at the August $13 strike for an average premium of $0.21 each. Call buyers at this strike make money if MGM’s shares surge 16.3% to trade above the average breakeven price on the upside at $13.21 by expiration day next month. Other bullish traders who are perhaps hoping shares can retain the present rally, but not looking for shares to move much higher ahead of expiration in August, sold 3,000 puts at the August $10 strike for an average premium of $0.37 each. If investors are selling these puts outright, they walk away with the full premium received on the transaction as long as MGM’s shares exceed $10.00 through expiration day. Investors populating MGM Resorts International today exchanged more than 2.2 call options for each single put option in play on the stock as of 3:45 pm ET. MGM is scheduled to report its second-quarter results ahead of the opening bell of August 3, 2010.

SLV – iShares Silver Trust ETF – Shares of the iShares Silver Trust fell more than 2.90% to $17.26 in late afternoon trading inspiring some traders to load up on put options. Fresh put activity was most heavily concentrated in the September contract where current put volume at in- and out-of-the-money strikes exceeds previously existing open interest. Investors bracing for further bearish movement in the price of the SLV’s shares purchased 1,900 in-the-money puts at the September $18 strike for an average premium of $1.17 apiece. In-the-money put buyers are prepared to profit should shares of the fund decline another 2.5% to slip beneath the average breakeven point on the downside at $16.83 by September expiration. Put volume was heaviest at the September $16 strike where more than 16,700 contracts changed hands by 3:25 pm ET. It looks like investors purchased at least 14,400 of those lots for an average premium of $0.29 each. Shares of the fund must fall 9.00% from the current price before September $16 strike put buyers breakeven at a…
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Pessimism Apparent as Goldman-Bears Play with Put Options

Today’s tickers: GS, MU, PEG, CX, XRX, IYT, EEM, HOG, HUM & ALL

GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Posturing in out-of-the-money put options on Goldman Sachs today indicates some investors expect the investment banking firm’s share price could erode substantially ahead of May expiration. Goldman’s shares slipped 1.5% during the trading session to stand at $160.94 as of 2:30 pm (ET). One pessimistic player invested in a debit put spread in order to position for continued bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration next month. The trader picked up approximately 11,700 puts at the May $145 strike for an average premium of $1.91 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower May $120 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the put transaction amounts to $1.75 per contract. The trader makes money if Goldman’s shares fall 11% to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $143.25. Maximum available profits of $23.25 per contract are available to the options player should the financial services firm’s share price plummet 25% to $120.00 ahead of expiration day in May. Other bearish players engaged in plain-vanilla put buying at the June $150 strike where at least 3,600 put contracts were picked up for an average premium of $4.73 each. Put-buyers at this strike stand ready to accrue profits if Goldman Sachs’ share price slips 9.75% lower to breach the average breakeven point at $145.27 by June expiration.

MU – Micron Technology Inc. – A large-volume short strangle play employed on the manufacturer of semiconductor devices today suggests one big options player expects Micron’s shares to trade within a specified range through expiration in October. Micron Technology’s shares are up 0.10% to $10.81 as of 2:50 pm (ET). It looks like one trader sold approximately 24,000 puts at the October $9.0 strike for a premium of $0.73 each, in combination with the sale of about the same number of calls at the higher October $12 strike for $0.98 apiece. Gross premium pocketed by the strangle-strategist amounts to $1.71 per contract. The investor keeps the full amount of premium received today as long as Micron’s shares trade within the boundaries of the strike prices described through expiration day. Short positions assumed in both call and put options expose the trader to losses in the event that Micron’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price…
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Strangle Strategist Tightens Grip on JPMorgan

Today’s tickers: JPM, TIVO, RHT, UTX, CSCO, CI, BA, XRX, DIS, AKS & M

JPM – JPMorgan Chase & Co. – A long strangle enacted on JPMorgan today indicates one investor is expecting the firm to experience a significant shift in the price of its shares by June expiration. The investment banking and financial services giant realized a 1% rally in share price during the current session to $41.94. The investor initiated the strangle strategy by purchasing 9,000 calls at the June $46 strike for a premium of $1.06 apiece and by picking up 9,000 puts at the June $36 strike for $0.96 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $2.02 per contract. Strangle-players benefit from drastic moves in share price, but lose out if the value of the stock stagnates. In this specific trade, the investor profits if JPM’s shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $48.02 by expiration, or if shares trade below the lower breakeven point at $33.98, by June expiration. The trader is looking for increased volatility in the price of the underlying shares, but also may benefit from higher options implied volatility. Moves higher in options implied volatility corresponds with greater option premium on both calls and puts. Thus, the investor could potentially sell the strangle at a profit ahead of expiration day if combined premium on the trade exceeds the $2.02 per contract paid today. We note that JPM’s shares have not exceeded $47.47 in the past year, but did trade as low as $14.96 back on March 6, 2009.

TIVO – TiVo, Inc. – Shares of the innovator of digital-video recording services surged as much as 61.30% to an intraday high of $16.42, the highest price recorded for TiVo’s shares in at least five years. TiVo was named the victor today after a U.S. appeals court ruled that Dish Network Corp. and EchoStar Corp. are “still infringing its patent and should stop providing digital-video recording services.” Options traders had a field day with the news and exchanged upwards of 275,300 contracts on the stock by 3:10 pm (ET). Today’s options trading volume on TiVo represents just under 80% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 348,203 contracts. Investors populated the stock with a plethora of trading strategies. Some traders banked profits on the rally, while others employed the use of strangles. Plain-vanilla call buying and put selling…
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Fall Down Friday – Stop the Week, We Want To Get Off!

Boy, when sentiment shifts – it REALLY shifts!

Suddenly nothing is good enough for this market.  A beat from GOOG send the stock plummeting, massive earnings at GS sent the stock lower even before Obama read them the riot act (now called the "Volker Rule").  On the one hand, it’s all an overreaction but, on the very large other hand, it’s about freakin’ time this market finally acted normally and pulled back a little because 10,700 was pretty irrational given the underlying fundamentals

On the whole, we’re loving it as we went to cash last week and played bearish into the drop.  Last week I detailed how we had a great time day-trading in both directions and this week we hit it again with our upside DIA play on Wednesday (a 26% winner on the day) and yesterday I sent out a morning Alert to Members at 9:50 saying: "I am for shorting into this morning spike as it’s nonsense, especially this run in the Nas – most likely it will reverse but I’d like to see a clear move back to resistance first.  QQQQ $45 puts give you great leverage at .56 and you can use $46.20 on the Qs as a stop out, looking for .70+ on the day."  We hit .85 by lunch and pulled it just off the day’s high for a nice 51% gain on the day. 

I point this out both to encourage you to subscribe to our Newsletter (all 19,000 subscribers got yesterday’s free Alert) as well as to emphasize that WE DO NOT CARE which way the market goes.  Yes, I am very bearish on the short-term economy as I feel we are overbought and due for a correction but I also think we are probably OK over the longer term and we are taking advantage of these dips to pick up some long positions.  We are opportunistic players and we are investing along the premise I laid out in my 2010 outlook, which was titled "A Tale of Two Economies" as we see a great divide forming between the top 10% and the companies that service them and the bottom 90% of our population who are in dire straights, as are the companies that rely on selling to the masses to make a living.  

For an example of "Rich Company/Poor Company" just look at the earnings of two ends of…
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Mixed Sentiment on BAC Pits Bulls Against Bears

Today’s tickers: BAC, XRX, XLF, CAR, XLU, BIG, SLM, TTWO, MRVL & TSN

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – Investors employed two contradictory option strategies in the February contract on Bank of America today. One trader initiated a large bearish risk reversal while the other put on a bullish call spread. BAC’s shares rallied 3.5% this afternoon to $16.30. The pessimistic investor appears to have sold 30,000 in-the-money call options at the February 15 strike for 1.74 apiece in order to purchase 30,000 puts at the same strike for 84 cents each. The reversal results in a net credit of 90 cents per contract to the trader. Perhaps this individual expects shares to decline beneath the $15-level by expiration so he may retain the full 90 cent credit on the trade. Bullish trading in the same February 2010 contract suggests shares are set to rally higher in the next few months. An optimistic investor purchased 10,000 calls at the February 17 strike for 89 cents each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher February 19 strike for 34 cents apiece. The net cost of the spread amounts to 55 cents per contract. Maximum potential profits of 1.45 are available to the investor if shares increase more than 16.5% from the current price to a new 52-week high of $19.00 by expiration in February.

XRX – Xerox Corp. – One investor utilized the risk reversal strategy in order to take a long-term bullish stance on Xerox. Shares moved 1% higher this afternoon to $7.85. It looks like the trader sold 20,000 puts at the January 2011 7.5 strike for a premium of 1.15 each to partially finance the purchase of 20,000 calls at the same strike for 1.60 apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 45 cents per contract. The investor profits if shares surpass the breakeven price of $7.95 within the next 12 months to expiration.

XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Shares of the XLF rallied 0.75% in afternoon trading to stand at $14.46. Bullish options activity on the fund suggests shares are likely to appreciate within the next several months. Optimistic investors purchased 69,000 in-the-money call options at the March 14 strike for an average premium of 1.36 per contract. XLF shares must rise 6% from the current price before profits accumulate above the breakeven point at $15.35. Shares last…
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Phil's Favorites

The digital economy is becoming ordinary. Best we understand it

 

The digital economy is becoming ordinary. Best we understand it

The digital economy includes small holder farmers being able to access finance on a mobile device without having to go to a bank. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Brian Armstrong, University of the Witwatersrand

The digital economy has been getting a lot of attention, with increasingly strong headlines offering apocalyptic as well as breathtakingly exciting scenarios. Some warn of job losses due to automation, some wonder at the things digital technology can do. And then there’s real scepticism about whether this will translate into delivering to people who need it most.

With all of this discuss...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Zero Hedge

WTF Chart Of The Day: Bonds Ain't Buying It

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Presented with little comment aside to ask (rhetorically), why - amid the unknown parameters of what appears to be escalating into a global pandemic, and ongoing weakness in economic data despite the 'trade deal' - are stocks soarng to record highs as bond yields collapse to 3-month lows?

Source: Bloomberg

Fun-durr-mentals don't matter...

S...



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Insider Scoop

5 Software-Application Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Atlassian Corporation, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEAM) stock surged 9.7% to $145.50 during Thursday's after-market session. According to the most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on January 13, the current rating is at Overweight.

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (NYSE:DBD) shares increased by 8.1% to $11.48. The most recent rating by DA Davidson, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $17.00.

Telaria, Inc. (NYSE:TLRA) stock rose 4...



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The Technical Traders

January 2018 Stock Market Repeat - Yikes!

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team caught a very interesting price pattern that correlates with the Put/Call ratio.  We are alerting our friends and followers with this research post of this exciting, yet unconfirmed, set up today.

In late 2017, the US stock market rallied from July through December with moderately low volatility throughout this span of time.  Near the end of 2017, the US stock market price activity stalled, then began a renewed price rally in early 2018 (see the first BLUE & YELLOW BOX on the chart below). Then, in January 2018, a very broad market reversion event took place which ultimately resulted in a very broad market correction in October through December 2018 of just over 20%.

...

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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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