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Thursday, April 25, 2024

Top Trades for Fri, 17 Apr 2020 10:11 – SQQQ Hedge

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Top Trades for Fri, 17 Apr 2020 10:11 – SQQQ Hedge
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Good morning!

I'm always happy when I find a cheap hedge…

Note the TSLA play above and the SQQQ addition for the STP – it might not have been finished when you first viewed the post:

  • Tesla (TSLA) – They are now at the point where I'd rather short them so let's take the money and run on this one.  In fact, someone is willing to pay us $100 for the June $800 calls so let's sell 2 of those for $20,000 and buy 3 Jan $800 ($220)/June 800 ($152) bear put spreads for net $68 ($20,400) so we're in the spread for net $400 if all goes well and, if TSLA is below $800 in June, whatever premium value remains in Jan will be our profit.
  • Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) – The Nasdaq has been very strong and this is a 3x ultra-short so, even at $13, a 20% drop bumps us 60% to $21 and that would put our $10 calls $11 in the money for $115,500 and the current net is $10,625 so we have $104,875 of downside protection in this position but we can sell 100 June $25 calls for $1 ($10,000) and buy 100 June $13 calls for $2.25 ($22,500) and that will give us another $120,000 worth of protection and, if SQQQ does spike up, we can cash out the long calls quickly because the short calls will be covered by the 2022 $10s.  Not bad to add net $107,500 worth of protection for $12,500 – I know I will sleep better over the weekend!  

June $13s came in at $2.30 but the $25s are trading at 0.85 and that's not a compromise I'd make – I'd rather sell the $23s (now $1) than pay extra for a spread we hopefully don't need.  So my plan is to wait and see if we get the $1 for the $25s and, if not, then look at alternatives – which can include selling longer months, like 40 Jan $30s for $2.60 (still $10,000).

TSLA June $800s are $108, so no worries there.  The $800 puts are $141 though and the Jan $800 puts are still $222 so yes to selling the short calls but waiting a bit on the others to see if we get better prices. 

/CL/Ravi – I already bought June contracts (2 for $25) yesterday on the dip but still have 2 May contracts (now 4 as I added 2 more at $17.50 to average $19.50 – now happy to get out close to even if possible but out today) as I was greedy and waiting for $20.50, which never came so I'm down about $5K on those.  If $25 doesn't hold I'm out and I'll get back in on a cross back over or $22.50.

/NG still flying and /RB paying us well.  I regret not flipping my /CLs to more /RB – it was a safer bet. 

Big Chart – We need another index over the 50 dma to confirm a rally.