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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Top Trades for Fri, 28 Nov 2014 09:58

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Top Trades for Fri, 28 Nov 2014 09:58
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USO/$25KP, STP, Nicha – I'd like to see where things settle down next week.  In the $25KP, the 10 April $28 calls have dropped to $1.35 with USO at $26.33.  As a roll, I'm looking at selling the July $26 calls for $2.50 and rolling to the $22 calls at $5 for + $1.15, which would put us in the $4 spread for net $3.80 + $1.15 = $4.95 and we could DD at $2.50 for net $3.73 and the upside on 20 would still be 50% but only if oil holds $69, of course.  I certainly like that spread as a new trade, since it's got a 60% upside from a $2.50 entry if oil holds $69.  

If you buy $100 worth of gas a month and want to keep paying under $3 per gallon ($800 over 8 months), you can hedge by buying 1 of the July $22/26 bull call spread for $250 and, if oil stays where it is or higher, you get +$150 back (almost 20%) and the only way you lose $250 is if USO drops $4 (15%) in which case your cost of gas should go down 15% – that's how you use a hedge to lock in a favorable price!  

In the STP, unfortunately, we got more aggressive with 20 of the USO Jan $29 calls and those poor things have dropped to 0.31 and we're down about $1,500.  As above, I would rather wait until next week to see what sticks before rolling (or quitting).  

In our Top Trade Alert from Wednesday, our premise for a quick bounce is blown and we had:

  • Jan $27/29 bull call spread at $1.05.  The Jan $27s are now 0.92 so I would roll them to the July $22/26 bull call spread at $2.50, salvaging most of the value of the long calls, and leave the short Jan $29s (0.30) to expire with a stop at 0.45.  
  • April $28/31 bull call spread was $1.20, the April $28s are $1.30 so same thing, roll to July $22/26 spread at $2.50 to salvage the money and short April $31s are $0.50 and I'd roll those to the short Jan $29s, as they expire quicker.  
  • We also discussed offsetting those trades with the short 2016 $22 puts at $1.10.  Those are now $1.40, so down 27% looks bad but, realistically, USO is still at $26.28 – miles above the safe zone.  Also, the 2017 $20 puts are $1.40, so that's the roll, if necessary – so no reason to worry about those.