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Friday, April 26, 2024

Top Trades for Mon, 02 Mar 2020 15:27 – WBA

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Top Trades for Mon, 02 Mar 2020 15:27 – WBA
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We are going back to the well on an old favorite, Walgreens (WBA) as they are now too cheap to resist:

WBA/Coulter – I love them down here.  We already have them.

WBA/Winston – I think this might be a chance for us to add them in the new portfolios. The "disappointment" is $1.37/share vs $1.41 expected though 2020 guidance remains at $5.93 per $55 share with Retail Pharmacy Sales up 1.6%.  Though Gross Profit is down 5.2% from last year in a tougher environment, it's already been offset by cost savings so Net Profit is overall flat. 

I think $60 is the right target for WBA so we'll let them find a floor and then make a post-earnings play though I'm keeping an eye on the 2022 $50 puts as they are almost $6 for a net $44 entry, which would put the p/e below 8.

WBA definitely belongs back in the LTP so let's:

  • Sell 10 WBA 2022 $45 puts for $7 ($7,000) 
  • Buy 20 WBA 2022 $40 calls for $9.65 ($19,300)
  • Sell 10 WBA 2022 $55 calls for $4.50 ($4,500)

That's net $7,800 on the $30,000 spread so the upside is $22,200 (284%) but lots of room to sell calls on a bounce or, if things do get worse, we can sell more calls and roll the $40s lower.  Lots of options.

Untradeable/Bert – Best to watch and wait on a bounce day like this.  I know it feels like we're missing out but so many times these are just head-fakes.   

A lot of volume today (174M) but only 1/2 of Friday so don't want to read too much into the bounce.