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Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Top Trades for Mon, 09 Jul 2018 12:26 – MDLZ

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Top Trades for Mon, 09 Jul 2018 12:26 – MDLZ
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24,750!

/SI/Malsg – Hopefully just starting a nice move but I don't think the Dollar will go much lower:

MDLZ/Learner – Good call actually.  Range has been between $39 (not counting spike) and $45 recently and even going back to 2015, the same range had generally held.  It's right in the middle at $42.34 and it's certainly a stock we don't mind getting "stuck" owning so we can make a bullish butterfly on it and we certainly could use a new one so let's add this to our Butterfly Portfolio:

  • Sell 10 MDLZ 2020 $40 puts for $2.65 ($2,650) 
  • Buy 20 MDLZ 2020 $40 calls for $5.55 ($11,100)
  • Sell 20 MDLZ 2020 $47 calls for $2.25 ($4,500) 
  • Sell 5 MDLZ Aug $42 calls for $1.40 ($700)
  • Sell 5 MDLZ Aug $42 puts for 0.88 ($440) 

So our net entry is $3,950 and we have 557 days to sell until 2020 expiration and Aug expiration is 39 days away so we're selling about 1/14th of our time for $1,140.  14 sales of $1,140 is going to be $15,960 of premium sales ahead of us, which is a nice return (and these are very cautious quarter-sales to start with) and we also can make up to $14,000 back on the spread if MDLZ finishes at $47 so there's potential here for a $24,000 gain (600%) if all goes perfectly – but it never does.  Let's just say we have a very high degree of confidence in this trade making us some money! 

Thanks Learner, it's about time we added another Butterfly play!  

Cannabis/Soma – My top cannabis play right now is the company PSW Investments is working with (private equity).  I just met with them in NY this weekend and I think they are perfectly positioned to take advantage of an exploding market.  If you (or anyone else) is interested, let Greg know (admin at philstockworld dot com) right away as we're putting a deal together for them asap.  

Other than that, I like MO the best as a long-term play – even the guys I was talking too, who've been on the medical side for many years, think it's only a matter of time before MO buys up dozens of players and rolls out a national product.  One of the things I like about our guys is they are willing to position themselves to be sold – not looking to fight it out and that translates into a nice cash-out for PSW Investments!