OK, without getting into a whole thing, here's the 5% Rule Numbers (for the Indexes, not the Futures):

• Dow 18,200 to 17,850 was almost exactly a 2.5% drop so of course we bounce 90 points and call it 100 for 17,950 (weak) and 18,050 (strong).
• S&P 2,120 to 2,070 also just about 2.5% so easy math with the 50 point drop giving us 10-point bounces to 2,080 (weak) and 2,090 (strong).  
• Nasdaq 5,000 to 4,925 is just 1.5% so bullish if it holds but distorted by AAPL.  The proper 2.5% drop would be 125 to 4,875 and the bounces would be 4,900 (weak) and 4,925 (strong) so holding the strong bounce line on the Nas gives bullish hope to all the indexes BUT it's totally distorted by AAPL today so, on the whole, we have to just ignore it.  
• NYSE 11,100 to 10,825 is 2.5% too (isn't that amazing?) and that's 325 so call it 75 bounces to keep things clean and we'll need to see 10,900 (weak) but let's say 10,950 is strong but then nothing is strong if they can't clear the Must Hold line at 11,000, right?  
• Russell 1,240 to 1,210 is 2.5% and we didn't go that low but we started from higher so I'm still going to use them.  That's 30 points so bounces are 6 and that's 1,216 and 1,221 which is strong so call the Russell at strong along with the Nas and we'll see if those two are failing or the other 3 are catching up.  

Notice how the Nasdaq went crazy in Feb and left everyone else in the dust.  We'll see if the AAPL event (1pm) is enough to help them keep the leadership.  

ABX/Jabob – ABX actually could be a fun way to play gold iWatches.  Turns out China and India is where they expect huge sales as those guys love gold.  We're at a good point in the month to make a bull play on ABX for March and the $10.50 calls are 0.79 and you can sell the $11s for 0.45 and that's net 0.32 for a 0.50 spread that's 100% in the money and can make 47% in 11 days if ABX holds $11. 

That's certainly worth a toss in the $25KP so how about we pick up 10 for $320 and see if we can't make a quick $180 next week.  

The main danger of this trade is that the gold iWatch only turns out to be plated – that would kill a gold rally fast.  If the watch does, in fact, have an ounce of gold, I think the speculative frenzy into this weekend will give us a nice pop.