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Top Trades for Mon, 14 Mar 2022 11:11 – BIIB

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Top Trades for Mon, 14 Mar 2022 11:11 – BIIB
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Patient advocacy groups in the U.S. have stepped up their efforts for a favorable decision on the coverage for Aduhelm and similar Alzheimer’s drugs as the developers await a final decision next month.

Backed by millions of dollars in ad spending, local adverts have already come up during the Sunday morning political shows, and a public protest is scheduled for this week, Reuters reported Sunday.

In January, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed to severely restrict access to a group of Alzheimer’s medications, designed to target the amyloid plaques of patients’ brains, only for those undergoing clinical studies. A final determination on coverage is scheduled for April 11.

The decision applies to not only Aduhelm but also other Alzheimer’s drugs currently being developed by Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY).

The proposal followed the U.S. approval of Aduhelm developed by Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) and Eisai (OTCPK:ESALY) (OTCPK:ESALF), which led to widespread criticism last year.

USAgainstAlzheimer's, one of the biggest patient advocacy groups for Alzheimer’s in the U.S., has said it is funding adverts in the Washington D.C. and Baltimore areas targeting the CMS, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the White House, and Congress.

"We want to put a face on the individuals that are affected by this Medicare decision," USAgainstAlzheimer's Chairman George Vradenburg said, adding that the group plans to spend millions in the campaign.

The program, featuring Alzheimer's patients, is set to run on social media, print ads on bus stops, and other transportation in the Washington area, with many having the tagline, "Alzheimer's patients can't wait."

Meanwhile, the Alliance for Aging Research has organized a protest where patients, caregivers, and others will gather near HHS headquarters in Washington on Tuesday to pressure Medicare to reconsider the decision.

Soon after the proposal in January, Biogen (BIIB) sought the support of doctors and patient advocates to send public submissions in support of a less restrictive coverage decision.

I like BIIB down at $200 as it's $29Bn and they are good for $2.2Bn in profits so 13x earnings is fine by me.  Consider the Alzheimer's drug a bonus – even though it could be a blockbuster that doubles the company.  For our Future is Now Portfolio, let's:

  • Sell 5 BIIB 2024 $200 puts for $40 ($20,000)
  • Buy 20 BIIB 2024 $250 calls for $28 ($56,000) 
  • Sell 20 BIIB 2024 $300 calls for $20 ($40,000) 

That's a net credit of $4,00 on the $100,000 spread and yes, it's out of the money but we can always spend some money to roll down the longs or sell some short calls if we get a pop.  Our commitment is to buy $100,000 worth of BIIB at the current price, so we won't be too tolerant if $200 doesn't hold.