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Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Top Trades for Mon, 22 Aug 2016 13:37 – AAPL

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Top Trades for Mon, 22 Aug 2016 13:37 – AAPL
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Meanwhile, AAPL is at $108.36 and is dropping $8.50 to the bottom line in 2016 and they have $35 per share in CASH!!!, so saying they have a p/e of 12.7 is an overstatement.  If we are in a bubble rally, AAPL will catch up eventually and, if we do turn down and AAPL drops 20% to $85 – the p/e will be under 10 and more like 5 if you take the cash into account and it would be the best stock you could buy in the crash. 

So, as usual, AAPL is my favorite stock in the World.  1/3 of all Americans own IPhones – what other brand of any kind has that kind of penetration?  Coke is one that comes to mind.  Only 350M Rubik's cubes have been sold since the 80s – not even close to 1Bn IPhones.   Only 500M Harry Potter books.  350M PlayStations is very good too but you get the idea.  IPhones are pretty much the most successful consumer product of all time and those things don't tend to just disappear – people are pretty brand-loyal unless you really mess up (new Coke).

Anyway, AAPL's dividend is a sad $2.08 (2%) but one day they might make a special dividend to return some cash and you could suddenly get $10 or so dropped in your pocket.  The stock would drop too but MSFT did it once and it was great for shareholders long-term.  

You can sell AAPL 2018 $95 puts for $7.50 to net in at $87.50 and that's a very fair price and, if you want to be more aggressive, you can buy the $100 ($16.35)/$125 ($5.50) bull call spread for $10.85 and that would net you into the $25 spread that's $8.20 in the money for $3.35 with an upside profit potential of $21.65 (646%) in 515 days.  

If you think you are missing something, it's a good thing to do to put some of your cash to work but I do think we're going to correct (and the market is already down again on today's roller coaster) so I want to be PATIENT but I know a lot of you feel you are missing something and, hopefully, a 646% return on some of your cash will take the edge off…