LB/Calch – They finally decided to head higher after earnings and I hope the worst is over but HOPE is not a valid investing strategy and neither is needing a 50% pop to get even!
You have $26,656 worth of stock at $19.04 and you are down about $11,760 so the real question is – given you have decided to stick with LB, what's the best use to make of $26,656 to get $11,760 back?
First of all, you can sell 20 of the 2022 $17.50 puts for $5 so that's $10,000 right there and worst case if assigned is $35,000 less $10,000 is $25,000 so, if you cash in your stock now and sell 20 2022 $17 puts, you get $10,000 of your $11,760 back and are obligated for not one penny more than you are now and you drop your hurdle from $27 to $15 (44% lower). Would seem very silly not to do that, right?
Since you now have the potential to own 2,000 shares at net $36,760 ($18.38) there's no point in keeping your 1,500 shares so that's done. Now, the question is will you be happy to be (almost) even at $15 or are you now greedier than that and willing to put more money to work?
You put $38,360 (max risk) to work and got nothing for it last year so let's say it would be a shame not to make 20% so let's see how we can go for $10,000 without adding too much risk. I see the 2022 $15 ($7)/20 ($4.60) bull call spreads are $2.40 per $5 so $4,800 (20) put to work there will pay $5,200 at $20 and 20 will pay goal at $10,400 but I would not over-commit – you can always take 20 now and add the $17.50/$22.50 bull call spread once you regret not taking 40 of the $15/20s in the first place.
So, the end result is that I'd cash the loss and pick up, as a new trade:
- Sell 20 short LB 2022 $17.50 puts at $5 ($10,000)
- Buy 20 LB 2022 $15 calls at $7 ($14,000)
- Sell 20 LB 2022 $20 calls at $4.60 ($9,200)
That's a net $5,200 credit on the $10,000 spread so, as a new trade, it's got $15,200 (292%) of upside potential if LB is over $20 in Jan, 2022.
LB has been excruciatingly slow in their turnaround but, with the market cap down to $5Bn at $19 and earnings well above $500M (1/10th) – I don't mind waiting patiently for them to pull things together get back to the 10% profits they used to drop to the bottom line on their very steady $13Bn in earnings.
Year End 02nd Feb | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | TTM | 2020E | 2021E | CAGR / Avg | |
$m | 10,773 | 11,454 | 12,154 | 12,574 | 12,632 | 13,237 | 13,060 | 12,993 | 13,229 | +4.2% | |
$m | 1,743 | 1,953 | 2,192 | 2,003 | 1,728 | 1,237 | 976.8 | -6.6% | |||
$m | 903 | 1,042 | 1,253 | 1,158 | 983 | 644 | 366 | 666.2 | 665.3 | -6.5% | |
$ | 3.05 | 3.50 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 3.11 | 2.31 | 1.30 | -5.4% | |||
$ | 3.05 | 3.50 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 3.11 | 3.23 | 2.80 | 2.38 | 2.38 | +1.2% | |
% | +8.7 | +14.7 | +20.5 | -5.7 | -21.9 | +4.0 | +8.7 | -26.3 | -0.38 | ||
x | 5.57 | 6.43 | 7.55 | 7.58 | |||||||
x | n/a | n/a | n/a | 7.83 | |||||||
Profitability |
Bath and Body Works is growing nicely while Victoria's Secret is down a bit but Pink (VS kids) is doing very well withing so they only need to fix 1/2 of VS.
Also, they are paying out a $650M annual dividend – that's a bit wasteful as it's more than profits. So, if they do cut it – I'll be happy to buy from whoever is dumping.