19.8 C
New York
Thursday, May 2, 2024

Top Trades for Thu, 12 Sep 2019 13:47 – TCNNF

0
Top Trades for Thu, 12 Sep 2019 13:47 – TCNNF
psw-placeholder

We don't do a lot of straight stock picks but I really like Truelieve at $9.15.

TCNNF has no options but it's the biggest medical marijuana company in Florida and well-positioned to expand.  $9.15 is $1Bn in market cap and, amazingly, they actually make money:

Keep in mind this is medical ONLY and those are the numbers.  They already have 29 stores around Florida and if Florida goes recreational in 2020, all they have to do is wait for the customers to line up.  Florida's patient count is just 238,000 out of 21M so 1% are registered for medical so legalization can go more than 10x (13% of people in CA smoke) and then there's the tourist trade!  

This came up because we're (New Age/PSWI) doing a competitive analysis for our own operation in Florida and we think we might be better off working with Trulieve (just having them carry our stuff in their stores) than going against them.

Actually CA is on the low end, surprisingly.  Alaska has the highest percentage of pot-smokers (of legal states) at 16%, tied with Vermont and followed by Colorado & New Hampshire (15%) but Mass (14.5%) is only starting this year and coming up fast so I think they may take the crown next year.  Maine is 13.5% – that's kind of funny as I never met anyone in Maine I would have thought was smoking pot (outside the slopes, of course). 

By the way, notice that gross profit as a percent of revenue – that's why I love this business!   There are tons of opportunities like this for our Cannabis Fund to invest in but even Trulieve is late-stage for us – as they already IPO'd but still a bargain in the realm of public MJ companies.