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Top Trades for Thu, 23 Aug 2018 11:01 – LB

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Top Trades for Thu, 23 Aug 2018 11:01 – LB
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LB/Batman – You're right, they are not instilling any confidence, down to $28.50 now.  I don't think there's much they can do or say though as they are still transitioning and a new CEO is coming in for Pink, and they don't want to step on her plans.  The outgoing CEO made some really crappy statements too – I get the impression she's not leaving by choice.  Victoria's Secret is 2/3 of the business and Body Works 1/3 so I'm sure there's always been a rivalry and, essentially, they are replacing Denise with Amy BECAUSE Amy was putting up better numbers in her, smaller division. 

FNSR/Albo – Up 7% now, hopefully some other joker can downgrade them! 

Image result for russian underwear model womanLB/Batman – Analyst day?  Hopefully they can stay out of the spotlight for a Q or two and simply hit their numbers without any more "adjustments".  Sales were there so the bulk of the problems are internal yet people are trading off the narrative that Victoria Secret is no longer a thing.  I'll tell you that Pink is very much THE thing for young teens and the women I know still buy Victoria Secret stuff, despite the "Me Too" movement.  For some reason, they want to be empowered but not if they have to wear these.

Founded in 1977, Victoria’s Secret has long been the leader in the women’s lingerie market, with $1.1 billion in revenues in 2015. IBISWorld analysts put Victoria’s Secret share of the entire lingerie market at 61.8%.

So it's hard for them to grow share from there yet, somehow, revenues do keep rising, though slowly:

Financial Summary
Year End 03rd Feb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
Revenue $m 10,459 10,773 11,454 12,154 12,574 12,632 12,822 13,081 13,470 +3.8%
Operating Profit $m 1,573 1,743 1,953 2,192 2,003 1,728 1,674     +1.9%
Net Profit $m 753 903 1,042 1,253 1,158 983 937 769.4 783.4 +5.5%
EPS Reported $ 2.54 3.05 3.50 4.22 3.98 3.11 2.97     +4.2%
EPS Normalised $ 2.81 3.05 3.50 4.22 3.98 3.11 2.97 2.77 2.85 +2.1%
EPS Growth % -7.2 +8.7 +14.7 +20.5 -5.7 -21.9 -21.5 -11.0 +3.01  
PE Ratio x           10.5 10.9 11.7 11.4  
PEG x           n/a n/a 3.91 4.36
Profitability

That's why they don't have and don't deserve a 20x multiple (or 40x the way this market is) but 12x $3 is $36 so, assuming now growth and a little bit of efficiency, they are ridiculously undervalued.  

And, as this point, they are paying a $2.40 dividend on a $28.65 stock so it's almost worth flipping our short puts to stock.  In the LTP, we sold 15 2020 $37.50 puts for $9.70 so net $27.80 is almost the current price but we never thought we'd actually get to buy them for that!  If we convert to stock at $27.80 and then sell the 2020 $27.50 calls for $5 and 15 2020 $30 puts for $6.50 we drop our basis to net $16.30, called away with a 50% gain at $27.50 and collecting $2.40 (14.7%) dividends while we wait.  Oh, the horror!  

Jabob is doing almost as good a job at keeping people from taking advantage of the dip now as he did back in May.  Maybe he'll be able to save people from the next 20% run as well….

LOGM/Yodi – I think these cloud companies are going to go through the same down cycle as the storage companies did once they hit saturation.  It's the same thing, everyone is pouring money into the cloud and, eventually, there will be an overcapacity and/or the next new thing comes along and suddenly they are just a commodity play.  Of course, over the long run, VMW and NTAP pivoted to the cloud, so they are good again.  I just think a bit over-enthusiastic now.  

LB/Grass – That's crazy but $13 is way too much, obviously, as it's net $33 with the stock at $28.50.  Bid/ask on the $20s is now $9/9.70 with the last at $9.40.

LB/Japar – At this particular second, I like:

  • Sell 10 LB 2020 $30 puts for $6.40 ($6,400) 
  • Buy 20 LB 2020 $20 calls for $9.40 ($18,800) 
  • Sell 15 LB 2020 $27.50 calls for $6 ($7,500) 

That's net $4,900 on the $15,000 spread that's 3/4 covered so you have room to sell 5-10 short calls like (but not now) the Jan $30s at $2 so, even if you just sold 5 for $1,000, that's 148 days out of 512 there is to sell so, even at that pace, you could knock your net down to $1,900 on a spread that's 100% in the money to start.