RUT/Jasu – Those are the 20% drops, not the bottoms, so RUT is simply way below the 20% correction I thought the others would be able to hold.
MT/Coulter – Tarrifs and Global slowdown are not good for MT at all so this is not their year and next year is not likely to be their year but $20 is $20Bn I can SHOW YOU THE MONEY!!!
| Year End 31st Dec | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | TTM | 2018E | 2019E | CAGR / Avg | |
| $m | 84,213 | 79,440 | 79,282 | 63,578 | 56,791 | 68,679 | 75,416 | 77,610 | 76,267 | -4.0% | |
| $m | -2,645 | 1,197 | 3,034 | -4,161 | 4,161 | 5,434 | 6,731 | ||||
| $m | -3,352 | -2,545 | -1,086 | -7,946 | 1,779 | 4,568 | 4,995 | 5,727 | 5,015 | ||
| $ | -3.92 | -2.63 | -1.11 | -7.99 | 1.86 | 4.46 | 4.89 | ||||
| $ | 0.17 | -1.98 | -0.94 | -4.87 | 1.44 | 3.90 | 4.84 | 5.49 | 4.87 | +86.4% | |
| % | -91.6 | +170.2 | +21.4 | +40.7 | -11.4 | ||||||
| x | 5.38 | 4.34 | 3.83 | 4.32 | |||||||
| x | 0.13 | 0.11 | n/a | n/a | |||||||
| Profitability | |||||||||||
So, really, I don't give a flying F what other people think, MT is a BUYBUYBUY down here for sure. In the LTP, we rolled down on 10/19 to 40 2021 $20 calls with 10 short 2020 $30 puts and, of course, we already bought back short calls we had sold along the way so about even on the overall trade and not in a hurry to cover.
As a new trade on MT, I would go with:
- Sell 10 MT 2021 $20 puts for $4 ($4,000)
- Buy 25 MT 2021 $20 calls for $5 ($12,500)
- Sell 25 MT 2021 $27 calls for $2.60 ($6,500)
That's net $2,000 on the $17,500 spread so $15,000 (750%) worth of upside at $27+ makes for a nice little trade.
