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Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Top Trades for Thu, 30 Nov 2017 14:55 – SQQQ, TZA, SVXY

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Top Trades for Thu, 30 Nov 2017 14:55 – SQQQ, TZA, SVXY
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Hedging Adjustments:

In the STP we have:

  • 60 short SQQQ June $30s at $2, now $1.50 
  • 100 SQQQ March $21 calls at $3.20, now $2.55  

Not too much damage on these since our 11/14 adjustment and now we can spend 0.95 to roll our 100 March $21 calls to 100 June $21 calls at $3.50 and that will cost us $9,500 and we can pay for that by selling 40 of the June $28 calls for $2.10 ($8,400).  We're capping the return on the spread to $82,000 but, since the market never goes down, I want to spend as little as possible on the hedges.  

We also have:

  • 200 TZA April $11 calls at $2.65, now $1.90 
  • 100 short TZA April $16 calls at $1.10, now 0.66 
  • 40 short TZA Jan $20 puts at $4.05, now $8

TZA is way down at $12 now and we can cash our April $11s and roll them to 200 July $10 ($2.80)/18 ($1) bull call spreads at $1.80 so a small credit and we'll put a stop on 50% of the short April $16s at 0.80 and the rest at $1.  The net of the spread was $25,800 and we're putting $1,000 back in pocket on the roll (it's not an emergency, get a good price!) And we can set stops on 50 of the short April $16s at 0.80 ($4,000) and $1 ($5,000) so the most we'd put in extra is $9,000 but we're getting 3 more months of time and $1 better in strike ($20,000 into the money) and we've widened the spread from $5 to $8 ($60,000 more but it would have to be a hell of a crash!).  And, of course, we'd only be putting the extra $9,000 in if things started going our way for a change.  

In the OOP, we have:

60 SQQQ June $20 ($4)/$28 ($2.10) bull call spreads at $1.90 ($11,400), now $3.80/1.90 so even and SQQQ is at $22, so this one is fine for now.  

  • 20 SVXY March $105 ($20)/$80 (10) bear put spreads at $10 ($20,000), now $12.25/5.25 ($7 = $14,000)
  • 15 short SVXY Dec $80 puts at $12.90 ($19,350), now 0.42 ($630) 

So down $6,000 and up $18,720 is net up $12,720 – we finally figured out how to profit from the VIX!   We'll want to keep this going so we may as well roll the 20 March $105 puts ($12.25) to 20 June $115 ($22.50)/90 ($12.75) bear put spreads at $9.75 so we're pocketing $2.50 ($5,000) but we should also roll the 20 short March $80 puts at $5.25 ($10,100) to 15 short Feb $90 puts at $5.60 ($8,400) so we'll spend a little bit of our winnings to stay safe while we're set up to collect another $8,400 if the VIX stays low and, if not, we have $50,000 coming to us before we have to worry about the short puts.  

In the OOP, we have a straight 80 TZA April $11/16 bull call spread we paid net $1.65 for.  It's now net $1.24 but not worth adjusting yet.  Ideally, we'll roll out to the STP's July $10/18 spread at $1.80 but the OOP doesn't have the margin of the STP, so I'd rather wait for the short Aprils to be closer to expiration.  As long as the April $11 calls are over $1.50 (now $1.92) – it's certainly not urgent. 

All these are, of course, good as new hedges in addition to our DXD idea from the morning Report.