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Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Top Trades for Tue, 13 Feb 2018 13:37 – GNC and HMNY

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Top Trades for Tue, 13 Feb 2018 13:37 – GNC and HMNY
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Wow, $1.69 on /RB.  Stop at $1.685 now.  

GNC/Dave – The main reason I like GNC is there are lots of people who think it will go BK (driving up the short put pricing) and I see little chance of that happening.  That being the case, I can construct a trade were I have little fear of the "worst case" (being assigned) and we can have fun with the leverage.  

In the LTP, we sold 20 GNC 2020 $5 puts for $3 ($6,000) and now they are $2.10 ($4,200) and still good for a new trade and, in the LTP we will add:

  • Buy 50 GNC 2020 $2.50 calls for $3.50 ($17,500) 
  • Sell 50 GNC 2020 $7.50 calls for $1.65 ($8,250) 

That's net $9,250 on our new spread less $6,000 we collected is net $3,250 on the $25,000 spread that's half in the money already.  Even taken with the puts at $4,200, the net is $5,050 with a $19,950 (395%) upside potential and the worst case is owning 2,000 shares for net $14,200 ($7.10) assuming you just sit there and watch the spread go to zero and never roll the puts.  

In the OOP, we already have that spread at net $700 for 20 – even better than the LTP's price.

While it looks like a falling knife, MoviePass (HMNY) is probably just repricing to the stock offering and, in the OOP, we don't have them at all so let's play ball!  

  • Sell 15 HMNY 2020 $5 puts for $2.60 ($3,900) 
  • Buy 25 HMNY 2020 $2.50 calls at $3.25 ($8,125) 
  • Sell 25 HMNY 2020 $7.50 calls for $1.10 ($2,750)

That's net $1,475 on the $12,500 spread so potential to gain $11,025 at $7.50 (747%) and we're more than half in the money already!  Aren't options great?  

Worst case is owning 1,500 shares at net $6ish 

In the LTP, we have 20 HMNY Aug $5/10 bull call spreads we paid net $1.50 for and we sold 10 Aug $7.50 puts for $3.50, which are now $3.70.  Let's adjust by:

  • Roll the 10 Aug $7.50 puts at $3.70 ($3,700) to 20 2020 $5 puts at $2.60 ($5,200) 
  • Roll 20 Aug $5 calls at $1.10 ($2,200) to 50 2020 $2.50 calls at $3.25 ($16,250) 
  • Sell 20 2020 $7.50 calls for $1.10 ($2,200) 

So we're putting net $13,350 less the original $500 credit is $12,800 on the $25,000 spread only 10 longs are still uncovered and the Aug can be rolled and re-sold to reduce costs down the line.