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Top Trades for Tue, 27 Jun 2017 11:15 – CSCO, FNSR, GE and TGT

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Top Trades for Tue, 27 Jun 2017 11:15 – CSCO, FNSR, GE and TGT
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Four for the Road:  Time for my vacation but let's pick up 4 new stocks for the OOP and LTP as they can both use some new positions after a few cash-outs this month.

FNSR has missed out on most of the tech rally after disappointing earnings in March (through 1/30), where they missed by 4.8%  but still made 0.59 and still on track to easily make $2 for the year, which is a p/e of 13.5 for a company that does fiber-optics and 3D sensors (for self-driving cars).  Well worth a long-term investment though they may get cheaper in a tech crash.

In the LTP, our allocation blocks are $50,000 so no worries selling 10 2019 $25 puts for $4.80 ($4,800), which would net us in at $20.20 ($20,200) as an initial entry.  We'll also play 20 of the 2019 $23 ($9.20)/30 ($5.90) bull call spreads at $3.30 ($6,600) and that will make the net of the whole $14,000 spread $1,800 with $12,200 (677%) upside potential.  

I'll be very surprised if the Nasdaq doesn't pull back and we "only" make $12,200 – hopefully it gets cheaper and we can roll down the long calls and sell more puts.  

Like the LTP, the OOP is swimming in CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?) – $204,000 at the moment and our allocation blocks there are $25,000 so, essentially, we'll take half as big a position:

  • Sell 5 FNSR 2019 $25 puts for $4.80 ($2,400) 
  • Buy 10 FNSR 2019 $23 calls for $9.20 ($9,200)
  • Sell 10 FNSR 2019 $30 calls for $5.90 ($5,900)

That's net $900 on the $7,000 spread with $6,100 upside potential (677%) and the worst thing that can happen is we end up owning 500 shares of FNSR for net $25.90 – still cheaper than it is now.  

TGT is already bouncing off the $50 line but such a good deal down here I don't mind chasing $2.  AMZN buying WFM is freaking people out but $50 is a bit silly for TGT as that's $27.5Bn and they made $2.7Bn last year, which is a p/e of 10 and last year wasn't even a good year.  They are certainly good for $4/share but with SHLD and others closing stores – I think they'll have some beats ahead just from picking up shoppers who have nowhere else to go.

In the LTP, we already sold 10 2019 $57.50 puts for $10.60 and they are still around that price but let's add 30 2019 $50 ($6.65)/60 ($3) bull call spreads at $3.65 ($10,950) so that's a great price for a $30,000 spread and our net with the short puts is just $350 to make $29,650.  Who needs jobs?  

In the Butterfly Portfolio, we can roll our 20 TGT 2019 $55 calls ($4.50) down to the $50 calls for $2.15 – let's do that too. 

In the OOP, the same trade as the LTP but smaller and from scratch:

  • Sell 5 TGT 2019 $60 puts for $13 ($6,500)
  • Buy 15 TGT 2019 $50 calls for $6.65 ($9,975) 
  • Sell 15 TGT 2019 $60 calls for $3.00 ($4,500)

That's a net credit of $1,025 or $2.05 per short put so our worst case is owning 500 shares of TGT for net $57.95, which is a 10% higher than it is now, so we're being aggressive there but let's say they fall to $40 and we double down, then we'd have 1,000 at net $48.95, which wouldn't be so terrible.  On the upside, there's another $15,000 to gain at $60 or above and that would be net $16,025 and up a Bazillion percent on cash (because we had a credit to start).  By the way, margin on the short puts is just $2,911 so it's a super-efficient way to play.  

GE used to always be in our portfolio but I got mad at them when they spun off their finance division.  Back down at $27 I'm ready to forgive them and so is Barclays, who agree with me and just made them a Top Pick to go with our Top Trade.  

GE does pay a 3.4% dividend, which makes them attractive to own so, for the LTP let's:

  • Buy 2,000 shares of GE for $27.40 ($54,800)
  • Sell 20 2019 $25 calls for $3.70 ($7,400) 
  • Sell 20 2019 $28 puts for $3.05 ($6,100) 

That's net $41,300 and we have no intention of being called away but we'll worry about the adjustment in 18 months.  "Worst" case is we get called away at $50,000 and make $8,700 (21%) in 18 months plus $2,880 in dividends (7%) for 28% in 18 months and all GE has to do is be over $28.  If under $28, we get more stock cheaply – boo hoo.  

And yes, it's an aggressive block – because it's GE!  

In the OOP, we'd rather be more cash-flexible but we don't ultimately mind owning them so we can get very aggressive with the put sale:

  • Sell 5 GE 2019 $30 puts for $4.30 ($2,150) 
  • Buy 15 GE 2019 $25 calls for $3.70 ($5,550) 
  • Sell 15 GE 2019 $30 calls for $1.34 ($2,010) 

That nets us into the $7,500 spread for $1,390 and we will be overpaying for 500 shares if they are assigned to us at $30 but a lovely $6,110 profit (439%) if GE is over $30 and that's just asking it to go up 10% in 18 months.  If you don't believe in that – you should be cashing out all your longs!  

CSCO is another long-time favorite we don't happen to own at the moment.  I've given up on $30 and again we have an attractive $1.16 (3.6%) dividend that would be nice to add to the LTP but, in this case, I'm going to do it like the above OOP play and we can sell high puts aggressively:

Sell 10 CSCO 2019 $32 puts for $3.80 ($3,800) 

Buy 20 CSCO 2019 $28 calls for $5.30 ($10,600)

Sell 20 CSCO 2019 $35 calls for $1.85 ($3,700) 

That's net $3,100 on the $14,000 spread with $10,900 (351%) upside potential at $35 and our worst-case is owning 1,000 shares for net $35.10 – we can certainly live with that after we double down, sell calls and start collecting our dividends, right?  

In the OOP, that trade is so good we'll just cut it in half:

  • Sell 5 CSCO 2019 $32 puts for $3.80 ($1,900) 
  • Buy 10 CSCO 2019 $28 calls for $5.30 ($5,300)
  • Sell 10 CSCO 2019 $35 calls for $1.85 ($1,850) 

That's net $1,550 on the $7,000 spread with $5,450 (351%) upside potential at $35 and our worst-case is owning 500 shares for net $35.10 – we can certainly live with that after we double down, sell calls and start collecting our dividends, right? 

Well that was hard work – I need a vacation!  

Actually, these are the top 4 trade ideas we've liked after a week of looking at hundreds of ideas – it really was hard work…