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Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Top Trades for Wed, 03 Jun 2020 12:04 – IMAX

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Top Trades for Wed, 03 Jun 2020 12:04 – IMAX
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See, once they can quantify the loss, everyone relaxes:

  • Cinemark (NYSE:CNK) is up 2.6%, amid a broader market rally, after investors absorbed the brunt of the company's Q1 earnings, which showed declines and misses (though pandemic closures will weigh more heavily on the current quarter).
  • Revenues fell 24% to $543.6M in a quarter where the company closed all its theaters March 18. (It's heading toward a phased reopening starting June 19.)
  • Attributable net loss was $59.6M, vs. a year-ago profit of $32.7M. EBITDA was $66.2M, down from a year-ago $152.3M.
  • In operating metrics, attendance was 45.8M, average ticket price was up 0.6% (to $6.39) and concession revenues per patron rose 3.2%, to $4.16.
  • Aggregate screen count was 6,145 at quarter-end, and the company had commitments to open five theaters and 48 screens for the rest of 2020, and 17 theaters and 175 screens subsequent to 2020.
  • Revenue breakout: Admissions, $292.5M; Concessions, $190.4M.
  • Press release

Impact/StJ – It depends on the duration.  China is getting back to work but the rest of the World is shut down so they are off to a slow start for that reason.  The last country to get back to normal (us, for sure) will get back fastest as the rest of the World will be willing to work by then and I've been saying that will be June since January and I still think you'll be sitting in a movie theater in July and you will look around and think back on my words at how amazingly normal things already seem by then.

IMAX still very cheap at $13.60.  Not on the Watch List because we already owned them.

For the LTP:

  • Sell 20 IMAX Dec $15 puts for $3.40 ($6,800) 
  • Buy 40 IMAX Dec $10 calls for $4.90 ($19,600) 
  • Sell 40 IMAX Dec $15 calls for $2 ($8,000) 

That's net $4,800 on the $20,000 spread so $14,200 (295%) of upside potential in less than 200 days is pretty good and we're already $14,000 in the money!   Even though they are aggressive, the ordinary margin on the puts is only $2,232 so a very efficient trade!  

Thanks Stock!