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Archive for 2005

Friday Outlook & TOTD – LLY

Gasoline is up 20% (.24) in 8 days, merry Christmas!

I think/hope some of this nat gas buying is on speculation and short squeezing rather than on the reality that it now costs 150% more than it did last year to heat homes.

This will not affect today’s consumer sentiment reading but will be a major market bummer if it continues into next month.

Until the report at about 9:30-9:50, expect what will either be a dead market bounce or the start of a very nice Friday rally.

=====================================

I am going to apologize to Sunoco, they may actually be a better buy than COP but Conoco has made more investments in production while SUN has focused on cutting costs on current production. While SUN may rise faster than COP, I still think COP is the stock for the future.

VLO is really primed to pop at the moment as are THE, SLB, CVX and PTEN. There is a great sale on BP today as the Kuwaiti government is selling $2Bn worth of the stock in Europe. Just like with GNW, you have to wait for the dust to settle but this will be a great buy very soon as well!

NFLX has reached a critical juncture right at $27.50. There is a lot of downward pressure on the stock but it has steadfastly refused to cross this line. They have done a great job bringing costs down and they have low churn despite their much vaunted competition.

========== Trade of the Day ==============

LLY is guiding up but, most importantly, they announced that they have no more patent expirations this decade! I really don’t think they could have said anything better outside of a cure for something popular. This coupled with the Merck collapse makes this my Trade of the Day!

I’m sorry I missed this earlier in the week but there is no time like the present. The stock dropped $1 yesterday on unfounded guidance fears so ignore the first dollar of today’s rally in the stock. We need to give them another quarter to run and also we will pay less of the jump with a longer call so I’m going for the April $50 at $5 (no more than a $2 premium) and I will look to offset it by selling the current $55 or, if we are lucky, $60 as soon as the premium hits…
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Monday Monday

Game on for gold and oil. From the WSJ : "According to a recent study by the World Gold Council, an industry association of the world’s leading gold-mining companies, investment demand for gold rose 56% in the third quarter and is expected to increase further." According to my "poker with the Saudis" scenario, we should get a pretty nice run to the $520 or so range followed by a sudden, viscous pullback. It snowed in NY this weekend so, of course, that means it has just occurred to many traders that we might use some oil this winter so our oil picks are back in play. PTEN, TDW and OII look ripe for a move and SLB may break $100 if the sector is strong (if VLO and XOM are up). I still love my COP $65s but they have not been loving me so I can’t recommend them. Now we know what’s up with BSX, they just made a bid for GDT, trying to steal it from cheapskate JNJ who had the deal locked but then demanded a discount of 15% from Guidant. Now Boston Scientific is offering back around the original price but I think JNJ was right and that BSX is overpaying so I am going to make make BSX my Trade of The Day as a put. Anything above the 50 dma of $25 will be a gift on this stock, there will be big volume, so that’s not an if – which means if it breaks $24.75 then the Jan $25 put will be a nice gamble as long as it is not for more than the 1.60 that the $27.50 was going for on Friday. BSX is a $22Bn company trying to swallow GDT at $25Bn and it is very, very likely that over the next few days, someone will have a problem with that! On the other side of this trade, any chance to buy GDT for less than $70 is also a gift as analysts will jump on the bandwagon to claim $72 is a fair price for the company. DELL has made a nice, slow rising consolodation and looks to be primed for a nice move. I think they are a very safe bet to stay at or above the 50 dma of $31. HPQ has doubled for the year and Dell has dropped 50%, anyone who buys computers knows that…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: Selloff Ends, Rally Begins

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In last weekend's update, only one the eight indexes on my watchlist posted a weekly gain. This weekend's numbers have reversed. Seven indexes closed the week with a gain and there were some substantial ones at that. Japan's Nikkei erased the previous week's -5.02% plunge with a 5.22% surge. The S&P 500 finished second with a 4.12% advance. China's Shanghai Composite was the sole loser, down 1.66%.

In fact, the Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The index is down 33.68% from its August 2009 peak. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below.

Here is a look at 2014 so far....



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Zero Hedge

Top Ebola Scientists: Ebola More Likely to be Spread by Aerosol In Cold, Dry Conditions than In Hot, Humid Africa

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

We've repeatedly warned that this strain of Ebola might be spread by aerosols.

But there is a fascinating and terrifying wrinkle to this ...

You might assume that hot, steamy places would be more likely to spread deadly germs than developed countries. But the opposite might be true.

In 1995, scientists from the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) reported in the International Journal of E...



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Phil's Favorites

ROUBINI: America Is A Sick, Sick Country

ROUBINI: America Is A Sick, Sick Country Courtesy of 

"American madness: a teenager is allowed to receive a rifle as a birthday gift," NYU professor Nouriel Roubini tweeted. "Sick sick country."

Roubini's words come hours after a gunman killed one person and injured several others at Marysville-Pilchuck High School near Seattle, Washington.

The gunman was later identified as Jaylen Fryberg, a freshman at the school. Fryberg,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On ResMed Following 1Q15 Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RMD Morning Market Movers Qualcomm Announces New Connected Health Collaborations at Connect 2014

In a report published Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on ResMed (NYSE: RMD), and raised the price target from $46.19 to $49.57.

In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, “Currency headwinds and part quarter release of the S10 downplayed expectations ahead of the result. Despite this, RMD beat on US revenue driv...



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Market Shadows

Bill Ackman's Big Pharma Trade Is Making Wall Street A Super Awkward Place

 

#452525522 / gettyimages.com

Intro by Ilene

If you're following Valeant's proposed takeover (or merger) of Allergan and the lawsuit by Allergan against Valeant and notorious hedge fund manager William Ackman, for insider trading this is a must-read article. 

Linette Lopez describes the roles played by key Wall Street hedge fund owners--Jim Chanos, John Paulson, and Mason Morfit, a major shareholder in Valeant. Linette goes through the con...



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Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sharp selloff in stocks sets up long-awaiting buying opportunity

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week brought even more stock market weakness and volatility as the selloff became self-perpetuating, with nobody mid-day on Wednesday wanting to be the last guy left holding equities. Hedge funds and other weak holders exacerbated the situation. But the extreme volatility and panic selling finally led some bulls (along with many corporate insiders) to summon a little backbone and buy into weakness, and the market finished the week on a high note, with continued momentum likely into the first part of this week.

Despite concerns about global economic growth and a persistent lack of inflation, especially given all the global quantitative easing, fundamentals for U.S. stocks still look good, and I believe this overdue correction ultimately will shape up to be a great buying opportunity -- i.e., th...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 20th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Just sign in with your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

#457319216 / gettyimages.com

 

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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