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Monday Monday

Game on for gold and oil. From the WSJ : "According to a recent study by the World Gold Council, an industry association of the world’s leading gold-mining companies, investment demand for gold rose 56% in the third quarter and is expected to increase further." According to my "poker with the Saudis" scenario, we should get a pretty nice run to the $520 or so range followed by a sudden, viscous pullback. It snowed in NY this weekend so, of course, that means it has just occurred to many traders that we might use some oil this winter so our oil picks are back in play. PTEN, TDW and OII look ripe for a move and SLB may break $100 if the sector is strong (if VLO and XOM are up). I still love my COP $65s but they have not been loving me so I can’t recommend them. Now we know what’s up with BSX, they just made a bid for GDT, trying to steal it from cheapskate JNJ who had the deal locked but then demanded a discount of 15% from Guidant. Now Boston Scientific is offering back around the original price but I think JNJ was right and that BSX is overpaying so I am going to make make BSX my Trade of The Day as a put. Anything above the 50 dma of $25 will be a gift on this stock, there will be big volume, so that’s not an if – which means if it breaks $24.75 then the Jan $25 put will be a nice gamble as long as it is not for more than the 1.60 that the $27.50 was going for on Friday. BSX is a $22Bn company trying to swallow GDT at $25Bn and it is very, very likely that over the next few days, someone will have a problem with that! On the other side of this trade, any chance to buy GDT for less than $70 is also a gift as analysts will jump on the bandwagon to claim $72 is a fair price for the company. DELL has made a nice, slow rising consolodation and looks to be primed for a nice move. I think they are a very safe bet to stay at or above the 50 dma of $31. HPQ has doubled for the year and Dell has dropped 50%, anyone who buys computers knows that is just not right! Dell was picked way back on 11/19 and those Jan $27.50 should have already been cashed for our $3.60 target price (20%). If you were naughty and didn’t cash them, I would bless a small hold with a tight stop, but there is the very real danger of a 2 week flatline eroding the premium. YELL caught people (not me) by surprise with a 10% boost in guidance, this would be a day trade up to the 200 dma of $51 because rising oil always panics investors in this stock even though the company passes it on as a fuel surcharge that has been accepted by its customers for 2 years. The stock has doubled from mid ’03 at $24 but earnings have quadrupled with revenues have just about tripled. In baseball you can just feel the home run coming when a player is going for the cycle. With fund money returning to this sector anyway, I think that Yellow’s stock will be the home run! Also catching people by surprise is Sears offering to buy Sears Canada for $700M, investors were looking for the company to sell off stores, not buy more! Expect the stock to be punished for this. GG would be a great one to buy out of the box after its ridiculous sell-off last week but I think I mentioned that on Friday so from now on I will just keep saying "I told you so" regarding this stock… MRB may experience a shortage of sellers today as well. I nailed my Harry Potter prediction this weekend so now we will see if it actually moves TWXs stock or not. The market will open weak but may stage a great turnaround if our Fed Chairman can just say thank you in London today or maybe throw us a bone by saying something, anything, nice about the US economy but I doubt it! I am just so embarrased as an American to have the rest of the World’s markets kicking our butts again today…

 

 

 

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  1. No members here? Was this a free site?


  2. Italics?! I love it!