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For Greg, on nnvc.ob

From Ilene to Greg and all on Nanoviricides (NNVC), May 17, 2008

During the bird flu scare a couple years ago, we found nnvc.pk trading at .10 a share, which seemed pretty cheap for a biotech company working on a cure for the bird flu pandemic.  Yeah, I know, there was no bird flu pandemic, and there is no "nanoviricide" cure for bird flu either, but that's besides the point.  Anyway, the stock caught on and I sold mine way too soon after realizing that the science they were claiming simply didn't make sense.    

So, to answer Greg's question on nnvc.ob, I'm posting an email from a friend who works in the field of medical research.  The email was in response to me sending him their latest press release (below), just for fun.  I think nnvc.ob attracts a number of "fans" who either for emotional reasons or financial reasons will take issue with this, and hopefully NOT send me emails.  On the other hand, this is the kind of thing that's worth knowing when you're thinking about investing long-term in the stock of a penny biotech company with no product and no published articles in medical journals describing their work.

NNVC.OB:  Opinion from a friend

Again, this is total nonsense.

This is NOT how business is done. The results of studies like these are ALWAYS published. Nobody cites some supposed big-shot (Menon is NOT a big shot). Nobody ever says "The famous Dr. So-and-So has certified that the product is effective" or any such nonsense. Nobody would believe that, regardless of how famous the guy is, because of the obvious conflict of interest.

Passing peer-review is the critical, essential test of the data. The company has an obvious conflict of interest, and so does Menon, since he is part of the company and obviously owns a ton of shares.  They have every motivation to lie through their teeth and say the thing does whatever they want it to do. And they know there is no way anybody can catch them in their lies, because THEY have the data (that is, if any actual data exists, which is doubtful). And they will never open their books to outside inspection. Without peer review, there is no way at all for anybody to assess the accuracy or validity of any such claims.

This is like asking the wolves to watch over your chickens for you.

Prediction: they will NEVER publish any of their results, because they don't HAVE any results. Anyhow, there's no upside to publishing, only downside. And they will counter with claims that they cannot publish because of intellectual property and corporate secrets and such. That is total BS. We do this all the time. Everybody knows the sequence: you file a provisional invention disclosure, or an entire patent. Then you publish. If you file the provisional, you have a year to support the claim with data. So the fast track is to file the provisional if you think you can readily get supporting data. Then you get the data, publish, and file the full patent. These procedures completely protect your IP claims, so there is no reason to NOT go through the peer review process, and every reason to do so, IF you have a legitimate claim. That's because if you have a legitimate claim, then successful peer review validates that claim and makes it stronger as well.

Also, they might very well never file anything at all with the FDA. There's nothing to stop them from saying they are working on FDA approval. The FDA isn't about to get itself involved in stuff like that. If they haven't actually received anything from the company, then as far as they are concerned, this is none of their business, and is a matter for the shareholders. The FDA is not in the business of policing company/shareholder relations. That's the SEC's domain, but as you know, they SEC won't involve itself unless there are complaints, and even at that, they probably wouldn't waste a lot of time and resources investigating yet another pink sheet scam that will yield nothing tangible in terms of assets that claimants can get.

A total scam, as I've said many many times. I would short the hell out of that company if I could (though probably not right at the moment).

It will eventually disintegrate, although they will keep it afloat as long as possible. Based on the timelines in their "pipeline," which predict filing of NDAs in 2009 or so, that's about when things will start to unravel, and people will begin to realize they are left holding the bag. First, they will come up with excuses as to why they didn't get FDA approval for their NDA and/or why "compassionate use" or fast-track status was not granted. They will keep up the excuse-generating machinery as long as they can, then they'll fold amidst a whole lot of blame with a gang of pissed-off creditors and shareholders on their ass that will get left holding the bag because there will be nothing left of the company. By that time, the principals will have bailed and securely sequestered the riches plundered from the company in places where nobody can get to them, then claim there is nothing left, sorry folks.

You know this drill by now. This is hardly any surprise, any fool can see this playing out. As always, it works because greed blinds people.
 

Here's the press release this was in response to: 

Anti-HIV NanoViricide Drug Candidate Demonstrates Significant Therapeutic Efficacy in Animal Trials
Monday May 5, 2008

Positive Initial Results Pave the Way for Definitive Follow-Up Studies

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), said that its anti-HIV drug candidates demonstrated significant therapeutic efficacy in the recently completed preliminary animal studies. The studies were performed at a Bio-Safety Level 3 Laboratory (BSL-3) facility in Boston, MA. These mouse model studies were conducted by Dr. Krishna Menon, PhD, VMD, MRCS, a world-renowned authority in preclinical and toxicological studies of innovative therapeutics.
Dr. Menon has indicated to us that the results of the study validate the Companys HivCide-I as a potential treatment for HIV/AIDS, said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of NanoViricides, adding, Over the next several weeks, we expect to release additional study data. The Companys scientists are now designing the protocol for a follow up anti-HIV study to be performed at a major United States government research facility. 

The Company also said that animal studies for its drug candidates against bird flu (H5N1) are due to be scheduled at a major United States government research facility. The company has previously reported that animal studies against Ebola would be undertaken following the success of in vitro studies. These studies are continuing.

NanoViricides, Inc. is using injectable nanoviricides for its initial HIV studies. Future plans call for the development of a long-acting anti-HIV skin patch. The Company feels that this delivery method will result in markedly improved patient compliance.  

 


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