Author Archive for ilene

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

 

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

A mural near the site of COP26, the 26th Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rachel Kyte, Tufts University

Glasgow sits proudly on the banks of the river Clyde, once the heart of Scotland’s industrial glory and now a launchpad for its green energy transition. It’s a fitting host for the United Nations’ climate conference, COP26, where world leaders will be discussing how their countries will reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change.

I’ve been involved in climate negotiations for several years as a former senior U.N. official and will be in Glasgow for the talks starting Oct. 31, 2021. As negotiations get underway, here’s what to watch for.

Ambition

At the Paris climate conference in 2015, countries agreed to work to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), aiming for 1.5 C (2.7 F). If COP21 in Paris was the agreement on a destination, COP26 is the review of itineraries and course adjustments.

The bad news is that countries aren’t on track. They were required this year to submit new action plans – known as national determined contributions, or NDCs. The U.N.’s latest tally of all the revised plans submitted in advance of the Glasgow summit puts the world on a trajectory to warm 2.7 C (4.86 F), well into dangerous levels of climate change, by the end of this century.

Chart showing emissions trajectories

The U.N. Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report, released Oct. 26, 2021, shows the national pledges so far fall well short of the Paris Agreement goals. UNEP

All eyes are on the G-20, a group of leading world economies that together account for almost 80% of global emissions. Their annual summit takes place in Rome on Oct. 30-31, immediately before COP26 begins.

Some key G-20 countries have not submitted their updated plans yet, including India. Brazil, Mexico, Australia and Russia have filed plans that are…
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Tobin Smith: Bad Energy Decisions Matter

 

Image by Harry Stilianou from Pixabay

Bad Energy Decisions Matter

The 2022 Energy Crisis Is Here as Nations Struggle to Keep The Lights On

Courtesy of Tobin Smith, Transformity Research

Many Transformity Research investors have made a fortune in our energy infrastructure investments in the last 20 months, and we stand to make a lot more profits as the 2021-2022 energy crisis deepens.

For a variety of reasons, the profitless public Exploration and Production (EP) Fracking Boom is unlikely to happen again… and thus we are in a structural bull market for energy and a longer-lasting Fracking Bust while the resurging world economy that still runs on 80% hydrocarbons for energy barely hangs on. 

We forecast $75 oil in June and $4 natural gas after it became clear the major oil and natural consumption countries were on a path to at least enough vaccination and natural immunity to re-open their economies. We knew there would be more pent-up demand for oil and natural gas, and not nearly enough marginal new production.

We knew that because in the United States, the world's new leader in energy production, the public companies that created the Great American Energy Fracking BOOM had lost $trillions in borrowed money in a race to the bottom of the energy fracking mountain. Wall Street and energy banks were not lending any more energy production money because it would only serve to make them lose MORE money per barrel of oil or MMMbtu of natural gas.  

The old rule of commodity economics--the cure for high priced energy is high priced energy--requires willing lenders and investors to finance unprofitable energy drilling and production. But the folks with the money called uncle even before the pandemic hit the oil patch. When combined with OPEC+ getting religion on oil production that skews oil prices higher at the margin, now the new marginal producer of oil and natural gas in the world (American energy industry) was cut off from their financial enablers.

When fracking technology became profitable, lenders and private equity forgot that the cure for $100 oil was $100 oil…and the $100s of billions of drilling spending made the US the new marginal producer of light sweet crude. The “produced natural gas” that…
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These Are the Goods

 

These Are the Goods

Courtesy of 

Articles

When you measure yourself by the standards of others, even a lot is not enough. (By Phil Pearlman)

Printing magic internet money is immensely powerful and cannot be stopped. (By Rhys Lindmark)

If you crimp the supply of critical inputs with no workable plan to replace them, inflation is the unavoidable outcome. (By Doomberg)

If a junior analyst at Citi traded like this in her personal account, she’d be fired immediately and barred from the securities industry for life. (By Ben Hunt)

The type of fear that now drives most market activity is something different than the fear we’ve been accustomed to from reading about history. (By Josh Brown)

All of the true crypto believers are already in (By Ben Carlson)

Podcasts

If we started this from scratch, trading would be 24/7 (With Patrick O’Shaughnessy and Sam Bankman-Fried)

These parties are all at odds (With Bankless and Zeus)

Inside information is now everywhere (With me, Josh, and Howard Lindzon)

Books

Beneath the placid surface, GE was in total disarray (By Thomas Gryta and Ted Mann)





Hyperinflation!

 

Hyperinflation!

Courtesy of The Reformed Broker

 

5:30pm ET LIVE premiere today – Subscribe for the alert!

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including:

  • Earnings Week – The final super-sized earnings week of the year is upon us.
  • Billionaire Tax – “I am constantly amazed by the capacity of legislatures to write bad tax law, but this one takes the cake…”
  • Hyperinflation – Lots of armchair economists and monetary theorists out there spewing nonsense these days.
  • Was Tesla Cheap? – The only other companies in the world worth more than $1 trillion are Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Saudi Aramco.
  • Early Retirement Boom – Does this trend put more pressure on portfolio returns and expectations?
  • Startups Galore – “It has never been easier to start a company, build a team, and build a product.”
  • Why Hold Bonds? – A 64-year old asks the crew to give him a reason, any reason, to hold bonds going forward.
  • Buffered ETFs – When does sacrificing some upside to protect the downside make sense?

And much more!

Josh and Michael (and Ben) use YCharts when creating visuals for this show, as well as for many aspects of their business. 

Standard disclaimer

Check out the Goldmine podcast to hear more from Michael, Ben, Josh and the rest of the Ritholtz Mafia.

Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: https://email.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe





Biden’s Nominee Omarova Has a Published Plan to Move All Bank Deposits to the Fed and Let the New York Fed Short Stocks

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Saule Omarova

Saule Omarova

This month, the Vanderbilt Law Review published a 69-page paper by Saule Omarova, President Biden’s nominee to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal regulator of the largest banks in the country that operate across state lines. The paper is titled “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy.”

The paper, in all seriousness, proposes the following:

(1) Moving all commercial bank deposits from commercial banks to so-called FedAccounts at the Federal Reserve;

(2) Allowing the Fed, in “extreme and rare circumstances, when the Fed is unable to control inflation by raising interest rates,” to confiscate deposits from these FedAccounts in order to tighten monetary policy;

(3) Allowing the most Wall Street-conflicted regional Fed bank in the country, the New York Fed, when there are “rises in market value at rates suggestive of a bubble trend,” such as with technology stocks today, to “short these securities, thereby putting downward pressure on their prices”;

(4) Eliminate the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) that insures bank deposits;

(5) Consolidate all bank regulatory functions at the OCC – which Omarova has been nominated to head.

Republican Senator Pat Toomey has been running a Red Scare campaign against Omarova, who was born in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (now Kazakhstan) and attended Moscow State University on a Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship.

The real threat that Omarova poses to U.S. financial stability, that Democrats should be calling out, is that she wants to further concentrate all major aspects of the U.S. banking system in the hands of the Federal Reserve, a captured regulator whose 12 regional bank tentacles are, literally, owned by the banks. (See These Are the Banks that Own the New York Fed and Its Money Button.) Omarova offers not one scintilla of a suggestion about restructuring the Fed so that it is not owned by or controlled by the banks.

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Atmospheric river storms can drive costly flooding – and climate change is making them stronger

 

Atmospheric river storms can drive costly flooding – and climate change is making them stronger

Satellite photo showing a river of moisture extending from Hawaii to Calfiornia, Oct. 24, 2021. NOAA

Courtesy of Tom Corringham, University of California San Diego

Ask people to name the world’s largest river, and most will probably guess that it’s the Amazon, the Nile or the Mississippi. In fact, some of Earth’s largest rivers are in the sky – and they can produce powerful storms, like the ones now drenching northern California.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that extend from the tropics to higher latitudes. These rivers in the sky can transport 15 times the volume of the Mississippi River.

When that moisture reaches the coast and moves inland, it rises over the mountains, generating rain and snowfall. Many fire-weary westerners welcome these deluges, but atmospheric rivers can trigger other disasters, such as extreme flooding and debris flows.

Atmospheric rivers are an important water source for the U.S. West. NOAA

In the past 20 years, as observation networks have improved, scientists have learned more about these important weather phenomena. Atmospheric rivers occur globally, affecting the west coasts of the world’s major land masses, including Portugal, Western Europe, Chile and South Africa. So-called “Pineapple Express” storms that carry moisture from Hawaii to the U.S. West Coast are just one of their many flavors.

My research combines economics and atmospheric science to measure damage from severe weather events. Recently I led a team of researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Army Corps of Engineers in the first systematic analysis of damages from atmospheric rivers due to extreme flooding. We found that while many of these events are benign, the largest of them cause most of the flooding damage in the western U.S. And atmospheric rivers are predicted to grow longer, wetter and wider in a warming climate.

Rivers in the sky

On Feb. 27, 2019, an atmospheric river propelled a plume of water vapor 350 miles wide…
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Momentum Monday – Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity…The Startup Multiplier Effect and The SPAC is Back?

 

Momentum Monday – Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity…The Startup Multiplier Effect and The SPAC is Back?

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Good Monday morning everyone.

I will get right to it…here is this weeks Momentum Monday episode with Ivanhoff and I talking markets and momentum. We share a few new ideas – take a look at $JAMF (Apple has finally come for the Fortune 1000) and $EBAY (the long tail winner of collectibles boom) and let us not forget Tesla back at all-time highs. You can watch/listen to this weeks episode right here on Youtube. I have embedded the show below on my blog:

All I can think of right now is the massive liquidity in and around the markets.

I have to start with the Fat Nixon SPAC. The most interesting thing to me is the SEC’s Gary Gensler has spent months tweeting and threatening crypto but the SEC has nothing to say about a SPAC that made zero attempt at anything but a promote. The good news is that this is a reminder to the left that there are unintended consequences of the policies meant to rid the internet of someone. There will always be speculators, promoters and bankers willing to finance people like Trump. It is also a reminder that the SPAC is a GREAT feature of markets and here to stay despite the abuse. It is up to investors to beware because the SEC is outgunned by the people.

Over $500 billion has flowed into the hands of venture capitalists and founders this year alone from acquisitions/deals.

In the olden days of the internet that would be piled into Porsches and dungeons. Today that will go back into jet sharing services, homes, condos and more startups.

This ‘startup multiplier effect‘ combined with the massive late stage ‘speed investing’ by Softbank, Tiger and their clones is going to end one day of course, but NOBODY knows the trigger right now. Good luck telling a young cash rich founder and a Tiger investor that prices are high and future returns might not look so great.


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Speculation is the new entertainment

 

Speculation is the new entertainment

Courtesy of 

 





Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Says U.S. Third Quarter Growth Was Almost Nil at 0.5 Percent; Wall Street Economists Are Forecasting Over 3 Percent

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for Third Quarter GDP 2021, As of October 25, 2021

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

This coming Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m., the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter. Some folks are going to have a lot of egg on their face at 8:31 a.m. That’s because the Wall Street crowd of economists has remained wildly optimistic on how the U.S. economy behaved in the third quarter, despite an upsurge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 hobbling consumer confidence and spending. Most economists on Wall Street are forecasting real GDP growth in the third quarter of more than 3 percent.

That Wall Street optimism has not been experienced by the number crunchers on the GDPNow Team at the Atlanta Fed. As of this morning, the AtlantaFed’s GDPNow crew can barely find a pulse for U.S. growth in the third quarter. They are predicting real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of just 0.5 percent. That forecast comes with the following caveat:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter….”

As the chart above indicates, the GDPNow Team’s number for third quarter GDP has been melting away faster than a snow cone in July. On August 2, it stood at 6.3 percent.


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Leveling the Playing Field With Cloud Gaming

 

Leveling the Playing Field With Cloud Gaming

Everyone Needs Access To Games

Courtesy of Reed Berkowitz at CuriouserInstitute

A friend of mine noticed something interesting. His teen was playing a game online with a group of other kids, but no one was actually “playing.” The characters were just kind of standing around chatting with each other as the game went on without them. The game had become secondary to the conversation. He mentioned it in our group chat and everyone with teens had noticed something similar. We had all seen our kids chatting on Discord or some other software and hanging out in-game.

It turns out that, without much fanfare, gaming has become one of the world’s largest social activities. Covid-19 increased the importance of gaming even further, driving game sales around the world.

The giants of the video game industry have thrived in the pandemic. Can the success continue?

The pandemic has turned everyone into gamers

Gaming has evolved into a medium that can not just relieve the stress of isolation but be a cure for isolation itself. It can take us places and connect us to people.

The problem is that gaming is only a solution if you can afford it.

Ever since the first arcade games, the types of games people can afford to play, and how long they can be played, have always come down to money. As people lose their jobs or their businesses, or scramble to get by on a percentage of what they used to, families have less and less access to the expensive hardware and software that gaming requires. This is creating an ever-widening gap between gaming haves and have-nots.

Cloud gaming, still in its infancy, has risen as a way to help bridge this gap and get new demographics of gamers into gaming.

It’s a literal game-changer.

Gaming Is Essential

There has always been a disproportionate amount of fear-based reporting about the negatives of gaming. The truth is, even…
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Phil's Favorites

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

 

4 key issues to watch as world leaders prepare for the Glasgow climate summit

A mural near the site of COP26, the 26th Conference of Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rachel Kyte, Tufts University

Glasgow sits proudly on the banks of the river Clyde, once the heart of Scotland’s industrial glory and now a launchpad for its green energy transition. It’s a fitting host for the ...



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Zero Hedge

The True Feasibility Of Moving Away From Fossil Fuels

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.

The problem is the same regardless of wh...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

 

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

Shutterstock/rzoze19

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream finance has reached another major milestone – and another record price. The cryptocurrency was trading at US$66,975 (£48,456) following the launch of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US w...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.