Author Archive for ilene

Analyst Mike Mayo’s “Dose of Heaven” Prediction Turns to Hell for the Banks on Thursday

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Closing Prices of Bank Stocks on June 17, 2021

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Mike Mayo, Banking Analyst at Wells Fargo

Mike Mayo, Banking Analyst at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo bank analyst Mike Mayo appeared on CNBC this morning to paint a rosy picture for how banks would be treating the Fed’s less than dovish statement yesterday. Mayo said this about the banks:

“Back in the 70s or even 1994 the inflation caused unrealized securities losses, derivatives losses, asset/liabilities mismatches. So too much inflation is hell for banks. But we think what’s happening now is a dose of heaven. And so higher rates sooner can allow banks to finally earn more money on all those deposits that they’ve gathered. And so this means that assets reprice faster than their liabilities.”

What actually priced much faster than either assets or liabilities were the share prices of the mega banks on Wall Street. The cheery words had barely left Mayo’s tongue before the biggest banks on Wall Street went into a sharp swoon. His employer, Wells Fargo, fared worst of all. By 12:39 p.m. this is where things stood: Wells Fargo (WFC) was down 4.79 percent; Citigroup (C) was off by 4.22 percent; Bank of America (BAC) had lost 4.11 percent; Morgan Stanley (MS) had given up 3.93 percent; Goldman Sachs (GS) shaved 3.33 percent while JPMorgan Chase gave up 2.92 percent.


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A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

 

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

One of this and one of that might be a good strategy to coronavirus vaccination. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

While it’s now pretty easy to get a COVID-19 shot in most places in the U.S., the vaccine rollout in other parts of the world has been slow or inconsistent due to shortages, uneven access and concerns about safety.

Researchers hope that a mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines will help alleviate these issues and create more flexibility in the immunization regimens available to people.

Around the world, different pharmaceutical companies have taken different approaches to developing vaccines. Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna created mRNA vaccines. Oxford-AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson went with what are called viral vectors. The Novavax COVID-19 vaccine is protein-based.

So mixing vaccines could mean more than just switching manufacturers – like from Pfizer for dose one to Moderna for dose two. You might be tapping into a different way to stimulate your immune response if you opt for a first dose of AstraZeneca and a second dose of Moderna.

The most obvious benefits of treating various brands and kinds of COVID-19 vaccine as interchangeable are logistical – people can get whatever shot is available without worry. By speeding up the global vaccination rollout, mixing and matching vaccines could help end this pandemic. Researchers also hope combining different vaccines will trigger a more robust, longer-lasting immune response compared to receiving both doses of a single vaccine. This approach may better protect people from emerging variants.

artist's rendition of a coronavirus particle and antibodies

After vaccination, your body makes antibodies (blue in this illustration) that will hunt for coronavirus proteins (pink). Christoph Burgstedt/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Biological effects of a mix-and-match approach

Scientists suspect there are a few ways that receiving two different COVID-19 vaccines may result in a stronger immune response.

Each company used slightly different regions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in their…
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Justice Department’s Investigation of Dodgy Archegos-Style Accounts at the Wall Street Mega Banks Is Likely the Cause of Plunge in Trading Revenues

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Share Price Performance of S&P 500 from June 1 through June 16 Versus the Wall Street Banks

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens

On May 26 Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. Department of Justice had opened an investigation into Archegos Capital Management and its bank lenders. Archegos is the family office hedge fund that had blown up in late March, causing a total of more than $10 billion in losses to mega banks including Credit Suisse, UBS, Morgan Stanley and others.

Archegos had obtained leverage of as much as 85 percent on its heavily-concentrated stock trades from some of its banks, in brazen violation of the Federal Reserve’s Regulation T which sets margin for stock trading at a maximum of 50 percent on opening trades. In addition, the banks were holding the stocks in their own names (while shifting losses and gains to Archegos under a derivatives contract called a swap) thus denying the public the knowledge of the true owners of these stock positions under 13F public filings with the SEC.

This kind of tricked-up derivative contract accomplished two other things as well: it allowed the banks to avoid the Volcker Rule that bans them from owning a hedge fund while still letting them loan out their balance sheet to a hedge fund and collect lucrative fees along the way. It also allowed the banks to ignore their own internal broker-dealer rules on making margin loans against concentrated stock positions. There is also the riveting question as to just who was paying the capital gains taxes on these stock trades. (See Did Archegos, Like Renaissance Hedge Fund, Avoid Billions in U.S. Tax Payments through a Scheme with the Banks?)

In late March, when Archegos couldn’t meet its margin calls with the banks, the banks had to panic sell the stocks they were holding, pushing down the prices of the stocks in some cases by as much as 50 percent.


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A court ruling on Shell’s climate impact and votes against Exxon and Chevron add pressure, but it’s the market that will drive oil giants to change

 

A court ruling on Shell’s climate impact and votes against Exxon and Chevron add pressure, but it’s the market that will drive oil giants to change

Fossil fuel stocks haven’t kept up with the market in recent years. Anton Petrus via Getty Images

Courtesy of Paul Griffin, University of California, Davis

From news reports, it might sound like the fossil fuel industry is on the defensive after a landmark court ruling and two shareholder votes challenging the industry’s resistance to curbing its greenhouse gas emissions.

But how much power do decisions like these really carry when it comes to pressuring the industry to change? As an academic who studies climate finance and is familiar with climate litigation, I think there’s something else at work here.

Pressure from the courts

This latest flurry of speculation about the future of the industry began on May 26, 2021, when a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell to cut its emissions 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels. That includes emissions from vehicles that burn Shell’s gasoline, something for which the oil industry has never been held legally liable.

Digging deeper into the court’s decision, it is clear that the judges paid attention to science. The court agreed that greenhouse gas emissions pose a significant risk to the climate and that only so much more carbon can be released globally if the world hopes to avoid warming the planet by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels – the limit agreed to globally under the Paris climate accord. The court held Shell partly responsible for this increase.

The decision appears to hinge on a violation of the Dutch Civil Code’s “unwritten standard of care,” which, according to the court, means that “acting in conflict with what is generally accepted according to unwritten law is unlawful.” Shell “must observe the due care exercised in society,” the court wrote.

Shell's CEO speaking in front of a photo of fossil fuel workers

After the ruling, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden wrote on LinkedIn that his company would accelerate its emissions reduction strategy, but ‘for a long time to come we expect to


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The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 


CONCERNED ABOUT U.S. APATHY toward Ukraine, the American attorney Victor Rud, in his capacity as chair of the foreign advisory council for the Ukrainian National Association, composed a letter to the incoming Secretary of State:

I am writing concerning the ongoing developments in Ukraine.

Even though Ukraine is the largest European country, the size of Germany, England and Hungary combined, it has been forever a terra incognita for Americans, citizens and policymakers alike. That, together with Ukraine’s sudden and stunning appearance on the international scene, requires a studied reassessment of America’s mindset about “Russia” that has dominated for now almost a century. This is especially so because, regardless of the result of the upcoming elections in Ukraine, the U.S. will be confronted by ever increasing and sophisticated attempts by Russia to suborn that country.

Putin’s soul is of an unrepentant CHEKIST who matriculated from the same school as Pavel Sudoplatov. Pavel was a key player in the Soviet penetration of the Manhattan Project…and was a killer, among the “wet tasks” organizing Trotsky’s assassination. Infinitely more consequential to the United States, though your predecessors were oblivious to its implications, was Sudoplatov’s organization of the assassination of Ukrainian political and military leaders in what he described as a 75-year war between Ukraine and Russia….The war continues.

Rud did not write this to Antony Blinken this past January. He wrote it to Condoleezza Rice in December of 2004.

Sixteen-plus years later, the only thing that has changed is the Russian occupation of the Crimea. Putin remains unrepentant. American policymakers remain oblivious, if not flat-out complicit. Ukraine remains essential. And the war continues.

To make sense of the situation playing out in the geographical center of Europe, we must understand the history of, and between, Ukraine and Russia. As the latter has spent the last century and a half in a concerted, systematic attempt to erase the history of the former, this is not always easy.



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This is bad news how?

 

This is bad news how?

Courtesy of 

The economy is recovering faster than had been expected as recently as this spring. Great reason to panic, apparently.

WSJ:

Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect to raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the economy recovers rapidly from the effects of the pandemic and inflation heats up.

Their median projection showed they anticipate lifting their benchmark rate to 0.6% from near zero by the end of 2023. In March they had expected to hold it steady through that year.

This is bad news how?

Do you want interest rates at zero and emergency bond buying programs to go on forever, regardless of economic conditions? Have you been struck by lightning, sir? Fallen on your head in recent days?

“Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of Covid-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened.”

That’s Chair Powell, resetting expectations as he should. Ignore kneejerk stock market reactions and sudden swings in sentiment. Things are getting better, extraordinary stimulus is going away, rates will normalize.

I’ll be on CNBC’s Closing Bell today at 3:45pm today, bringing my own particular flavor of calm, rational market commentary to the table. Pull up a chair.

 




It’s Now Official: The Financial House that Jamie Dimon Built Is the Riskiest Bank in the United States

Courtesy of Pam Martens and Russ Martens

Corporate media outlets like Bloomberg News, the CBS news program 60 Minutes, and CNBC have been seduced into obsequious behavior when it comes to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, despite the fact that Dimon has presided over the most unparalleled crime spree in the history of U.S. banking. Between 2014 and September of last year, JPMorgan Chase has been charged with five criminal felony counts by the U.S. Department of Justice. The bank admitted to all five counts. (See the bank’s detailed rap sheet here.)

Despite this crime spree and endless probation periods followed by more crime, Dimon has further seduced federal bank regulators into allowing his unrepentant behemoth to become the most systemically risky bank in America. That assessment is not our opinion. It is the assessment of the federal government based on hard data.

The National Information Center is a repository of bank data collected by the Federal Reserve. It is part of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), which was created by federal legislation to create uniformity in the examination of U.S. financial institutions by the various banking regulators.

Each year the National Information Center creates a graphic profile of banks measured by 12 systemic risk indicators. The data used to create these graphics come from the “Systemic Risk Report” or form FR Y-15 that banks are required to file with the Federal Reserve. To measure the systemic risk that a particular bank poses to the stability of the U.S. financial system, the data is broken down into five categories of system risk: size, interconnectedness, substitutability, complexity, and cross-jurisdictional activity. Those measurements consist of 12 pieces of financial information that banks have to provide on their Y-15 forms.

The most recent data for the period ending December 31, 2019 indicates that in 8 out of 12 measurements – or two-thirds of all systemic risk measurements – JPMorgan Chase ranks at the top for having the riskiest footprint among its peer banks.

To put it another way, the largest bank in the United States with an apparent insatiable appetite to commit felonies is also the riskiest bank based on other key metrics.


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A Bubble in Fundamentals

 

A Bubble in Fundamentals

Courtesy of 

In the spring of 2013, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high for the first time since October 2007. Around that time, I remember seeing people use the b-word to describe what was happening.

The chart below, which shows Google searches for “Stock market bubble,” validates my memory.

Stocks have been rising over the last decade because businesses have been making more money for their shareholders. That sounds overly simplistic, but that’s just about all you need to know.

 

Last week Howard Silverblatt tweeted that for the first time, S&P 500 quarterly cash-flow will exceed $500 billion.

You don’t have to be Captain Sherlock to find bubbles today. They’re hiding in plain sight. But just because there are bubbles in the stock market, that doesn’t mean the overall stock market is in a bubble.

I spoke about this and much more on the newest edition of The Compound and Friends with Josh and Sam Ro.

Links from the show

Here’s a link to sign up for Sam’s newsletter

Bitcoin Miami

Tim Dillon on stage 

Jay Woods on Circuit Breakers

Rising wages

Inflation numbers

75 years of advertising

Millennial subsidies





With Ford’s electric F-150 pickup, the EV transition shifts into high gear

 

With Ford’s electric F-150 pickup, the EV transition shifts into high gear

Ford calls its all-electric F-150 Lightning “the truck of the future.” Ford, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of Brian C. Black, Penn State

When President Joe Biden took Ford’s electric F-150 Lightning pickup for a test drive in Dearborn, Michigan, in May 2021, the event was more than a White House photo op. It marked a new phase in an accelerating shift from gas-powered cars and trucks to electric vehicles, or EVs.

In recent months, global auto manufacturers have released plans to electrify their vehicle fleets by 2030 or 2035, setting up a race to see who can most quickly shift entirely away from producing vehicles powered by gasoline.

Like Biden, former President Donald Trump promised to create jobs in the auto industry. But Trump sought to do it by perpetuating a fossil-fueled system that is the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Automakers benefited from some Trump policies in the short term, including the rollback of fuel economy standards. Now, however, they seem to be embracing the challenge of competing globally in a climate-constrained future.

As an environmental historian, I see this moment as pivotal because unlike EVs from manufacturers like Toyota or Tesla, the electric F-150 does not entirely rely on green consumer choice. It places the electric vehicle transition squarely in the hands of mass-market consumers who don’t choose cars based on environmental considerations, and who are buying far more light trucks – pickups, sport utility vehicles and minivans – than cars today.

The century of gasoline

America’s 20th-century affair with gas-powered cars was not inevitable. From 1890 through about 1915, vehicles powered by horses, coal, electric batteries and gasoline jockeyed for position on U.S. streets. And electric-powered vehicles had some clear advantages. Many consumers feared that gas-powered cars were prone to explode, and there was no nationwide fueling infrastructure.

But World War I combined with a moment of technological convergence that favored the internal combustion engine. Massive new petroleum discoveries in Texas, and later in the…
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It wasn’t just politics that led to Netanyahu’s ouster – it was fear of his demagoguery

 

It wasn’t just politics that led to Netanyahu’s ouster – it was fear of his demagoguery

Benjamin Netanyahu sits in the Knesset before parliament voted June 13, 2021, in Jerusalem to approve the new government that doesn’t include him, Amir Levy/Getty Images

Courtesy of Dov Waxman, University of California, Los Angeles

There is something Shakespearean about Benjamin Netanyahu’s downfall.

As in a scene from “Julius Caesar,” who was assassinated by Roman senators, Netanyahu was deposed by his former underlings, the leaders of the three right-wing parties that have joined the new government – Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar, all of whom once worked for Netanyahu.

If two of these men had remained loyal to Netanyahu, as they had been for years, then he would still be in power today.

Instead, Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has finally been dethroned. “King Bibi,” as his devoted supporters hail him, ruled Israel for a total of 15 years, including a short stint in the 1990s. He returned to power in 2009, and for the past 12 years he dominated Israeli politics and came to personify Israel in the eyes of the world.

But while personal grudges and political rivalries largely due to Netanyahu’s preening personality have no doubt played a key role in his ouster, they do not fully account for the unyielding opposition he has engendered.

It is not simply a result of individual grievances and political ambitions that Netanyahu can no longer appease or politically buy off his rivals. Nor is it just because they no longer believe any of his promises. As a scholar of Israeli politics, I think that it is also, even primarily, because Netanyahu has come to be seen as a danger to Israeli democracy itself, just as former President Donald Trump was in the United States.

Thousands of people dancing in a public square in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Thousands of people take part in spontaneous celebrations in Rabin Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, after the Knesset voted on June 13, 2021, to oust longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Guy Prives/Getty Images

Becoming a demagogue


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Zero Hedge

Lois Lerner Of 2021: IRS Political Corruption Unchanged With Billionaires' Tax Returns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Emily Miller via Emily Post News

When the private tax returns of billionaires were leaked to a left-wing group, liberals and conservatives reacted very differently. Liberals fell for the political trick and immediately said that the tax code was unfair and the rich should get a tax hike. Conservatives saw through the conspiracy and wanted answers on how the Deep State at the IRS could, once again, have so much unchecked power for political purpo...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-16-2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 06-09-2021

 

Major Topics:
00:00:14 - Checking on the Market
00:01:42 - EIA Report
00:09:50 - Intermediate Goods / Final Demand PPI / Inflation
00:16:13 - GOOGL
00:17:05 - MSFT / AA / AAPL
00:20:09 - U.S. Wage Growth
00:26:42 - U.S Housing Market / Wage Gap
00:34:47 - Mortgage & Property Taxes
00:37:16 - LTP
00:39:25 - STP
00:40:01 - CMG / FX / TQQQ
00:40:17 - SQQQ / W 
00:45:40 - LTP
00:49...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

 

A mix-and-match approach to COVID-19 vaccines could provide logistical and immunological benefits

One of this and one of that might be a good strategy to coronavirus vaccination. SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

While it’s now pretty easy to get a COVID-19 shot in most places in the U.S., the vaccine rollout in other parts of the world has been slow or inconsistent due to ...



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Chart School

Gold Seasonals and T Theory Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold tends to slump at the start of the US summer, and will Basel 3 make a difference this year?

Basel 3 has removed a large chuck of paper shorts off the LBMA, of course this is for the banks only, the hedge funds can continue to suppress gold with paper shorts. The true effect of Basel 3 may not be known for some month. 


A typical pattern in the metals is a smash down just before a major rally, consider this:


POINT 1: IRD recent post did say this

..."I’m wondering if the entire 'Kabuki Theatre' production is being staged to...



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Politics

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

 

The Ukraine Fallacies (with Victor Rud)

Americans are confused about the history of Ukraine. That's just how Russia wants it.

Courtesy of Greg Olear, at PREVAIL

Greg is the author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia 

...

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Promotions

Live Webinar with Phil on Option Strategies

 

June is TD Bank's Option Education Month, and today (Thursday, June 10) at 1 pm EST, Phil will speak with host Bryan Rogers about selling options and various option strategies that we use here at Phil's Stock World. Don't miss this event!

Click here to register for TD's live webinar with Phil.

 

...

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Digital Currencies

Crypto: Congress Dawdles as $1.7 Trillion Con-Game Goes Unregulated, Threatening Reputation of U.S. Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

If you want to get your hair cut outside of your home in the United States, the job has to be done by a licensed worker at a regulated business. The same thing applies to plumbers, electricians, home inspectors, real estate and insurance agents. They all require a license and are subject to regulatory scrutiny.

Likewise, commodities like corn, sugar, wheat, lumber and oil are all traded on regulated exchanges which are overseen by a federal regulator.

But, for reasons that have yet to be explained to the American people, when it comes to the $1.7 trillion cryptocurrency market – which is effectively a con-g...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.