Author Archive for ilene

The Fed finds another kitchen sink to throw at us

 

The Fed finds another kitchen sink to throw at us

Courtesy of 

This morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking on the just-unveiled $2.3 trillion plan to get more money flowing throughout our shutdown economy.

The Fed’s dual mandate is stable prices and full employment. This morning we learned that another 6 million people have filed for unemployment insurance last week, which is on top of the 10 million cumulative from the previous two weeks. Small and midsize enterprises account for more than 40% of all economic activity and employment – so going directly to Main Street with a lending facility is every bit as vital as lowering overnight borrowing rates for banks. Arguably, it’s even more directly effective.

Wall Street Journal:

The Fed said it would offer through banks four-year loans in which payments can be deferred for one year to businesses with up to 10,000 employees or revenues of less than $2.5 billion. Loans through this Main Street Lending Program, which will initially fund up to $600 billion in loans, will be subject to restrictions on stock buybacks, dividends and executive compensation. Firms that have received separate forgivable loans for payroll costs from the Small Business Administration will be eligible to seek Main Street loans as well.

The central bank will also be buying corporate credit and backstopping municipal debt markets. Here’s Peter Boockvar:

Today’s bazooka is up to “$2.3 Trillion in loans to support the economy.”

Backed by $75b of equity financing into the Main Street Lending program, the Fed will buy up to $600b in loans. In other words, banks will originate loans of 4 yr term “to companies employing up to 10,000 workers or with revenues of less than $2.5b. Principal and interest payments will be deferred for one year…Banks will retain a 5% share, selling the remaining 95% to the Main Street facility, which will purchase up to $600b of loans. Firms seeking Main Street loans must commit to make reasonable efforts to maintain payroll and retain workers.”

They are also enlarging the size


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COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprising story emerges: Poor communities are hot spots for COVID transmission. The death rate from COVID-19 appears to be staggeringly high among African Americans compared to whites. The Washington Post reports, for example, that while 14% of the Michigan population is black, 40% of COVID-19 deaths are among blacks.

This is a familiar pattern to a social and infectious disease epidemiologist like myself. It is evidence of centuries of segregation and discrimination that have disproportionately placed people of color in communities without access to health care, with degraded and crowded living conditions and a lack of basic opportunities for health and wellness.

In the context of the current pandemic, blacks are more likely to have low-paying jobs that do not allow remote work options or offer health insurance or paid medical leave. The result of centuries of sidelining by American society plays out most obviously in worse health.

Blacks are more likely to work in low-paying jobs, such as custodial work and food service, that cannot be done remotely. Here, a server adds stuffed cabbage to an order at The Boys Farmers Market in Delray Beach, Fla. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

No wealth, poor health

The poor and marginalized already unfairly bear the burden of other diseases such as asthma, certain kinds of cancer, stroke and cardiovascular disease. This ongoing pandemic looks to be no different. And poverty in the U.S. is very much tied to race and ethnicity. In 2018, 11% of whites had a household income below the federal poverty level compared to 23% of blacks and 19%…
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The New York Fed, Owned by Multinational Banks, Is Nationalizing Capital Markets

Courtesy of Pam Martens

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

For the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve, it has signed on to a plan with Congress to nationalize the unmanageable debts of global banks and other multinational corporations and put the U.S. taxpayer on the hook for the losses. Conducting the bulk of these programs will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, known as the New York Fed, which is a private institution owned by (wait for it) multinational banks.

Because the New York Fed is owned by multinational banks and is allowed to create trillions of dollars out of thin air to conduct bailouts of global banks and multinational corporations since it created this precedent in 2008, it is effectively functioning as a multinational central bank with the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell little more than titular props for what’s really going on.

According to the language in the recent stimulus bill (CARES Act) passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump, together with an interview Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave to the Today show on March 26, the nationalization of bad debts will work like this: the U.S. Treasury will hand $454 billion of taxpayers’ money to the Federal Reserve. The Fed will, in turn, hand the bulk of this money to the New York Fed. The New York Fed will then create Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) using the $454 billion as loss absorbing capital (equity) to leverage its purchases of bad debts to $4.54 trillion. Ostensibly, if debt markets keep sinking and the New York Fed needs to buy up more bad debts from the global banks and multinational corporations, Congress and the U.S. Treasury will put the U.S. into ever deeper debt to oblige our multinational overlords. (Before the last financial crisis, U.S. national debt stood at $11 trillion. It has more than doubled in a dozen years to the current $24 trillion. Much of that growth resulted from fiscal stimulus measures to shore up the U.S. economy that multinational banks on Wall Street destroyed in 2008.)

So far, the Fed has newly announced
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Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come – Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This downside move has been mostly straight down, excluding a brief retracement in early March. The strength of this downside price move suggests a moderate upside price recovery will take place before the next downside leg sets up.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart of 2008-09 Credit Crisis Market Collapse

Throughout the 2008-09 Credit Crisis market collapse, prices staged multiple recovery attempts within the downward price trend.  The first, after the initial -20.88% selloff in late 2007, resulted in a +14.83% price recovery that lasted for over 15+ weeks.  The second recovery, near the end of July 2008, resulted in a +9.56% recovery after a nearly -17% price decline.  After this brief recovery in July 2008, the price collapsed by a massive -44% from August to November 2008.


Daily S&P 500 Chart

This Daily ES chart highlights the first two levels of resistance at 2700 & 2870 that could stall the rally and prompt a downside price move in the future. Support is currently at 2450.  We believe the 2700 level will act as a soft ceiling in the ES where price may attempt to rally, briefly, above this level, which it did yesterday, then pull back and pause as selling pressure re-enters the market.  The 2870 level may act as a hard ceiling where price may attempt to reach this level but immediately reverse back to the downside.

Overall, we believe continued selling as a result of forward global economic expectations is the most…
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Striking Amazon, Instacart employees reveal how a basic economic principle could derail our ability to combat the coronavirus

 

Striking Amazon, Instacart employees reveal how a basic economic principle could derail our ability to combat the coronavirus

Samuel Diaz, a delivery worker for Amazon Prime, loads his vehicle with groceries from Whole Foods in Miami. AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Leigh Osofsky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A series of recent protests by the workers preparing and delivering our essential foods and other goods highlights a key risk to our ability to combat the coronavirus.

Some employees at an Amazon warehouse and Instacart “shoppers” briefly walked off the job on March 30, citing inadequate health protections and compensation. And Whole Foods workers organized a national “sick out” protest to pressure the grocery chain for hazard pay and more protections.

With most Americans sheltering in place, these workers are among the millions of individuals who face heightened risks as they continue to do their jobs keeping our refrigerators and pantries stocked during the pandemic. But because of an economic theory I study known as “positive externalities,” most of them aren’t being adequately compensated for it.

Creating positive externalities

A positive externality is created when someone’s private behavior leads to broader social benefits. Common examples include when someone buys a hybrid car, gets vaccinated or stops smoking. In each of these examples, someone’s private behavior reduces risks for everyone.

A negative externality, on the other hand, is when private behavior leads to a public harm, such as pollution from a factory.

By delivering food and other supplies, workers at Instacart, Whole Foods and hundreds of other companies are reducing the need for people to congregate and thus lowering the systemic risk of COVID-19 for everyone.

This is an essential public health benefit at a critical time in the pandemic. Without them, it would be much harder to fulfill government stay-in-place orders and slow the spread of COVID-19.

But in general they perform jobs that pay relatively little, and the workers say they lack basic protective gear such as hand sanitizer and masks that would keep them safe.


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In the rush to innovate for COVID-19 drugs, sound science is still essential

 

In the rush to innovate for COVID-19 drugs, sound science is still essential

Employees work on the production line of chloroquine phosphate, resumed after a 15-year break, in a pharmaceutical company in Nantong city in east China’s Jiangsu province Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020. Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Christopher Robertson, University of Arizona; Alison Bateman-House, New York University Langone Medical Center ; Holly Fernandez Lynch, University of Pennsylvania, and Keith Joiner, University of Arizona

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been at the center of debate in recent weeks over which drugs should be used to treat COVID-19. Neither product has strong evidence to support use for this purpose, and small studies reported to date have either had significant flaws or failed to demonstrate effect.

Nonetheless, the president can’t seem to stop pushing them, arguing that patients have nothing to lose. As physicians, bioethicists and drug law experts, we have a responsibility to inject caution here. As public officials and scientists rush to innovate, no one should overlook the critical role of strong regulatory protections in supporting our ability to actually figure out which drugs work against COVID-19. Weakening commitment to science and evidence during this crisis truly would be “a cure worse” than the disease.

The FDA is on the lookout for fraudulent products that claim to cure COVID-19. Getty Images / Al Drago / CQ Roll Call

FDA’s emergency use authorization

There are no Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs to treat COVID-19, and no product has strong data to support its use against this disease. Nonetheless, on March 28, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for certain hydroxychloroquine sulfate and chloroquine phosphate products donated to the strategic national stockpile by various pharmaceutical companies. The EUA was granted exclusively to the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), allowing it to distribute these stockpiled drugs to local public health authorities for the unapproved use of treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients unable to participate in clinical trials.

An EUA is not the same as the FDA’s traditional…
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A coronavirus vaccine that wouldn’t require a shot

 

A coronavirus vaccine that wouldn't require a shot

Wouldn’t it be nice if getting a vaccine was a simple as putting on a Band-Aid? UPMC, CC BY-SA

Louis Falo, University of Pittsburgh

As labs around the world race to develop a vaccine, my colleagues and I are trying to find a better way to deliver it than the standard, cringe-inducing shot.

I am an immunologist and dermatologist, and my colleagues and I have been working on vaccines against the very related coronaviruses that cause MERS and SARS. We were able to use the resources and systems we had already developed to very rapidly create a vaccine candidate for this new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that we have tested in mice.

Called the PittCoVacc vaccine, it is a simple protein vaccine that is made from a small piece of one of the virus’s proteins, much like some of the flu vaccines that are now on the market.

There are currently many groups around the world working to develop a vaccine. What’s different with our design is the way the vaccine is delivered to people. Rather than inject the vaccine via a traditional shot, we use a small patch which has hundreds of small needles. We hope this delivery device will be simpler to produce in large numbers and administer to people.

Band-Aid with ‘microneedles’

Like traditional vaccines, our vaccine uses a small piece of the virus as an antigen, or “target” to stimulate the body’s immune response to make antibodies that recognize and bind to that target on the virus.

In this case, the target is from the virus’s S1 spike protein. This is the critical part of the virus that recognizes a protein receptor on our own human cells – and works much like putting the virus’s key in our own cells’ lock. Once the spike protein attaches to our cells, it enables the virus to enter our cells and cause the infection.

Our team at the University of Pittsburgh hopes that the antibodies our patients make after receiving the vaccine will bind to this key, and block it from fitting into the lock. That would prevent…
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Math misconceptions may lead people to underestimate the true threat of COVID-19

 

Math misconceptions may lead people to underestimate the true threat of COVID-19

Americans have been advised to keep six feet away from everyone else when they can’t stay home. Nur Photo/Getty Images

Courtesy of Clarissa A. Thompson, Kent State University ; Jennifer Taber, Kent State University ; Karin Coifman, Kent State University , and Pooja Sidney, University of Kentucky

People all across the U.S. claim that they are “not math people.” They even readily admit to their hatred for some math fundamentals, such as fractions. For instance, a participant in one of our research studies on how well adults understand fractions proclaimed: “Fractions are my worst nightmare!”

Could people’s fear and avoidance of math, and their common mathematical mistakes in school, also lead to misunderstandings in the real world about just how dangerous COVID-19 is to their own health and to society in general?

We are psychology scholars, and two of us – Clarissa Thompson and Pooja Sidney – are experts in the field of mathematical cognition. It is our job to investigate how people of all ages learn about math. We also identify good and bad strategies that people often use when they try to solve hard math problems. Based on these observations, we have come up with several ways to help everyone gain more insight into how math works.

One very common misconception we’re concerned about is known as “whole number bias.” Based on headlines and news accounts about the novel coronavirus, we wonder if this bias might lead people to underestimate their own and others’ risks associated with COVID-19.

Breaking down the numbers

Fractions are made up of two parts: the numerator – for instance, the 3 in the fraction ¾ – and the the denominator – for instance, the 4 in the fraction ¾. Another way to think about this fraction is: “of 4 parts, 3.”

Whole number bias happens when people tend to automatically think about the numerators and denominators of fractions as whole numbers before they process the numbers more deeply to grasp their actual size.

For example,…
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BONDS AND VOLATILITY BALANCED WITH THE RECENT RUN IN US MARKETS

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Addressing the recent moves higher in US markets while also considering

the drop in bonds and volatility. To wrap up the call Cory and Chris also

share a strategy for trading high volatility markets while reducing overall risk.


Get Chris’ ETF Analysis and Trade Signals Here

Listen to more of Cory Flecks Great Talks at www.KEreport.com





From Trump to tRUmp: How the Mob’s Man Became Putin’s Puppet

 

From Trump to tRUmp: How the Mob’s Man Became Putin’s Puppet

The President of the United States is a Russian asset—property owned by Moscow.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

ON 19 OCTOBER 2016, in the third and final presidential debate, Hillary Clinton opined that Vladimir Putin would “rather have a puppet as president of the United States,” meaning Donald John Trump, than a formidable adversary like her. As Trump short-circuited like a Star Wars droid on the fritz (“No puppet. No puppet. You're the puppet!”), she continued:

It’s pretty clear you won't admit that the Russians have engaged in cyberattacks against the United States of America, that you encouraged espionage against our people, that you are willing to spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, break up NATO, do whatever he wants to do, and that you continue to get help from him, because he has a very clear favorite in this race.

So I think that this is such an unprecedented situation. We've never had a foreign government trying to interfere in our election. We have 17 intelligence agencies, civilian and military, who have all concluded that these espionage attacks, these cyberattacks, come from the highest levels of the Kremlin and they are designed to influence our election. I find that deeply disturbing.

As usual, HRC was right. But even the most cynical viewer could scarce have imagined, in the fall of 2016, just how on the nose she was.

Trump’s activities since taking office—the gutting of the State Department, the jackals in the Oval Office, Helsinki, Mueller obstruction, Ukraine skulduggery, and his willful non-response to the covid pandemic—make clear that the longtime mob money launderer has spent most of his presidency doing Putin’s bidding, just as Clinton predicted. Allow cyberattacks against the United States? Check. Encourage espionage against our people? Check. Spout the Putin line? Always. Sign up for his wish list? Like a porn addict on OnlyFans. Break up NATO? Western Europe is as divided now as it’s been since the forties. Continue to get help from him? Every fucking day.

Three years after that third debate, almost exactly to the day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stormed out of…
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Zero Hedge

The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research

As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A):

These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have.

Our ability is limited by the law. We have to find u...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
01:16:00 - Portfolio Projection: Income Portfolio
01:17:23 - FUTURES
01:18:49 - Earnings Portfolio
01:19:27 - STP | LTP
01:22:52 - S&P 500
01:30:05 - AAPL
01:34:15 - VIX
01:36:00 - M
01:42:56 - VIAC
01:47:02 - XOM
01:50:29 - LB
01:52:44 - IRBT
01:57:48 - Crude Oil WTI
02...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

April 9, 2020 Update: More than 1.5 million people around the world have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and nearly 90,000 have died. In the U.S., the death toll surpassed 14,000 on Wednesday. Tuesday alone saw a record 1,858 deaths. So far, approximately 425,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19.

Although researchers say the peak hasn’t been reached yet, the model in use by the White House and many other agencies was updated on Wednesday. The number of projected deaths from the virus in the U.S. declined to 60,415 by August, compared...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.