login | become a member

Archive for August 16th, 2008

Swing trading portfolio - Optrader

A very good month again in the portfolio: +41%! The swing trading portfolio is now up 626% since beginning, 5 months ago, without compounding.
All trades were posted live in the comments and in the portfolio and most of them were simple calls or puts.

During the month we closed 22 trades. 13 (59%) of them were winning trades and 9 (41%) were losses.
Total wins were 20.18R
Total losses were 6.55R
Average win was 1.55R
Average loss was 0.72R

Expectancy is (59%X1.55R)-(41%X0.72R)=0.62R
This means that on average we should expect on each trade a profit of 0.62R.

Our expectancy decreased significantly compared to previous month (was 1.84R last month). This is due to the fact that we did not have any big winners. Average win was only 1.55R this month. The reason is that it was a very choppy month and we had to take profits fast when we saw them. We also traded less (22 VS 31 closed trades), because of this choppy environment. Still very happy that we got a positive expectancy.

Hopefully next month we will be able to let more trades run. It started very well, as we have some opened trades right now such as AAPL and GOOG that we have been riding for a while.

Again, I want to thank everyone who has been participating in the comments. It feels that the group is becoming better and better every month and the discussions more interesting.

Live portfolio is posted below but live updates are only available to subscribers to the swing trading portfolio.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader




 

Phil's Favorites

Dave's Daily

MARKET COMMENT

November 19, 2008, courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest. 

 

Another Big Wednesday? Oh yeah! Of course what Laird Hamilton is doing in this video is an awesome ride of guts but ultimately beautiful at the same time. We can’t say the same thing about the stock market now can we?

more from Ilene

Trading Goddess

Post Comments

(no, no... that is not me!
Add a couple decades, dye the hair brown,
have a couple children and voila!
That's is me!)...

more from Goddess

The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson and Rebecca Darst



JPMorgan decline sets off bullish option bets for 2009

Today’s tickers: JPM, BBY, ACE, IRM, SHLD & CSCO

JPM – JP Morgan Chase & Co. – With the market in meltdown mode, investors are once again departing all shades of financial shares. There are new lows today at several major financial institutions including blue-blooded JP Morgan. The 52-week $28.87 low is a radical shift from the $50.50 52-week peak set three days into October. We’re not sure many financial companies can claim to have traded annual peaks and lows in such a short space of time, but this underscores the negative outlook for the economy and companies regardless of shade. Options on JPM are in play today with large buying of this week’s expiring 30 strike puts at 1.40 premium. Today’s investor interest at that strike is equal to the outstanding number of puts at the strike and shows h

more from Andrew

Stock and Option Trades
(Advanced option strategies)

Fuzzy Math!

Have you ever seen literature from a fund posting attractive gains and comparing its performance to that of the benchmark S&P 500?  Have you ever investigated how the figures listed were calculated?  If not, you will definitely want to read on! Let's take a fairly representative example.  Fund Manager Joe Bull, for example, is very good at generating profits in bull markets.  Let's say Joe Bull made 20% in each of the years 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007.  But Joe Bull does not have the toolset to survive bear markets and finds in 2008 that he is down 30%.  What has Joe Bull's return been over 5 years? It turns out, the answer to that questions depends greatly on what Joe Bull wants to report as his return!  Why? Because little regulation exists to prevent Joe Bull from choosing any number of mathematical approaches to calculate his return! For example, fund manager Joe could simply take the average of his returns over 5 years.  This would be calculated as the sum of 2 more from Option Trades

Option Sage
(Strategy and Education)

Trivia Time!

Let's say you decide to deposit $100,000 into a brokerage account.  You decide you will check your portfolio on a weekly basis.  Now let's further assume that the first week has passed and you are about to log in to your account.  But before you do, you are told that one of two things has happened in the past week.

[1]  Your portfolio went up $10,000 and then dropped $10,000

[2]  Your portfolio went up 10% and then dropped 10%.

So, the trivia question is:  In case [1], what should you expect your account value to be and is that the same figure as in case [2]?

If you answered $100,000 in case [1], you would be absolutely correct!  If you answered that this is the same as in case [2] you would be absolutely incorrect!  Why?  Well let's take a look at what happens when the portfolio rises 10% first; it goes from $100,000 to $110,000.  But then we're told it drops 10%.  10% of $110,000 is $11,000 more from Option Sage


0.36 seconds, 30 queries.