Archive for
September 20th, 2009
by ilene - September 20th, 2009 11:45 pm
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
Again, "WTF"?
A Swiss bank that used its Cayman Islands’ branch to engage in what a US federal judge has branded “predatory lending practices” is being investigated by the US authorities.
Senior officials of Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest bank, are facing claims that they pocketed millions of dollars by dishing out loans that were impossible to repay.
Impossible to repay? What’s the judge say about this?
Credit Suisse has now been accused of loaning the money in an unorthodox and lucrative deal for the bank that federal bankruptcy judge Ralph B. Kirscher described in May this year as a case of “naked greed” that “shocks the conscience of this court.”
This was a bunch of low-level employees, or even middling staff, right? Uh, wrong:
Brady Dougan, the Chief Executive Officer of Credit Suisse First Boston, and Hans-Ulrich Doerig, Chairman of the Board of Directors, received the subpoenas along with past and current Executive Board officials and Credit Suisse’s Board.
“Bank officials have testified that Credit Suisse created a Cayman Islands ‘branch’ in 2005 to sell these loans.
“In reality, there was no phone and no staff in the bank’s phony branch.
“They used the Caymans to circumvent US banking laws and to issue inflated loans that Credit Suisse executives called a ‘gravy train’ in internal memos.“
What?!
The allegations here are that this institution’s directors, including the Chairman of the Board and its Chief Executive Officer were both involved in setting up a branch in the Cayman Islands that had no staff and no phones?
This makes two Swiss banks.
First we had UBS that ran a "private bank" for "special" US Citizens who didn’t want to pay their taxes and which, it is alleged, actually conspired with some of them to do things like hide diamonds in toothpaste tubes while crossing the US Border so as to secret out wealth without the IRS knowing about it.
Some few thousand (about 10%) of those "wealthy" US citizens were threatened with being "outed" (and presumably will be) but the rest…. well, there’s no enforcement there, right?
Now we have a judge that has said something…
Tags: Credit Suisse, Karl Denninger, predatory lending practices
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by Chart School - September 20th, 2009 11:31 pm
Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade
A reader brought this chart to my attention, and I wanted to show a version of the monthly S&P 500 Index with respect to the 20 month SMA, RSI Indicator, and McClellan Oscillator.
This is a deviation from what I normally show, but this time we’re looking at volume, the RSI Indicator, and NYSE McClellan Oscillator (a breadth oscillator) on the monthly frame.
Price has rallied upwards to the falling 20 month simple moving average (green) and has done so on falling volume virtually every month since the March 2009 lows.
The RSI – coming off of deeply oversold territory – rests just shy of the 50 level, which alone can provide resistance (at the half-way junction).
Finally, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, as I mentioned in a previous post, is forming a divergence with price. The oscillator spike to 75 (closing basis), which was the highest level seen since the birth of the 2004 rally that led us to the 2007 highs.
Bursts up like this in the McClellan Oscillator are positive, and can underlie future strength… as we’ve seen off the late 2008/early 2009 burst to new highs.
The Oscillator is forming a distinct negative divergence with price as we’ve continued to rally – that’s a bearish non-confirmation.
As bulls have shown, there’s no guarantee these developments will lead to a down move, but it’s something the bulls certainly have to overcome to keep the market rallying.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Tags: $SPX chart analysis
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by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2009 11:24 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
There is blood in the water… that of Ken Lewis, and the sharks are all over it. The latest to join the dismemberment party of one Bank Of America Chief Executive Officer, is New York Representative, and Chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Edolphus Towns. And while the traditional defense provided by Lewis, BofA, and respective lawyers, has been one which delegates any wrongdoing to the attorney-client privilege gray area, Towns has told the bank it “cannot use attorney-client privilege when dealing with Congress.” The last piece of armor that Lewis had has just been torn off. From a strategic point of view, the question now becomes whether Ken Lewis, soon to be faced with the traditional prisoner’s dilemma, will out his “dealer” Hank Paulson, in exchange for a slap on the wrist, as the alternative could be a much more gruesome fate easily involving an 8×10 cell.
From the New York Times:
In a sternly worded letter on Friday, Mr. Towns, a New York Democrat, said the bank must divulge when it became aware of the enormous losses at Merrill last year, when it received a commitment from the federal government for a second round of bailout money and what legal advice its management received about whether it had to disclose those developments to the bank’s shareholders.
Mr. Towns gave the bank until noon on Monday to provide answers and relevant legal documents. He said it seemed that the bank was “hiding information.” The bank replied to Mr. Towns’s committee late on Saturday, asking him to delay that request until after Tuesday, when Mr. Towns meets with Anne Finucane, the bank’s chief strategy and marketing officer, who oversees public policy at the bank. But a spokesman for Mr. Towns said on Sunday that he was sticking to the deadline.
At this point Lewis is done. Whether it is the judicial track spearheaded by Rakoff, the criminal one where Andrew Cuomo shows no signs of relenting, or the Congressional, now that Towns has joined the fray, the CEO is over. The question is will he go down quietly, and be the sacrificial lamb for a confluence of many different interests, or will his fall be one of flames not only for the former Treasury Secretary but also for the current Chairman…
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by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2009 9:56 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Newton’s third law of motion: F1 = -F2
Obama’s first and only law of economics: Stimulus Today = 2x Hangover Tomorrow
In 10 days auto companies will announce their September auto sales. If auto specialist Edmunds.com is right, expect to see an unprecedented decline in the September SAAR number: from 13.7 million in August to a 28 year low of 8.8 million!
September’s light-vehicle sales rate will fall to 8.8 million units, consumer auto site Edmunds.com said. That would be the lowest rate in nearly 28 years, tying the worst demand on record.
After the cash-for-clunkers program boosted August sales to their first year-over-year increase since October 2007, demand has plunged. In at least the last 33 years, the U.S. seasonally adjusted annual rate has only dropped as low as 8.8 million units once — in December 1981 — with records stretching back to January 1976.
Demand increased to 8.9 million in the first five days of September, with 3.6 percent of sales from cash for clunkers. The rate slipped to 8.7 million from Sept. 6 to Sept. 12, Edmunds.com said, with 3.3 percent of deals leftover from cash for clunkers.
The slide in demand also has lowered the average dealer profit per vehicle, the consumer auto site said. The average was $981 the week leading up to the July 24 launch of cash for clunkers, and that steadily increased to $1,494 the last week of the program. As of last week, average dealer profit had slipped to $1,303 per vehicle.
“Many people regard February as the darkest month of the recession, but even then the SAAR was higher, at 9.1 million units,” Edmunds.com senior statistician Zhenwei Zhou said in a statement.
And the simple observation that anyone in Obama’s crack team who had ever read Econ 101 would have figured out:
Now that consumers can’t receive $3,500 to $4,500 for trading in gas guzzlers for new vehicles with better fuel efficiency, they aren’t rushing to purchase vehicles.
The silver lining: thousands of Americans took out new lines of credit and other loans that will add to the increasing monthly bill, while their wages (if they are lucky to be employed) decline in real (and nominal) terms, or have less and…
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by ilene - September 20th, 2009 9:15 pm
Courtesy of Adam Sharp’s Bearish News
William Black is the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry
.
He is an expert on white-collar crime and former financial regulator. He played a key role in resolving the S&L crisis. Currently he teaches economics and law at UKMC. See his full bio here, his Huffington Post pieces here, and definitely watch his Bill Moyers interview if you haven’t yet.
On to the interview:
#1) Adam: If you were advising President Obama on financial reform, what would your first priority be?
Mr. Black: Containing, and beginning to end, “too big to fail.” Financial institutions that are too big to fail are not, as the administration has rebranded them: “systemically important” — they are systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs). First, they should not be allowed to grow. Second, their managements should be removed if they were mismanaged. Third, they should be shrunk to the point that they no longer endanger the global economy.
#2) Adam: Do you think it is likely that meaningful reforms will be passed under the current administration?
Mr. Black: I think it remains “likely” (i.e., >50% chance), but I think it is only barely likely and I think the odds of meaningful reform are falling. I think the two hopes for fundamental reform under this administration are the new “Pecora commission” which should document the compelling need for change and the fact that the problems at the giant zombie banks are so great that there will be another crisis within the next four years. (I explained this point in more detail in my recent piece in the NYT’s “Room for Debate” on this subject.)
The odds of meaningful reform are substantially higher under President Obama than they were under President Bush or would have been under President McCain.
#3) Adam: Do you feel that your outspoken views preclude you from future government appointments?
Mr. Black: My crucial CLGs (”career limiting gestures”) were being a serial whistleblower and helping to cause two presidential appointees (i.e., my bosses) to resign in disgrace. I also played some role in Speaker Wright’s decision to resign in disgrace and the embarrassment of the Keating Five. Pointing out that
…
Tags: Adam Sharp, Audit the Fed, credit risk, Ron Paul, William Black
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by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2009 8:11 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
While most hedge funds traditionally have an on-shore and an off-shore investment vehicle, the bulk of investable capital is allocated to accounts domiciled in the Caymans, Bahamas, Isle of Man, or some other tax “friendly” country, as LPs are never too crazy about that little snag known as taxes, and offshoring provides some nice and useful alternatives to said snag. Distressed hedge funds, those that acquire either secured or unsecured debt with the hope of equitization, are no exception. Yet equitization by essentially foreign vehicles is starting to get some dirty looks by regulators, which limit “foreign” equity investments in traditionally American companies and sectors. Some developments in the upcoming restructurings of media companies may put a new wrinkle on what is promptly becoming the most prevalent and profitable means for hedge funds to invest capital (not by necessity but for the simple reason that if a sector is not too big to fail, it is likely failing massively). The case of Citadel Broadcasting, which Zero Hedge discussed recently as commentary highlighting the lunacy of the current investment climate, is just such an example.
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Wall Street lenders are tripping over federal media-ownership rules as they find themselves the unexpected owners of several distressed radio, television and newspaper companies.
The issue has taken center stage at Citadel Broadcasting Corp., as one of the U.S.’s largest radio broadcasters races to revamp its balance sheet. Citadel has offered senior lenders owed $2 billion — including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., General Electric Co.’s GE Capital and ING Groep NV — a deal that would exchange a big chunk of debt for equity, people familiar with the negotiations said.
On Wednesday, Citadel faced a deadline to make a $2 million interest payment, but its status remained unclear. Talks have slowed in recent days in part because some lenders have been caught off-guard by Federal Communications Commission rules designed to limit concentrated holdings of media firms, said people familiar with the matter.
For big banks and hedge funds holding debt in everything from radio and television stations to newspapers, FCC rules have made restructurings more complex. The FCC must approve media sales and has specific rules that limit ownership of multiple media outlets in individual markets, even when such shareholder
…
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by ilene - September 20th, 2009 7:01 pm
Rick Bookstaber writes an excellent essay on Wall St. economics addressing why our economic system does not reflect true capitalism. As explored recently, this supports the premise that we do not have fair and free markets. (E.g., see Don’t Blame Free Markets, They Never Existed.) – Ilene
Welcome to Rick, and for more by Rick, please visit his blog.
Courtesy of Rick Bookstaber
Will regulation hobble capitalism? I think the opposite is true. Properly done, government regulation of the financial industry will move the industry closer to the capitalist ideal. By capitalism, I mean where those who take the risks and put up the money get the fruits of their labor. And, importantly, where those who take the risks and put up the money actually do take the risks, bearing the full costs of failure as well as success.
Capitalism means bearing the costs
I sometimes miss the rugged beauty of Utah, where I spent some of my pre-Wall Street years. From my house on the foothills of the Wasatch mountains, I could see the cliffs of Mount Nebo to the south, nearly fifty miles away. Ten miles north, the western face of Mt. Timpanogas, capped with snow into early summer. To the west, the sun reflecting on Utah Lake. Oh, and on the eastern shore of the lake, the black smoke billowing out the stacks of Geneva Steel.
Geneva Steel was built to produce steel during the war effort, and kept in operation until seven years ago. It teetered at the edge – and at least two times over the edge – of bankruptcy, closing for good in 2002. Left behind were assorted furnaces, presses and scrap metal sold to a Chinese steel producer, and a giant pond of toxic sludge.
Fortunately, we’ve learned a thing or two about toxic sludge in steel production. The steel producer, in this case the original parent of the Geneva plant, U.S. Steel, has to set aside a fund to pay for the clean-up. The sludge is part of the production process, and the clean-up is a cost of production, even though it is a cost that is not realized until many years down the road. As a result, steel costs are a little higher and the shareholders fare a little worse than if this longer-term expense were not forced onto…
Tags: Bankruptcy, bearing the losses, capitalism, financial industry, government regulation, limited liability corporations, profits, risks, Wall Street's toxic sludge
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by ilene - September 20th, 2009 6:22 pm
Courtesy of Washington’s Blog
We’ve all been taught that banks first build up deposits, and then loan extend credit and loan out their excess reserves.
But critics of the current banking system claim that this is not true, and that the order is actually reversed.
Sounds crazy, right?
Certainly.
But take a look at the following quotes:
“[Banks] do not really pay out loans from the money they receive as deposits. If they did this, no additional money would be created. What they do when they make loans is to accept promissory notes in exchange for credits to the borrowers’ transaction accounts."
- 1960s Chicago Federal Reserve Bank booklet entitled “Modern Money Mechanics”
"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . . . . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. . . . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. . . . But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit."
- Sir Josiah Stamp, president of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s.
Banks create money. That is what they are for. . . . The manufacturing process to make money consists of making an entry in a book. That is all. . . . Each and every time a Bank makes a loan . . . new Bank credit is created — brand new money.
- Graham Towers, Governor of the Bank of Canada from 1935 to 1955
[W]hen a bank makes a loan, it simply adds to the borrower’s deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else’s deposit; it was not previously paid in to the
…
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by Zero Hedge - September 20th, 2009 4:13 pm
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The degree of intermediation by the Federal Reserve in the issuance of US Treasuries hit a record in Q2, accounting for just under 50% of all net UST issuance absorption. This is a startling number, as the Fed’s $164 billion in Q2 Treasury purchases dwarfs the combined foreign/household UST purchases of $101 billion and $29 billion, respectively, over the same time period. In fact, the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases.
This dramatic imbalance puts a lot of question marks over how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up, now that QE only has $15 billion of capacity for USTs: with Households lapping up risky assets it is unlikely they will look at Treasuries absent some dramatic downward move in equities, while Foreign purchasers, which many speculate are in a game of Mutual Assured Destruction regarding UST purchases, have in fact been aggressively lowering their purchases of Treasuries (from $159 billion in Q1 to $101 billion in Q2, an almost 40% decline in appetite!). Will the US make these purchases much more attractive come October when QE for USTs ends? And if so, what kind of rates are we talking about? One thing is certain: in terms of priorities of the Federal Reserve, keeping the equity market buoyant, is a distant second to ensuring successful auction after auction well into 2010. After all there is near $9 trillion in budget deficits that need financing over the next 10 years.
From Morgan Stanley:
Flow of funds: The Fed also released its flow of funds data for Q2 on September 17. The main points are that:
- Households reduced Q2 Treasury purchases from their blistering pace in Q1
- Foreign accounts reduced Q2 UST purchases as the Fed ramped up Q/E ops
- Bank Q2 purchases remained anemic despite the fall in other lending options
- Broker/dealer purchases were high but not sustainable, expect Q3 moderation
Households out…The salient points here include confirmation that the ‘households’ bid for $377 billion Treasuries in Q1 was a one-time reallocation trade as this account took down a much smaller $29 billion in Q2. We were afraid that this flow would
…
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February 10th, 2012 10:43 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by CrownThomas.
Italy's Prime Minister (and self appointed economy minister) shot over to CNBC after his meeting with President Obama this afternoon to discuss how well everything looks for Italy since he was elected took over.
Notable Comments:
- Italian banks are "vulnerable" but have recapitalized themselves (rather, the ECB has given them money)
- He had a good meeting with Obama, and Obama is supportive (he's careful to...
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February 10th, 2012 7:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Here's the latest weekend update from Serge Perreault, a Chartered Accountant and market technician located near Montreal, Canada. Serge has been following the U.S. market in a series of weekly charts. Here is his update on the S&P 500.
This week, the S&P 500 could not break so much resistance and now paused its ascension, on average volume and on falling momentum.
Notice also how the "Volume EMA10" has continued its downtrend.
...
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider
February 10th, 2012 4:22 pm
Courtesy of Mish
I am saddened to report that Michael Pettis' site China Financial Markets has been blocked. The link redirects to a site with a one line message "This Account Has Been Suspended". When I have more details, I will post them.
Note: I just heard back from Pettis who is unsure of what happened. Hopefully this will be cleared up soon. I am leaving the rest of this post as I originally wrote it.
This is really a shame because Pettis is invariably a great read. I am personally indebted because he has taught me most of what I know about trade.
Michael Pettis is Professor of Finance at Peking University, and Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
W...
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February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. -
Ilene...
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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February 10th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
CMISTRONGBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Cummins, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving.
NTGRBUYProjected value continues to rise for NETGEAR while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also i...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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About Phil:
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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