Archive for 2009

IS CHINA THE ACHILLES HEEL?

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IS CHINA THE ACHILLES HEEL?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Great piece of research here out of Societe General.  Is China, the supposed engine of global growth, actually the biggest risk to the global recovery?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/lib/data/filecache/attachment/G/l/Global-Strategy-Weekly-06-16-09.pdf

*****

"Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for all things China reminds me so much of the way investors were almost totally blind to the fact the US growth miracle was built on sand. China could be the biggest disappointment yet."

 Full report here.

 


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Bloated State Police Pension Plans

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Bloated State Police Pension Plans – Something Has To Give

Courtesy of Mish

The police union in Michigan is doing what public service unions in general usually do, 1) whine for more taxes 2) Complain they need more workers to maintain safety 3) Elect layoffs over reduced pay 4) Ignore the long term issues that need addressing.

Please consider Michigan State Police layoffs take effect Sunday.

LANSING, Mich. (AP) – About 100 Michigan State Police troopers will be laid off Sunday after a last-ditch effort to avoid the job loss failed.

Members of the Michigan State Police Troopers Association voted against a furlough plan that would have temporarily cut their pay to avoid layoffs of low seniority workers.

The furlough plan would have required troopers to take 37 hours of unpaid leave over a six-week period. That would have saved jobs now, but there was no guarantee low-seniority officers would have kept their jobs in the next budget year.

Mike Moorman, the troopers’ union president, said the vote reflects dissatisfaction with how the state has handled public safety funding in recent years. Michigan has lost more than 2,000 law enforcement officers statewide this decade, including more than 400 from the state police. Positions have been eliminated as government tax revenues decline during a lengthy recession.

"The membership’s rejection of furlough time is not a reflection on our unwillingness to stop the loss of 100 troopers," Moorman said in a statement. "Our members are fed up with the lack of public safety priorities in Michigan, which have been discussed for years, yet never acted upon."

Col. Peter Munoz, director of the Michigan State Police, said in a statement he is "deeply disappointed" a solution could not be found to avoid the layoffs.

The state spent more than $8 million in the past few years training the troopers it now plans to lay off to save less than $2 million in the current budget year.

Some state lawmakers continue to question why Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s administration plans to move the police department into a new $40 million headquarters building in downtown Lansing early next year. The move could have long-term financial implications for the state police — including significantly higher annual lease payments of $3.7 million


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Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Research: 90% Down Days Siganling Trouble Ahead

Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Research: 90% Down Days Siganling Trouble Ahead

A quick video with Paul Desmond, President of Lowry Research (oldest TA firm on the Street) … a lot of talk about the 90% down days we have started to see the past 2 weeks. Just another opinion to mix in with your whirlwind of various views…

 


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Swing trading virtual portfolio – Week of June 29th, 2009

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader





Members of U.S. House Financial Services Committee Trading Stocks

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The "appearance of a problem" or a problem? 

Here’s the definition of insider trading from wikipedia

"Insider trading is the trading of a corporation’s stock or other securities… by individuals with potential access to non-public information about the company. In most countries, trading by corporate insiders such as officers, key employees, directors, and large shareholders may be legal, if this trading is done in a way that does not take advantage of non-public information."  [emphasis mine - Ilene]

…"In May 2007, a bill entitled the "Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, or STOCK Act" was introduced that would hold congressional and federal employees liable for stock trades they made using information they gained through their jobs and also regulate analysts or "Political Intelligence" firms that research government activities. The bill has not passed."

Members of U.S. House Financial Services Committee snapped up or dumped bank stocks as bottom fell out of market

Posted by Stephen Koff and Sabrina Eaton/Plain Dealer Reporters

As financial markets tumbled and the government worked to stave off panic by pumping billions of dollars into banks last fall, several members of Congress who oversee the banking industry were grabbing up or dumping bank stocks.

Anticipating bargains or profits or just trying to unload before the bottom fell out, these members of the House Financial Services Committee or brokers on their behalf were buying and selling stocks including Bank of America and Citigroup — some of the very corporations their committee would later rap for greed, a Plain Dealer examination of congressional stock market transactions shows.

Financial disclosure records show that some of these Financial Services Committee members, including Ohio Rep. Charlie Wilson, made bank stock trades on the same day the banks were getting a government bailout from a program Congress approved. The transactions may not have been illegal or against congressional rules, but securities attorneys and congressional watchdog groups say they raise flags about the appearance of conflicts of interest.

"I don’t think that any of these people should be owning these types of financial instruments," said Brian Biggins, a Cleveland securities lawyer and former stock brokerage manager. "I’m not saying they shouldn’t be in the


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Weekend Reading – Can American Consumerism Save Us?

There's hardly any point doing a wrap-up as hardly anything has been happening.

If you are buried in the daily gyrations of the market, lots of stuff happens during the day but, as soon as you step back and look at the action – you'll notice nothing really happened at all.  After a catastrophic downturn on Monday, we pretty much bottomed out at 8,250 on Tuesday until Thursday's 200-point bump and here we are, back at good old 8,450 - which is where we bumped along for pretty much all of May

Indeed our best plays have, by far, been our premium burning plays, as attested by the very nice performance of our $111,659 Virtual Portfolio, our exercise in conservative hedging that is outperforming most risk-based strategies in this very choppy market.  The other winning strategy in this annoying market has been Day Trading, and we've had fantastic performance from our Oxen Group picks each morning and Ilene has a good article what David looks for in "The 5 Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade."  Combine that article with our Strategy Section and my article on scaling in and you have your own little day-trader's manual! 

Est2009gdpThis will be useful next week as we have a 4-day week (Friday is the observed 4th of July) and there's no way we want to go into the 3-day weekend with too many positions so it's going to be a lot of in and out trading once again.  I probably shouldn't, but I keep focusing on these silly fundamentals like Bespoke's GDP chart on the right.  These are FACTS, which are the things being ignored as you hear things like Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit 70.  I often point out that these are the same consumers – 60% of whom, when polled, believe their homes have held their value or gone up in value.  Just because they are all chipper for the pollsters, does not mean they will be out there turning these economies around.

US consumers are the New York Yankees of global consumption.  They are indimidating, they are record-setting and, from an historical perspective, they give the IMPRESSION of being unbeatable - but I grew up in New York and remember a streak from 1965 to 1975 when they didn't win a single pennant.  That's a team that has averaged one World Series Title every 3.3 years since 1923 (26 Times World Champs) and one
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The 5 Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade

For a free subscription to Phil’s Stock World, click here (it’s easy, no credit card required). 

David, at The Oxen Group, has been kindly providing us with day-trading picks before the market opens. He has an excellent track record, which is posted in Oxen Group section and updated every few days. Below is an outline of the factors he considers when identifying high-probability trading opportunities. For more, visit The Oxen Group website and sign up for a free newsletter. - Ilene

The 5 Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade

day trading, quotesOne of the main sections of our site is our Oxen Picks. These are day trades that The Oxen Group makes everyday that are ideas for stocks we believe will move up for a single day that investors can make 3-5% on each day. The Oxen Picks have had some significant growth since we started them, making nearly 40% on a $3,000 portfolio. The portfolio has no long-term stocks. Every stock we buy, we sell the same day. And, we only buy one stock every day. The method behind it, however, is sound and continues to foster growth. That method begins with fundamentals and the 5 Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade.

Today, I am going to lay out for you the five keys to executing the fundamental day trade that will help you become a better day trading investor by identifying 5 signals that can help you select a trade. These signals are easy to understand and they will help transform your trading style into a much more astute investment strategy.

Identifying the Fundamentals

To begin to look for that perfect stock or ETF that will move up 4-5% in a single day, we first need to look for something that can propel the stock. Even the best technicals seldom can give you 5% upward movement intraday alone. This 4-5% movement we are talking about, additionally, is not from yesterday’s close, but it is movement within the day. That means we want to identify a stock that can be bought sometime in the morning and sold later in the day that will give us significant upward movement from our entry.

Stocks do not move on their own, though, therefore there are a number of fundamentally bullish categories that we can use to identify stocks:

1. Earnings

There are multiple ways to play a company’s…
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Zombie Community Banks

Zombie Community Banks

zombie banks, dead banks walkingCourtesy of Tom Lindmark at BUT THEN WHAT

With all the hoopla this week about the big banks repaying their TARP loans you would tend to think that the program is, if not winding down, then in a collect the interest and wait for repayment mode. If that’s the case, they you’re thinking if wrong.

The WSJ reports that the Treasury is busier than ever dolling out money to banks. This time they aren’t shoveling it out the door in chunks of billions of dollars, rather they’re spooning it out to the nation’s community banks.

In contrast to Wall Street firms like J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and American Express Co. that returned $68.25 billion in one day this month to escape TARP and all the strings that were attached, a steady stream of small banks still is lining up for government money.

Since May 31, 20 small banks have received a total of $164.1 million in taxpayer-funded capital, according to the Treasury’s latest available figures. Half of those banks got the money in the same week that 10 big financial institutions gave theirs back.

Analysts see no end in sight to the trend. The recession and borrowers are squeezing most of the 8,200 federally insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S., so even a dollop of TARP funds could make a difference. Some banks are turning to the government to fill a void left by investors who are leery about pouring money into the sector, despite the rebound by bank stocks since early March.

Meanwhile, the rules and stigma of TARP that turned some executives such as J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO James Dimon against the program are irrelevant to small institutions.

Their employees usually don’t fly on corporate jets or collect hefty bonuses that trigger outrage from taxpayers, customers and Congress. And curbs on dividend payments are a modest price to pay for greater assurance that the banks can plow ahead with their core mission to gather local deposits, lend them nearby and support local charities, some recent TARP recipients said.

Maybe I’m missing the point, but TARP always seemed to me to have evolved into a program to recapitalize big banks, in essence to create the fiction that they were properly capitalized and hope that the banks would be able to repay the funds through earnings and a benevolent…
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The End of the Recession?

Courtesy of John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline

John Mauldin is a multiple NYT Best Selling author and recognized financial expert. He has been heard on CNBC, Bloomberg and many radio shows across the country.

The End of the Recession?green shoot

By John Mauldin

Last week we began a series on data abuse, about how various commentators twist and torture data to make it say what they want, or fail to look at the details underneath the headlines. Predictably, there is a lot of fodder this week as we forge ahead into this ripe territory. The headlines screamed that US income data went up unexpectedly. Green shoots were everywhere. But if you look at the actual data, you find something much different. And, I keep hearing the insistent refrain that the market is telling us that the recovery is around the corner. Well, the recovery may be, but can the market really tell us that? I have about 25 windows open in my computer, with tons of misleading data. Let’s see how much we can cover in this week’s letter.   [More information on John Mauldin's subscription service here.]

And now to funny-looking data. Where to begin? There are so many targets of opportunity!

The End of the Recession?

I walked into the office yesterday evening and there was someone on CNBC talking about how the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 rising above the 200-day moving average was telling us the market was getting ready to rise and the recovery had started. I listened to his babbling for another 2-3 minutes and couldn’t take it anymore (and no, it was not my friend Larry Kudlow, who is a lot more balanced than whoever was on.)

We keep getting told that the market is telling us "something," usually that the recession is going to end. For some reason, people keep repeating the bromide that the market looks out about 6 months. To that I politely say, rubbish.

Riddle me this, Batman. Did the market see the recession in October of 2007? We were already in recession and the S&P 500 (see below) was making new highs! Where was the market prescience? Did it see the 25%+ drop in January of this year? And I could go back and cite scores of examples where the market "missed" the future turning points over the past ten decades.

jm062609image001
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Embrace Deflation – It’s The Cure, Not The Problem

Embrace Deflation – It’s The Cure, Not The Problem

deflationCourtesy of Mish

Concern over Japanese deflation is increasing. Please consider Japan Succumbs to Deflation as Consumer Prices Fall Record 1.1%

Japan’s consumer prices fell at a record pace in May, adding to the risk that deflation will become entrenched and hamper a rebound from the nation’s worst postwar recession.

Prices excluding fresh food slid 1.1 percent from a year earlier after dropping 0.1 percent in the preceding two months, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. It was the sharpest decrease since comparable figures were first compiled in 1971.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said last week that price declines will accelerate through the middle of the fiscal year as demand slackens and crude oil continues to trade lower than last year’s record. Retailers including Aeon Co. are cutting prices to attract customers as falling wages and the worsening job outlook damp spending.

“Profits fall, then wages come down, then consumers stop shopping,” said Junko Nishioka, chief Japan economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “And because people aren’t shopping, companies lower prices. That’s the process that we’re starting to see. It isn’t easy to break out of.”

“With demand deteriorating, companies are finding it more difficult to sell goods and services and are turning to discounting,” said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas in Tokyo.

Some 47 percent of 775 Japanese retailers surveyed by the Nikkei newspaper plan to lower prices in the year ending March 2010 to spur sales, up from 9 percent a year earlier. Aeon, Japan’s second-largest retailer, this week started a discount campaign for confectionary, drinks and mayonnaise.

Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than half of the economy, may delay purchases if they expect goods to get cheaper. That would erode profits and force companies to cut wages, which have already slid for 11 months. Japan only escaped from a decade of deflation in 2005.

Japanese Deflation Deepens

As Japanese deflation deepens, Japanese Bonds Complete 2nd Weekly Gain.

Japan’s bonds gained for a second week as a government report showed consumer prices fell at a record pace, adding to signs deflation will hamper the economic recovery and boost the value of the fixed payments of debt.

Ten-year yields touched the lowest in almost three months after the statistics bureau said yesterday


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Zero Hedge

"We The Prisoners": The Demise Of The Fourth Amendment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Our carceral state banishes American citizens to a gray wasteland far beyond the promises and protections the government grants its other citizens… When the doors finally close and one finds oneself facing banishment to the carceral state—the years, the walls, the rules,...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Post-Brexit Bounce

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global post-Brexit selloff reversed itself today. Most Asia-Pacific indexes were modestly higher, and major European indexes saw major bounces. The FTSE rose 2.64%, the CAC 2.61% and the DAX 1.93%. The rally spilled over to US equities. Our benchmark S&P 500 opened at its 0.31% intraday low and spent much of the day in a narrow range just north of +1%. A second wave of buying in the final 90 minutes lifted the index to its close spot on its intraday 1.78% high. Can the rally continue? Stay tuned!

Treasuries, however, showed now reversal. The 10-year note closed at 1.46%, unchanged from the previous session. That's a mere 3 BPs above its all-time closing low of 1.43%.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

...

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Phil's Favorites

"No Cherry Picking" Says Merkel; Risk of Global Trade Collapse says Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel now sounds like socialist nannycrat Francois Hollande when it comes to punishing the UK.

The Financial Times reports Angela Merkel Takes Tough Stance on Brexit Negotiations.

In a speech to the Bundestag on Tuesday morning, Ms Merkel spelt out to London that the EU’s internal freedoms were indivisible — if Britain, like Norway, wanted access to the internal market then, like Norway, it would have to accept freedom of movement.

“We will ensure that the negotiations will not be run on the principle of cherry-picking,” the chancellor said, drawing applause. “We must and will make a palpabl...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

There's about to be huge upheaval in the financial world (Business Insider)

The UK has voted to leave the EU, and there is much still to be resolved.

Draghi Seen as Cure for Brexit Blues in Corporate-Bond Market (Bloomberg)

Investors are speculating that Brexit instability will cause theEuropean Central Bank to speed up corporate-bond purchases that began three weeks ago.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

London closer to breakout, than breakdown- Really???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

While the media is focused on the noise around Brexit, yesterday the Power of the Pattern shared that Germany (DAX) and London (FTSE) remained above 6-year rising support. See post HERE.

Below takes a closer look at the FTSE index in London, the so called center of the news noise.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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ValueWalk

Bill Gross on 'What'd You Miss'

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss'”>Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss’

Streamed live 5 hours ago
Today on ‘What’d You Miss,’ co-hosts Scarlet Fu & Alix Steel bring you live coverage of the market close and talk to Standard & Poor’s Chief Global Economist Paul Sheard about the G7 meeting. We’ll also bring you Erik Schatzker’s interview with Bill Gross, live from FI16 in Los Angeles (http://la.bbgfi16.com/). We’ll hear from the bond king on central bank policy and his outlook for global growth.

‘What’d You Miss’ with Alix Steel, Scarlet Fu, and Joe Weisenthal airs every weekday on Bloomberg TV from 4 – 5 pm ET:

The post ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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