Highlights: 83% successful trades & account up 6%!
July was another successful month for The Oxen Group. We saw our Oxen Picks account grow by over 6% due to numerous successful trades (15 out of 18, or 83!). In July, the market recoiled back from a stream of losses as tech and financials led the month. Playing the oil and energy ETFs was particularly profitable, as the energy market continues to be volatile. We are looking for the month of Augus for a defining month as we enter a post-recessionary market that will either continue to look forward or hit some bumps in the road. With the market being extremely overbought and overvalued, we may spend the beginning of the month somewhat sideways as investors await more big news and more bargains to present themselves.
Here are more more statistics from the month of July, trading my account:
Our account increased from 4481.77 to 4758.47 in month of July. That is an increase of 6.17%.
We had 15 positive trading days out of 18.
Six of 18 days gave us 3% gains or more.
We began a 3% stop loss policy. This was beneficial on two days when the stock we bought trailed below 3% from our entry price.
Our account has now moved up 58.62% in 86 days of trading or 4 months.
I came across this chart today, categorize it in the "for what its worth" department:
[Click on charts for larger view]
Let’s see how the above seasonality charts compare with my own SPX chart:
SPX – 120 minute
Counting eight bars from the right we can see the gap-up open to a new summer high in Thursday’s first bar. But look underneath at the Elliott Oscillator. Eight bars from the right is a major divergence, not even close to a new high for the move. If the S&P breaks below 985 Monday and stays below it, we get a trend sell signal that should carry at least 50 points lower. That would coincide with a break down of the trend regression channels with even more bearish implications.
Zooming out, here is the Weekly chart with Fibonacci levels and the False Bar Stochastic:
This is where the above seasonality chart is especially poignant. Prices have engaged the first major Fibonacci level of 38.2%. A turn down here, accompanied by a break down of the regression channels and another crossing of the FBS down below it’s signal line adds up to compelling evidence of a change of trend that could lead to the initiation of the next impulsive leg down.
If this analysis sounds familiar, it is because it has been hanging around these charts for the past six weeks. The consensus of the bulls is that we are in a new bull market, that the recession is over, or about to be over, that the government has pumped enough liquidity into the system to have saved the day and that the bear market is finished and its loyal adherents, especially those like me who say the worst is yet to come, just don’t have a clue.
Remember, in March, this bearish take was the view of the many. Today, August 1, it is the view of the few, as another piece of the puzzle falls into place.
All of this is predicatedupon a break below support on the above two-hour S&P chart.This has not yet occurred and unless and until it does, the trend is higher. [Ilene's emphasis]
That’s it for a Saturday in August. It’s 110 here in the desert and about time for a cold one.
Here’s an interesting article by Susan Blackmore. While there are parts of Susan’s article I might disagree with, the general idea opens up a whole new set of memes, for me – the third replicators. So, the first replicators are our genes. The second replicators are memes – ideas, the basis of cultural evolution. Using the machinery of the second replicators (human minds), we have have built the third replicators.
WE HUMANS have let loose something extraordinary on our planet – a third replicator – the consequences of which are unpredictable and possibly dangerous.
What do I mean by "third replicator"? …
About 4 billion years after the appearance of the first replicator, something extraordinary happened. Members of one species of lumbering robot began to imitate one another. Imitation is a kind of copying, and so a new evolutionary process was born. Instead of cellular chemistry copying the order of bases on DNA, a sociable species of bipedal ape began to use its big brain to copy gestures, sounds and other behaviours. This copying might not have been very accurate, but it was enough to start a new evolutionary process. Dawkins called the new replicators "memes". A living creature, once just a vehicle of the first replicator, was now the copying machinery for the next…
Memes are a new kind of information – behaviours rather than DNA – copied by a new kind of machinery – brains rather than chemicals inside cells. This is a new evolutionary process because all of the three critical stages – copying, varying and selection – are done by those brains. So does the same apply to new technology?
There is a new kind of information: electronically processed binary information rather than memes. There is also a new kind of copying machinery: computers and servers rather than brains. But are all three critical stages carried out by that machinery?
Machines now copy information to other machines without human intervention…
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Larry Summers both sidestepped questions on Obama’s intentions about taxes. Geithner said the White House was not ready to rule out a tax hike to lower the federal deficit; Summers said Obama’s proposed health care overhaul needs funding from somewhere.“
The Wall Street owned insurer Customer Asset Protection Company, known as Capco, may not be an off-shore company. But it sure operates like one of those Cayman Island based tax shelters president Barack Obama has targeted.
Capco is the mysterious company owned by WallStreet giants like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, banks like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, smaller brokerage firms, and Fidelity, the mutual fund giant. Years ago Capco moved from New York to Vermont, where state law enables it to operate without disclosing much about its finances.
It’s official address is 100 Bank Street, Suite 610, in Burlington, Vermont. But if you go there, you won’t find an office marked with the name Capco. Instead, you’ll find an office marked Marsh Captive Solutions, which is a division of Marsh & McClennen that administers captive insurance companies. A total of 185 business are run out of Suite 610.
This brings to mind the story Obama used to tell on the campaign trail about “the outrage of a building in the Cayman Islands that had over 12,000 business — businesses claim this building as their headquarters. And I’ve said before, either this is the largest building in the world or the largest tax scam in the world.”
So how big is Suite 610? We suspect it’s a small office with a bunch of secretary types and filing cabinets. The reason it houses so many companies is that these captive insurance companies are registered in Vermont to avoid tighter regulations in other states.
For those of you who missed it, today Capco was dragged out of the shadows by New York Times reporter Zach Kouwe. The company was formed to insure customer accounts above the $550,000 of SIPIC insurance. The idea was that customers didn’t need to worry about the insolvency of their broker because Capco was insuring it. But now Capco appears to be massively insolvent, facing a possible $11 billion in claims from the collapse of Lehman Brothers with only about $150 million with which to meet them. New York State regulators are worried, and the Wall Street owners could wind up having to pay the bill.
First, we have Corus, which reported a negative Tier 1 Ratio. That is, they are formally "in the hole" in terms of assets vs. liabilities. This is never supposed to happen – but it did, "Prompt Corrective Action" be damned.
Based on these adjustments, the Bank’s core capital ratio stood at negative 5.78% as of March 31, 2009. The Bank’s total risk based capital ratio as of March 31, 2009 stood at negative 5.52%. Both of these ratios result in the Bank being considered critically under-capitalized under regulatory prompt corrective action standards.
Yet Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) – a law, by the way, not a suggestion – has once again not been followed.
Finally, we have Colonial. I made a nice chunk of coin shorting and PUTting that turkey last year, when their CEO (and a lot of other people) said they were "very conservative." Uh huh. My read of their balance sheet said they were (like many other regional banks) massively over-exposed to condo construction loans in….. you guessed it…. Florida (which incidentally is what killed Corus.) Oops. But here’s the money quote on Colonial:
If the FDIC were to seize Colonial, it would be the sixth-largest seizure, by assets, in American history. Such a large failure could strain the bank safety net. Colonial has $20 billion in deposits, while the FDIC insurance fund has dropped below $15 billion. The FDIC wouldn’t have to cover every dime, but when Florida’s BankUnited, with $12.8 billion in assets, failed earlier this year, it cost regulators nearly $5 billion.
Add all three of these up and tell me what you think is going on?
These three are not small banks. They are significant regional institutions, unlike the tiny little banks that we hear about every Friday after the close of business.
Here’s the nut to the story above: When BankUnited was
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Today you’re hearing a lot about how stocks act historically during the month of September. It’s considered to be the worst month of the year in terms of average annual returns and it usually leads to a pickup in seasonal volatility.
My pal Jon Krinsky CMT, technical analyst at MKM Partners in New York, put the below S&P 500 chart out last night…
While September is historically a negative month, it’s really the back half that tends to see the selling, which continues into October. Below is the average yearly chart for the SPX over the last 30 years. As we can see, there actually tends to b...
Washington’s strategy in Iraq is in shambles, but not just because America’s spanker-in-chief is really a wimp at heart. The problem is far more generic. To wit, the geographic territory of Iraq is not a nation; it is an arbitrary series of lines on a map drawn 100 years ago by dandies in the foreign offices of two fading empires (the British and the French) - which lines encircled numerous tribes, ethnicities and religious confessions which had no interest in sharing a common state...
The S&P 500 opened fractionally higher and hit its 0.14% intraday high moments later. The 10 AM August Manufacturing Report came in stronger than expected, but an hour later, the index started a selloff that would send it to its -0.43% intraday low in the early afternoon. A modest rally trimmed the loss to -0.05% at the close.
The S&P 500 went nowhere today, but Treasuries stirred a bit. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.42%, up 7 bps from Friday's close.
Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.
Today's trading volume picked up after the pre-Labor Day doldrums but remains below its 50-day moving average.
For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recessio...
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Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Ticker: BWLD) shares are in positive territory in early-afternoon trading on Thursday, reversing earlier losses to stand up 0.50% on the session at $148.50 as of 12:15 pm ET. Options volume on the restaurant chain is running approximately three times the daily average level due to heavy put activity in the October expiry contracts. It looks like one or more traders are buying the Oct 140/145 put spread at a net premium of roughly $1.45 per contract. As of the time of this writing, the spread has traded approximately 3,000 times against very little open interest at either striking price. The put spread may be a hedge to protect a long stock position against a roughly 6% pullback in the price of the underlying through October expiration, or an outright bearish play anticipating a dip in BWLD shares in the next couple of months. The spread makes money at expiration if shares in BWLD decline 3.3% from the current price of $148.50 to breach the breakeven point...
Gradient Senior Analyst Nicholas Yee reports on six companies that are using a variety of techniques to shift pretax profits to lower-tax areas. Featured in this USA Today, article, the companies include CELG, ALTR, VMW, NVDA, LRCX, and SNPS.
Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.
Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely. From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.
First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices. Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment. Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer. For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...
I just wanted to be sure you saw this. There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.
If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.
Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.
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