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Archive for 2010

Why Contrary To Popular Opinion Gridlock Would Be A Catastrophe; Is Obama More Like Clinton Or Bush

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Some entertaining observations from BofA’s Ethan Harris, who describes in detail why there are 500 billion reasons why gridlock would cripple the economy, and asks whether Obama is (or should be) more like Clinton or Bush in dealing with the approaching deadlines that will result in the first openly negative GDP print as soon as Q3 (good luck justifying thoat 10% EPS growth when the economy is about to decline). And just to confirm how bad it is, Jan Hatzius chimes in to explain why the economy will face a nearly 2% point headwind from inventory liquidation and negative fiscal catch up (think Cash For Clunkers gone viral) nearly every quarter in the coming year.

Gridlock is not Goldilocks

With the election looming and huge decisions facing President Obama and the Congress, clearly politics will play a big role in the economic outlook. Republicans are likely to take over the House, while Democrats are likely to retain the Senate. The Iowa electronic market puts the probability of a Republican victory in the House at 74%, but only at 20% in the Senate. Some analysts argue that split government and gridlock in Washington is good for growth: it prevents the government from interfering further in the private sector. Others argue that a Republican victory is good because it means more business-friendly policies. The reality is a bit more complicated.

In the short term gridlock is very bad for the economy. If Democrats and Republicans can’t reach a compromise, there will be a major tax shock at the start of next year. Gridlock also means awkwardly drafted regulatory legislation adopted in the past two years will move forward without retroactive refitting.

Thus, in our view, the key to the economic outlook is not who wins, but whether the two parties can work together. Congressional Republicans will have to decide whether to block legislation with even small flaws or work to reach agreements. Presumably, a strong election result will make them less inclined to compromise.

We believe that the pressure to compromise will be greatest for President Obama. Both the Congress and the President Obama face declining popularity ratings (Chart 8), but rightly or wrongly the President is held accountable for the economy. As Table 2 shows, economic issues dominate all others. We’ve recalculated some economic models of elections


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On the Yen Intervention, plus: Bonus Question!

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

I have not seen a “hard” number for the amount of intervention by the BoJ on September 15th. The talk was that about Yen 2 trillion ($24b) was sold for dollars. My own checking around confirms this range of numbers. If anything, I think it could have been less than $20b. I would appreciate any better estimates if people have them.

$20b sounds like a big number. On 15/9 it was. The BoJ got a big bang for their buck. 2 big figures in a short time. The even better news was that the 85.5 level held for two whole days!

Phooey! $20b is chump change in the FX market. By way of comparison consider what the Swiss National Bank has done just this year. They increased Euro reserves by ~$75b worth in an effort to contain the rising CHF. The intervention failed miserably. The SNB threw in the towel. The EURCHF collapsed as soon as the “We Quit” sign went up. The Swiss intervened to the tune of nearly 20% of their annual GDP in this busted effort. The market ate them alive and made a fortune in the process.

I am not sure that comparing GDP and currency intervention leads to any firm conclusions. But it is worth noting that the Swiss economy is about a ½ trillion while the Japanese GDP is 5 trillion. Does that mean that the BoJ will be forced to intervene to the extent of $1T (20%) before they realize the effort is futile and they too throw in the towel? I think not. I think the threshold of pain on this is a much smaller number. My guess is that when/if intervention approaches $200b they will be forced to quit.

$200b is an amount that could be positioned by just the big hedge funds and market makers. The real significant supply would have to come from global reserve holders. Specs alone will not bust the BoJ. Real money movements could.

At some point in the not too distant future the following could happen:

The BoJ will advise the interbank players in Tokyo that they are willing to buy $5b against the Yen as public intervention.

The central banks of Brazil, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, (etc.) could all say, “Hey! That


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Takefuji, Third Largest Japanese Consumer Lender, Halted, To File Bankruptcy

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Takefuji Corp., the third largest Japanese consumer lender, was limit down on the Nikkei, and was subsequently halted, on reports the company is preparing to file bankruptcy as reported by Nikkei newspaper earlier. The news was also confirmed by the Jiji and Kyodo news agencies. According to Reuters, “Takefuji had 430 billion yen ($5.11 billion) in liabilities as of the end of June, the Nikkei business daily reported, adding that president Akira Kiyokawa would step down.” Apparently the reason is that according to Japanese “consumer protection” banks are limited to the paltry 20% they can charge for interest: “Japanese consumer lenders have been struggling to cope with regulations lowering the rates they can charge on loans as well as claims for reimbursement for past interest deemed illegally high by a court ruling in 2006. In June a new set of regulations cemented the interest rate ceiling at 20 percent, down from 29.2 percent, and limited the amount an individual can borrow.” Nonetheless, the filing will likely not be a major surprise as even Moody’s appears to have been on the case.

The company had $404.6 million of debts as of March [not sure how this confirm with the previous number which had the debt at about 1,000 times higher], the company said in July. Moody’s Investors Service in that month cut Takefuji’s credit rating to Ca, the second-lowest non- investment grade rating, citing its funding plans and borrowers’ claims for repayment of overcharged interest. Net income sank 32 percent to 6.3 billion yen in the three months ended June 30, from 9.3 billion yen a year earlier.

This should be a stark reminder of what happens to a financial industry which is faced with a deleveraging consumer class, coupled with an overzealous consumer protection regulator.

And just because every major media outlet in America appears to have gotten a memo to not mention the fact that America’s wholesale drecit unions, we will make sure that everyone remembers all too well on Monday morning, that about 10 times the debt of Takefuji just went bankrupt in our own country last week.





SEC Denies China's Dagong of Market Entry After U.S. Debt Downgrade

Courtesy of asiablues

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday denied the application by China’s largest credit rating firm--Dagone Global Credit Rating Co.--to become a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) in the U.S.

The SEC cited concern regarding cross boarder supervision since “It does not appear possible at this time for Dagong to comply with the record keeping, production, and examination requirements of the federal securities laws.”

Media report quoted an SEC official that Dagong is the first firm to be denied by the SEC since the regulations governing the application process went into effect in 2007.

Dagong’s claim to fame came with its first international sovereign ratings report released in July of this year. In the report, Dagone stripped the U.S. the AAA rating, while giving emerging economies like Brazil and China higher credit ratings than the US , the UK, and Japan. Those ratings widely contradict the ones assigned by the Big Three – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch.

Dagong, then followed up with some sharp criticism of its western counterparts, and a verbal clash with Harold “Terry” McGraw III, whose company owns Standard & Poor’s credit agency.

So, it is of no surprise that Dagong immediately issued an angry rebuff calling the SEC’s decision discriminatory against China and a barrier specifically set for Dagong. It also took it to a few octanes higher –citing China’s sovereignty and financial assets safety are at issue here. From People’s Daily Online:

“….the contention by U.S. authorities… amounts to bias against Chinese credit-rating agencies. Dagong will not accept the NRSRO status at the price of betraying national sovereignty….. Dagong will consider conducting activities at the right time to protect its rights, including seeking legal actions against the SEC.”

China Daily also cited Dagong statement that having China’s own say in credit rating in the United States is significant to safeguarding the security of China’s overseas financial assets. And Dagong aims to enter the U.S. market to protect China’s interests as the largest creditor there. As of July, China held $846.7 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys, according to official U.S. data.

Although Dagong’s ownership structure is not public information, the company works closely, and…
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SEC Denies China’s Dagong of Market Entry After U.S. Debt Downgrade

SEC Denies China’s Dagong of Market Entry After U.S. Debt Downgrade

Courtesy of asiablues at Zero Hedge

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday denied the application by China’s largest credit rating firm--Dagone Global Credit Rating Co.--to become a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) in the U.S.

The SEC cited concern regarding cross boarder supervision since “It does not appear possible at this time for Dagong to comply with the record keeping, production, and examination requirements of the federal securities laws."

Media report quoted an SEC official that Dagong is the first firm to be denied by the SEC since the regulations governing the application process went into effect in 2007.

Dagong’s claim to fame came with its first international sovereign ratings report released in July of this year. In the report, Dagone stripped the U.S. the AAA rating, while giving emerging economies like Brazil and China higher credit ratings than the US , the UK, and Japan. Those ratings widely contradict the ones assigned by the Big Three – Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch.

Dagong, then followed up with some sharp criticism of its western counterparts, and a verbal clash with Harold "Terry" McGraw III, whose company owns Standard & Poor’s credit agency.

So, it is of no surprise that Dagong immediately issued an angry rebuff calling the SEC’s decision discriminatory against China and a barrier specifically set for Dagong. It also took it to a few octanes higher –citing China’s sovereignty and financial assets safety are at issue here. From People’s Daily Online:

 
“….the contention by U.S. authorities… amounts to bias against Chinese credit-rating agencies. Dagong will not accept the NRSRO status at the price of betraying national sovereignty….. Dagong will consider conducting activities at the right time to protect its rights, including seeking legal actions against the SEC."

China Daily also cited Dagong statement that having China’s own say in credit rating in the United States is significant to safeguarding the security of China’s overseas financial assets. And Dagong aims to enter the U.S. market to protect China’s interests as the largest creditor there. As of July, China held $846.7 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys, according to official U.S. data. …
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China: Proudly Demolishing Buildings Before Completed In Pursuit Of The Glorious Housing Bubble Perpetual Engine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Ever wonder how China can endlessly generate goal-seeked GDP of precisely 8.00001% year after year? Or how it can constantly find use for the massive and ever-larger surplus of warehoused commodities? Simple – never stop building. Which, apparently means blowing up empty building before they are even finished and rebuilding them. Rinse. Repeat. After all gotta keep all those construction workers from rioting, and all those USD reserves redirected into Brazilian and OZ commodities, now that China is not really buying US debt anymore. China Hush has some stunning pictures confirming that in its search of the great home bubble perpetual engine, the politbureau comrades may have stumbled onto the bricks and mortar equivalent of Shangri La. In the meantime, more on the whole “controlled demolition thing” from China Hush.

As one of the most architectural productive country, China aggregates 2 billion m2 of new building area every year, consuming about 40% of the world’s concrete and steel. However, on the flip side of the new building fever, there lie the rubbles and remains of other “older” buildings: people tear down four-star hotels to build five-star ones and bulldoze newly developed construction sites before they are even finished. Lots of young strong buildings are down, fulfilling their unnatural destiny in the roaring noise of blasting. (Source from ifeng.com and people.com.cn)

 

1. Vienna Wood Community in Hefei City died before born on Dec. 10th, 2005. The community covered about 20,000 m2 construction area with the main structure raised to 58.5 m high. The tens of millions yuan worth building was blasted as a whole when its 16th floor was still under progress. According to local government, the community punctuated the central divide of Hefei City, blocking the scenery between Huangshan Road and Dashushan Mountain. They couldn’t straighten Huangshan Road unless the community was out of the way.

2. The Bund Community in Wuhan, 4 years old, blasted on March 30th, 2002. “I give you the Yangtze River” the slogan of the community captured many people’s hearts, so did its view over the magnificent Yangtze River and Wuhan’s historic spot Yellow Crane Tower. It took only 4 years to build the community that was documented and verified by relative departments. Then it also took only 4 years for…
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China: Proudly Demolishing Buildings Before Completed In Pursuit Of The Great Housing Bubble Perpetual Engine

China: Proudly Demolishing Buildings Before Completed In Pursuit Of The Glorious Housing Bubble Perpetual Engine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Ever wonder how China can endlessly generate goal-seeked GDP of precisely 8.00001% year after year? Or how it can constantly find use for the massive and ever-larger surplus of warehoused commodities? Simple – never stop building. Which, apparently means blowing up empty building before they are even finished and rebuilding them. Rinse. Repeat. After all gotta keep all those construction workers from rioting, and all those USD reserves redirected into Brazilian and OZ commodities, now that China is not really buying US debt anymore. China Hush has some stunning pictures confirming that in its search of the great home bubble perpetual engine, the politbureau comrades may have stumbled onto the bricks and mortar equivalent of Shangri La.

More from China Hush on the "unnatural" death of Chinese buildings.

As one of the most architectural productive country, China aggregates 2 billion m2 of new building area every year, consuming about 40% of the world’s concrete and steel. However, on the flip side of the new building fever, there lie the rubbles and remains of other “older” buildings: people tear down four-star hotels to build five-star ones and bulldoze newly developed construction sites before they are even finished. Lots of young strong buildings are down, fulfilling their unnatural destiny in the roaring noise of blasting. (Source from ifeng.com and people.com.cn

1. Vienna Wood Community in Hefei City died before born on Dec. 10th, 2005. The community covered about 20,000 m2 construction area with the main structure raised to 58.5 m high. The tens of millions yuan worth building was blasted as a whole when its 16th floor was still under progress. According to local government, the community punctuated the central divide of Hefei City, blocking the scenery between Huangshan Road and Dashushan Mountain. They couldn’t straighten Huangshan Road unless the community was out of the way.

2. The Bund Community in Wuhan, 4 years old, blasted on March 30th, 2002. “I give you the Yangtze River” the slogan of the community captured many people’s hearts, so did its view over the magnificent Yangtze River and Wuhan’s historic spot Yellow Crane Tower. It took only 4 years to build the community that was documented and verified by relative…
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Guest Post: Correlation Of Mortgage Rates With Real Housing Prices II

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Taylor Cottam of EconomyPolitics

Correlation of mortgage rates with real housing prices II

My last post Correlation of mortgage rates with real housing prices: how increasing inflation could affect housing prices, raised some questions. I didn’t have the chance to respond to them.

But before I do, let me go back to the original purpose of the article. I asked the question, “What could happen to real estate in the event of higher inflation?” If inflation shot up from 1% to 7%, what would happen to the real value of your home. My thesis was: you’re screwed. You will lose what little equity you have and real housing prices could drop by as high as 50%.

This was in contrast to the central thesis of the book Irrational Exuberance by Robert Shiller. His book included a chart which showed the relationship between home prices, population growth, building costs and interest rates. His chart seems to suggest that housing prices have little correlation to the interest rate. This chart was misleading and hides the real relationship between interest rates and housing prices.

Download Schiller Data.

Housing Prices against Population, Building Costs and Interest Rates

Once again, what is common to the man on the street seems to elude the academics, mainly, higher interest rates lead to lower affordability which in turn lead to lower housing prices. I looked at the same housing data as he did, but from a different perspective, mainly, the change in interest rates with the change of real housing prices. I looked at real vs nominal because there were periods of high inflation in the 70′s during which, looking at nominal inflation would give a very distorted picture. 

I also took an average of the three years forward because there is so much variability from year to year as to make the data difficult to interpret. The chart below tells a very convincing story. It doesn’t take a genius to spot a trend. What really got the people going was the mirror image of the nominal rate against the housing prices from . It was so evident some folks suggested I cherry picked the data. Hardly.

Change in Real Housing Prices (3 year forward average) against the nominal
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A Look At Global Economic Events In The Upcoming Week

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Goldman’s Thomas Stolper.  

Week in Review

Feeling QE-easy after all. The dovish statement from the FOMC meeting earlier in the week led to markets shifting closer to expectations of further QE moves by the Fed. Our US economists think a move in the November meeting is likely if the data continues to show weakness. The reaction in stocks to the FOMC statement were relatively muted, until better data (US durable goods) contributed to a sharp rally on Friday.

Broad Dollar weakness FX saw some of the biggest moves in reaction to the FOMC statement, with broad downward pressure on the Dollar. Most notably in EUR/$, almost touching 1.35 for the week. The EUR move occurred against the backdrop of weaker forward looking macro data (weaker flash PMIs and weaker German IFO expectations) and continued concerns over the European sovereign situation amidst large strikes in France and focus on Irish banks. We’ll get more potentially key events to watch for in the form of budget discussions in France (Sep 29) and Spain (Sep 30). Thoug we remain fundamentally constructive on the Eurozone outlook, the unsettled situation in the near term was part of the rationale behind our recently initiated short EUR/CHF tactical trade. We also reinitiated short MXN/CLP earlier in the week as we still continue to favour the theme of differential exposure to the US slowdown, amidst uncertain risk sentiment.

Week Ahead

Global PMIs and Decoupling We get the usual round of PMI readings from across the globe for the latest read on the global cyclical momentum as well as for further updates on the ‘decoupling’ thesis. China’s PMI reading will no doubt be in focus—we expect the September reading to continue to rise, as does consensus, which is looking for the PMI to rise to 52.8 in September from 51.7. Our China economists think that although production and electricity supply restrictions since early-September have put downward pressure on activity, this should be counter-balanced by the loosening in monetary, fiscal, and investment related policies since July. On the US ISM, we are expecting moderation to 54.0, below consensus of 54.5. More generally, firmer signs of decoupling will be supportive to risk sentiment and Dollar weakness overall, given that the risk vs USD correlations remain strong.

EM central bank meetings We’ll also get central bank meetings in Hungary, Israel, Russia, Poland …
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Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Courtesy of John Lounsbury writing at Credit Writedowns 

How far are we from a bottom in U.S. home prices?  There are many estimates that there could be another 10% or more for the national average and median prices to decline.  This author estimated that 2010 had a most probable decline around 11% from December 2009, with further declines possible in 2011.  Little decline has actually been seen as prices are quite near where they were nine months ago.  However, in the past couple of months predictions of further price declines have increased.  Two weeks ago I pointed out that the outlook for home prices may be degrading.

20% Price Decline to the Bottom?

Barry Ritholtz provides the following chart, originally from the New York Times, but updated for The Big Picture by Steve Barry.

For larger image, click on graph.

This decline is certainly within the possible limits I have discussed earlier in the year (see here and here) but the projection curve drawn by Steve Barry shows a much more gradual drop to the bottom than I have envisioned. I estimate that he is showing another 3.5 to 4 years to get 90% of the way there and 5-6 years to fully bottom out. My thinking has been that the drop to the final bottom will be much quicker, driven by the weight of foreclosures over the next one to two years.  However, current market conditions are causing me to reconsider.

Could Housing Go Below “Normal”?

What has not been considered by either Barry or me is the recurrence of another depression for housing, such as occurred from WW I to WW II. What sort of economic disaster would cause home prices to decline 55% to 60% from here? That is what would happen if the decline reproduced the 1920 bottom.

Or, asking a different question: What sort of economic disaster would result if home prices declined 55% to 60% from here? In such severe deflation, most mortgagors would default and every mortgage lender would be insolvent. There would be no future TARP or other shenanigan that could accommodate that eventuality.  This will be discussed further later in the article.

Under Water Mortgages

Calculated Risk has an excellent post about underwater mortgages. CR states that 4.1 million homeowners owe 50% or more than their house…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

Understanding the CFNAI Components

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and Income
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
  • Personal Consumption and Housing
  • Sales, Orders, and Inventories
The complete list is available here in PDF format.

In today's Chicago Fed update, we learned that two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from July, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in August. Personal Consumption and Housing cont...



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Zero Hedge

SEC Pays Unknown Foreign Whistleblower Record $30 Million Award

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Did someone finally inform the SEC that Bernie Madoff's business model has been adopted by every central bank in the "developed world?" Whatever the reason for today's record SEC award, which almost certainly has to do with HFT, a topic which this blog first brought to light back in 2009 when nobody had a clue what algo/high frequency trading is, congratulations to the lucky winner (unless of course it has to do with someone spilling the beans on US tax evaders in Swiss banks), and our condolences to the banks, because now that one can comfortably retire by informing the regulators of the pervasive crime that takes place within the US financial system on a daily basis, suddenly every disgruntle...



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Phil's Favorites

Thanks To Apple's Financial Geniuses, The iPhone 6 Isn't Just A Smartphone - It's A Magic Profit Machine

Thanks To Apple's Financial Geniuses, The iPhone 6 Isn't Just A Smartphone — It's A Magic Profit Machine

Courtesy of  of Business Insider

A realization is gradually setting in for Apple investors, customers, and devotees:

Apple has basically, quietly, raised the price of the new iPhone.

How?

By shipping the basic model iPhone 6 and 6 Plus with such limited memory that buying one would be like buying a Porsche with a VW Beetle engine.

As Apple guru John Gruber ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls leverage hopeful news to launch a tepid breakout attempt

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks were able to leverage some optimistic news and dovish words from the Fed to take another stab at an upside breakout attempt last week. Although readers have sometimes accused me of being a permabull, I am really a realist, and the reality is that the slogans like “The trend is your friend” and “Don’t fight the Fed” are truisms. And they have worked. Nevertheless, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback, especially given the weak technical condition of small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector ...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Wunderlich Lowers Price Target On American Eagle Energy Corp

Courtesy of Benzinga.

In a note issued Monday morning, Wunderlich Securities lowered its price target on American Eagle Energy Corp (NYSE: AMZG) from $15 to $13, while maintaining a Buy rating.

The firm commented, "We factored in a lower production forecast for the second half of 2014 and first half of 2015, a higher cost of borrowing, and higher debt load. As a result, we are lowering our NAV from $15 to $13 per share."

To highlight the lower production, Wunderlich noted the company is expecting production to peak earlier than expected in the fourth quarter and at a lower amount than previous forecast.

This change in production has caused Wunderlich to drastically lower its 2014 and 2015 EPS estimates from $0.30 and $0.44 to $0.06 and $0.14, respectively.

Lates...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest issue of Stock World Weekly. Enjoy! Please sign in using your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

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Option Review

IV Implodes On 4-hour YHOO Options As BABA Commences Trading

Investors are dumping shares in Yahoo, sending the stock down 5.0% to $40.08 after shares in Alibaba made their debut on the floor of the NYSE just before midday. Shares in BABA for their part initially traded up to a high of $99.70, a near 47% increase over the IPO price of $68.00. Typically, one would expect put options that are 5% out of the money with roughly 4-hours left to trade to see waning implied volatility. But, at the start of the trading session and ahead of the first trade for BABA, the Sep 19 ’14 40.0 strike put options were trading with 271% volatility or $0.30 per contract amid uncertainty as to how the start of trading for Alibaba would take shape.

...

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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Promotions

Last Chance! See The 'Google-Like' Trading Algorithm 'Live' TODAY

Traders and Investors,

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When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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