Courtesy of Doug Short.
The joyful mood of last week’s market is now history. The S&P plunged at the open, churned sideways until the final hour and then sold off in the final hour to close near its low, down 2.47%. On a brighter note, the index gained 10.77% for the month of October, which is the eighth best monthly close since the inception of the S&P 500 in March 1957.
On the other hand, the index slipped back into the red year-to-date, down 0.35% and is 8.09% below the interim high of April 29.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 85.3% above the March 2009 closing low and 19.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
