Weekly Market Recap Mar 24, 2019
by Chart School - March 24th, 2019 10:22 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
It was looking like another week of Federal Reserve Kool Aid and crushing bears .. until Friday. On the back of bad economic news out Europe, the yield curve inverted on the 3 month vs 10 year bond – before you fall asleep to that news, it is a quite important indicator for the economy (not necessarily the stock market… yet). More on that in a bit. As you can see the action in the bond market Friday was quite severe so it will be interesting to see the move in the coming few days.
As for the Federal Reserve:
The Federal Reserve signaled no more increase in interest rates this year and just one in 2020, according to its new ‘dot plot,’ and the bank said it would end its balance-sheet runoff by September. Before a marked shift in strategy in January, the central bank had previously indicated it would raise rates twice this year and once more in 2020. The central bank also cut its gross domestic product estimate for this year to 2.1% from 2.3% and trimmed its PCE inflation forecast to 1.8% from 1.9%, leaving its core PCE estimate at 2%.
During the press conference following the decision, Chairman Jerome Powell said patience means “no need to rush to judgment” and the new policy on the balance sheet will assure a “smooth” and “predictable” process.
“The markets saw the FOMC statement as being dovish — focusing on the dot plot and its reduction of projected interest-rate increases,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank.
About that yield curve inversion – an excellent article from Marketwatch:
The 3-month/10-year version that is the most reliable signal of future recession, according to researchers at the San Francisco Fed. Inversions of that spread have preceded each of the past seven recessions, including the 2007-2009 contraction, according to the Cleveland Fed. They say it’s offered only two false positives — an inversion in late 1966 and a “very
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Palladium Action Review
by Chart School - March 22nd, 2019 2:57 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Palladium is near its peak, or at least a consolidation. Russia and South Africa are the producers of palladium, and it looks like Putin has been able to play US Futures market for a lot of Russia gain! Which metal is next?
More from RTT Tv
The chart within the video
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..“What beat me was not having the brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.”..
Jesse Livermore
..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..
George Soros
..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..
Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”
[Contrarian Investing]
..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..
Philip Fisher
..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..
George Soros
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Silver is cheap vs Gold
by Chart School - March 21st, 2019 1:00 am
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once!
Chart up to April 2017
As of the 20th of March 2019 the US Federal Reserve has switched to dovish with monetary policy (more easy money) and metals (gold and silver) will be a first choice for long term investors.
Here is why silver is at a better value than gold. The gold and silver ratio with it is cycle in the chart below clearly shows silver is the better value buy. High gold and silver ratio means silver under valued.
Indicators are the readtheticker.com adaptive cycle and our RTTHurstDPO, more here.
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Silver long term channel chart
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
…“My satisfaction always came from beating the market, solving the puzzle. The money was the reward, but it was not the main reason I loved the market. The stock market is the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented – and it pays the biggest jackpot…it was
…
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RTT browsing latest..
by Chart School - March 19th, 2019 6:15 am
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.
Date Found: Thursday, 20 September 2018, 03:14:19 PM
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Comment: Money rushing into US only stocks IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN, as the informed money now have a uniformed buyer to sell too!
Date Found: Sunday, 23 September 2018, 03:02:29 PM
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Comment: Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy Boom and bust youtu.be/5C43i3yclec
Date Found: Sunday, 23 September 2018, 03:47:43 PM
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Comment: Identifying the Building Blocks of the Next Financial Crisis youtu.be/Gc0Z5hp5h74
Date Found: Sunday, 23 September 2018, 03:58:58 PM
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Comment: JIM ROGERS – 18 Sep 2018 – Washington Is The Big Market Risk Right Now! This how you get rich! youtu.be/6UxzOJ8eJcY
Date Found: Monday, 24 September 2018, 08:25:58 PM
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Comment: TRADING LEGENDS – Anton Kreil’s Interview with Ben Berggreen youtu.be/KRUlMz2lsqA
Date Found: Wednesday, 26 September 2018, 04:29:15 PM
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Comment: Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd: My Dire Forecast For Financial Markets | CNBC 40% pullback in stocks youtu.be/GKOWTB3zKTE
Date Found: Saturday, 29 September 2018, 01:34:17 PM
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Comment: Are the FAANG stocks about to collapse under their own weight? – MarketWatch
Date Found: Sunday, 30 September 2018, 11:19:40 PM
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Comment: Algos Have Taken the Rhythm Out of the Market | Stanley F. Druckenmiller… youtu.be/ukH6RloCWzI
Date Found: Tuesday, 02 October 2018, 03:00:20 PM
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Weekly Market Recap Mar 17, 2019
by Chart School - March 18th, 2019 10:24 am
Courtesy of Blain.
A very good week for market bulls as the prior week’s selling was all reversed. Last week we asked how many times can we rally on the same Federal Reserve juice. It seems indefinitely. Jerome Powell went on ’60 Minutes’ and talked dovish – that sparked a big rally Monday and it continued all week. The only down day all week was Thursday when the progress on the U.S. – China trade deal seemed to hit a delay.
A meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will be delayed until at least April, Bloomberg News reported, indicating that a bilateral trade deal will not be finalized this month. The news comes after Trump told reporters in the White House on Wednesday that he was in no rush to strike a trade agreement.
For the week, the S&P 500 added 2.9% and the NASDAQ rocketed 3.8%.
There had been a massive reversal a week ago Friday in the Chinese market, but it held in pretty well this week after a big move up. This is an interesting chart to watch as all signs point to a slowdown in their economy but their central regulators are trying to juice the system as well.
Investors digested comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Beijing’s No. 2 leader after President Xi Jinping, who expressed optimism that a trade deal between China and the U.S. can be achieved that suits both parties. Li also addressed weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and pledged to maintain strong stimulus measures, such as lowering interest rates, cutting bank reserve ratios, and slashing taxes for consumers and businesses.
Here is the 5 day weekly intraday chart of the S&P 500 … not via Jill Mislinski.
The week ahead…
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting hits March 19-20 – nothing but cheering for markets going up and more “patience” expected.
“The Fed is on pause and we don’t expect any major change to Fed Policy next week,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist…
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Wyckoff Price Thrust Measure
by Chart School - March 14th, 2019 4:25 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Richard Wyckoff said in his last days as an educator,’follow the waves’. And an important measure of those waves is the ‘thrust’. The thrust of price into new ground, considering price and volume support or lack of it. The price wave thrust is clear visual presentation of the composite man demand or supply characteristics: strong, mild, weak or confused.
readtheticker.com favored trend tool named RTTTrendStatus sister indicator RTTTrendThrust shows off Wykcoff measure of price thrust. RTTTrendThrust can be used to assist mechanical trading systems (like lower time frame Stochastic(10,3,3) on higher time frame Stochastic(10,3,3)).
A video to explain in more detail.
Here are the demo charts in the video
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A wider view
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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net
Investing Quote…
..”Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year”..
Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..
John Templeton
..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..
Warren Buffett
..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..
Mark Twain
..”Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets”…
Stan Druckenmiller
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RTT browsing latest..
by Chart School - March 13th, 2019 8:10 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.
Date Found: Friday, 31 August 2018, 04:37:11 AM
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Comment: FACE Interview July 26th 2018 $SPX David Builds the Bear Case for an Oct 2018 crash youtu.be/Y0B9taUh2rk
Date Found: Friday, 31 August 2018, 11:41:23 PM
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Comment: WOW
Date Found: Sunday, 02 September 2018, 01:51:10 AM
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Comment: WOW
Date Found: Monday, 03 September 2018, 05:55:15 PM
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Comment: Dave Skarica: Strong Dollar Will Continue Crushing Emerging Markets youtu.be/zsBEk-bjzCM
Date Found: Monday, 03 September 2018, 07:00:26 PM
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Comment: Warming Up!
Date Found: Tuesday, 04 September 2018, 08:26:37 PM
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Comment: CNN Money: Jim Rickards on Russia’s Gold Reserves – August 26, 2018 youtu.be/TXcLQWfe5x4 Bitcoin will be state payments, litecoin will be people payments, no one will trust government crypto
Date Found: Wednesday, 05 September 2018, 04:28:03 PM
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Comment: This Is It for Silver | David Morgan Bottom is in, on the recent spike youtu.be/XWsdiNF6F-s
Date Found: Friday, 07 September 2018, 11:43:46 PM
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Comment: David Rosenberg US Wage growth accelerates to a nine-year high but the clue for more pick-up comes from the quit rate — it soared to an 18-year high. Fed ain’t done.
Date Found: Saturday, 08 September 2018, 10:38:16 PM
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Comment: Australian housing market – property Bubble & Banks, 2018 Insights youtu.be/0lrdxpKPocY…
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Weekly Market Recap Mar 10, 2019
by Chart School - March 11th, 2019 1:13 am
Courtesy of Blain.
The non stop rally of 2019 finally hit some road blocks this past week. The utter glee of a potential China-U.S. trade deal wasn’t enough for the market to rally on the same old news for yet another week; it has essentially rallied on that news for nearly a month. “Patience” still makes everyone happy – but a dismal employment report Friday, the European Central Bank talking about more stimulus, along with horrid export data out of China had people a tad worried.
The ECB announced new measures to support a slowing economy, including a round of long-term loans to European financial institutions, while issuing a surprise pledge to hold off on any interest-rate increases until at least the end of the year.
China reported a 20% drop in February exports after a 9.1% gain in January. Officials blamed the plunge on sagging demand and some distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday. But economists said that even if those two months are added together, the data looked weak.
As we have been saying for about 6 months (lead by housing) it does seem the economic data is starting to get more sluggish and one wonders when the market sees that as a negative vs a positive i.e. the Fed will push up stock prices if we slow. Looking out 2 years it does appear we are about to get hit with another flood of liquidity from central banks!
An avalanche of economic news this week – some of the highlights:
The Beige Book’s showed 10 of the central bank’s 12 districts seeing “slight-to-moderate” growth in late January and February. The partial government resulted in slower activity in about half of the districts, affecting a range of sectors, including retail, auto sales, real estate, restaurants, and manufacturing, according to the central bank.
“Trade wars are easy” and such….
The annual U.S. trade deficit soared to a 10-year high in 2018 of $621 billion, the Commerce Department said. The deficit jumped nearly 19% in December to
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Gold Chart Feast
by Chart School - March 10th, 2019 5:26 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker.
If the central economic planners (CEP) lose control and the fiat monetary balance is broken, where do you hide!
In the most recent years the pendulum as held firm on the side of the CEPs and central bank put (Greenspan Put, Bernanke Put, Yellen Put, Powell Put [just]) was (and is) a real thing.
Now in 2019, after being sold the story the easy monetary policy can end and return to normal. The current Fed Chairman Powell even suggested this would see the US 10 yr bond near 4% while they sold down the $4T FED balance sheet at $5OBN a month, while suggesting the US economy would not even notice.
Well 2019 is not even half done, and the CEPs have arrived at their Little Big Horn moment and fell like General Custer. Things started to go wrong around the US 10 yr bond 3.25% mark, and this followed with a plunge of 20% in the SP500. Now CEPs are back to injecting monetary juice into the markets. Proof the new normal of never ending monetary stimulus can never be unwound.
Little Big Horn is marked where an arrogant and ambitious plan fell apart.
Will the CEPs monetary power ever fail? If it does what happens to Bob the Builder, Stacy the Hair Dresser, and Joe the Plumber. Us!
Well it seems those who are informed are putting the money where their mouths are. Billionaires who can afford the best research like Stan Druckemmiller, Sam Zell, David Einhorn, Ray Dalio and John Paulson have begun to hedge themselves against the CEPs failure to maintain power over inflated and fragile asset prices by investing in hard assets. Maybe masses should do so as well.
Below are some of readtheticker.com favorite gold charts.
Gold with the big parallel channels.
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Gold with RTT_HurstDPO Cycle
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Gold with Gann Angles.
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Two things the CEPs have ruined the middle class with: Globalisation and monetary debasement. Protect…
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Weekly Market Recap Mar 3, 2019
by Chart School - March 3rd, 2019 10:22 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
A quiet week for the market, which is exactly what the bulls want – low volatility and little in the way of pullbacks as the indexes consolidate a few months of big gains. Monday thru Thursday saw very little movement, and the week ended with a moderate rally Friday. Powell testified to Congress and essentially whispered “patience” repeatedly and away we go – we’ve been in “Fed is on our side” mode for a few months now.
The housing market continues to slow:
The number of new homes under construction fell in December to an annual rate of 1.08 million, from 1.21 million rate in November, the Commerce Department said. That is the lowest level since 2016.
Pending home sales jumped 4.6% to a reading of 103.2 in January, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales were 2.3% lower than a year ago, making January the 13th straight month of year-over-year declines.
Looking back at GDP:
The Commerce Department’s estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth showed the U.S. economy growing at a rate of 2.6%, well above consensus expectations of 1.9%, per a MarketWatch poll of economists. GDP grew at 2.9% during 2018, according to the preliminary estimates by the Commerce Department, representing the best growth in three years. However, market participants highlighted the economic reports highlight expansion that is tapering from heady levels of a 4.2% growth rate in the second quarter of 2018.
ISM Manufacturing fell to 54.2 vs expectations of 55.5. That is still expansionary as it is over 50.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the NASDAQ added 0.9%.
I would say the trade deal with China is happening based on the front running happening in the Chinese market which was hurt much worse than the U.S. ever was.
Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.
The week ahead…
Fun info – since “patience” the S&P 500 has rallied >20% and the NASDAQ >25%.…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site