Author Archive for Chart School

History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

history-rhymes-with-the-dowThe next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.



More from RTT Tv



Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market.

8) Emerging markets.

To name a few.


In the past it was look away, nothing to see here. Well things change, nothing stays the same, such is life.











The point of our video this week: To bet on a massive change in volatility is most likely the easiest bet of all.



Charts in video: 



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Dow1




Will we get spurts of volatility like the above (either up or down), or all at once like below. 



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Dow2







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Successful tape reading is a study of force. It requires the ability to judge which side has the greatest of pulling power and one must have the courage to go with that side”..



Richard D Wyckoff





…”I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second”..



Paul Tudor Jones





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett











Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter financial conditions which could dampen growth going forward and equity markets are reacting to that.”

Yields on the 10 year fell back to their “breakout” level late in the week.

The Chinese market’s “reversal” was stunted by the selling in U.S. markets – now back to new recent lows.

It was such a rough week even gold got a bid as a “safe haven”.

This selloff in housing stocks continues unabated. Rising mortgage rates and high prices seem to be working together to hurt the sector.

One would think the selling would knock off some of the most speculative stocks but “market leader” Tilray (TLRY) held in amazingly well.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 4.1% while the NASDAQ sunk 3.7%.

Economic news was not market moving.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Markets look quite oversold short term and the start of earnings season may turn attention back to underlying fundamentals.  The bears have constantly been crushed during this bull market run so let’s see if this is yet another case of that.   Retail sales will also be reported.

Third quarter earnings will be a major driver as companies


continue reading





No Bids In This Market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

no-bids-in-this-marketMarket Warning Oct 2018!





More RTT Tv



Over the years markets change, but in the end liquidity is liquidity, if you do not have it, markets move like a penny stock. We are all penny stocks now!



Clown1










Clown2





Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets. However, the lay man may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and phonographs are based”…



William D Gann





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





…”The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different’ “…



John Templeton





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











SP500 sell off well forecast by President Trump

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-sell-off-well-forecast-by-president-trumpTRUMP said ‘we may have to take a hit!. No kidding, with stocks at extreme all time highs, add on the trade wars and you are surely to upset the worlds demand engine (i.e China). Of course you can not change anything with out breaking a few conventions, therefore investors can not be blind to changes in asset prices as president Trump made his intentions very clear.

An investor must understand how the markets work, we know algo’s work the intra-day market to the upside and after the SP500 95 pt sell off today it looks like they work to the down side. Plus Mr Market wants to find out the level of Powell ‘fed put’ is. Is it like Mrs Yellen at -10% ? Or is much lower. The things we are about to learn!

Maybe the SP500 sell off is the Democrats move against the US president, as he has owned the 2018 rally? If it is President Trump warned all investors on June 4th 2018

..”I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain so we might lose a little of it but we’re going to have a much stronger country when we’re finished, and that’s what I’m all about.”..

Knock on effects of a SP500 sell off greater than -12% are: 

1) Pensions risk.
2) The debt on share buy backs risk.
3) US Govt tax receipts via capital gains risk.
4) Allows a transfer of funds from stocks to bonds.
5) Will quantitative tightening turn into quantitative easing?

Now for those over 40 years of age, (like the author), you know this market is just ‘Nuts’ and exponential upwards markets always (not some, but all) end the same way.

Like the soldiers at Bastogne during WW2 the only way Mr Market can be rescued is by General ‘Fed’ Powell’s QE4 (a maybe). 

A reminder, remember Bitcoins exponential rally: $5000, $10,000, $15,000 on its way to $100,000. It too succumbed to market laws and a +50% correction followed. Folks this is normal. Individual stocks may retrace +50%, but do not worry the central planners will do all they can to slow down and limit leading indexes corrections. 

Below we have…
continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Oct 7, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Certainly the chart of the week was not in the stock market but the bond market.  The yield on 10 year bonds surged over recent highs, which rattled the indexes late in the week; in fact these are levels not seen since 2011.

“Yields spiking up this week have caught many by surprise and some repricing is happening; however, the reason yields are rising are positive, not negative,” said Jamie Cox, a managing partner at Harris Financial Group, who argued that higher yields are a result of a strong economy.

In other news TRADE WARS(tm)!! with Canada seemed to have come to an end which bolstered the market Monday.

The Chinese market was closed for holiday last week but let’s see if it can continue this reversal which would indicate “those in the know” are seeing a trade deal being done…

Oil remained strong:

Housing stocks do not appear to like those rising interest rates!

For the week the S&P 500 fell 1.0% while the NASDAQ sunk 3.2%.

Economic news of interest: (1) ISM Manufacturing came in at a very strong 59.8 Monday, a tad bit below expectation, (2) ISM Services rose to 61.6 which was the 2nd highest reading on record!

The big one was of course (3) the employment report for the month of September:

The economy created a modest 134,000 new jobs in September, but it was enough to push the U.S. unemployment rate down to a 49 year low of 3.7%.   The last time the jobless rate was lower was in December 1969.  Economists had expected a gain of 168,000 nonfarm jobs. The average hourly wage paid to American workers rose 0.3% to $27.24 an hour.   Employment gains for August and July were revised up by a combined 87,000. The government said 270,000 new jobs were created in August instead of 201,000. July’s gain was raised to 165,000 from 147,000.

“Overall, a strong report that will keep the Fed firmly on


continue reading





Bond Market, Houston we have a problem!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bond-market-houston-we-have-a-problemA bond bear market approaches, asset classes around the world will react.



Low interest rate world is coming to an end, it has to, however the period of change will not be plain sailing. 










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Bond vs stocks










Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“Losing money is the least of my troubles.  A loss never troubles me after I take it.  I forget it overnight.  But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.”…



Jesse Livermore





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





..”it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…



Bernard Burach





..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..



Spike Milligan











RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Friday, 27 April 2018, 09:15:30 PM

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Comment: Alan Newman: US Stock Markets in Topping Process Now, Followed By a 50% correction youtu.be/1hXBXJy_eic

Date Found: Saturday, 28 April 2018, 01:27:53 AM

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Comment: Ha ha ha !

Date Found: Saturday, 28 April 2018, 02:12:33 PM

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Comment: Very True…

Date Found: Sunday, 29 April 2018, 10:00:56 PM

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Comment: So higher $USD means down pressure on OIL, Oil $70 may be top for a while.

Date Found: Monday, 30 April 2018, 09:09:41 PM

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Comment: These Charts Show Why Bitcoin Is Headed To The Moon | CNBC RTT: Moon better not move! youtu.be/q5ZfPTgf7FQ

Date Found: Friday, 04 May 2018, 12:18:45 AM

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Comment: “Incestuous” Monetary Policy vs Jay Powell’s Credibility RTT” Jes wayne stop the honesty youtu.be/EtJqi0XczEk

Date Found: Friday, 04 May 2018, 09:23:06 PM

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Comment: Spooky, if so inflation is upon us! (Hat tip Raoul Paul)

Date Found: Tuesday, 08 May 2018, 03:39:52 PM

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Comment: Steve Keen – FINANCIAL CRISIS, TRUMP 2018-2019, CRASH IS NOW RTT Economic lessons from history are the best. youtu.be/DyrDbmuhfH4

Date Found: Wednesday, 09 May 2018, 03:47:27 PM

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Comment: Michael Pento – Super Spike In Precious Metals Coming RTT I am scared sh*tless!

Date Found: Thursday, 10 May 2018, 06:43:48 PM

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continue reading





No Weekly Recap this Week

Courtesy of Blain.

We will be back next week, see you then!

For some quality reading in the meantime, see our top education articles or view our recap archives.





Gold Gann Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-gann-updateThe latest swing down is testing a long time 1×1 Gann angle. 

Should we expect lower prices?

Or is this swing lower being used to accumulate at better prices by the large accounts. As always we find out how strong the bull hands are when support is tested. It is very obvious the gold price is range bound, and those who follow gold also know big moves higher mostly only arrive after the shorts have had a chance to clear (options positions and short futures).

There are those who say higher interest rates and the USD is bearish for gold, it some cases this so, but it is not automatic relationship as gold can and does rise (or at least hold its ground) with the USD, more so when the market knows higher interest rates will most likely explode the debt bomb. A corporate and sovereign debt bomb is what we have, and it is now widely reported the US annual interest rate expense will overtake US medicare costs. WOW! 

Mr Market does not treat the weak hands well, GLD could test $100 or the test could be over at $110. Retail traders react to price action, retail traders need to wait for confirmed strength to ensure higher price are going to follow. But we do know the ponzi buy back stock market music will stop, and that sir is why gold is still above $1000 once ($100 on GLD).

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
GOld


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Sep 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More saber rattling between China and the U.S. did little to distract the market.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his hard-line stance on China during a news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and said the U.S. had “no choice” but to levy another $267 billion in duties on China. That would come on top of announced tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods announced late Monday.  China responded with tariffs of 5% to 10% on $60 billion worth of U.S. products that will take effect Sept. 24, and said it may introduce more measures if the U.S. goes ahead with higher tariffs.

This seems to be the prevailing thought process, hence after the initial hang wringing Wall Street doesn’t seem too concerned anymore:

“In my opinion, I see President Trump as trying to force the trading partners to the bargaining table to renegotiate trade deals that have long favored other countries over the U.S. His methods are unconventional but the U.S. economy is strong, earnings are healthy and confidence among consumers and investors remains high,” wrote Robert Pavlik, chief investment strategist at SlateStone Wealth, in a note to clients.

“We could be near peak political trade rhetoric, but without any visible effect on economic data, investors are just looking through the noise. We’re essentially still in a negotiation phase, and until we have set policies that we can evaluate, markets will continue to ignore this to a certain extent,” said Matt Forester, chief investment officer of BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors.

Interesting reversal this week in the Chinese market – especially late in the week.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 0.9% while the NASDAQ fell 0.3%.  This is the TENTH gain the last TWELVE weeks for the S&P 500!

The star of the week was the Dow Jones Industrial Average:  +2.3% move for the week; quite interesting action for a sector exposed to TRADE WARS(tm)! (makes you think behind the scenes people in the know are very…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

China Rescue Fails To Save EU, US Markets - Banks, Builders, & Bud Stocks Battered

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

What did China do...

Of course, everyone is talking about Chinese stocks - CHINEXT is up 10% in two days... if you fall for this manipulated idiocy, you deserve all you get. This was the biggest 2-day jump since the rescue of Chinese stocks after August 2015's devaluation crashed stocks...

...



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Phil's Favorites

SUDDENLY...

 

SUDDENLY…

Courtesy of 

The environment has been changing but it’s only really become part of the investor consciousness within the last two weeks: Suddenly, cash has a cost. Money isn’t free. Not every business model makes sense. Not every hurdle for investment is sitting an inch or so off the ground.

It’s this normalization of interest rates which, despite it being in effect for three years now, that has all of a sudden gotten some attention.

The yield on a 10-year Treasury now stands above 3%, and se...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Downgrades A Fleet Of Freight Stocks

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related UNP 8 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 22, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows.

Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why it’s time for investors to pay closer attention. In the chart below, we compare today’s setup to 2000 and 2007 and the market crashes that followed.  Note, though, that we have NOT broken trend support yet.

Similar to today, in 2000 and 2007 the S&P 500 made a...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.

More from RTT Tv

Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market....



more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

 

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

Five people died and more than 200 got sick during a 2018 E. coli outbreak, the largest in more than a decade. The bacteria was traced to contaminated romaine lettuce. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

In the wake of this year’s large E. coli outbreak, Walmart notified its leafy green suppliers that they must be using blockchain technology to trace their products before the end of 2019.

Walmart, one of the world’s largest retailers, has be...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



more from ValueWalk

Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

more from Our Members

Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>