Author Archive for Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them.  Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.




The Dow sell-off didn’t stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.






Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly undone by a bearish engulfing pattern to follow on from the ‘tweezer top’.  Next up is the 50-day MA. The sharp underperformance relative to the Nasdaq 100 is also weighing on the index.





The damage in the Semiconductors hasn’t yet spread to the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 but the outlook for their breakouts is not good. However, for now, their respective breakouts are intact. The only damage done was a fresh ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD.





The Russell 2000 also got hit with a MACD trigger ‘sell’ but 20-day and 50-day MAs are available to play as support.





For tomorrow, eyes should be on the Semiconductor Index. The Dow is effectively range trading and not that interesting but the Semiconductor Index was looking to challenge highs with Tech Indices hitting new all-time highs. Should the former fail then the chance for ‘bull traps’ in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 become significantly higher. Aggressive traders could look to play for a reversal in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Small Caps Add To Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Good news for momentum traders as the Russell 2000 continued its good run. The Russell 200 will start to get hot when it gets into the 15% profit take zone at 1,732 – a zone last seen tested in December 2016; if we are looking at February 2011 levels (the 5% historic zone) then the Russell 2000 would be tagging 1,813. Start taking profits, or sell covered calls, when we get into these levels.






The S&P reversed off resistance in early June and hasn’t yet mounted a challenge to break it – today’s gain off its 20-day MA ended in a disappointing doji with bearish technicals for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and -DI/+DI feeding into the weak relative performance.





The Dow Jones had been offering shorts a play off the ‘bull trap’; it’s a scrappy one as prices are back inside the prior channel.  The 200-day MA is an area where taking profits would seem prudent (aside from significant bullish reversal candlestick). Technicals, with the exception of Stochastics are all bearish.





The Nasdaq gapped higher but didn’t advance beyond the initial opening strength. However, it was enough to register as a new all-time high and all technicals are in good shape. The Russell 2000 is the better momentum play but the Nasdaq has the more attractive risk:reward given its proximity to support.





For tomorrow, eyes will be on market leading Russell 2000. If gains hold it will likely drive money into the more attractive Tech averages breaking to new highs. Large Caps are caught between two ferns and could go either way. 




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Bitcoin Update – Testing support on cycle low

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-update--testing-support-on-cycle-lowDue to popular demand, bitcoin review.



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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Without specific, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not have any real chance of success”..



Jesse Livermore





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner





…”I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second”..



Paul Tudor Jones





..”Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic… There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”…



Paul Tudor Jones





..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..



Warren Buffett











Bulls Look To Make a Stand

Courtesy of Declan.

It’s looking a little early for some of the nascent pullbacks but buyers are stepping in here to support markets. Much of this looks to be driven by the secular bull market leader, Russell 2000. It managed a new closing high as momentum traders continue to benefit from strength in this index.






The index in the best position to offer a trade tomorrow is the Semiconductor Index. Today offered a solid doji just above support. The ‘tweezer top’ is a concern as this pattern is typically a strong reversal signal so cautious buyers may instead prefer to wait until this is negated – but then the risk:reward becomes much broader. Technicals are a mix of bullish and bearish, although tie-deciding relative performance is on bears side (vs Tech indices).





Tech indices have benefited with the Nasdaq 100 offering a breakout opportunity of its own; this a second chance for a bite of the momentum cherry. Technicals are also a little stronger than the Semiconductor Index.





The Nasdaq is a little further along in its push to new highs but it’s a momentum play alternative if you don’t like the Nasdaq 100.





The S&P is also playing for a bounce opportunity with the 20-day MA acting as a support level. It may be not as attractive as other indices but it’s a more cautious play. Technicals are okay despite relative underperformance.





For tomorrow, there are different grades of long plays: momentum plays in Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100, pullback plays in Semiconductor Index and S&P and a momentum hold for the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jun 17, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

After two weeks of rallies, the S&P 500 mostly consolidated this week – except for Friday the action was very reminiscent of 2017 with almost no volatility at all intraday and modest gains or sideways action.  Friday was the wrench in the mix, with a gap down to open the day but buyers came in during the afternoon and in the end the markets had a week to digest prior gains.  Friday’s action was due to TRADE WARS(tm)!

President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese goods, marking the latest escalation in the trade spat between the two countries. Beijing has said it intends to assess tariffs on a corresponding amount of U.S. goods, while Trump said the U.S. would pursue more tariffs if China retaliates. Subsequently, Trump said there was no trade war with China.

The Federal Reserve did what it had telegraphed what it would do:

The Federal Reserve voted to raise its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. Eight of 15 Fed officials now expect at least four rate hikes will be needed this year, up from seven at the March meeting.

The Fed’s dot plot, a projection by the members of the central bank’s expectations for rates in the future, shows the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee penciling in two additional rate increases in 2018 for a total of four increases in the year. That is up from expectations from three in the March Fed rate estimates.

More interesting this week was the European Central Bank which Thursday left interest rates unchanged and laid out plans to taper its program of monthly bond purchases later this year. The central bank is aiming to bring them to a halt by the end of 2018.   There was no “taper tantrum” by markets, as we saw in the Bernanke era.

“The ECB did a pretty good job telegraphing what it’s planning to do. [ECB President


continue reading





Decision Time for Dow and Semiconductor Index

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls have done a good job of clawing back the losses generated by the individual days of selling which have peppered the market since April’s lows.




The S&P had reversed from the point of the March high in what looked to be a good shorting opportunity but the lack of follow-through leaves this play vulnerable to a swift exit. A short-stop at 2,792 is the best protective play but further highs are looking more likely.






The two indices which have the most to offer are the Dow and the Semiconductor Index.




The Dow Jones is a play for Longs. It has tagged breakout support and now offers a chance for pullback buyers to take a long position. Further losses will open up a shorting opportunity and a potential ‘bull trap’ but another day of losses is needed for this.





The Semiconductor Index has the potential to head in the other direction. There is a mini-tweezer top just below the recent swing high in what could be a potential double top. Adding to the potential bearish tone are sell ‘triggers’ for the MACD and CCI.  The main argument against the short play is the overall bullishness of the market as a whole. This is an against the tide play.





There wasn’t a whole lot to report for other indices. Holding on to existing long plays is perhaps the best course of action if not looking at either of the aforementioned opportunities.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Bulls Maintain Form

Courtesy of Declan.

Another day, another day of gains. Nothing significant but enough to keep rallies and recent breakouts intact. There are few trading opportunities – except to hold on to existing positions.




The S&P has a potential shorting opportunity at March swing high resistance but given the breakouts in Tech and Small Caps, I’m not entirely convinced by it. Technicals are net bullish except for relative performance which has been in decline since March.






The Nasdaq closed at new highs – negating the June ‘bear trap’. Relative performance is good too which favours a continuation of the rally.





The Nasdaq 100 also returned to its breakout – following the lead of the Nasdaq. Relative performance against the Russell 2000 is also improving.





The Semiconductor Index is looking to challenge the March ‘bull trap’. It’s coming under a bit of pressure with a ‘sell’ in CCI and a drop in relative performance against the Nasdaq 100. There may be a short play here if it gets closer to 1,440.





The Russell 2000 is tagging the 10% band above its 200-day MA. While this is not ‘profit take’ territory it does show the strength of the rally. Unlike Tech averages, Small Caps have started to slowly roll over in the relative performance stakes.





For tomorrow, consolidation/hold/do nothing is the preferred play. Shorts could look to attack the S&P and maybe the Semiconductor Index. Those longs who have no position could look to buy the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 breakouts but the whipsaw risk is high.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Sunday, 04 February 2018, 10:53:56 PM

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Comment: McSquared – The Coming War between Trump & The Fed

Date Found: Monday, 05 February 2018, 11:19:42 AM

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Comment: Most of the countries in the TOP 5 have massive social welfare programs, so the lazy love this vote.

Date Found: Friday, 09 February 2018, 12:16:46 PM

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Comment: Interesting

Date Found: Friday, 09 February 2018, 12:17:03 PM

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Comment: Ouch!

Date Found: Friday, 09 February 2018, 10:55:02 PM

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Comment: Greater US deficit means lower dollar and inflation (BOA forecast)

Date Found: Saturday, 10 February 2018, 01:48:09 PM

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Comment: ITS TIME!

Date Found: Saturday, 10 February 2018, 01:48:56 PM

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Comment: MID MARCH GOLD YUAN CONTRACT STARTS, COULD THIS BE BREAK OUT TIME!

Date Found: Tuesday, 13 February 2018, 12:28:12 AM

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Comment: This NOT risk control

Date Found: Saturday, 17 February 2018, 11:41:26 AM

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Comment: Makes sense!!

Date Found: Wednesday, 21 February 2018, 02:07:22 PM

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Comment: Silver, held under the CREEK (resistance), waiting for it to jump over!

Date Found: Wednesday, 21 February 2018, 06:17:49 PM

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Comment: A recent survey from the University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment at 99.9 in February, up from 95.7 in January and considerably higher than consensus…
continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jun 10, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Last week was much like the ones we saw throughout 2017!  Up, up, up nice and slow…. with little volatility.   And new record highs.  Market news was quiet in general despite “global trade tensions”.   Really ….it was difficult to find much market moving news!  (Insert crickets chirping hee)

For the week the S&P 500 closed up 1.6% while the NASDAQ added 1.2%.  Some catch up from the S&P 500 after lagging the NASDAQ of late.

In economic data, U.S. factory orders fell by 0.8% in April, driven by a decline in commercial aircraft.  Tuesday, ISM services surged to 58.6 in May from 56.8 – any reading over 50 signals expansion and this one is near 60!  The U.S. trade deficit shrank 2.1% in April—before the Trump tariffs took effect—and tumbled to a seven-month low. But the gap is still on track to widen in 2018 to the highest level in a decade.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

Elon Musk has launched a company to build tunnels underground.  He is selling flamethrowers at $500 a pop to help fund said company.   The first 1000 were sold last weekend.  This is a real story.  Seriously.

The devices, technically called “Not a Flamethrower” to skirt federal shipping regulations, shoot a two-foot flame.

The company had a good week even aside from that, surging 9.7% Wednesday, after Chief Executive Elon Musk told shareholders that the electric-car maker was “quite likely” to meet its production goal of 5,000 Model 3 cars a week.

The week ahead…

President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un will meet in Singapore on June 12; on the same day, the Federal Reserve will kick off its two day policy meeting. On Wednesday, the Fed has essentially telegraphed a rate hike to investors.  The ECB is expected on Thursday to outline its plan for eventually winding down its purchase of monthly…
continue reading





Strong Finish To Week

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets feeling the pressure of Thursday”s selling recovered to maintain recent breakouts. For example, the Nasdaq 100 made it back to breakout support after briefly undercutting this level on Thursday. Technicals are all bullish and the index remains well placed for further gains.






The Dow Jones Industrial Average also benefitted by staying clear of its narrow rising channel.  The index looks set to shape a new right-hand-side base with 25,800 its next challenge.





The Russell 2000 is well above breakout support and approaching a level which is 10% above its 200-day MA (when it gets above 12% it will be in profit take territory). Technicals are all positive.





The Semiconductor Index was another index to make it back to breakout support, despite a ‘sell’ trigger in CCI.- it was the only index to show technical weakness.





The ratio relationship between Discretionary and Staples accelerated to new highs as markets feel out a new resistance area; so far, bulls have full control.





Likewise, supporters of Dow Theory will be pleased to see the channel breakout in the ratio between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow hold on as it looks to reverse its 3.5-year decline.





For Monday, look for further consolidation of gains as markets adjust to last week’s breakouts. Bulls have an easier time as there is no obvious short-side setup. Holding on an existing long play is perhaps the most prudent course of action.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

QOTD: Grantham says Oil is Dead

 

QOTD: Grantham says Oil is Dead

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Jeremy Grantham (GMO) is one of the most admired institutional investors and thinkers in the world, and with good reason. He is also a passionate environmentalist who has put himself at risk of arrest for taking part in various civil disobedience demonstrations and protests over the years. The 79 year old investor gave the keynote presentation at last week’s Morningstar Investment Conference and he chose to make the case for why ESG [environmental, social and governance] inv...



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Despite 'Recovery', Millennials Face Future Of Less Wealth, More Work, Worse Health

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While many baby boomers and those of older generations have experienced rising "wealth and prosperity" as a result of this most recent "recovery" that has taken place over the last decade, there has been an age group that has not reaped such benefits, but will yet be stuck with the residual damage that comes with a Keynesian recovery in the years to come: millenials. Bloomberg recently reported as suc...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Collapse Resumes After Japan's Largest Exchange Halts Account Creation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

What started off as a hopeful week of broadening user adoption is ending on a sour note as Japan's chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt account creation sending the entire crypto space lower...

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Insider Scoop

Booking Holdings Is Playing Catch-Up In Online Travel Growth Areas, Analyst Says In Downgrade

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Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For June 22, 2018 Booking Holdings CEO Has Some Winning Travel Tips For ...

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Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them.  Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.

The Dow sell-off didn't stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.


Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly ...

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Biotech

Opioids don't have to be addictive - the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opioids don't have to be addictive – the new versions will treat pain without triggering pleasure

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Tao Che, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill

The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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