Author Archive for Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlikely to deliver any notable wins to help expand his agenda. Therefore, Trump will likely focus on his broad executive powers to affect trade and national security,” wrote Dec Mullarkey, managing director, investment strategy, Sun Life Investment Management, in a research note.

We are still seeing quite a bout of volatility – usually rallies that will last will settle into some sort of “calm” so we are not there yet.   In fact the move to the upside got so extreme mid week that the NYSE McClellan Oscillator actually went to overbought levels for the first time since spring (more on that below).

Nothing of note from the Federal Reserve Thursday – exactly as expected:

In a statement that was largely intact from its September meeting, the Fed said, “The Committee expects further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate.” It also said the risks to the economic outlook “appear roughly balanced” and noted that inflation remains near its 2% target.

The absence of any major changes to its commentary suggests that the central bank plans to raise interest rates in December and plans three hikes next year, in line with market expectations.

Massive drop in oil the past…
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Elliot Wave within Wyckoff Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

elliot-wave-within-wyckoff-logicThis is for all those Elliot wavers out their who can not make a buck!





More from RTT Tv



Elliot wavers who introduce volume and the study of demand of supply by the ‘whales’ in the market should improve their odds of wining.















Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe.”…



William D Gann





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.



Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher





..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..



Warren Buffett











Weekly Market Recap Nov 4, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Words rarely spoken the past few years:  “The market was due for a bounce back after some intense selling.”  Modest selloffs Monday and Friday bookmarked 1%+ rallies Tue-Thu on the S&P 500.  It’s not so much the rally during a selloff to examine as the action after the rally.   So we should have a good amount of information at this time next week – bears have been so used to rallies just continuing straight up the past half decade plus so we’ll see if there is a change in nature.  Aside from fixing some technical damage bulls would want to see a significant drop in volatility.

October once again struck as one of the trickiest months on the calendar for markets:  The S&P 500 shed 6.9% for its biggest monthly decline since September 2011, while the NASDAQ dropped 9.2% in October for the biggest fall since November 2008.

(Far) across the pond, we mentioned the bullish “outside reversal” day a few weeks ago in the Chinese market – despite the selling in U.S. markets this reversal held up and the Chinese market looks like it has put in a short term bottom at least!

For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.4% while the NASDAQ added 2.7%.

In economic news, Monday the government announced consumer spending rose 0.4% in September, matching forecasts. Incomes rose a smaller 0.2%, the smallest rise in 13 months.

Thursday, ISM Manufacturing fell to a six month low of 57.7 vs economists’ expectations of 58.7.  Still a very strong number.

Friday, the government reported job gains of 250,000 in October, beating economists’ expectations for payrolls to rise by 202,000. The unemployment rate remained flat at 3.7%, while the report showed year-over-year wage gains rising to 3.1%, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3%.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Earnings season is slowing down but still some heavy…
continue reading





Fangs Stocks Change Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

fangs-stocks-change-reviewChange comes to every thing, the oxygen we breath slowly ages all human cells, and some how it is a big surprise change has come to the FANG stocks.

In the charts below the FANG stocks (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG) are compared to the benchmark XLU (utility stocks) in readtheticker.com sector rotation chart. Utility stocks are nice and safe and slow. An excellent control set against the aggressive FANG stocks.

Here is the picture just before the volatility of 2018. The rock stars are in control of the majors trends.  All FANG stocks are judged as very strong compared to the benchmark (XLU).


Sector Rotation readtheticker
 

Now after the recent pre 2018 mid term sell off. The picture shows FANG stocks still a strong, but strength compared to the benchmark XLU is rapidly evaporating. Time to buy during a moment of weakness, or a time to adjust portfolios? The readtheticker.com asset rotation chart helps you to watch asset class rotation. 


Sector rotation readtheticker


Investing Quotes…

…"The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching."…

Jesse Livermore

…"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different' "…

John Templeton

..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”

Robert G Allen

…“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”…

Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Tuesday, 22 May 2018, 05:00:05 AM

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Comment: This indicator in early May turned negative – signaling an upcoming global earnings recession. Yet at the time, the mainstream completely ignored this – if they even followed this indicator in the first place.

Date Found: Tuesday, 22 May 2018, 04:09:23 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Comment: Finally, the SMART money just started dumping its stocks again…MORE selling into the close

Date Found: Saturday, 26 May 2018, 04:24:50 AM

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Comment: AI: The Greatest Job Disruptor in History Now! RTT: Yeah Right!, just like EMAIL removed A4 paper, Ai will do the Sh*t jobs only, cause they can not vote! youtu.be/hDO1OR3WWaQ

Date Found: Sunday, 27 May 2018, 02:41:10 AM

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Comment: CATHERINE AUSTIN FITTS BLACK BUDGET BITCOIN & MIND CONTROL! DARK JOURNALIST Bitcoin a Central bank operation, speculate for as long as they need the coders to scale up for World wide use, clever bankers youtu.be/ULkXEmMqgzs

Date Found: Monday, 28 May 2018, 06:25:31 PM

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Comment: Danielle DiMartino Booth: How and why central banks need to normalize youtu.be/Np-9MOAl8QY

Date Found: Wednesday, 30 May 2018, 12:45:45 AM

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Comment: Got gold

Date Found: Friday, 01 June 2018, 03:52:28 AM

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Comment: Interesting

Date Found: Saturday, 02 June 2018, 03:06:24 PM

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Comment: Correlation is NOT causation, BUT is it??? Sherlock

Date Found: Saturday, 02 June 2018, 03:24:58 PM

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Comment: Suggests Dow could…
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Weekly Market Recap Oct 28, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Market action continues to be weak and real damage has been done technically.  Selling Wednesday and Friday was particularly harsh, with an oversold rally in between.  But the “buy every dip and make bears cry” mindset seems to have disappeared for the moment.

“We’ve had this massive shift in sentiment in recent months from ‘the market can do no wrong,’ to ‘the market can do no right,’” said Amanda Agati, co-chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group.

The triple overhang of trade uncertainty, Fed rate increases, and slowing global growth are “causing investors to jump on any bad news, or even just mediocre news, to punish stocks,” Lance James, senior portfolio manager at RBC Global Asset Management, told MarketWatch.

While some of the most dramatic rallies can happen within the context of a correction, those with a short to intermediate term view still would be wise to view the near term with caution. And for the first time in a long time there is some cautionary tales out there even on the long term charts.

(Far) across the pond, please note the Chinese market did not hit a new low and the “outside reversal” day to the upside we noted last week is still holding sway.  That said if things get ugly from here, that could fall away quickly.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 3.9% while the NASDAQ fell 3.8%.  The S&P 500 is now down for the year while the NASDAQ is still up 3.8%.

Sales of newly constructed homes swooned to the lowest since December 2016.  The charts of the housings stocks have been telling us about this slowdown well in advance!

The Fed’s Beige Book showed that wages and prices are rising in the central bank’s 12 districts but not faster than a “modest to moderate” pace and that the economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace.  Still, the Fed’s account of the business atmosphere helped to reinforce the view for…
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Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

kitchin-cycle-warned-of-market-volatilityHere are some names of cycle masters: Kondratieff, Dewey, Kitchin, to name just a few. Cycles are in all matters of life, including the SP500.

From Wiki

..”Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British businessman and statistician. Analyzing American and English interest rates and other data, Kitchin found evidence for a short business cycle of about 40 months.[1] His publications led to other business cycle theories by later economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff, Simon Kuznets, and Joseph Schumpeter”..

If you are a regular stock market watcher, you will notice during cycle up swings the media, bloggers, tweets are all positive and talk about the next 50% upward move, and during cycle down swings it is the exact opposite, doom and gloom and a crash is near. Some call this a measure ‘sentiment’, and determining when the market changes in sentiment is the basis of creating wealth. 

The news breaking now is : 
- Amazon earnings profit jump, but shares slump
- Caterpillar stock falls as warning of peak earnings
- 3M peak earnings

Great earnings, but stock slide, this is cycle ending type news. The massive story behind these news headlines is the US economy is changing back to pre-globalism. This is US producers switching from foreign commodities and parts to local sources. For example Ford, switched from Chinese steel to US steel, and will suffer the increase costs. The cost will be pushed on to consumers, resulting in inflation.

This is the US economy changing from a low cost external sourced raw material to a more internal higher cost sourced economy. In short this is transferring GDP from out side the US to inside the US, this will result in more local jobs and eventually inflation. This is the TRUMP plan which is better for main street, not so good for (1) Wall street, (2) those foreign sources who relied on the US demand engine and (3) the massive debt financing the globalism model.

The debt in emerging markets and China is growing in riskier every day. This fundamental change in the massive US demand model has yet to be played out in equity markets fully. 

The Kitchin Cycle suggest the unwinding of the leverage behind Globalism to American First policy…
continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Oct 21, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

After the heavy selling the week prior there was sure to be an oversold bounce and indeed last Tuesday brought much of that.  It is always interesting to see what happens after that bounce – often in this bull market, once the indexes turn back up they move like a freight train.  This time – thus far at least – the action has been less aggressive.  Selling on Thursday took the S&P 500 right back down to the 200 day moving average and rally attempts Friday were fruitless.  In whole the S&P 500 barely budged for the week.

Yields on the 10 year have thus far held their own “breakout” level:

The Chinese market had an interesting Friday with an “outside reversal” day to the upside – that is a day where the price went both below the low of the prior day, as well as the high.  This happened the day after the index notched a new 4 year low.  This week’s action in that country’s market will be a tad interesting to watch.

China’s GDP grew 6.5% between July and September from the same quarter a year earlier, down slightly from 6.7% growth in the previous quarter and falling short of analysts’ expectations of 6.6% growth. However, the disappointing results were shaken off after officials said they were focused on supporting the stock market.

Yet a new low in these home builder stocks – one wonders if they are telegraphing an end to the housing boom.  Existing-home sales fell 3.4% in August, the lowest level since November 2015.

“Recent sluggishness seems increasingly driven by softer demand from would-be home buyers in the face of two emerging trends: falling rents and rising mortgage interest rates,” said Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas. “It all adds up to a situation in which supply-side factors are becoming less critical in driving home sales as they give way to softening demand. There’s still a lot of energy left in the housing market, but the


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History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

history-rhymes-with-the-dowThe next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.

More from RTT Tv

Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market.

8) Emerging markets.

To name a few.


In the past it was look away, nothing to see here. Well things change, nothing stays the same, such is life.

 


 

The point of our video this week: To bet on a massive change in volatility is most likely the easiest bet of all.

Charts in video: 


Dow1


Will we get spurts of volatility like the above (either up or down), or all at once like below. 
 

Dow2
 

 





Weekly Market Recap Oct 14, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday and Thursday finally brought some fireworks to a very complacent market.   The S&P 500 had not had a 1% move in 74 days until Wednesday’s drawdown.

Rising yields were nailed as the culprit but months of rallying eventually require some sort of shake out – whatever the catalyst.  Wednesday’s sell off was the worst day for the S&P 500 since February and the worst for the NASDAQ since June 2016.

The market losses are “a reaction from investors finally realizing we are in a higher interest-rate environment, and given the elevated level of stocks, market participants were likely looking for a reason to sell,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. “Higher interest rates typically bring on tighter financial conditions which could dampen growth going forward and equity markets are reacting to that.”

Yields on the 10 year fell back to their “breakout” level late in the week.

The Chinese market’s “reversal” was stunted by the selling in U.S. markets – now back to new recent lows.

It was such a rough week even gold got a bid as a “safe haven”.

This selloff in housing stocks continues unabated. Rising mortgage rates and high prices seem to be working together to hurt the sector.

One would think the selling would knock off some of the most speculative stocks but “market leader” Tilray (TLRY) held in amazingly well.

For the week the S&P 500 fell 4.1% while the NASDAQ sunk 3.7%.

Economic news was not market moving.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Markets look quite oversold short term and the start of earnings season may turn attention back to underlying fundamentals.  The bears have constantly been crushed during this bull market run so let’s see if this is yet another case of that.   Retail sales will also be reported.

Third quarter earnings will be a major driver as companies


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Phil's Favorites

Theresa May's deal is almost exactly the Brexit the UK voted for

 

Theresa May’s deal is almost exactly the Brexit the UK voted for

Courtesy of Craig Berry, Manchester Metropolitan University

Forgive me, I may have missed something. There has of course been a lot to take in over the last few days. But, despite what the latest former Brexit secretary believes, it seems to me that the Brexit withdrawal agreement delivers almost exactly what the UK voted for in June 2016.

The reasons 17.4m people voted to leave the EU were mu...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar Creating A Topping Pattern This Week?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar has spent the majority of the past 7-years inside of rising channel (1), as it’s created a series of higher lows and higher highs.

The 2018 rally has it kissing the underside of potential resistance this week at (2), where it could be creating a bearish reversal pattern. This one week action has NOT changed the upward trend in King Dollar.

If it breaks rising support at (3), odds favor that some selling pressure takes place in the US$, which metals would lov...



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Zero Hedge

IMF Sounds The Alarm On Leveraged Lending

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Five months after the IMF sounded the alarm over junk bonds, it has now moved on to the credit market bogeyman du jour and overnight joined others such as the Fed, BIS, Oaktree, JPMorgan, and Guggenheim in "sounding the alarm on leveraged loans."

By Tobias Adrian, ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Cautious On Williams-Sonoma After Q3 Print

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WSM 48 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session 28 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlik...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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