Author Archive for Chart School

Who is King? The Bond Market or the FED

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

who-is-king-the-bond-market-or-the-fedThe King Arthur story is battle between a false KING and the true KING. Generally the movie involves surprises, love and violence, and all this coming to the risk on markets very soon. 

The financial blog space expects the FED to do some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to hold interest rates down while inflation moves higher, this is allowing inflation to run hot. The FED wishes to do this over time to deflate the debt away. Very similar to the 1940′s post WW2, yields were pegged to 2% and risk on assets went sky high.

However Peter Boockvar suggest the FED may soon learn it is not in control and the true king of the markets is the BOND MARKET. Peter says simply the bond market is telling the FED to bite me!

The FED is not used to taking second fiddle to any challenger, and you can bet the FED will not give up the chair of market king easily, and they will try to smash the bond market into submission with forms YCC, TWIST and more QE.

Of course if the FED fails, all markets will be repriced to the new cost of money and you can bet the market violence will be spectacular.

The pressure of future inflation agrees with current bullish up swing in the cycle below. (Cycle tools are in readtheticker.com)

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BOND 1

Long term cycles, bullish for higher interest rates, inflation, commodities. Notice the 1940′s period and how flat interest rates were, and what happened in the 1950′s and after.

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BOND 2

The US debt percent of GDP now is much higher than 1940′s, the chart below is only the Federal or Government debt, if you add on corporate and household, just double the yAxis percentage numbers. Currently the US interest expense is nearly equal to the US military budget.

debt

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a

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The Fastest Money

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

the-fastest-moneyThe fast money happens near the end of the long trend.

Securities which attract a popular following by both the public and professionals investors tend to repeat the same sentiment over their bull phase. The chart below is the map of said sentiment.
 

Curve trend
 

Video on the subject.


 

Charts in the video


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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann AnglesCyclesWyckoff and
Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

 

Investing Quotes:

"Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion."
Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it."
Warren Buffett

After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history."
Charlie Munger

"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
George Soros

“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope.”
Bernard Baruch
 





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:46:16 PM

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Comment:
Low liquidity means price can MOVE fast either way!

Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:52:11 PM

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Comment:
if you have 100% of life savings in stocks alone, please adjust for a crash landing.

Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 09:25:52 PM

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Comment:
This a lagging, indicator.. SP500 news highs will change the red line!

Date Found: Wednesday, 02 September 2020, 11:35:38 PM

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Comment:
it’s not looking good for the #USD Could the #Euro break 1.30?

Date Found: Saturday, 05 September 2020, 11:29:42 PM

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Comment:
Navigate The Markets Last Leg Up Before The BIG CRASH | David Hunter youtu.be/oN3csMowowM

Date Found: Monday, 07 September 2020, 06:42:55 PM

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Comment:
Bitcoin 2020 (purple).. warming up!

Date Found: Saturday, 12 September 2020, 08:37:28 PM

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Comment:
The Great Depression Of The 2020′s youtu.be/bFV05jKuakA

Date Found: Saturday, 12 September 2020, 10:35:44 PM

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Comment:
ALERT! China & the “Silver Knights” to Attack Silver Riggers Next Week?!… youtu.be/-EvwUBoRbuM

Date Found: Wednesday, 16 September 2020, 02:05:40 AM

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Comment:
WOW More FANG gains to go!

Date Found: Wednesday, 16 September 2020, 02:28:20 AM

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Comment:
Luke Gromen (Dollar Hegemony…
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Which to trade? Fundamentals or Technicals

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

which-to-trade--fundamentals-or-technicalsBest to trade technical’s, best to trade fundamentals, best to trade technical’s, etc.

Consider Paul Tudor Jones quote below.

..”Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic. There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”…

In short, markets start with macro but in the end they are more like a ponzi. 

Which is best to trade fundamentals or technical’s?

The answer is both and with different weights at different stages of the market, in the early part of the market fundamentals will have more weight, but as the market matures fundamentals must be balanced with the technical’s. Because a market involves humans, and fear are greed are at work, more so when prices are extreme.

To demonstrate the above listen to this very good fundamental chat on Ethereum. 

At the 41.40 min mark Raoul Pal answers the question as to a possible price forecast of Ethereum, he says:

..”nobody can think is exponential terms, humans are incapable of this”…

So there you have it after 40 minutes fundamental chat, price is determined by humans in a free market environment of greed (demand) and fear (supply). Technical’s are used to measure lows and extremes of greed and fear, just like the price channels below:

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ETH

But in the end even Ponzi met reality.

…”The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game”…

Basketball Legend Michael Jordan

The only thing in mania markets is a minute can be weeks, months or years.

 

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch

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Price channels on Ethereum

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

price-channels-on-ethereumSupport and resistance levels are critical, yet finding them is an art and not a science, channels are one of our favorite tools to do this, and once found they can show blue skies for higher prices.

Previous post: Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Since computers came on the scene there has been an explosion of algorithms and all sorts of fancy widgets and gadgets to read price and volume action.

Readtheticker.com is old school and we base our primary chart reading on the theories of Wyckoff, Evans, Gann, Ney and Hurst. In all these theories support and resistance determination is critical, and parallel price channels drawn off A-B-C points which find true price support and resistance levels completes the task.

Below are two charts, standard price chart and a log price chart with parallel price channels, to show the important contrast.

Note: RTT Plus members can view the private members chart book of price channels on all major indexes, currency and crypto’s.

Chart 1- Standard.

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ETH 1

Chart 2- Log with channels.

You can see how price moves between channel lines. If you had known the A-B-C channel drawing points early forecasting price via support and resistance would be a breeze. Please note the A-B-C drawing points need not be extreme price points, they are the price points which generate the best channel fit to price.

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ETH 2

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load
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Gold Gann Angle Update – Classic continuation setup

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

gold-gann-angle-update--classic-continuation-setupGold has a classic continuation pattern set up, but of course every one can see it, so the trickery around the break out to higher prices will wear out some weak hands.

The continuation pattern (bull flag) is also at major all time high resistance, in Wyckoff language you can call this a ‘spring board’ as it is the final work done by the composite man before higher prices are achieved. Expect prices to move higher very quickly, so the retail trader wont be able to build any position of size. This blog target is $2500 on gold futures price.

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Gold

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..“The only way you get a real education in the market is to invest cash, track your trade, and study your mistakes…. The examination of a losing trade is tortuous but necessary to ensure that it will not happen again.”..

Jesse Livermore

…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…

Charles August Lindbergh Snr

..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..

Mark Twain

..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..

Spike Milligan

..”To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate…,


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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

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Comment:
This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!

Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment:
Nasdaq losing momentum.

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 01:52:04 AM

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Comment:
SentimenTrader: High is near!

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 06:19:50 AM

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Comment:
Global-Real-M1-vs.-MSCI-World-Total-Return. So we have 10 month for markets to crash!

Date Found: Sunday, 12 July 2020, 10:26:20 PM

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Comment:
Buyback crashing in 2020, who gonna buy if the FED does not do all the heavy lifting!

Date Found: Friday, 24 July 2020, 11:19:33 PM

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Comment:
Another swing down…

Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:14:56 PM

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Comment:
Inflation.. (after a delfationary bust) for 2020s

Date Found: Saturday, 01 August 2020, 08:24:28 PM

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Comment:
Crypto rally into early 2021 ..

Date Found: Sunday, 02 August 2020, 08:23:10 AM

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Comment:
Get ready. 71% of the government debt issued this past year matures in less than 12 months. Treasury Bills’ outstanding shot up to $5 trillion! No way around this… The Fed’s balance is set to explode.

Date Found: Monday, 17 August 2020, 05:36:30 AM

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Comment:
Motley Fool Live: Danielle DiMartino Booth…
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Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

why-did-selling-sp500-volatility-trades-blow-upMany have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and ‘this time was different’ worked, until it didn’t.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D until the cycle ended at blue D.

The point is if you play the selling volatility game, know thy cycle. Cycles matter!. The dominate cycles below gave you plenty of time to go to side lines when risk became apparent. 

NOW >>What is interesting is gray E, VIX is above 20, and the red cycle is rising with the blue cycle is pending a swing up which suggest we are in a pending crisis moment (deflation shock). 

IDEA: Have cycles studies in you investing plans, mix them with sentiment and market fundamentals.

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VIX

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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…”The average chart reader is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and


continue reading





Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

best-wyckoff-accumulation-for-2020Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!





Introduction …



Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.












Charts in the video …





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ETH 1




PnF …



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ETH 2




Divider







Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…



Richard D. Wyckoff





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…



Martin Zweig





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











Bitcoin Road Runner

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

bitcoin-road-runner2021 kicks off so does Bitcoin with great haste, finally all that FED COVID easy money created months ago is finding its way into risk on asset prices. The big bitcoin channel show us the road ahead.





The 2017 rally had two 12 week pauses (see below), we may not get that this time, maybe only one pause at $42,000 to $50,000 and then a charge to $100,000.





Finding and using the correct support and resistance channels on prices is critical (using Wyckoff thinking), in RTT Plus we have a library of channels on securities for members to review.





Log BTC Chart



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BTC2








As you can see from the bigger channels price targets are huge, but $50,000 will be a major challenge.





Log BTC Chart





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BTC1








Divider







Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“What beat me was not having the brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..



Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

 [Contrarian Investing]











..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett





..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..



Bernard Baruch





..“The key to successful investing is having everyone agree with you — LATER.”..



Jim Grant











 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The day the growth trade topped

 

The day the growth trade topped

Courtesy of 

One of the myriad ways you can spot a veteran investor amid a crowd of new or inexperienced investors – the veteran doesn’t need a reason to explain everything that’s happened. Veterans, after ten or twenty years, come to accept the randomness inherent in the game. Until you can accept that there isn’t always a reason for everything, it’s hard to move forward in this business.

Sometimes psychology just changes and sellers become in the mood to buy, or buyers get in the mood to sell. The media takes note of this shift in behavior and attitudes, and it sets out to find a reason for ...



more from Ilene

ValueWalk

9 Tech Trends That Might Just Change The World

By Luke Fitzpatrick. Originally published at ValueWalk.

A lot can happen in a decade. Just take a look at how different life is today compared to 2010. Smartphones and automated technologies have made our lives much easier in a lot of ways, while the new age of constant connectivity has altered the way we work, shop, and relate to one another.

Far from slowing down, the pace of progress is getting faster all the time. Some of the new technologies on the horizon are prone to change the world as we know it. Here are 9 tech trends to keep an eye on this year.

1. Augmented human’s

Like the smartphones in our pockets, humanity itself is going to get an upgrade. If the rapid rise of wearable technology is anything to go by, it’s...



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Zero Hedge

Afternoon Wood: ARK Founder Says "Carnage" Coming In Energy & Finance, "Optimistic" About Tech Names

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Cathie Wood made the first appearance in her Monday media tour when she took to CNBC at 3PM eastern to talk about the tech rout, which has crushed numerous ARK ETFs. ARKK was plumbing new lows when the conversation started with "the woman who has captured the attention of Wall Street", as CNBC's Wilfred Frost introduced her.

About The Sell Off

When asked how concerned she was about the market, Wood did not attribute the tech pullback to rates rising. "We've been struck that the market never priced in 0.5%, 1% or 1.5% interest rates," she said. "Over time markets have used a normalized 3% to 5%, and we don't think that's why the market is correcting." ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

China Creates Back To Back Bearish Patterns At 6-Year Resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could China be sending an important message to stocks around the world? Very possible!

This chart looks at the Shangai Index on a monthly basis since the early 2000s.

The index has peaked twice in the past 6-yeas at its 50% Fibonacci retracement level. These peaks took place in 2015 and 2017 and were followed by declines of at least 25%.

The past two months it has tested this 6-year resistance line/50% Fibonacci level, where it created back-to-back monthly bearish reversal patterns.

If the index closes much below risi...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Who is King? The Bond Market or the FED

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The King Arthur story is battle between a false KING and the true KING. Generally the movie involves surprises, love and violence, and all this coming to the risk on markets very soon. 

The financial blog space expects the FED to do some sort of Yield Curve Control (YCC) to hold interest rates down while inflation moves higher, this is allowing inflation to run hot. The FED wishes to do this over time to deflate the debt away. Very similar to the 1940's post WW2, yields were pegged to 2% and risk on assets went sky high.

However Peter Boockvar suggest the FED may soon learn it is not in control and the true king of the markets is the BOND MARKET. Peter says simply the bond market is telling the FED to bite me!

The FED is not us...

more from Chart School

Biotech/COVID-19

88% Of COVID Deaths Occurred In Countries Where Over Half Of Population Overweight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

A new report by the World Obesity Federation found that 88% of deaths in the first year of the pandemic occurred in countries where over half of the population is classified as overweight - which is defined as having a body mass index (BMI) above 25. Of note, BMI values above 30 - considered obese - are associated with 'particularly severe outcomes,' accor...



more from Biotech/COVID-19

Politics

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

 

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

A demonstrator dressed as Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 8, 2018. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey Fields, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman “approved an operation … to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” according to a...



more from Politics

Mapping The Market

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

 

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

Courtesy of Niall McCarthy, Statista

On Wednesday, U.S. regulators announced that Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine being developed by its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Belgium is effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of the disease. The jab has been deemed safe with 66 percent efficacy and the FDA is likely to approve it for use in the U.S. within days.

The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine can be stored for up to three months in a refrigerator and requires a single shot, ...



more from M.T.M.

Digital Currencies

Crypto - It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



more from Tech. Traders

Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.