Author Archive for Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 19, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A good amount of volatility this past week, but once again indexes are just sort of hanging around as we work through some news items, specifically facing trade issues.  We ended last week with some hand wringing over Turkey – while nothing was really resolved, U.S. markets looked past that… however emerging markets continue their struggle.  The U.S. indexes have simply been range bound for weeks on end.

The Turkish central bank pledged in a statement Monday to provide “all the liquidity the banks need.” It also said banks would be able to borrow foreign-exchange deposits from the central bank at one-month and one-week maturities. Analysts said Turkey’s reluctance to raise interest rates stood out.  Wednesday, Qatar reportedly pledged to invest $15 billion in Turkey following a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan and Qatar’s Sheikh Temim bin Hamed Al Sani.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, said the main reason Turkey’s crisis is not likely to spread is because Turkey is an outlier.  “It has borrowed more, as a percentage of its economy, in foreign currencies than any other country. There are only a handful of countries that are even close, including Hungary, Argentina, Poland and Chile. Recently, its central bank effectively lost its independence and is now politically unable to take measures that might mitigate the crisis. In other words, Turkey is both more exposed and less able to do something about it than any other country. Notably, while the other exposed countries are also taking hits, no country is as bad as Turkey,” he said in a note.

“The bottom line is that the volatility seen in overseas currency markets does not change the immediate picture for the stock market. The market continues to be driven by improving economic conditions. This is underscored by a report last week showing confidence among small businesses at an all-time record high, which bodes well for continued strength in the labor markets,” Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at


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The anatomy of the recent gold sell off

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-anatomy-of-the-recent-gold-sell-offFor the arrow to fly, the bow must be pulled back. Gold is in a pullback at the moment.





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Main chart in video.





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Gold PnF




Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.”..



William D Gann





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..



George Soros





..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..



George Soros







The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











Bitcoin Update – 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-update--6000-is-supportDemand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video


BTC
 

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quotes…

.."There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play."…

Jesse Livermore

..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..

Robert G Allen

.."Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven"..

Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch

.."Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It's really a great invention and I wouldn't under-estimate the value of that, but they're not designed to take care of social needs"..

George Soros


 





Weekly Market Recap Aug 12, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Indexes spent the past week churning along as news flow was generally quiet…outside of Turkey and Russia that is.  The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been in the red for weeks, and breadth has remained pretty weak but the indexes continue to hold up!  A conundrum indeed!  That said keep an eye on foreign markets to see if any “contagion” happens – thus far, the U.S. markets have been acting impervious.

“Despite the gains in the averages last week, fewer stocks hit new 52-week highs and an increasing number of issues reached new lows for the year. Overall, the technical indicators argue on the side of caution,” said William Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird, in a note.

Trade Wars!! ™ continued but without much affect on markets.

“Things are looking good in the U.S. in terms of earnings and data, but things aren’t as rosy if you look to China, emerging markets or Europe. Weakness in those regions could eventually become a headwind for the U.S.,” said Suzanne Hutchins, senior portfolio manager of the $1.5 billion Dreyfus Global Real Return Fund, which is run out of the investment boutique Newton.

The Turish lira took a hit late in the week (-17% Friday) as Trump and the ECB attacked… boosting the U.S. dollar… and bonds.

The steep decline in the Turkish currency came after the European Central Bank expressed concerns about potential contagion from Turkey’s problems, especially in the banking sector.  The country is struggling with double digit inflation and its reliance on foreign funding. With much of its debt denominated in U.S. dollars, the stronger buck has added weight to its debt burden.  Analysts and investors have also attributed the relentless pressure on the Turkish currency to a growing diplomatic spat between Washington and Ankara over the detention of a U.S. pastor in Turkey.  The lira’s stumble prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to announce a doubling of U.S. tariffs on certain Turkish goods.

Turkey’s currency volatility has recently accelerated and


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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Tuesday, 06 March 2018, 05:52:46 PM

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Comment: US Consumer, using too much credit, and not savings to get buy. As savings all used up!

Date Found: Friday, 16 March 2018, 01:36:17 PM

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Comment: ? = US Pension Crisis ? = ETF unwind ? = Inflation busts bonds ? = Italian bank issue get real

Date Found: Sunday, 18 March 2018, 07:17:30 PM

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Comment: As a rule of thumb, when stock prices charts go vertical, that’s a sign. RTT: Run away!

Date Found: Sunday, 18 March 2018, 09:58:15 PM

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Comment: Another test of lows..

Date Found: Tuesday, 20 March 2018, 10:58:26 PM

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Comment: Another Large Silver Miner is Getting Out of the Silver Mining Business? youtu.be/EObaTAKndj4 The fix for lower silver prices, is lower silver prices.

Date Found: Saturday, 24 March 2018, 03:17:10 PM

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Comment: KWN COT report bullish for silver

Date Found: Saturday, 24 March 2018, 06:19:34 PM

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Comment: Amazing Silver Setup & Stock Market Meltdown Update youtu.be/GBnxMuc-g0c

Date Found: Tuesday, 27 March 2018, 01:40:11 PM

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Comment: Recession is near..maybe!

Date Found: Wednesday, 28 March 2018, 03:02:08 PM

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Comment: Bloomberg’s Smart Money Flow Index, which tracks Dow Jones Industrial Average moves in the first and final 30 minutes of trading. RTT: ouch!

Date Found: Wednesday, 28 March 2018, 03:04:42 PM

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Weekly Market Recap Aug 05, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

We began last week’s recap with this chart regarding the percent of stocks in the NASDAQ over their 50 day moving average – it was at 42%.   Fast forward a week and the number is 42% again – despite a 1% gain for the week in the index.  So a bit of a divergence here; mega stocks like Apple – the first trillion dollar company in the U.S., are masking some weakness below the surface.

Monday thru Wednesday were essentially a wash on the indexes but the good vibes of Apple helped indexes Wednesday thru Friday (stocks initially had gapped down quite sharply Wednesday pre market).  While the employment data was not great, within the scope of the larger picture the trend is still solid and these things tend to get revised a few months out anyhow.

I’ve mentioned one company twice already in the first two paragraphs so unless you’ve been living under a financial rock this was the rock star of the week:

The Federal Reserve met this week and as expected – nothing of note came to light.  Markets are pricing in about a 90% probability of another rate hike in September and a 70% chance of another in December. The Fed upgraded its view of the economy to “strong” from “solid”.

The Fed kept its main interest rate unchanged at 1.75% to 2%, as widely expected, and indicated that it is likely to raise rates next month as the economy remains strong.  Markets have penciled in two further rate increases for this year, in September and December.

“The FOMC expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the committee’s symmetric 2% objective over the medium term,” the Fed said.

According to Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist Capitol Securities Management Inc., that is only the second time this century that the central bank


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Reading the tape of ticker UR Energy

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

reading-the-tape-of-ticker-ur-energyUS sanctions on Russia has an effect on Uranium prices, they go up!

Also please review (no association): This Year, Everyone Will Love Uranium
 

Uranium
 


 

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

Investing Quotes:

.."It is not as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time."..
Jesse Livermore

.."It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled"..
Mark Twain

Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.
Bruce Kovne

..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..
Robert G Allen

.."To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate…, producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic."…
Charles August Lindbergh Snr





Indices Struggle To Recover Monday’s Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

While today ended as a day for bulls to take satisfaction, there is still plenty of work to do to get indices back to the multi-year highs which were challenged last week. The losses endured on Friday and Monday were enough to drive technical breaks, but not all of these were undone by today’s buying.

The S&P managed to retain its breakout as buyers looked to defend its 50-day MA. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day as supporting technicals remained in the green.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been working through its supply issues in what has been a very scrappy six month period. Watch for an upside break of the channel although a move to the lower channel is still looking more likely at this stage.

Small Caps had a very good day, but there is much lost ground still to make up. The worrying development was the channel breakdown on Friday, but if it can break above 1,710 it would reaffirm the bullish trend established since May. Technicals are now considered net bearish with the loss of the bullish mid-line for slow stochastics [39,1].

The Nasdaq has been working its 50-day MA for the second time since its last successful test in June. Today’s action can be read as a bullish harami, which means bulls can buy with a stop on a loss of 7,605. The initial target is to recover 7,800 and challenge the ‘bull trap’.

The worry is the Semiconductor Index. After doing well to break 1,380 it now finds itself again on a bearish foot following a fresh ‘bull trap’. It may drift down to its 200-day MA (yet again) but each such test increases the chances for a breakdown.  While the index has yet to establish a new trend as it works through its consolidation a triangle, a new downtrend would be bad news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (and eventually Large and Small Cap indices too).

For tomorrow, all eyes…
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Semiconductors Index Breakout but Dow at Channel Resistance as Small Caps Breakdown

Courtesy of Declan

Lots of divergences in play across the markets. Start with the positives, the Semiconductor Index edged above resistance in what looks like breakout. It lost ground Friday which suggests it may still require a redrawing of resistance if this is some form of rising channel. However, in the near term, this looks like a genuine breakout and look for a move to triangle resistance.
 


It wasn't all good news. The Russell 2000 took a big hit as rising channel support was broken in a decisive move lower. The index finished just below its 50-day MA, which is still a possible support level.  Technicals are mixed but there may be enough support to see the 200-day MA hold as support if the 50-day MA don't.
 

The Nasdaq also finished down at its 50-day MA but in doing so left a 'bull trap'; shorts will look to attack rallies back to 7,800. Volume dropped a little but there were bearish technicals for +DI/-DI, On-Balance-Volume and MACD. On Monday, don't be surprised if there is an intraday spike low down to the 200-day MA but a close above 7,737.
 

Not a whole lot to add for the S&P, the index is holding within its rising channel and while it lost ground Friday it didn't come near any major support levels.
 

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at channel resistance for what looks like a shorting opportunity. Technicals are all positive so a breakout is perhaps favored.
 

For tomorrow, the Semiconductor Index has the cleanest breakout and assuming it doesn't tall back into the prior consolidation it will have an opportunity to rally into channel resistance. The 50:50 play is the Dow Jones Index; it's at channel resistance – a preferred short – but technicals suggest there is more upside. The Russell 2000 marked a clear breakdown after a failed attempt to the challenge the swing high; shorts have perhaps the best opportunity here.

 





Weekly Market Recap Jul 29, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More weakness is creeping into the market on a technical basis, but it’s not generally being seen at the index level. However under the surface some things are brewing.  See this chart of the % of stocks in the NASDAQ above their 50 day moving average.   This was near 70% six weeks ago, now it’s nearer to 40% despite the NASDAQ being near all time highs.   Food for thought.

Some good news mid week on the TRADE WARS ™!!! front:

The eurozone and Washington agreed to lower industrial tariffs on both sides and increase liquefied natural gas and soybean exports to Europe, with an agreement to avoid tariffs on European auto makers also in the works, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The earnings avalanche continued.  It was expected to be a very strong quarter – and thus far it is.

As of Friday, just over 52% of S&P 500 components have reported. EPS growth is seen coming in at 21.35%, while sales are expected to be up 9.1%.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and affirmed its plan to end its monthly bond-buying program in December, as had been expected.

The stock of the week was obviously Facebook (FB) which sunk 19% Thursday after the company revealed lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, slowing user growth and weak guidance. It was the biggest one day percentage drop, wiping out about $120 billion of market value in a single day, the largest in history.

Facebook recorded sales of $13.04 billion, a 41.9% increase from a year ago, but that was lower than analyst estimates and previous growth rates. User growth was flat in the U.S. and Canada, and declined in Europe from the previous quarter.

“Our total revenue-growth rates will continue to decelerate in the second half of 2018, and we expect our revenue-growth rates to decline by high-single-digit percentages from prior quarters sequentially in both Q3 and Q4,” Chief Financial Officer David Wehner said on the conference call.


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Phil's Favorites

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Digital Currencies

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

 

Picture via Pixabay

Stop worrying about how much energy bitcoin uses

Courtesy of Katrina Kelly-Pitou, University of Pittsburgh

The word “bitcoin” is as likely to garner feverish excitement as it is glaring criticism. The financial community sees speculative promise in the form of trade that currently has little to no regulation. Meanwhile, others argue that it’s a distraction that detracts from the overall longevity of U.S. financial institutions.

Bitcoin’s energy consumption has become a recent talking point in the debate. ...



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Zero Hedge

"Keep An Eye On Gold" - Trader Sees Market Screaming "Gimme A Break Already"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Markets are screaming "gimme a break already," according to former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow, who notes that with Turkey on an extended summer holiday and Chinese equities getting a late-day boost from their friends, there has been little appetite for angst.

Breslow suggests "we should try it on for size and enjoy it while it lasts."

Via Bloomberg,

...



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ValueWalk

How Does Impact Investment Drive A Social Change And Profit?

By Nathan William. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For a prolonged time, investors have been satisfied with making money. They put little thought into where the money is invested, as long as the dividends are paid and the shares are doing well. But in the last decade, there has been a paradigm shift in terms of how and where investments are made. This alternative approach to investments outs an immense emphasis on corporate social responsibility, company ethics, and it’s all about giving back something worthwhile to the society and the environment as a whole. This wave of change is known as impact investment.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper down 20%, sending a macro message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper has had a rough go of it over the past 7-years and especially of late.

Since the highs back in 2011, Doc Copper has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Since the lows in 2015, it has experienced a strong rally, creating a series of higher lows, as interest rates and several commodities did the same.

In June Doc Copper may have created a double top at (1), as it was testing last years highs. Since hitting 2017 highs at (1), Doc Copper has declined nearly 20% in the past 10-weeks.

The decline now has it testing potential dual support at (2...



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Insider Scoop

Goldman Sachs: Newly Public Aurora Mobile Set To Gain Market Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 28 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 20, 2018 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

Approval of first 'RNA interference' drug - why the excitement?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Approval of first ‘RNA interference’ drug – why the excitement?

Single strands of ribonucleic acid (RNA) are now being used to treat disease. By nobeastsofierce / shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Thomas Schmittgen, University of Florida

Small interfering RNA sounds like something from a science fiction novel rather than a revolutionary type of medicine. But this odd-sounding new drug of...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 19, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

A good amount of volatility this past week, but once again indexes are just sort of hanging around as we work through some news items, specifically facing trade issues.  We ended last week with some hand wringing over Turkey – while nothing was really resolved, U.S. markets looked past that… however emerging markets continue their struggle.  The U.S. indexes have simply been range bound for weeks on end.

The Turkish central bank pledged in a statement Monday to provide “all the liquidity the banks need.” It also said banks would be able to borrow foreign-exchange deposits from the central bank at one-month and one-week maturities. Analysts said T...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>