Author Archive for Chart School

Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-is-entering-the-dead-zoneBitcoin and the technology boom of 1990′s have so much in common, you would think they are twins!

Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver

The chart below shows how similar each story is.

Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones (massive support zones). 

The first massive bubble can be tagged as the ’NEW IDEA CONCEPT’ rally, the next rally will be its ‘USE CONCEPT’ move. Those coins or tokens which do not attract a market use will fade away into history.  

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BTC1

There is a powerful force under the bitcoin market, this has been proved by massive money turning up during climactic sell offs. It is our view Bitcoin will not go to ZERO, however it may go to massive support zones and slump around for some time. The internet is still using a fiat payment system which travels through many banks (and fees associated with it) therefore the true internet money has yet to be solidified. Bitcoin (and Litecoin [in our view]) are heavy weight contenders!


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..“The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “flexible” and “patient” on the monetary policy.

The minutes from the recent Federal Reserve meeting were likewise “dovish”:

The release of Fed minutes revealed that some central-bank officials hard reservations about an interest-rate increase last month due to market volatility, though policy makers voted unanimously in favor of the move. They also recommended the Fed should be “patient” and stressed that “a relatively limited amount of additional tightening” is appropriate.

“The backdrop for stocks is positive, with earnings growth still projected to be healthy, while the Fed looks like it is pausing,” Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors, told MarketWatch.

“Stocks are loving that central bank policy appears to be in an ultra-dovish mode,” wrote Edward Moya, chief market strategist at Oanda, in a note. “Inflation is low and under control and the main catalyst for the Fed’s ability to be patient.”

In economic news ISM services slowed much like manufacturing did the prior week with a reading of 57.6 from 60.6 in November – that is still highly expansionary.

For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.5% and the NASDAQ 3.5%.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The


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Cycle moves to profit from in 2019

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

cycle-moves-to-profit-from-in-2019Every thing has a cyclical manner, some more than others. And when price and the cycle runs together, it great to be in it for the ride!

Of course fundamentals are the reason for a price move, yet the laws of nature seems to co ordinate fundamentals, price and time together, hence the outcome can be seen via a sine wave cycle.

If you use some math called 'Bartels' (more here) you can scan many sine waves periods to see if they fit into your price time series, each time series will have it's own characteristics, some cycles will be a better with either a daily, weekly or monthly periods. Back testing the cycle is critical, as cycles do come into form and fall out of form, but over time they do add to the investors arsenal while working out the next risk reward price move. 

Consider these possible big movers in 2019.

Chart: Gold stocks to gold.


XAU
 

Chart: USD or DXY index.


DXY
 

Chart: Crude oil


OIL
 

There are some big moves coming in 2019, cycles help the investor judge each one. 

Investing Quotes:

.."I have yet to find a man, in or out of Wall Street, who is able to make money in (markets) continuously or uninterruptedly. Like anyone else, I have good and bad periods."..
Richard D Wyckoff

..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..
John Templeton

.."Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery"..
Spike Milligan

…“To me, the 'tape' is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…
Martin Zweig

.."The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them"
Peter Lynch





Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market

 

Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market

By Elliott Wave International

Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it's actually the other way around--the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would "rescue" investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

The Fed increased its federal funds rate a quarter-point from 2.25% to 2.50%. As shown by the dashed line in Figure 1, the Fed's move followed a rise in the six-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.36% to 2.56% and an increase in the three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.18% to 2.42% since the prior Fed rate hike on September 26. So, market rates remain nearly undefeated when it comes to predicting what the Fed's actions will be.

181228 - Chart 1

Figure 1

Figure 2, a longer term version of the same relationship, is from The Socionomic Theory of Finance by Robert Prechter. It shows the federal funds rate as set by the Fed and the market-set three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield back to early 2000. This history shows that the T-bill market moves first and the Fed's interest-rate changes follow. As a result, no one monitoring the Fed's decisions can predict when T-bill rates will change, but anyone monitoring the T-bill rate can predict when the Fed's rates will change. We demonstrated this ability in August 2007 by predicting that the Fed was on the cusp of lowering its federal funds rate dramatically. Figure 2 shows the timing and its aftermath.

 

181228 Chart 2

Figure 2
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Weekly Market Recap Jan 6, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

It was another volatile week with big swings especially Thursday and Friday but the new Federal Reserve Chairman finally bowed to pressure from the investor class and went very DOVISH in comments Friday, stoking the type of rallies we’ve seen for decades now on the back of words by Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, et al.   Ironically the guy was sitting next to Yellen and Bernanke while making these comments…

“We don’t believe that our issuance is an important part of the story of the market turbulence that began in the fourth quarter of last year. But, I’ll say again, if we reached a different conclusion, we wouldn’t hesitate to make a change,” Powell said. “If we came to the view that the balance sheet normalization plan — or any other aspect of normalization — was part of the problem, we wouldn’t hesitate to make a change.”

Thursday’s swoon was due to guidance by Apple (AAPL) as the company’s words signaled the fear of many market watchers about a global slowdown, especially in China.  This led to the worst day for Apple since 2013.

Before we move on to the week, taking a moment to assess 2018 the returns were -6.2% for the S&P 500 and -3.9% for the NASDAQ.

A very interesting statistic:  2018 was the first year since 1948 (!!) that the S&P 500 finished negative after finishing up in each of the first 3 quarters.  For the NASDAQ it was the first time since 1987 (which was a bloody October).

In economic news ISM manufacturing tumbled dramatically from a reading of 59.3 in November to 54.1 in December.  Wow.  Any reading over 50 still signals expansion but that’s quite a haircut in 30 days.  Expectations were for a reading of 57.0.

On a brighter front, although it’s usually a lagging indicator when the economy turns – the government reported job gains of 312,000 well in advance of expectations of 182,000.  The unemployment rate did rise 0.2% but that was mostly…
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Bitcoin, How do they get those $50k forecasts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-how-do-they-get-those-50k-forecastsPopular securities are controlled by long term price channels.



More from RTT Tv










Bitcoin chart from the video.



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BTC




Here is the Apple Inc chart within the video.







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Apple Inc









Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware either.”..



William D Gann





…”This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”…



Charles August Lindbergh Snr





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner











Big Profits from Big Channels

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

big-profits-from-big-channelsBig profits come from big swings within the long term channels.

Here are the big channels for gold (GLD) and Dow Jones (INDU).

Readtheticker has price data for 100+ years for the important securities. 

The red arrows are points of interest.

Gold holds support, demand present.

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GLD long

Gold first attempt was a fade, now a chance to break upper blue channel.

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GLD Short

Dow hits green upper outer channel, awesome!

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Dow Long

Dow double top, or double failure to get over upper green channel forces profit taking. Of course after Mr Powell makes interest rate noise. support from red channel lines. Will it hold as it has before!

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Dow short


Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. To help you applying Richard Wyckoff and Richard Ney logic
a wealth of knowledge is available via our RTT Plus membership.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”I believe that uncontrolled basic emotions are the true and deadly enemy of the speculator. That hope, fear, and greed is always present, these emotions sit on the edge of the psyche, waiting on the sidelines, waiting to jump into the action.”..

Jesse Livermore

After a question on how to become a better investor professional


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Weekly Market Recap Dec 30, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Hello readers – please take 30 seconds and complete our 2018 Market Recaps Reader Survey – it’s just a few questions and lets us know how we are doing.  Thank you!

In last week’s recap we wrote:

“All the charts continue to point to bad signs – that said in the near term the market is EXTREMELY oversold and vicious rallies can and do happen within downtrends but aside from the nimblest of traders it remains a time of caution.   Maybe Santa can bring some rallying this week.”

and

“Again let me say we are VERY oversold short term so a violent oversold rally could occur at any time.”

Indeed we saw that with a vicious rally Wednesday – in fact the first 1000 point move in the DJIA in history.  Since we prefer % gains, Wednesday’s rally was the best for the major indexes since March 23, 2009.  For those with very short time spans and nimble fingers the selloff Monday – on top of what was rarely seen oversold conditions – was a nice short term buying opportunity for a quick in and out trade.  That said we are nowhere near out of the woods – the rubber band had simply gone too far one way and when that happens the snap back is often furious.  Thursday was another wickedly volatile day with the intraday action (heaving selling until the closing 90 minutes when another giant rally occurred).   Stable markets are relatively calm – this is not that.

Speaking of volatility:

The Thursday turnabout was the largest such swing for the S&P 500 since May 25, 2010, and the largest for the Nasdaq since Nov. 18, 2008.

Was that “the bottom” – you never know until after the fact – but there is a lot of work for bulls to do to prove it was.

“Such rallies are not uncommon in troubled times, and we have experienced many of them in past bear markets. To call for


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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Friday, 29 June 2018, 01:39:39 AM

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Comment: Come on! Spooky or what!

Date Found: Friday, 29 June 2018, 02:35:49 PM

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Comment: Recession warnings grow, this indicator rarely gets it wrong!

Date Found: Friday, 29 June 2018, 07:45:58 PM

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Comment: @nd Qtr Money managers adjusting their books, TIPS, US CPI and USDJPY all positive for gold, watch July

Date Found: Saturday, 30 June 2018, 03:03:45 PM

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Comment: 2018 vs 2000, the sudden drop is a worry!

Date Found: Sunday, 01 July 2018, 07:57:55 PM

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Comment: Screwed:For the sake of the market – and Trump’s sense of S&P500-defined self-worth – MS better be wrong, because if resilient tech stocks are what has kept US equity market above water so far even as the rest of the world has slumped, then a tech crash may be all that it takes to launch the next recession.

Date Found: Monday, 02 July 2018, 03:08:25 PM

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Comment: Rob Kirby – Pro-Dollar Forces vs. Anti-Dollar Forces Good chat! youtu.be/sOre1iPajWE

Date Found: Tuesday, 03 July 2018, 01:03:46 AM

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Comment: Michael Pento: When The Yield Curve Inverts Soon, The Next Recession Will follow: youtu.be/kov9MOJaH4I

Date Found: Tuesday, 03 July 2018, 03:42:46 PM

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Comment: Turning Points and Timing | Felix Zulauf Outtake | Real Vision Video youtu.be/wfzmgfYiMYM

Date Found: Saturday, 07 July 2018, 11:06:08 PM

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Comment: Central Banks…
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Weekly Market Recap Dec 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Another disaster week for the markets, and one of the worst this writer can remember since the financial crisis.  Indeed this was the worst one week performance for the S&P 500 since 2011 and NASDAQ since October 2008!  Not even a more “dovish” Fed could save it Wednesday; definitely a change of character.  All the charts continue to point to bad signs – that said in the near term the market is EXTREMELY oversold and vicious rallies can and do happen within downtrends but aside from the nimblest of traders it remains a time of caution.   Maybe Santa can bring some rallying this week.

The Fed announced its fourth interest-rate increase of the year, hiking the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, and deepened those losses during a press conference where Chairman Powell explained the decision and accompanying forecasts.   The central bank now pencils in two rate hikes in 2019, not the three moves seen in September, and it still forecasts just one more hike for 2020.

Of particular concern was Powell’s discussion of the Fed’s quantitative tightening program, which is now removing $50 billion of federal government debt and mortgage bonds from the central bank’s balance sheet.  Powell reiterated in his news conference that balance-sheet reduction would remain on “autopilot,” suggesting that even if the U.S. economy deteriorates significantly, as many market participants are predicting will happen next year, financial conditions will nevertheless become tighter month-by-month.

“The immediate market reaction has been that the statement is less dovish than anticipated,” said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. “Perhaps people had unrealistic expectations about what the Fed would say.”

“I would characterize the Fed’s statement as dovish, but perhaps not as dovish as the market hoped,” said Peter Berezin senior vice president of global investment strategy at BCA research.

Economic news was not market moving so we’ll ignore it.

If you care about “bear market” definitions (which are a bit silly) –…
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Phil's Favorites

Global warming 'hiatus' is the climate change myth that refuses to die

 

Global warming 'hiatus' is the climate change myth that refuses to die

riphoto3 / shutterstock

Courtesy of Kevin Cowtan, University of York and Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Bristol

The record-breaking, El Niño-driven global temperatures of 2016 have given climate change deniers a new trope. Why, they ask, hasn’t it since got even hotter?

In response to a recent US government report on...



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Zero Hedge

"Elon Wants This Fat P*ssy": Azealia Banks Posts Text Message Flame War With Grimes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just a couple of days ago we posted that subpoenas could be forthcoming for Elon Musk's ex-girlfriend, Grimes, and Musk’s one time houseguest Azealia Banks, as part of an investor lawsuit against Musk for last summer's "funding secured" fiasco. We said in the post that the discovery process in the case could lead to interesting information as to what was going on behind the scenes, and in the mind of the parties invo...



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Chart School

Bitcoin is entering the Dead Zone

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Bitcoin and the technology boom of 1990's have so much in common, you would think they are twins!

Previous Post: Bitcoin is so like 1979 silver

The chart below shows how similar each story is.

Mr Market knows this, therefore the desire to enter this market is low, and lower prices will plaque Bitcoin for the next 18 months at least. The supply of coins into this market will continue, and prices will continue to fall, there may be bear market rallies along the way, and the good news is the patient (yip that word) long term investors will have the chance to accumulate coins at pre 2017 bubble launch zones...

more from Chart School

ValueWalk

Everyone Else Is Selling Stocks, So Is It Time To Buy?

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After a difficult few trading days in the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks are bouncing back with meaningful gains on Monday following Friday’s strong rally. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 were all up by more than half a percent by midday. It looks like investors could be taking advantage of the end-of-the-year declines, but is this a wise time to be buying?

Trying to time the bottom of the market will almost always be a fool’s errand, but one firm suggests equities could have much farther to fall before they hit bottom in 2019.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>