Gold Stocks Review
by Chart School - June 26th, 2022 5:05 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker
Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.
Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?
1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.
A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All these rallies coincided with a move higher in oil and a move lower in the US dollar. Recently oil moved from $70 to $110 but gold did not move higher, this is because the US dollar was strong during the same period.
Currently some 2022 H2 fundamentals are brewing which may see higher oil prices with a lower US dollar:
Oil: The coming 2022/23 European winter will send world oil and gas prices much higher. Europe has refused Russian supplies and the clash between consumers and politicians is coming, and before a deal is done oil and gas will be much higher.
US dollar: The FED pauses or cuts rate, halts balance sheet reduction. Due to high recession risk they are forced to pivot. More so they pivot while the ECB is hiking rates. Biden has worked out the recession doom talk is worse than inflation going in to the US mid terms.
A move higher in gold will see the gold miners do well, more so if the stock market moves higher as well. This may happen when and if the FED switches from extreme hawk to maybe a mild hawk or even a dove with monetary policy.
Yes the FED can flip flop!
Some charts
Chart 1 – Gold Miners Junior: Good accumulation is present. Richard Wyckoff laws applied.
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Cycle Review
by Chart School - June 17th, 2022 4:15 pm
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Some big cycles in major market leading trends to review.
Bitcoin is at or near a bottom, maybe time for a base to build.
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Big gold cycle getting ready to signal much higher prices into the next decade.
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ASX Gold stock near the bottom.
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Crude Oil is running hot.
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The mighty US Dollar is near a peak, easy money has been made.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Investing Quote…
…”They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.”..
Jesse Livermore
…”There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force,
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by Chart School - June 7th, 2022 6:15 am
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Gold Gann Angle Update
by Chart School - May 30th, 2022 7:17 pm
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The gold to long bond relationship is about to allow gold price to move higher.
US Economic data has sunk, the economy has been slammed with higher oil prices, higher inflation, supply chain issues and corporate profit troubles. The rise of growth fears over high inflation fears will play on the US 10 year interest rate mostly likely keeping rates under 3% if not much lower. Lower 10 yr interest rate tend to mean higher gold prices (chart 1). Peak inflation fear may have passed.
The US dollar has also enjoyed a strong rally on much higher US inflation reports relative to the European Union, however this is changing as inflation in Germany is hitting all time highs and the ECB may have to hike rates faster and further than the FED, likely to send the EURUSD much higher. Also news items like COVID in China and war in the Ukraine are coming to an end, peak fear has passed, which gives more support for a higher EURUSD. Good for gold and silver.
Chart 1: The 10 year interest rate relationship to gold price in US dollars.
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Chart 2: Gold price is following the Gann Angles draw from zero (red lines), the blue lines offer a time zone as to the acceleration of price higher.
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Chart 3: Forest for the trees standard Gann Angles.
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
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Powell has a debt problem
by Chart School - May 23rd, 2022 6:54 pm
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The last time the US entertained debt this high (relative to GDP) was post World War 2.
The prior US high debt years were between 1936 and 1954, back then the public understood why the high debt existed (WW2) and why the public had to suffer high inflation to allow deflation of the debt to a manageable level. This question was not as political as it is today.
Current US debt levels are the result of ‘end of empire’ spending, simply spending on steroids beyond one means. The FED needs inflation for the same reason as the post WW2 period to deflate away the debt.
The current political talk of ‘fight inflation’ will be short lived and the FED will be forced to accept higher inflation levels over the 2% (say between 4% to 6%). This change will be forced on them as the FEDs inflation fighting policies are currently breaking the credit and treasury markets (see via credit spreads and the Move Index).
The chart below shows a orange band (chart 3), this band represents a interest max of 3.25%. The US 10 year interest rate (black line) must not pass above if the FED wishes to avoid a crash in US debt and a run on the US dollar. After world war 2 the FED ensured this did not happen, back then they implemented yield curve control over the interest rate markets, even while high inflation (green line) periods persisted.
The FED will be forced into some sort of yield curve control 2022+ and this will involve money printing and send the FED balance sheet to all time highs.
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Of course if interest rates can not be contained under 3.25% then the FED is going to have find a new tool to avoid a world depression.
ha!
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Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
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Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!
by Chart School - May 13th, 2022 9:11 pm
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In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.
In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.
David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today. David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.
The question remains will something break in the markets after 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggests sooner rather than latter has the best odds. This blogs says near 2022 Q3.
Will Powell even be able to start Quantitative tightening (QT or reducing the FED balance sheet)? Or is the next major FED move to Pivot [like 2018] back to the extremely dovish monetary side.
Volker rate hike conditions 1979 to 1982
Powell rate hike conditions 2022+
We are at the pain line now. Pension funds are fearful of valuation crash already.
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by Chart School - May 10th, 2022 6:15 am
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NOTE: Posts here are the lite version, more depth on each subject can be found via our RTT Plus membership.
Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.
Support this work by buying us a hot drink by CLICKING HERE. If you would like make greater contribution, please make a donation by CLICKING HERE
NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named…
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US debt is being rejected by big money
by Chart School - May 6th, 2022 5:18 pm
Courtesy of Read the Ticker
The warning bells of a US sovereign debt crisis are getting louder. When the bells ring you know something is going to get burned down.
Dear reader the market is ringing the bells, can you hear them. Big money is doing something different this time.
Take a look.
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This is why, too much supply of US debt, while inflation, oil and the US dollar are hot.
In 2022 the FED wants to sell into a rising interest rate market a $1 trillion of US debt off its own balance sheet (QT), get this, while the US Govt is planning to issue new debt of $800 billion and also roll over $900 billion of older debt in 2022 (chart below).
This is a supply of $2.7 trillion in US debt to sell while the US dollar is making new all time yearly highs.
In the past the Japanese and the Europeans have been large buyers of US Debt, today the Japanese and the Europeans can not buy the debt while their currencies plunge lower, so who is going to be the buyer of this debt. US corporations and banks are already loaded up to the gills. The FED will be buyer of last resort and their balance sheet will expand the release valve will be a lower US dollar (DXY).
Of course what if Japan starts selling its $1.3 trillion in US assets to support its currency? They will need to sell something as they must import 100% of their oil. This does not make US debt supply crisis any easier. Of course other countries may also do the same while the US dollar screams higher.
investors just do not like US ‘Zombie’ debt, even when they are being scared out of stocks.
Guess what in this movie gold kills zombie debt.
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World Sovereign Debt Risk Front and Center
by Chart School - April 23rd, 2022 4:26 pm
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The BOJ is naked, and they still think they look good. We are NOW at start of pricing in a world wide sovereign debt crisis. Think ‘Bear Sterns 2007′.
The Emperor’s New Clothes Plot
Two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent. The emperor hires them, and they set up looms and go to work.
A succession of officials, and then the emperor himself, visit them to check their progress. Each sees that the looms are empty but pretends otherwise to avoid being thought a fool.
Finally, the weavers report that the emperor’s suit is finished. They mime dressing him and he sets off in a procession before the whole city. The townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid, until a child blurts out that the emperor is wearing nothing at all.
The people then realize that everyone has been fooled. Although startled, the emperor continues the procession, walking more proudly than ever.
Now, the BOJ is buying all their own debt, or in other words never ending quantitative easing (QE), this has forced the Yen down hard. The BOJ begged the FED/Treasury to lower the US dollar, for now Yellen said ‘No’. This is surprising as it also means the Japanese will now not be in the market to buy US debt. This is the beginning of world wide sovereign debt blow up.
Also think about the world wide car business, Toyota cars just got much cheaper, German BMW will not be happy about that. This imbalance will be deflationary. The falling Yen will break something.
Chart 1 – The YEN is now in free fall.
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While the BOJ has fallen into never…
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by Chart School - April 12th, 2022 6:14 am
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.