Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

Daily Stock and Options Tips & Updates; Get Our Daily Newsletter Here

Hey Phil, You called all the trends and market movements with perfection this week. I enjoyed it! Thanks for keeping us sane!

GClay
Phil, 3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday. Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.

Gingbaum
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!

Singapore Steve
Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

RMM
Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.

craigsa620
I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.

Kustomz
I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

Texasmotion
Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

JRW III
hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.

Lunar
Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

Jordan
Phil/CLK4 – Perfect! Saw the answer 1 min after my post…out with $740 on two contracts. Thanks again for the education.

Jeffdoc2004
You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

Corleone
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!

Rookie IRA Investor
BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

StJeanluc
Phil - I caught the interview…. terrific!. Your host recommended that the viewers should " go to your site, as you will be entertained ". That is for sure if you consider entertainment is laughing while you read, learn and make unbelievable leveraged profits that you never thought were possible. That is my kind of entertainment !

Gel1
I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves. As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult. I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !

1234Gel
Phil, I meant to post over the weekend, but I was busy having fun . Last week was a very nice week for me, and I wanted to thank you for all that you do. I am pretty much back to cash and really feel like I am learning. I have out performed the $5kp by a very large margin. Thanks again for the service you provide.

Scotbraze
Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!

Biodieselchris
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

Brenteaz
Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

Acd54
I remember that call (to sell gold at $1,850) as well... and the many Buy-Writes that were created on your site during that period... thanks to you, I had an average ROI of close to 70% for over 2 years, averaging 4,000 trades per year. Busy trading, but lots of fun and memorable trades.

1234gel
Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!

Jomptien
Phil: Thank You! Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!

Lincoln
It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

Pirateinvestor
I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!

AmalfiCoast
Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

Where
Why were the analysts wrong? If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also. But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.

Denlundy
Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

OnWisconsin
Thanks Phil for helping make this a much, much better year this year than last. Your tutelage has been so very helpful. Don't think I can say Thanks enough. And I thanks all the members here who were work hard in helping us all to become better traders, and I would say better people as well. The support many of you offered when we evacuated during the fire this past year helped me immeasurably. Happy New Years to you all!

JBur
I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

Pharmboy

Author Archive for Chart School

Large Caps Feel the Heat as Semiconductors Struggle

by Chart School - June 21st, 2018 5:53 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them. Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.

The Dow sell-off didn’t stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.

Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly undone by a bearish engulfing pattern to follow on from the ‘tweezer top’. Next up is the 50-day MA. The sharp underperformance relative to the Nasdaq 100 is also weighing on the index.

The damage in the Semiconductors hasn’t yet spread to the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 but the outlook for their breakouts is not good. However, for now, their respective breakouts are intact. The only damage done was a fresh ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD.

The Russell 2000 also got hit with a MACD trigger ‘sell’ but 20-day and 50-day MAs are available to play as support.

For tomorrow, eyes should be on the Semiconductor Index. The Dow is effectively range trading and not that interesting but the Semiconductor Index was looking to challenge highs with Tech Indices hitting new all-time highs. Should the former fail then the chance for ‘bull traps’ in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 become significantly higher. Aggressive traders could look to play for a reversal in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

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Small Caps Add To Gains

by Chart School - June 20th, 2018 5:33 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

Good news for momentum traders as the Russell 2000 continued its good run. The Russell 200 will start to get hot when it gets into the 15% profit take zone at 1,732 – a zone last seen tested in December 2016; if we are looking at February 2011 levels (the 5% historic zone) then the Russell 2000 would be tagging 1,813. Start taking profits, or sell covered calls, when we get into these levels.

The S&P reversed off resistance in early June and hasn’t yet mounted a challenge to break it – today’s gain off its 20-day MA ended in a disappointing doji with bearish technicals for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and -DI/+DI feeding into the weak relative performance.

The Dow Jones had been offering shorts a play off the ‘bull trap’; it’s a scrappy one as prices are back inside the prior channel. The 200-day MA is an area where taking profits would seem prudent (aside from significant bullish reversal candlestick). Technicals, with the exception of Stochastics are all bearish.

The Nasdaq gapped higher but didn’t advance beyond the initial opening strength. However, it was enough to register as a new all-time high and all technicals are in good shape. The Russell 2000 is the better momentum play but the Nasdaq has the more attractive risk:reward given its proximity to support.

For tomorrow, eyes will be on market leading Russell 2000. If gains hold it will likely drive money into the more attractive Tech averages breaking to new highs. Large Caps are caught between two ferns and could go either way.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Bitcoin Update – Testing support on cycle low

by Chart School - June 18th, 2018 7:00 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

bitcoin-update--testing-support-on-cycle-low Due to popular demand, bitcoin review.

More from RTT Tv

Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. With our website you can chart any security in the world.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Without specific, clear, and tested rules, speculators do not have any real chance of success”..

Jesse Livermore

Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.

Bruce Kovner

…”I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second”..

Paul Tudor Jones

..”Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic… There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.”…

Paul Tudor Jones

..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..

Warren Buffett

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Bulls Look To Make a Stand

by Chart School - June 18th, 2018 5:58 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

It’s looking a little early for some of the nascent pullbacks but buyers are stepping in here to support markets. Much of this looks to be driven by the secular bull market leader, Russell 2000. It managed a new closing high as momentum traders continue to benefit from strength in this index.

The index in the best position to offer a trade tomorrow is the Semiconductor Index. Today offered a solid doji just above support. The ‘tweezer top’ is a concern as this pattern is typically a strong reversal signal so cautious buyers may instead prefer to wait until this is negated – but then the risk:reward becomes much broader. Technicals are a mix of bullish and bearish, although tie-deciding relative performance is on bears side (vs Tech indices).

Tech indices have benefited with the Nasdaq 100 offering a breakout opportunity of its own; this a second chance for a bite of the momentum cherry. Technicals are also a little stronger than the Semiconductor Index.

The Nasdaq is a little further along in its push to new highs but it’s a momentum play alternative if you don’t like the Nasdaq 100.

The S&P is also playing for a bounce opportunity with the 20-day MA acting as a support level. It may be not as attractive as other indices but it’s a more cautious play. Technicals are okay despite relative underperformance.

For tomorrow, there are different grades of long plays: momentum plays in Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100, pullback plays in Semiconductor Index and S&P and a momentum hold for the Russell 2000.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Weekly Market Recap Jun 17, 2018

by Chart School - June 18th, 2018 5:28 am

Courtesy of Blain.

After two weeks of rallies, the S&P 500 mostly consolidated this week – except for Friday the action was very reminiscent of 2017 with almost no volatility at all intraday and modest gains or sideways action. Friday was the wrench in the mix, with a gap down to open the day but buyers came in during the afternoon and in the end the markets had a week to digest prior gains. Friday’s action was due to TRADE WARS(tm)!

President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese goods, marking the latest escalation in the trade spat between the two countries. Beijing has said it intends to assess tariffs on a corresponding amount of U.S. goods, while Trump said the U.S. would pursue more tariffs if China retaliates. Subsequently, Trump said there was no trade war with China.

The Federal Reserve did what it had telegraphed what it would do:

The Federal Reserve voted to raise its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2%. Eight of 15 Fed officials now expect at least four rate hikes will be needed this year, up from seven at the March meeting.

The Fed’s dot plot, a projection by the members of the central bank’s expectations for rates in the future, shows the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee penciling in two additional rate increases in 2018 for a total of four increases in the year. That is up from expectations from three in the March Fed rate estimates.

More interesting this week was the European Central Bank which Thursday left interest rates unchanged and laid out plans to taper its program of monthly bond purchases later this year. The central bank is aiming to bring them to a halt by the end of 2018. There was no “taper tantrum” by markets, as we saw in the Bernanke era.

“The ECB did a pretty good job telegraphing what it’s planning to do. [ECB President

…

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Decision Time for Dow and Semiconductor Index

by Chart School - June 14th, 2018 6:21 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls have done a good job of clawing back the losses generated by the individual days of selling which have peppered the market since April’s lows.

The S&P had reversed from the point of the March high in what looked to be a good shorting opportunity but the lack of follow-through leaves this play vulnerable to a swift exit. A short-stop at 2,792 is the best protective play but further highs are looking more likely.

The two indices which have the most to offer are the Dow and the Semiconductor Index.

The Dow Jones is a play for Longs. It has tagged breakout support and now offers a chance for pullback buyers to take a long position. Further losses will open up a shorting opportunity and a potential ‘bull trap’ but another day of losses is needed for this.

The Semiconductor Index has the potential to head in the other direction. There is a mini-tweezer top just below the recent swing high in what could be a potential double top. Adding to the potential bearish tone are sell ‘triggers’ for the MACD and CCI. The main argument against the short play is the overall bullishness of the market as a whole. This is an against the tide play.

There wasn’t a whole lot to report for other indices. Holding on to existing long plays is perhaps the best course of action if not looking at either of the aforementioned opportunities.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

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Bulls Maintain Form

by Chart School - June 12th, 2018 5:48 pm

Courtesy of Declan.

Another day, another day of gains. Nothing significant but enough to keep rallies and recent breakouts intact. There are few trading opportunities – except to hold on to existing positions.

The S&P has a potential shorting opportunity at March swing high resistance but given the breakouts in Tech and Small Caps, I’m not entirely convinced by it. Technicals are net bullish except for relative performance which has been in decline since March.

The Nasdaq closed at new highs – negating the June ‘bear trap’. Relative performance is good too which favours a continuation of the rally.

The Nasdaq 100 also returned to its breakout – following the lead of the Nasdaq. Relative performance against the Russell 2000 is also improving.

The Semiconductor Index is looking to challenge the March ‘bull trap’. It’s coming under a bit of pressure with a ‘sell’ in CCI and a drop in relative performance against the Nasdaq 100. There may be a short play here if it gets closer to 1,440.

The Russell 2000 is tagging the 10% band above its 200-day MA. While this is not ‘profit take’ territory it does show the strength of the rally. Unlike Tech averages, Small Caps have started to slowly roll over in the relative performance stakes.

For tomorrow, consolidation/hold/do nothing is the preferred play. Shorts could look to attack the S&P and maybe the Semiconductor Index. Those longs who have no position could look to buy the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 breakouts but the whipsaw risk is high.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - June 12th, 2018 6:21 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.