Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.

Singapore Steve
Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

Ban2
Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years. THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS

Tchayipov
Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!

Yodi
Every time I read Mr. Davis' market analyses and reports about his super profitable trades I feel admiration mixed with envy for the overall brilliance of this man, intellectual and verbal, his extraordinary savvy in the exotic art of options and, last not least, his moral passion with which he writes, even if in passing, about the darker aspects of capitalism.

RussianBear
Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

Iflantheman
Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

Magret
I am struck by several things over the last few days. First is how level-headed we all are as Greece and China develop. Second is how very helpful it is to see the different trading styles we have, partly because of personal preference and partly because of different stages of development and education. It's very helpful. Well-done, Phil, to have developed this community.

Snow
Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

Winston
Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

JRW III
Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.

rj_jarboe
Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

mSquare
The legendary Phil Davis has done it again with his call to "get out of the market now" (12/05/2017). Congratulations Phil, and while I am at it, I again would like to Thank You for your advise given me in March '09, when you said "unless you believe the world is coming to an end, then get in this market with both feet"...... and what a ride that was !

1234gel
Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!

Mindeyes
Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

Ricpar
Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

Neverworkagain
New member/1st time posting: Thanks Phil and Pharm for the rec on TOS. I've emailed Scott to get myself setup so I hope to hear back soon. As a newbie on PSW for a month now, I've been readin' and readin' and readin'. Gonna start paper-trading for a while. See how I do before putting a single dime into it. New at options but seems like this is the best training and educational platform out there. I'm a long-time mortgage broker who got too involved with real estate investing. LOVED your article, Phil, on mortgage interest scams. Right on!! Let me know if and how I can contribute back to the community here. Cheers! - Mark

Mark
Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

Where
I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

Pstas
Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

Neverworkagain
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.

Oknoman
I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

Texasmotion
GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

Winston
All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

Seaquill
I want to thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. I've learned a lot (and still am) about your trading strategy, but also I see a man who truly cares about our country, America. Thank you.

Autolander
Probably the best approach and method I have ever seen for the public and I have worked for some serious traders at the biggest houses doing research. Those guys all have various forms of inside info that you and I do not and cannot have. Davis simply has a great system based on a very deep understanding and experience that gives him market savvy that is very real. A very smart guy and he shares it for a fee. He knows how to use options to great advantage and make money trading.

DowntoEarthThinking
I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!

AmalfiCoast
Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

Iflantheman
Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.

Coke
Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

Hoss

Author Archive for Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

by Chart School - June 24th, 2020 4:24 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

us-dollar-with-ney-and-gann-angles Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?

Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?

The question is always what will the future price action look like ?

This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.

There are two theories: Gann Angles and Ney Angles.

Gann angles are a fixed set of degrees (see below) and these degrees are based loosely on astrology and the regular cycle of planets around the sun. Gann said price would move between these angles as the angles acted as like critical support and resistance.

Gann Ratios to Degrees
8×1: 7.50°, 4×1: 15.00°, 2×1: 26.25°, 1×1: 45.00°, 1×2: 63.75° , 1×4: 75.00°, 1×8: 82.50°

These angles are a pre designed fixed set approach.

Gann Angle example on the US Dollar

Gann US dollar

Ney angles are calculated from a major low, to preceding lows and major high. The idea is that the future pattern of price is related to the prior pattern of price. Price history does not always marry exactly to the future but it sure can rhyme. Richard Ney calculated the angles and then studied the chart to find which angles dominate price action.

These angles are a per low liquid set approach.

Ney Angle example on the US Dollar

Ney USD

Currently the US dollar chart has strength within it. Jeffer Snider gives a good reason.

Ref: Not COVID-19, Watch For The Second Wave of GFC2

If companies are in cost-cutting mode, and they obviously are, then that immediately puts a ceiling on the right side of the hoped-for “V” (arguing dead against the straight-line extrapolation) and then sets up the potential second wave of GFC2 and economic contraction. How? A weak labor market means instead of 90% of…

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Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?

by Chart School - June 15th, 2020 3:30 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

where-is-the-us-dollar-trend-headed Jesse Livermore said we consider all matters concerning the market, this includes demand and supply fundamentals, general conditions and price patterns.

A high US dollar is the mighty destroyer of all, it explodes foreign debt and risk assets, and it will likely change US politics.

The chart below supports a greater supply of US dollars and a bearish dollar view.

The green line is the spread between the German 10 yr interest rate versus the US 10 yr interest rates, and it is showing bearish pressure on the US dollar. The black line is the trend of the US twin deficits and the US dollar as followed this trend over a very long time and the forecast is for deeper deficits into 2020-22.

The red line is the growth of the US dollar deposits in institutions (turned up side down, or inverted), the more supply of US dollars is bearish for the US dollar. The massive explosion of the red line is directly related to the US Federal Reserve money printing. The TRUMP administration is doing all it can to cap or lower the US dollar, maybe it is lagging the the bearish fundamentals, however we must wonder why the US dollar is not crashing down to $65.

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DXY 1

The bullish support for the the US dollar is the growth of US dollar assets and liabilities out side the US.

US assets

As you can see the levels are $30 to $40 trillion. Massive! This matters because a negative change in these levels will create a shortage of US dollars. If the holders of the above get nervous with economic conditions, COVID19 second/third wave or China – US relations this could promote a wave of selling, which is US dollar supply destruction, hence a shortage, which leads to greater demand and higher prices as the world needs US dollars to trade.

The chart below is the US Dollar (DXY) with Richard Wyckoff demand and supply analysis.

Price action into 2020 has shown strength, testing the bull trap zone, currently the pullback is into middle (or muddle) ground and on the balance US dollar strength is still in…

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RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - June 9th, 2020 6:15 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Tuesday, 03 March 2020, 12:35:55 AM

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Comment:
QTR #177 – Bill Fleckenstein on Coronavirus, Gold and A Coming “Confiden… youtu.be/0C7R0PNtlEg

Date Found: Wednesday, 04 March 2020, 06:14:52 PM

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Comment:
Dr. Lacy Hunt and Yra Harris on the Virus and Economy/Markets Implications youtu.be/j7oKOG0lZDY

Date Found: Wednesday, 04 March 2020, 10:59:55 PM

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Comment:
David Rosenberg, Yra Harris, Peter Boockvar & Jim Bianco on the Virus youtu.be/T4Krp-s8bYg

Date Found: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 04:38:21 PM

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Comment:
VIX_T-Bills_Mar2020

Date Found: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 06:42:01 PM

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Comment:
Bull Steepeners = Recession (3 to 6 months out)

Date Found: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 09:15:19 PM

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Comment:
Is this not the truth! They buy with OPM, but buy gold with their own money!

Date Found: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 09:59:02 PM

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Comment:
Real Conversations: Navigating The Madness Of Markets With John Taylor youtu.be/D2Yc4LMTYUo

Date Found: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 10:25:04 PM

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Comment:
Looks ready to move!

Date Found: Friday, 06 March 2020, 06:55:13 AM

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Comment:
Expect another plunge down 2400 SP500 .. tic tic

Date Found: Friday, 06 March 2020, 05:26:04 PM

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Comment:
Off The Chain #236: Raoul Pal Calls For A…

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Silver volume says something is near boiling point

by Chart School - May 30th, 2020 3:37 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

silver-volume-says-something-is-near-boiling-point Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20.

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being created real money is the fundamental factor which becomes a higher priority over the demand for silver use in industry.

Silver

The silver short term cycle (red) looks like the bottom is in, while the longer term cycle (black) looks higher into the next 24 months.

Silver cycle

Divider

Investing Quotes…

.."In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near it’s end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps!"..Jesse Livermore

.."If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians"..
Warren Buffett

.."Money can't buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery"..
Spike Milligan

…"I always believe that prices move first and fundamentals come second"..
Paul Tudor Jones

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..
Bernard Baruch

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US dollar Review

by Chart School - May 14th, 2020 2:48 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

us-dollar-review The US dollar rally is like seeing a black cat run underneath a ladder while your climbing onto the roof, disaster is coming!

There are plenty of trades around Gann Angles on the US dollar.

USD

More here:

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles, Wyckoff and Ney logic is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years. This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

Investing Quotes…

…"I was brutal in self-analysis. He told his sons his conclusions: “Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.”…He knew that his biggest enemy was his own emotions."…
Jesse Livermore

.."Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway"..
Warren Buffett

..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..
Bernard Baruch

..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..
Warren Buffet

…..“I measure what's going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..
Martin Zweig

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RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - May 12th, 2020 6:15 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Friday, 31 January 2020, 10:09:38 PM

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Comment:
Fireside Chat with Ross Beaty & Marin Katusa youtu.be/jiV1oBE6-sU

Date Found: Thursday, 06 February 2020, 06:35:18 PM

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Comment:
The Sherman Show Podcast: S8 E3 Jim Bianco, President – Bianco Research youtu.be/2K2pM24eYvE

Date Found: Thursday, 06 February 2020, 11:13:38 PM

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Comment:
Why We’re in the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (w/ Steve Bregman &… youtu.be/I4ce1LiuwcA

Date Found: Wednesday, 12 February 2020, 10:49:36 PM

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Comment:
2020 WM Sustainability Forum – Peter Zeihan youtu.be/jT6HFCAFDgU

Date Found: Saturday, 15 February 2020, 07:58:15 PM

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Comment:
Kyle Bass Predicts HSBC Collapse In 2020! (Here’s Why) youtu.be/QwjiIIht0bw

Date Found: Tuesday, 18 February 2020, 09:45:23 PM

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Comment:
A Roman Empire Style Collapse Is Happening In The 21st Century! Charles … youtu.be/vRrUtcIcPUQ

Date Found: Tuesday, 18 February 2020, 10:09:30 PM

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Comment:
Gold is king

Date Found: Friday, 21 February 2020, 10:59:52 PM

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Comment:
Sprott Money News Ask The Expert February 2020 – Luke Gromen youtu.be/psJxYvJHD4k

Date Found: Tuesday, 25 February 2020, 05:05:18 PM

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Comment:
February Conference Board Jobs outlook remains near highs. First downturn likely signals a recession has begun

Date Found: Tuesday, 25 February 2020, 05:14:28 PM

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Comment:
Recipe for biggest boom ever (followed by bust): ZERO…

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SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

by Chart School - May 4th, 2020 3:46 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

sp500-kitchin-cycle-review Early 2020 the fear was the human race ‘David’ may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) ‘Goliath’, well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.

Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

In the previous post the blog said (part 1)

..”We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out.“…

Well it sure did not, the flu lock downs around the world turned off economic activity and crushed the risk on asset price move. The end result is we finally got a true SP500 Kitchin low which we needed to finish the 900 daily cycle. (charts below). The result is some sort of short term US recession can be expected.

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LEI

In the previous post the blog said (part 2)

..”Rolling the dice to get ’7′ does not always work. Post US elections seasonal’s aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting.”…

This still holds true, and we are not there yet.

Reminder ..

decade cycle

As a Wyckoff logic proponent we have to respect the demand behind the good volume little ‘a’ rally (chart below), because it made it easily into and passed the middle ground of the prior consolidation without attracting huge supply. This has to be considered a strength (minor strength, and yes demand is present).

Yes the price smash down from ‘B’ to ‘C’ was a typical sign of weakness of a serious note, but this like anything can be (temporary some say) over ruled. To be sure the little ‘a’ rally is true demand we must expect a successful test to little…

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One day you just have to stop

by Chart School - April 28th, 2020 8:38 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

one-day-you-just-have-to-stop How long can the working class take this sh….t!

Stop telling me everything is all ok

1) Negative interest rates

2) Negative oil prices

3) Man made COVID 19 virus

4) Fake Russian operatives

5) Fake money

6) Fake meat

7) Fake cheese

8) Fake boobs

9) Milk in my baked beans

etc

Enough is enough!

Divider

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
Wyckoff and
Ney logic
is the best way to ride the change, after all these methods have been used successfully for 70+ years.
This post is a delayed and small sample of what is avaliable to members. Sign up to enjoy the full service.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling.”..

Richard D Wyckoff

..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..

Bernard Baruch

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..

Bernard Baruch

..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..

Mark Twain

..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch

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Gold Stock Cycles

by Chart School - April 22nd, 2020 10:17 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

gold-stock-cycles Gold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.

The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.

At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.

The judder bar for a XAU rally is expectation of a US dollar rally. A decent US dollar rally will see gold and gold stocks pullback, but as we all know the US dollar biggest short position is the US Government (they want a lower dollar), and the biggest long position is non US dollar assets in crisis (selling assets forces the buying back of US dollars). Hence the bail outs of dollar assets in crisis.

How well the FED defends their US dollar short position will influence how well the US dollar is capped under $105 on the DXY. This is the only game in down for the next 6 months, nothing else matters.

If price has regular cycles, why fight the cycle. readtheticker.com charting science allows you to find and monitor the cycle better and cheaper than most. Check it out via our subscription service.

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XAU

Divider

Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination
of Gann Angles,
Cycles,
…

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

RTT browsing latest..

by Chart School - April 14th, 2020 6:15 am

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

rtt-browsing-latest Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Saturday, 07 December 2019, 02:31:07 AM

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Comment:
WOW!

Date Found: Saturday, 07 December 2019, 04:08:23 PM

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Comment:
tic tic tic

Date Found: Sunday, 08 December 2019, 12:52:56 AM

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Comment:
Here we go CBs buying bad debt from stupid banks!

Date Found: Thursday, 12 December 2019, 05:20:22 AM

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Comment:
Oh NO! Quickly look away, nothing to see here! All is well!

Date Found: Friday, 20 December 2019, 05:26:26 PM

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Comment:
Gold stocks Watch!

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 December 2019, 11:26:57 PM

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Comment:
Trend line says interest rates going to zero

Date Found: Friday, 03 January 2020, 01:19:48 AM

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Comment:
youtu.be/bWkyP9n0c90

Date Found: Saturday, 04 January 2020, 11:54:57 PM

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Comment:
JPMorgan Silver Crime Charges to NY Fed REPO Loan Ramp youtu.be/Pgjo_GYk6xA

Date Found: Sunday, 05 January 2020, 02:24:05 AM

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Comment:
The SP500 follows the PMI…not the other way around …ooops

Date Found: Tuesday, 14 January 2020, 06:58:19 PM

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Comment:
Sp500 Earnings recession … yet SP500 makes new highs … FUNDAMENTALS … who needs them!

Date Found: Saturday, 18 January 2020, 05:56:01 AM

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Comment:
Ray Dalio’s Protege Sees 30% Move in Gold Prices…

Posted in Chart School, Immediately available to public | No Comments »

Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100 Relative Strength Testing 2000 Highs

July 2nd, 2020 7:19 am

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The tech bubble didn’t end well. BUT it did tell us that the world was shifting into the technology age…

Since the Nasdaq 100 bottomed in 2002, the broader markets have turned over leadership to the technology sector.

This can be seen in today’s chart, highlighting the ratio of Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 performance (on a “monthly” basis).

As you can see, the bars are in a rising bullish channel and have turned sharply higher since the 2018 stock market lows. This highlights the strength of the Nasdaq 100 and large-cap tech stocks.

...

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Zero Hedge

Israeli Leaders Say West Bank Annexation Must Wait Due To COVID-19

July 2nd, 2020 5:25 am

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

What was surely supposed be the most controversial and provocative move in all recent Israeli-Palestine conflict history was supposed to be initiated yesterday, July 1st, according to prior target date statements of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex up to one-third of West Bank territory, including the Jordan Valley.

Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials claimed to have a 'green light' from the Trump administration, but at this point it's anything but certain. “We are in discreet talks with US officials here,” Netanyahu ...

Phil's Favorites

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

July 2nd, 2020 3:11 am

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...

Biotech/COVID-19

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

July 2nd, 2020 3:11 am

Which drugs and therapies are proven to work, and which ones don't, for COVID-19?

We are slowly figuring out which drugs and therapies are effective against the new coronavirus. Anton Petrus / Getty Images

Courtesy of William Petri, University of Virginia

I am a physician and a scientist at the University of Virginia. I care for patients and conduct research to find better ways to diagnose and treat infectious ...

ValueWalk

FedEx Corp.: Fundamentals Support the Price Increase

July 1st, 2020 5:16 pm

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

After reporting better than 4th quarter results on Tuesday, the stock price of FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) has been on a tear. With this article, I plan to demonstrate that the fundamentals support the current price rise. Moreover, the fundamentals also suggest that it is not too late to take a long-term position in this leading air freight and logistics company.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Yesterday, FedEx reported a surge in quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share compared to expectations of $1.52 per s...

The Technical Traders

Long-Term Consumer Discretionary Winners

June 30th, 2020 7:27 pm

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I was live on TD Ameritrade TV talking about consumer discretionary, staples, and utility sectors. Explained is a unique crossover on how some discretionary stocks are also becoming a consumer staple.

Get My ETF Trade Signals, Entry, Targets, and Stop Levels – CLICK HERE ...

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Chart School

US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles

June 24th, 2020 4:24 pm

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Where is price going, is there strength or weakness in the chart?

Previous Post on the US Dollar : Where is the US Dollar trend headed ?

The question is always what will the future price action look like ?

This post will highlight the use of lines generated by angles. Not trend lines, as trend lines require two known points on a chart, where as angles require only one known point and a angle degree to draw a line. The question then becomes how is the angle degree determined.

There are two theories: ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

June 14th, 2020 5:52 pm

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of Lee Adler

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...

Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

May 18th, 2020 7:03 pm

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...

Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

May 16th, 2020 1:51 pm

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

April 3rd, 2020 12:00 am

Courtesy of Benzinga

Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.

...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

February 26th, 2020 12:21 am

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more!

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of!

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.

...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

July 24th, 2019 8:35 am

Via Jean Luc

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

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