Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for 2011

Latest Fukushima Headlines

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest in the tragic story that just gets weirder by the minute.

  • TEPCO’s mishandling of info on nuclear crisis ‘unacceptable’: Edano
  • Partial meltdown of fuel rods believed to be temporary: Edano
  • Radioactive water from No. 2 reactor due to partial meltdown: Edano
  • Contaminated water due to condensed steam, not reactor crack: Edano

And our personal favorite:

  • Locals within 20-km evacuation zone asked not to return for now

As this whole farce has gone beyond the surreal, we are now actively waiting for a cartoon Mr. Burns to show up at any ongoing press conference and announce that Springfield Nuclear Power Plant has LBOed Fukushima with Discount Window financing, at a #Ref! EV/EBITDA considering 9501.JP will not see any positive cash flow for millennia, and is appointing Mr. Sparkle (aka Homer Simpson) chief safety inspector.

Source: Kyodo





Bernanke On The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks, And Why The Fed Will Never Tighten In Response To Oil At Any Price

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Curious what Bernanke thinks of ongoing oil price shocks? Wondering how long before the great Chairsatan will tighten in response to $120 Brent? The shorts answer – never. But don’t take our word for it. Here is a paper titled by the eponymous nemesis of printer cartridge conservation, titled “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks” written when the urge for genocide was just a germ, a seedling if you will, back in the good old 1997. In it, Bernanke, who was yet to make his epochal statement about paradropping crisp Benjamins, makes it all too clear why neither oil at $120 nor oil at $1,120 will be enough to push the FOMC to hike: “an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy.” And there you have it: it is not the natural price response to a period of extensively loose monetary policy that is the issue, it is the Fed doing the right thing and ending the spigot that will be the end of the economy, sayeth the Bernank. And somehow this man runs the world…

Full paper below:

Ben Bernanke And Oil Price Shocks





Guest Post: The Governance Of A Free Society

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The next in a continuing series (most recently: The Transition to a Free Society).

Submitted by Free Radical

The Governance of a Free Society

That government is best which governs not at all. – Henry David Thoreau

Because the state is inherently antisocial, we make a distinction between government and governance. We distinguish, that is, between an overarching entity on the one hand and an underlying process on the other, answering Thoreau’s question by asserting that the next step “towards recognizing and organizing the rights of man” will be taken via the latter, i.e., via the self-organization that is but another term for the spontaneous order by which human society came to be in the first place and has evolved ever since, concomitantly evolving the rules necessary for its governance.  And the fact is, all one really need do to know that this is true is to look around:

Those of us residing in the United States or any of the British Commonwealth countries live under an extremely sophisticated and subtle scheme of rules, very few of which were created by government. Since almost none of the rules that bring peace and order to our existence were created by government, little argument should be required to establish that government is not necessary to create such rules. On the contrary, it is precisely the rules that were created by government that tend to undermine peace and order.

If looking around does not suffice, of course, one can explore the matter in depth, mindful, however, that to whatever extent rational argument and empirical analysis fail to persuade, the fact remains that actual experimentation is prohibited.  That is, the state does not allow free societies to be attempted for the simple reason that the state depends on the legalized theft of taxation for its existence.  And simply put, a successful experiment in a free society would therefore threaten the state’s chokehold (for that is what it is) on humanity.

But as its chokehold is already being threatened (again, look around), we assert that the time is not far off when the state will be unable to prevent the necessary experimentation, including that which is based on the implementation of an actual social contract. For while “persons’ moral and/or political
continue reading





Latest Japanese Supply Chain Disruption Summary

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

By now the only homo sapiens in the world who don’t realize that the Japanese earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster will have profound implications on supply chains, inventory levels, profit margins, corporate bottom lines and broad economic output are Wall Street sell side analysts, who remain convinced that the Lemming view is the right one, at least until management teams start coming out, most likely in the upcoming week, and issuing profit warnings, conveniently blaming their declining profitability on Japan, the weather and other “one time items.” In fact, in the old tried and true mentality of “he who defects first, loses the least” and the even trieder and truer mentality of “never let a crisis go to waste” we may suddenly see a scramble of management teams taking advantage of the economic adversity posed by Japan to buffer their own declining margins, therefore buying them at least a quarter before the market realizes that the entire QE2 inspired “golden age” is now over. After all, one would be stupid not to blame an event which most will perceive as non-recurring, thereby eliminating its follow through to the top and the bottom line in future quarters and minimizing the impact on the stock price. So while corporate treasurers and CFOs are wording their press releases appropriately, which we expect will start hitting the tape as soon as tomorrow, here is the most recent recap of known auto and electronic-maker disruptions as reported by Reuters.

Following is a roundup of the impact of this month’s devastating earthquake and tsunami on Japanese manufacturers of cars and electronics.

Plant shutdowns in Japan threaten supplies to manufacturers across the globe of items from semiconductors to car parts.

Japanese companies are not only reeling from damage to factories and suppliers in quake-hit northeastern Japan but are also suffering from fuel shortages nationwide and power outages in the Tokyo area that are affecting production, distribution and the ability of staff to get to work.

AUTO MAKERS

* Toyota Motor Corp halted most operations at 18 factories that assemble Toyota and Lexus vehicles in Japan. It has restarted production of three hybrid models, the Prius, Lexus HS250h and CT200h, from March 28 at two factories but will suspend output for one day this week, on March 30. Toyota is making car parts at plants near its…
continue reading





Goldman On Ireland And Paddy Paper: “Expect High Volatility”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

When even Goldman’s summary update on Ireland, which conveniently ignores today’s news that the country may be preparing for a senior bondholder haircut and most certainly ignores last week’s dump of Irish paper by LCH Clearnet from the repo market), is unable to find much if anything good to say about Irish bonds it is really time to get out of dodge (not like anyone was still left in it). The kicker in Francesco Garzarelli’s just released analysis: ”With around EUR 30bn worth of senior bonds maturing in 2011-12 (40% of which is not already government guaranteed) and under continued reduction of funding efficiency of the covered bond program, rolling over maturing debt remains indeed one of the biggest challenges faced by the Irish banks.” Everything else is noise. Add to this the Portuguese government crisis, its own funding crunch, and the rapidly deteriorating German political crisis and Europe will be a very fun place over the next few months. In fact for once we agree with Goldman: “In light of this, Irish bonds [ZH: aka Paddy Paper] will continue to exhibit high volatility, in our view.”

From Goldman Sachs: Ireland in the Spotlight, Sunday 27 March 2011

Key announcements this coming Thursday on the restructuring of the Irish banks could also involve enhanced external policy support. If confirmed, this may lead to a reduction in the credit risk premium embedded in Irish government bonds, which is now hovering at the highest level since the crisis started (2-yr Irish bonds closed around 800bp over their German counterparts on Friday). Nonetheless, we are also of the view that the EMU ‘non-core’ sovereign market is heading towards an even greater segmentation between the small ‘outer peripherals’ countries (Ireland, Greece, and Portugal) and the higher rated and more liquid issuers, like Italy, Spain and Belgium. In light of this, Irish bonds will continue to exhibit high volatility, in our view.

The EU Summit came and went, as most market moving information (e.g., the upsizing of the EFSF, and the term sheet of the ESM) had been released previously. There, nonetheless, was some disappointment on Ireland, as a much anticipated reduction to the lending terms provided by the EFSF was not agreed upon. Instead, the decision was loosely linked to an ‘evaluation of the consequences for the financial support program’ of the planned restructuring of the Irish…
continue reading





As the Global Economy Trembles, Our Nation’s Capital Fiddles

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Why isn’t Washington responding?

The world’s third largest economy suffers a giant earthquake, tsunami, and radiation dangers. A civil war in Libya and tumult in the Middle East cause crude-oil prices to climb. Poor harvests around the world make food prices soar.

All this means higher prices. American consumers, still reeling from job losses and wage cuts, will be hit hard. (Wholesale food prices surged almost 4 percent in February, the largest upward spike in more than a quarter century.)

Even before these global shocks the U.S. recovery was fragile. Consumer confidence is at a five-month low. Housing prices continue to drop. More than 14 million Americans remain jobless, and the ratio of employed to our total population is at an almost unprecedented low.

So you might think our elected representatives would want to avoid a repeat of what happened the second half of 2010 when the fragile recovery began tanking. They’d certainly want to prevent a double-dip recession.  

You’d think they’d be creating booster rockets to counter these recessionary forces – freeing up more spending, exempting the first $20,000 of income from payroll taxes, imposing a moratorium on bank foreclosures, giving Americans another six months to file their income taxes, lending states whatever money they need to prevent more of their own budget cuts.

Think again.

Amazingly, the big debate in Washington is about how whether to cut $10 billion or $61 billion from the federal budget between now and September 30.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor recently stated the Republican view succinctly: “Less government spending equals more private sector jobs.”

In the past I’ve often wondered whether they’re knaves or fools. Now I’m sure. Republicans wouldn’t mind a double-dip recession between now and Election Day 2012.

They figure it’s the one sure way to unseat Obama. They know that when the economy is heading downward, voters always fire the boss. Call them knaves.

What about the Democrats? Most know how fragile the economy is but they’re afraid to say it because the White House wants to paint a more positive picture.

And most of them are afraid of calling for what must be done because it runs so counter to the dominant deficit-cutting theme in our nation’s capital that they fear being marginalized. So they’re reduced to mumbling “don’t cut so much.” Call them fools.

The U.S. economy is flirting with another dip at…
continue reading





Presenting “Things That Make You Go Hmmm”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

With David Rosenberg’s free economic updates soon to be a thing of the past, now that the Gluskin Sheff strategist has decided to go premium, it seemed there may be a large void needing to be filled in the economic commentary space. It appears said void may have already been filled, by Grant Williams, publisher of the fantastic Things That Make You Go Hmmm report which combines individual commentary and linked content in one delightful package, who after a brief hiatus is now back online and making readers go hmmm. Whereas Williams previously published within the editorial confines of bulge bracket wannabe Jefferies, he has since liberated himself (and his cynicism), and is now publishing, as he puts it, “under my own auspices and without any compliance filter.” Zero Hedge agrees that those are certainly the best auspices and the best filter. So for those for whom TTMYGH is a new summary, here is your introduction.

Hmmm Mar 27 2011





Safety on the Cheap

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Can we please agree that in the real world corporations exist for one purpose, and one purpose only — to make as much money as possible, which means cutting costs as much as possible?

The New York Times reports that G.E. marketed the Mark 1 boiling water reactors, used in TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi plant, as cheaper to build than other reactors because they used a comparatively smaller and less expensive containment structure.

Yet American safety officials have long thought the smaller design more vulnerable to explosion and rupture in emergencies than competing designs. (By the way, the same design is used in 23 American nuclear reactors at 16 plants.)

In the mid-1980s, Harold Denton, then an official with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said Mark 1 reactors had a 90 percent probability of bursting should the fuel rods overheat and melt in an accident. A follow-up report from a study group convened by the Commission concluded that “Mark 1 failure within the first few hours following core melt would appear rather likely.”

Sound familiar?

The National Commission appointed to investigate the giant oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico last April recently concluded that BP failed to adequately supervise Halliburton Company’s work on installing the well.

This was the case even though BP knew Halliburton lacked experience testing cement to prevent blowouts and hadn’t performed adequately before on a similar job. In short: Neither company bothered to spend the money to ensure adequate testing of the cement.

Nor did Massey Energy spend the money needed to ensure its mines were safe.

And so on.

Don’t get me wrong. No company can be expected to build a nuclear reactor, an oil well, a coal mine, or anything else that’s one hundred percent safe under all circumstances. The costs would be prohibitive. It’s unreasonable to expect corporations to totally guard against small chances of every potential accident.

Inevitably there’s a tradeoff. Reasonable precaution means spending as much on safety as the probability of a particular disaster occurring, multiplied by its likely harm to human beings and the environment if it does occur.

Here’s the problem. Profit-making corporations have every incentive to underestimate these probabilities and lowball the likely harms.

This is why it’s necessary to have such things as government regulators, why regulators must be independent of the industries they regulate, and why regulators need enough resources to enforce the…
continue reading





Billionaire self-pity and the Koch brothers

By GLENN GREENWALD, Salon

Since the financial crisis of 2008, one of the most revealing spectacles has been the parade of financial elites who petulantly insist that they are the victims of societal hostility:  political officials heap too much blame on them, public policy burdens them so unfairly, the public resents them, and — most amazingly of all — President Obama is a radical egalitarian who is unprecedentedly hostile to business interests.  One particularly illustrative example was the whiny little multi-millionaire hedge fund manager (and CNBC contributor), Anthony Scaramucci, who stood up at an October, 201o, town hall meeting and demanded to know:  "when are we going to stop whacking at the Wall Street pinata?"

The Weekly Standard now has a very lengthy defense of — including rare interviews with — Charles and David Koch, the libertarian billionaires who fund everything from right-wing economic policy, union-busting, and anti-climate-change advocacy to civil liberties and liberalized social policies — though far more the former goals than the latter.  In this article one finds the purest and most instructive expression of billionaire self-pity that I think I’ve ever seen — one that is as self-absorbed and detached from reality as it destructive.  It’s really worth examining their revealed mindset to see how those who wield the greatest financial power (and thus the greatest political power) think of themselves and those who are outside of their class.

I’m not someone who sees the Koch Brothers as some sort of unique threat.  I mostly regard them as little more than a symbol of the death of democratic values in the U.S. — the way in which the possession of vast financial resources is an absolute prerequisite to making any impact on the national political process, and conversely, how those without such resources are politically inconsequential and impotent (short of their fomenting serious social unrest).  Every political movement needs demons lurking behind every problem — the more hidden and omnipotent the better — and the Koch Brothers now serve the same function for the Left as George Soros long served for the Right:  the bogeymen who motivate the loyalists and on whom everything bad, including political losses, can be blamed.  

Read more here: Billionaire self-pity and the Koch brothers – Wall Street – Salon.com.





Latest And Greatest Tsunami Video

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Yet another clip of the March 11 tsunami advent has emerged and this one could be by far the most jarring. Nothing but the brute force of nature here. And this is what central planners believe can be papered over with a few trillions monetary ones and zeroes?


New Shocking Video Of The Japanese Tsunami by timbarracuda

h/t Morten





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Conrad Black: The Saudis Fear Western Alliance With Iran; Crashing Oil Is Their Retaliation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Conrad Black via The National Post,

Responses to the decline in world oil prices have been mystifying — flummoxing, in fact. The secretary general of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), Abdullah Al-Badri, said last week that speculation was to blame for the decline by 15% since the last increase in production. He ceremoniously denied that there was any attempt by the cartel to discourage production from shale or oil sands, or to put politi...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Maybe Oil Goes to $70 on its Way to $40

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds

A retrace that fills open gaps and kisses the 50-day moving average surprises everyone who was confident oil was heading straight down to $40/barrel.

When the conventional media ordains oil inevitably dropping to $40/barrel, I start looking for something else to happen--like oil going to $70/barrel. There are number of reasons this isn't as farfetched as it might seem at the moment.
  1. The huge gap begging to be filled on the chart of the Energy Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLE and a bunch of other energy-sector stocks and etfs. Gaps like this usually get filled sooner rather than later.
 

2. A bounce back to the 50-day moving average on the WTI oil index around $73 would be unsurprising. As the old sayi...



more from Ilene

Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



more from Pharmboy

Chart School

Can you make a living trading Springs and UpThrusts?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

We tell the truth about trading springs and upthrusts, no holding back!

More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net Investing Quote...

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…

Richard D. Wyckoff
.."Markets are constantly in a state of unce...



more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Insider Scoop

#PreMarket Prep Guest List For The Week Of December 22, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Brian Kelly, Curtis Erickson and Jerremy Newsome will all be guests on this shortened week of Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep broadcast, sponsored by Nadex.

Be sure to tune in at 8:00 am EST Monday-Friday here to tune in to the exciting show.

Don’t miss our #FedForecast2015 event either!

You can learn more about that here.

Monday, December 22, 8:35 a.m.

Jonathan Corpina (...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



more from Bitcoin

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



more from Sabrient

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

more from SWW

Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



more from Caitlin

Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



more from Paul

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>