Archive for 2011

TLT testing key short-term support.

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

TLT has rallied off of support and broke above its falling wedge at (1), with a test of its new rising channel support line taking place at (2).

Game Plan…Remail long TLT after a purchase at (1).  Will “harvest” the TLT position on a break of support at (2) by 1%.





60 Minutes Overtime | Mortgage Mess: Who Really Owns Your Mortgage?

Courtesy of 4closureFraud

Mortgage mess: Who really owns your mortgage?

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Do you know who really owns your mortgage? As Scott Pelley reports on “60 Minutes” this week, that question has become a nightmare for many homeowners since the invention of mortgage-backed securities. Yes, those were the exotic investments that sparked the financial collapse in this country. And the’re still causing problems.

As it turns out, Wall Street cut corners when it bundled homeowners’ mortgages into securities that were traded from investor to investor. Now that banks are foreclosing on people, they’re finding that the legal documents behind many mortgages are missing. So, what do the banks do? As Pelley explains in this video, some companies appear to be resorting to forgery and phony paperwork in what looks like a nationwide epidemic.

Even if you’re not at risk of foreclosure, there could be legal ramifications for a homeowner if the chain of title has been lost. Watch the “60 Minutes” report and listen to Pelley’s discussion with “60 Minutes Overtime” editor Ann Silvio about the findings of his reporting team.

Watch Scott Pelley’s report.

Have you contacted your mortgage servicing company to find out whether your mortgage has been bundled and sold? Did you get a clear answer and a copy of your mortgage paperwork to back it up?

www.4closureFraud.org





Did The Economy Stop Blowing Jobs?

Courtesy of MoneyMcbags

The big news in the market on Friday was the release of the (No) Labor Department’s NFP Jobs Report (more commonly known as the Labor Force Participation Rate Report, or fiction) which showed the ponzeconomy™ added 216k jobs in March which was enough for the administration to pat themselves on their well insured backs and head to their local church to celebrate.  So break open the Dom, dish out the beluga, and try not to look the 13.5MM unemployed people in the eyes (or the additional ~10MM U6 fucking unemployed people), because at this rate the ponzeconomy™ will be back to full employment just around the time Bernie Madoff gets out of prison or when former Bush economic adviser Glenn Hubbard‘s sex change is finally complete (he was a woman at one point right?  Or is he just trying to crack this list?).

 

Money McBags would like to break down the jobs report with brilliant insight, unheard of prescience, and tons of boobs (as he did last month), but the story is exactly the fucking same.  No really, Money McBags could simply cut and paste this month’s numbers into last month’s column, rinse, repeat, and be done so he can spend his time building out his library and celebrating India’s victory in the Cricket World Cup, but he knows his readers have spent their hard earned dignity clicking over to the award winning When Genius Prevailed and demand new material, so Money McBags will do his best to polish this turd.

 

1.  It’s the math, stupid.  Just taking a step back and looking at the numbers in aggregate helps you realize the spin being put on them is more absurd than Don Quixote (though thankfully shorter) or a she-male who is in to chicks.  It doesn’t take Daniel Bernoulli, Grigori Perelman, or Patricia Heaton to see that the unemployment rate going from 9.77% to 8.83% since November while an aggregate ~725k jobs were added to the ponzeconomy™ makes less sense than supply side economics (or any economics for that matter).

 

There were 15MM unemployed people in November, which is now down to 13.5MM, but as we just saw, only ~725k jobs were added, so um, something smells fishier than Cy Waits schlong.  Shit, remember that in January a headline 50k jobs…
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Sola Dosis Facit Venenum?

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis

Via Pension Pulse.

When I was studying at McGill University, I wasn’t sure what I wanted to do in life so I majored in economics, minored in mathematics and took a bunch of health science courses as electives just in case I wanted to follow my father, brother and friends into medicine. That meant a full year of organic chemistry, biochemistry and physiology. For my intellectual stimulation, I audited Charles (Chuck) Taylor’s courses in political philosophy. He’s the greatest professor I ever had, a true genius.

My friends thought I was nuts, a masochist who was biting off more than he can chew. They were right but I didn’t care. I never obtained the perfect grades needed to apply to medical school because rogue memorization of biochemical pathways just bored me to death. So I went on to finish my Master’s in Economics as I was more comfortable with macroeconomics (even though the stuff they teach students in university isn’t what I call hands-on economic and financial analysis; it’s way too theoretical, almost entirely based on mathematical theorems).

I ended up getting an “A” in my Master’s thesis criticizing the literature on growth empirics (see my comment on Galton’s Fallacy and the Myth of Decoupling). I was proud of that accomplishment because at that time (1997) I got diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) at the age of 26 and had to take some time off from writing my thesis. I went through a tough period where I withdrew from my family and friends and spent all my time at the McGill medical school scouring over all the articles on MS I could find. I wanted to know everything: the good, the bad and the downright ugly.

This lasted for a couple of months but at one point I got sick and tired of reading articles on MS and decided to get on living my life. I did, however, learn a lot about MS and diet which led me to Ashton Embry’s wonderful site, Direct-MS.org. It’s there that I learned about nutritional strategies and the importance of vitamin D3 supplementation. Ashton and I have kept in touch ever since.

I don’t follow or endorse any MS diet but I do believe in eating properly and high dose vitamin D, which is something I referred to a few times in my blog.…
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Forget David Sokol, Is The SEC About To Tell Charlie Munger To “Suck It In”?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

On March 31st, David Sokol appeared on CNBC Squawk Box (to the most distraught Becky Quick we have ever seen) in an attempt to explain why his purchase of of Lubrizol Corp, prior to Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of the Company, was perfectly acceptable. In attempting to provide evidence of this“perfectly acceptable” practice David Sokol said a curious thing (17 minutes 15 seconds in):

I don’t believe I did anything wrong. Charlie Munger owned 3% of BYD before he asked me to go look at it.

Because we all know if everyone is doing it, then it isn’t illegal or unethical. Especially if everyone is a member of the Berkshire inner circle. But if the SEC as is now widely reported, is about to make a public spectacle out of David Sokol (if not actually press civil charges because, well, the SEC doesn’t actually pursue large scale securities fraud), shouldn’t they be looking at ole’ Charlie “Suck It In” Munger?

The Prestory

In September of 2008 MidAmerican Energy (a company controlled by Berkshire), bought 225 million shares of BYD (10%) at a cost of $230 million. On February 27, 2010, according to the WSJ, Buffet valued this stake at $1.99B. Since that time the stock has fallen about 60% and we would roughly value MidAmerica’s stake at $852M. A nice 370% gain since the initial purchase. Which means that Munger’s 3% is now worth about $280m. This 3% stake in BYD makes up about a little less than 30% of Munger’s $1 Billion total net worth . A not inconsequential sum, and significantly more valuable that the $13m stake Sokol had in Lubrizol.

Charlie Munger dispatched then loyal Berkshire lieutenant David Sokol to do the due diligence on BYD. But make no mistake, the purchase of MidAmerica’s stake in BYD was initiated by, and subsequently endorsed by, if not executed by, one Charlie Munger.

From Fortune:

Buffett, who is 78, was intrigued by Munger’s description of the entrepreneur behind BYD, a man named Wang Chuan-Fu, whom he had met through a mutual friend. “This guy,” Munger tells Fortune, “is a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch – something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to


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PURPLE RAIN? Fukushima Fallout Reaches the US

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY

Originally published at CounterPunch

Three of the six nuclear reactors at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have partially melted down and plutonium is seeping into the soil outside. Plutonium is less volatile than other radioactive elements like iodine or cesium, but it’s also more deadly.  According to Business Week, "When plutonium decays, it emits what is known as an alpha particle, a relatively big particle that carries a lot of energy. When an alpha particle hits body tissue, it can damage the DNA of a cell and lead to a cancer-causing mutation." If plutonium leaches into groundwater or pristine aquifers, the threat to public health and the environment will be extreme.

This is an excerpt from an article in the Guardian:
The radioactive core in a reactor at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on to a concrete floor, experts say, raising fears of a major release of radiation at the site. The warning follows an analysis by a leading US expert of radiation levels at the plant….

Richard Lahey, who was head of safety research for boiling-water reactors at General Electric when the company installed the units at Fukushima, told the Guardian workers at the site appeared to have "lost the race" to save the reactor…" ("Japan may have lost race to save nuclear reactor", The Guardian)
It also appears that underground tunnels at the facility have been flooded with radioactive water that contains high-concentrations of caesium-137. A considerable amount of the water has made its way to the sea where samples show the levels of contamination steadily rising. This is from the Wall Street Journal:
Levels of radiation in the ocean next to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have surged to record highs, the government said Wednesday, as operators try to deal with large amounts of radioactive water—the unwanted byproduct of operations to cool the reactors.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said water taken Tuesday afternoon from the monitoring location for the troubled reactors Nos. 1 to 4 had 3,355 times the permitted concentration of iodine-131. That is the highest yet recorded at the sampling location, which is 330 meters south of the reactors’ discharge outlet." ("Seawater Radiation Level Soars Near Plant", Wall Street Journal)
All fishing


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Thanks To 60 Minutes’ Report On Fraudclosure, US GDP Is About To “Soar” By $50 Billion

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Several days ago, courtesy of an analysis by JPM’s Michael Feroli, we quantified that the implied “rents” benefit to the US economy arising from squatters not paying mortgages is about $50 billion per year, or just about 0.4% of GDP. Today, thanks to 60 Minutes, this number is about to soar, because if anyone didn’t know before that paying mortgages is for suckers, now virtually every single mortgage borrower, and there are about 48 million of them, will think long and hard before mailing out the next mortgage payment. And if not all, then certainly the 11.1 million underwater mortgages will be one step closer to throwing in the towel on feeding the mortgage monster. Considering that 4.6 million mortgages are currently delinquent for 30 days or more, look for this number to at least double as everyone who is underwater says no mas to a losing game. Which of course is precisely what the banks want: consider that the “rents” benefit is about to double to $100 billion per year, all of which will accrue to the banking system first, then one can see why a $20 billion settlement deal is not a bad investment for the bank to generate a 2.5x ROI in a few short months.

Full 60 Minutes clip on Fraudclosure:





Sawdust, Shredded Newspaper, Diaper Chemicals Fail to Plug Leak at Japan Nuke Plant

Surprise! (Seriously) "Sawdust, Shredded Newspaper, Diaper Chemicals Fail to Plug Leak at Japan Nuke Plant"

Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan (R) speaks to an employee of the Tokyo Electric Power Co.(TEPCO) clad in a protective suit as he visits J-village, about 20km (12 miles) from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, at Naraha town in Fukushima prefecture, April 2, 2011. (REUTERS/Prime Minister’s Office of Japan/Handout)

Absorbent yet to soak up radioactive water at Fukushima plant

Workers tried Sunday to block the leakage of highly radioactive water into the sea from the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant by injecting polymeric water absorbent that can soak up 50 times its volume, but the water flow remains unaffected, the government’s nuclear safety agency said.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, meanwhile, told a press conference that it could take several months before radiation stops leaking from the plant, suggesting a lengthy battle ahead to resolve the crisis triggered by the devastating March 11 quake and tsunami.

Engineers put 8 kilograms of the polymeric water absorbent together with 60 kilograms of sawdust and three bags of shredded newspaper into pipes leading to a pit connected to the No. 2 reactor building where a 20-centimeter crack has been found to be leaking radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean, the agency said.

Read more here: Sawdust, Shredded Newspaper, Diaper Chemicals Fail to Plug Leak at Japan Nuke Plant | Common Dreams.





Goldman Capitulates (Again): Downgrades Q1 GDP To 2.5%, Sees Outlook For H2 As “Messy”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

No QE3? Really? Oh yes, Zero Hedge 1, Goldman Sachs (who can possibly forget Goldman’s shark jumping “New US Golden Age” report from December after all it took was one bad NFP print for Goldman to launch QE2 back in August?) 0 (here and here)

Just out from Jan Hatzius

1. With the first quarter now behind us, we have downgraded our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.5% from 3.5%. By itself, that’s not a big deal. Most indicators other than those that happen to go into the GDP bean count—in particular, virtually all business surveys and labor market indicators—continue to look solid and are probably a more accurate guide to the economy’s true strength. We believe that first-quarter GDP was held down by temporary factors, including poor weather and perhaps a bad draw from noisy data. Because temporary factors must eventually reverse by definition, this could mean a very strong quarterly GDP reading in Q2 (we are at 4%).

2. But the risks to our second-half GDP forecast of 4% also remain on the downside, and that’s more meaningful. We don’t see anything dramatic at this point, just a few weaker signals here and there. Gasoline prices are making new highs again, fiscal policy is starting to tighten a bit more aggressively, and a couple of indicators—specifically ISM new orders and consumer expectations—have softened a bit. So H2 is on downgrade watch.

3. The inflation news is also a thorn in our side. We still think the pass-through from commodity prices into core inflation will be very limited, and there is still a large amount of slack even after the 1-percentage-point drop in the unemployment rate over the past four months. But the core inflation data has clearly been a little firmer than we thought, with rent and owners’ equivalent rent leading the way. At some level, this sounds a bit odd because it’s hard to believe that the battered housing sector is a genuine source of upside inflation risk. Nevertheless, the risks to our forecast that core inflation will stay at 1% are on the upside.

4. Some Fed officials have reacted to the firmer inflation numbers by slightly hedging their earlier calls for continued accommodation, emphasizing that significant second-round effects and higher inflation expectations would not be tolerated, and implying that monetary policy may…
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Goldman’s History Of Borrowing From The Fed

Courtesy of The Daily Bail

Bloomberg reporter Bob Ivry discusses the release of the Federal Reserve’s discount-window lending records and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s borrowing history.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Clinton Campaign Mocks Trump Porn Cameo After His Sex Tape Tweet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In the latest bizarre twist in what has become the most surreal US presidential campaign, Donald Trump had an early start on Friday, when around 3am, the republican nominee tweeted about porn footage that reportedly exists of former Miss Universe Alicia Machado with whom he is engaged in a perplexing media spat (more on that later), drawing fire from Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Did Crooked Hillary help disgusting (check out sex tape and past) Alicia M become a U.S. citizen so she could use her in the debate?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) ...



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Phil's Favorites

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

 

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

Courtesy of The Fat Pitch

Summary: The stock market rises on days when the FOMC releases its policy statement, probably as a result of some uncertainty being removed for market participants. This pattern has existed for more than 30 years. The Fed's ability to "jawbone" the market higher is no more exceptional now than it was during any prior bull market. 

* * *

Morgan Stanley's chief economist this week stated ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Atlanta Fed trims U.S. third-quarter growth forecast to 2.4 percent (Reuters)

The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday, following the latest data on inventories, trade and consumer spending this week.

Satellite Data Show China May Have Stored More Crude Than Estimated (Bloomberg)

...



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Mapping The Market

Sad Clown

A thought from Jean-Luc:

Every day that goes by brings more shady deals from Trump's past – now Cuba, more stuff about his foundation, his taxes! No wonder he doesn't want to release his taxes either – who the heck knows is buried in there.

In the meantime, Trump gets up at 5:00 AM to tweet about Alicia Machado! What a despicable coward little man-child!

Atrios sums up my feelings:

Sad Clown

I admit I find it hard to keep up the sense of humor about things these days. We laughed a lot during the Bush years, didn't we, my fellow pony aficionados. Trump should just make me laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh. But with Bush we could sorta pretend that people voted for him because they didn't quite see him for what he was. There's no doing that with Trump. Trump is Trump. He won't win, but a lot of...



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ValueWalk

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

“If Hitler were to invade Hell, I would at least make a favorable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.” — Winston Churchill.

In Churchill’s estimation, Stalin was less evil than Hitler. Hence, the Allied Forces’ brief friendship with the Soviets: a marriage of convenience formed in Hell.

Image source: Wikimedia CommonsLOTE Dilemma The Right to Complain.

Every four years, Americans face the so-called lesser-of-two-evils (LOTE) dilemma: “Both major-party presidential candidates are lousy, but I’m duty-bound to vote. Free people get to co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting triple breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at Commodities ETF DBC over the past decade. Since the highs in 2008, DBC has been a great asset to avoid. Is it time to start paying attention and potentially own this hard hit ETF? Check out the rare price situation below in DBC.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The CRB (Commodities Index) has been down 5-years in a row, this has never happened in the history of commoditi...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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