Archive for 2011

One Ounce Of Religious Non-Money Tradition = $1700

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

And while the world’s reserve currency, better known to various Chairsatans as “money” continues dropping to record lows courtesy of his dollarcidal tendencies, the “tradition” also known as a “barbarous relic” just passed $1,700. We will be sure to point out when it passes $1,800, $1,900 and $2,000 next.





One Ounce Of Religious Non-Money Tradition = $1700

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

And while the world’s reserve currency, better known to various Chairsatans as "money" continues dropping to record lows courtesy of his dollarcidal tendencies, the "tradition" also known as a "barbarous relic" just passed $1,700. We will be sure to point out when it passes $1,800, $1,900 and $2,000 next.





So Much For QE2: The Market Indexed For Dollar Devaluation Is Now Back To Jackson Hole Levels

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the notional level of the market is still modestly higher than late August 2010, when indexed for that other component which everyone always forgets, yet which is an integral part of any net purchasing power calculation, the devaluation of the dollar, the S&P is now precisely at the levels at which Bernanke let QE2 loose with his Jackson Hole speech. Which means the time for QE3 has come. Of course, the notional value at the end will be that little bit higher, offset by yet another major drop in the value of the AA+ (outlook negative) US currency.





So Much For QE2: The Market Indexed For Dollar Devaluation Is Now Back To Jackson Hole Levels

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the notional level of the market is still modestly higher than late August 2010, when indexed for that other component which everyone always forgets, yet which is an integral part of any net purchasing power calculation, the devaluation of the dollar, the S&P is now precisely at the levels at which Bernanke let QE2 loose with his Jackson Hole speech. Which means the time for QE3 has come. Of course, the notional value at the end will be that little bit higher, offset by yet another major drop in the value of the AA+ (outlook negative) US currency.





China Enters Bear Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

That is all.





China Enters Bear Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

That is all.





The Farce Is (Again) Complete: Former Obama Budget Chief Orszag Says Official Economic Projections “Too Optimistic”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

And so the comedy circle is complete yet again after none other than former White House budget chief Peter Orszag throws cold water in the face of the White House, the Treasury and everyone else who has so far been so stupid to continue to deflect blame for America’s horrendous fiscal situation purely on S&P and its “colossal $2 trillion mistake.” Because if the guy who up until a year ago personally came up with the White House’s voodoo numbers is telling you they are full of shit (the numbers, not the White House), perhaps it does put the administration’s claim that it is all S&P excel spreadsheet skills that are at fault, in a slightly different light.

  • ORSZAG: OFFICIAL U.S. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ‘TOO OPTIMISTIC’
  • PETER ORSZAG IS A FORMER WHITE HOUSE BUDGET CHIEF
  • CITIGROUP INC.’S PETER ORSZAG COMMENTS ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION

In the meantime, as posted yesterday, enjoy the CBO’s far, far better predictive track record.





The Farce Is (Again) Complete: Former Obama Budget Chief Orszag Says Official Economic Projections “Too Optimistic”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

And so the comedy circle is complete yet again after none other than former White House budget chief Peter Orszag throws cold water in the face of the White House, the Treasury and everyone else who has so far been so stupid to continue to deflect blame for America’s horrendous fiscal situation purely on S&P and its “colossal $2 trillion mistake.” Because if the guy who up until a year ago personally came up with the White House’s voodoo numbers is telling you they are full of shit (the numbers, not the White House), perhaps it does put the administration’s claim that it is all S&P excel spreadsheet skills that are at fault, in a slightly different light.

  • ORSZAG: OFFICIAL U.S. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ‘TOO OPTIMISTIC’
  • PETER ORSZAG IS A FORMER WHITE HOUSE BUDGET CHIEF
  • CITIGROUP INC.’S PETER ORSZAG COMMENTS ON BLOOMBERG TELEVISION

In the meantime, as posted yesterday, enjoy the CBO’s far, far better predictive track record.





Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of August 8th, 2011

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio





Why The ECB’s Monetization Is Doomed In One Simple Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By now every Zero Hedge reader should be familiar with the two step process that is supposed to rescue Europe. First, the ECB will do more of the same whereby its SMP program will purchase billions in bonds, this time Italian and Spanish (after it already tried the same with Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds) for temporary stabilization. Then, the EFSF will take over, and acquire up to the entire outstanding debt of all the PIIGS and whoever else afterward, with Germany ultimately footing the bill following the French downgrade from AAA which would make it an ineligible funder (and, hence, shortly thereafter: a drain). Well, the ECB is already pregnant to the tune of €74 billion. And shortly, this number will likely double, and taper out there in advance of the EFSF launch in 2 months. Yet as Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough demonstrates, the current ECB intervention has been nothing short of an abysmal disaster, with the ECB spending the abovementioned amount only to see average 10 Year peripheral rates double over the same time period. Alas, this is precisely what the chart will show once the SMP resumes and another €150 billion in worthless Italian and Spanish bonds is purchased (yes, none of our Centrally Planned leaders still get that IT.IS.ALL.ABOUT.CASH.FLOWS…. and far more importantly the lack thereof). Net result, spreads will likely double yet again, at which point Germany will say enough as the risk of cumulative 100% loss becomes non-trivial and the potential loss of up to 133% of its GDP forces Germany to close the curtains on the euro experiment. So prepare for a rip in bond yields tomorrow morning as the ECB goes hog-wild in secondary markets, only to be followed by a bleed wider in spreads first slowly, and then very, very fast.





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Climate Change And The Impact Of Laudato Si

By Confluence Investment Management. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Climate Change And The Impact Of Laudato Si by Bill O'Grady of Confluence Investment Management

Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Si. In this report, we will begin with our position on climate change, discuss the encyclical and try to measure its potential impact on the direction of climate change policy. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

Climate Change

Since we began writing the Weekly Geopolitical Report in 2006, we have mostly avoided discussing t...



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Phil's Favorites

Sentiment Measures vs. Retail Spending: Clueless Clues and Random Noise

Courtesy of Mish.

Economists Shocked

Economists were shocked by the plunge in the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index this morning, well below the any economist's guess in Bloomberg's Econoday Forecast.
The consensus estimate was 99.6. The consensus range was 97.0 to 102.0. And the actual result ... 90.9.

Consumer confidence has weakened substantially this month, to 90.9 which is more than 6 points below Econoday's low estimate. Weakness is centered in the expectations component which is down nearly 13 points to 79.9 and reflects sudden pessimism in the jobs outlook where an unusually large percentage, at 20 percent even, see fewer jobs opening up six months from now.

A striking negative in the report is a drop in buying plans for autos which conf...



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Zero Hedge

Drivers, Beware: The Costly, Deadly Dangers Of Traffic Stops In The American Police State

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“The Fourth Amendment was designed to stand between us and arbitrary governmental authority. For all practical purposes, that shield has been shattered, leaving our liberty and personal integrity subject to the whim of every cop on the beat, trooper on the highway and jail official. The framers would be appalled.”—Herman Schwartz, ...



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Chart School

Relief Rally?

Courtesy of Declan.

Big gains and a strong reversal in the Russell 2000 puts a potential bottom in play.  The Russell 2000 started the day below the 200-day MA, but then rallied to claim a spike low and a close above this key moving average. Small Caps are a key driver in trend cycles. The 'bull trap' from June is still dominant. and a push above 1,280 looks a tall order. but reversing the breakdown of the rising trendline at 1,240 is a different proposition. If it fails at this, then a swift return below the 200-day MA, and then some, opens up. And the long awaited intermediate term decline begins.


The S&P gained over 1% with a second bounce off the 200-d...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dollar gains against yen, but weakens vs. pound (Market Watch)

The dollar advanced against the yen on Tuesday as worries about China’s stock selloff abated somewhat, but the buck fell against the pound after the latest reading on U.K. economic growth matched expectations.

Some stabilization by Asian stocks prompted nervous investors to loosen their grip on the perceived safety of the Japanese currency.

The dollar USDJPY, -0.01%  was up at ¥123.73, compared with ¥123.24 late Monday in New York. ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Travel indicator being put to critical tests

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The American Economy is driven a good deal by the consumer.

The table below reflects that nearly 70% of GDP is based consumption.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The 4-pack below looks at consumption with a focus on the travel and leisure sector, by looking at Avis (CAR), Hertz (HTZ), Expedia (EXPE) and Priceline (PCLN).

CLICK ON CHART ABOVE TO ENLARGE

While many seem to be occupied by the news abou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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