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Archive for 2011

The Sun Chairman, What’s Future Is Prologue, And Why The Second French Revolution Is Coming To America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For our closing post of the day we once open the floor to Sean Corrigan who proves that just when we thought all historical comparisons to the current deplorable economic miasma have been used up, a new one springs up, this time perhaps the one most indicative not so much of the past but of the future. Indeed, if history is any indication, and it is, America’s catastrophic and untenable position is worse than even that of one Louis XIV, better known as “The Sun King”, whose rule set the stage for the downfall of the French monarchy and which ultimately culminated with the French Revolution of 1789. For arguably the best indication of historical parallels to the present, and yet another confirmation that there really is nothing new in this world, especially in the world of central planning of monetary affairs, we present the following summary of the practices of Louis XIV which is verbatim applicable to the actions of the current central planning cartel: “The administration of the finances appears to have practised a subtle and ingenious tactic… [and] by modifications in the monetary unit, attempted to influence economic phenomena. Changes… were made to prepare for the issue of loans or to audit the circulation of the treasury notes, or to regulate exchange, to modify the balance of trade… to effect a redistribution of wealth, to influence the price level of commodities, perhaps to attenuate economic crises and famines…

It may come as a surprise to some that the very same type of central planning that Bernanke, and his central banking brethren, are trying to inflict (and failing) upon the world, was the same that was attempted on so many occasions in history, most poignantly, and catastrophically in the late stages of the French monarchy. Needless to say the attempts by one man to control a far simpler French economy well over two centuries ago failed, yet ironically, not even then did the economy reach our current level of collapse. Which begs the question: how long until our own “Sun Chairman” finally forces the hundreds of millions of great unwashed out of their hypnotic trance following the realization that their “equity” in the great American experiment, their pensions, lifetime accrued benefits, retirement funds, and of course savings, have been completely wiped out, and…
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Guest Post: Bernanke Pledges To Screw Your Grandmother For At Least Two More Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Bernanke Pledges To Screw Your Grandmother For At Least Two More Years

“A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.” - Ron Paul

  

I wonder what goes through Ben Bernanke’s mind as he sits in his gold plated boardroom in the majestic Marriner Eccles building in Washington DC and decides to screw grandmothers in order to further enrich Wall Street bankers. He just pledged to keep interest rates at zero percent for two more years. Ben is a supposedly book smart man. Does he have no guilt or shame for what he has wrought? How does he sleep at night knowing he has created bloody revolutions around the globe due to his inflationary zero interest policy? People are dying because he has decided that an elite group of Wall Street bankers who recklessly brought down the worldwide financial system in 2008 deserve to be kept alive and enriched at the expense of the many.

He uses words like transitory to describe inflation. Even as the price of gold reveals his lies he continues to promote policies that will lead to the demise of the USD and our economic system. There is only one way to counter his lies – truth. With a corporate fascist government run by the few for the benefit of the few, telling the truth is treason as stated by Ron Paul:

“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.”

The storyline being sold to you by Bernanke, his Wall Street masters, and their captured puppets in Washington DC is that deflation is the great bogeyman they must slay. They make these statements from their ivory jewel encrusted towers as the real people in the real world deal with reality. The reality since Ben Bernanke announced his QE2 policy in August 2010 is:

  • Unleaded gas prices are up 45%.
  • Heating oil prices are up 46%.
  • Corn prices are up 71%.
  • Soybean prices are up 26%.
  • Rice prices are up 13%.
  • Pork prices are up 31%.
  • Beef prices are up 25%.
  • Coffee prices are up 38%.
  • Sugar prices are up


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Yahoo! Moving Higher on Business Insider Blog Post

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Time Warner Cable (TWC) is in talks to purchase Carlyle Group’s Insight Communications for about $3 billion, according to Bloomberg sources. A deal could be announced as early as Monday.

New York based Insight is the ninth-largest U.S. cable operator, with 680,000 customers in Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Carlyle took Insight private in 2005.





Time Warner Cable Close to $3B Deal for Insight Communications -Bloomberg

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Time Warner Cable (TWC) is in talks to purchase Carlyle Group’s Insight Communications for about $3 billion, according to Bloomberg sources. A deal could be announced as early as Monday.

New York based Insight is the ninth-largest U.S. cable operator, with 680,000 customers in Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio. Carlyle took Insight private in 2005.





At 50x Leverage And 2% Tier 1 Capital, Is SocGen Truly A Paragon Of Balance Sheet Invincibility?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The fact that European banks have just a tad more leverage compared to their US cousins has been well-known for quite some time. One need merely to look at the chart from our February 2010 post to see how American financial institutions stack up relative to European ones as a %-age of host country GDP. This issue came to a very violent head last week when market participants finally realized the painfully obvous, namely that even without direct Greek exposure (and there certainly is a lot of that), SocGen is simply not a viable business model for the long-run courtesy precisely of its tremendous leverage. And unfortunately, while SocGen’s CEO was quick to appear on any TV station that would have him and deny rumors of the bank’s viability, he had little if anything to say about the bank’s actual solvency and leverage. Alas, therein lies the rub. As the attached table created by Jean-Piette Chevalier demonstrates, SocGen is back at the leverage it had back in 2007 at just over 50x. As a reminder, not even Lehman was this bad when it blew up (and that excludes the beneficial boost from Repo 105). In other words, SocGen has a Tier ratio of 2.0%… a number which the bureaucrats at Basel will have no choice but tell the bank must go up. And go up it will… assuming SocGen can issue €84 billion in new capital to pad its equity (on €19 billion of market cap… mmhmmm). Of course, in order to raise capital, SocGen would have to admit that the market was, in fact, correct in its assessment that the bank was undercapitalized, which would then send the stock even lower, and so forth, chicken or egg style. While we doubt any of this is new to the market, we doubt the response will be one of buying euphoria. Luckily, the only thing that can send the price tumbling now is actual selling, as opposed to shorting. And as we all know, nobody could possibly sell stocks: after all it is simply the evil shorters who are responsible for every market collapse in history, never the long idiot money which never did its homework, and suddenly becomes the last bagholder standing and first to bail from what is obviously a disastrously…
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Eurobonds Ruled Out; Eurobong Still In Play

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Not even minutes after we finished ridiculing Springer/Die Welt‘s attempt at propaganda spin whereby eurobonds were actually presented as not only good for Germany, but about to be “instituted” (and fully expected the immediate response to be one of refutation via official channels), here comes the FT with the official denial: “Germany and France are ruling out common eurozone bonds to solve the bloc’s current debt crisis, in spite of renewed pressure ahead of a meeting of chancellor Angela Merkel and president Nicholas Sarkozy on Tuesday. Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, made clear in an interview with Der Spiegel, that Berlin remains opposed to such a policy. “I rule out eurobonds for as long as member states conduct their own financial policies and we need different rates of interest in order that there are possible incentives and sanctions to enforce fiscal solidity,” he said. So, uh, Die Welt’s prognostication that “The federal government is now willing, if necessary, to accept a Eurobond transfer union” is about, oh, 100% wrong? Oops. As for those expecting an announcement of a eurobond on Tuesday following the latest round of “emergency” Merkel-Sarkozy, we suggest you put down the Eurobong: “Senior French officials also played down speculation that any firm announcement on jointly issued bonds would be issued after meetings when Ms Merkel comes to Paris on Tuesday. “Eurobonds would require a much more determined integration of budgetary policy,” one said. “We do not have that today. It could be a long-term project, but you cannot have eurobonds and at the same time national economic and budgetary policies.” Translation: “there is this thing called elections coming, and some of us career politicians, who have no idea how to do anything actually valuable for society, and still have not plundered enough in the form of bribers, pardon, lobby money, are not insane enough to propose that German and France foot the bill for the entire European bailout.” Even though that is precisely what they will do via the EFSF. And we certainly expect yet another round of eurobond rumors the next time the EURUSD tumbles by 200 pips in the span of 10 minutes (which courtesy of the broken FX market as described by Sean Corrigan earlier, is roughly every several hours).

More from the FT:


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The Four Bad Bears: Another Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

During the Great Financial Crisis, I updated this chart series on a daily basis. I retired it over a year ago but have posted occasional updates on request. With the market selloff of the past few weeks, I continue to receive frequent requests for updates.

So, here again are the Four Bad Bears.


 

Click to View Click for a larger image

 

Since inflation is a favorite topic on this website, I’ve also updated a set of charts to facilitate a comparison of the nominal and real declines. See also my logarithmic scale view of the “Four Bad Bears” comparison.

For charts of S&P 500 bear market and recoveries since 1950, see this series.

 

Click to View Click for a larger image

 

For a better sense of how these cycles figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets, adjusted for inflation, in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 






Guest Post: The Market From The Eyes Of An 8 Year Old

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Peter Tchir of TF Capital Markets

The Market From The Eyes Of An 8 Year Old

After two incredibly volatile weeks, where more Americans now know the ticker symbol for Gold (GLD) than its Periodic Table Symbol (AU), I’m just not sure what to write.  Trying to make sense of it all is hard enough, and by this time on a Sunday, what hasn’t already been written?  I guess I could have tried to write something title “Circular reasoning and cognitive dissidence in the markets” , but that seemed fairly complex.  Instead, maybe looking at the past couple of weeks through the eyes of a child, is a better idea. 

Son:  Dad, do you FINALLY have time to go fishing?

Me:  Sure, sorry about this week, but it’s been just crazy in the markets.

Son: Sure, but you always say that.

Me:  No, really, it has been crazy ever since the debt ceiling weekend.

Son:  Debt ceiling weekend? /raises eyebrows/  What is a debt ceiling?

Me:  It is a limit on how much the government can borrow, and the market was really concerned about it.

Son:  Ah, the market was worried we were borrowing too much?

Me:  No, that we couldn’t borrow more to pay our debts.

Son:  How is borrowing more the same as paying debts?

Me:  It’s complicated, but we needed to borrow more or else we might have been downgraded.

Son:  What’s a downgrade?

Me:  Its something the rating agencies do, you don’t need to worry about it, since its complicated.  But anyways we raised the limit and could borrow more, so everyone should have been happy.

Son:  Don’t you tell me to save and not borrow?  That borrowing for stuff you don’t need is bad.

Me:  Well, yes, but some people think that it’s different for governments than people or families.

Son:  But why is it good for me to save, but bad for the government to save?

Me:  You wouldn’t understand.

Son:  Okay, so what happened.

Me:  Well, one of the rating agencies downgraded us.

Son:  For taking on more debt?

Me:  No, because our politicians can’t agree.

Son:  Don’t you always say politicians never agree?  And what does that have to do with debt?

Me:  It’s all complicated, someday maybe you will understand, but then it got…
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The Media Admits To Ignoring Ron Paul

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Why? Because if "the unelectable one" were to become president, the financial kleptocratic, oligarchic status quo, which just so happens is the big legacy media’s biggest advertising base, would be wiped out overnight. Next up: big media becomes very small media. The clip below from CNN explains it all.

As for the reason why Bachmann took first, one picture speak a thousand words:

h/t John and Travis





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Frontrunning: November 26

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

  • National Guard, police curb Ferguson unrest as protests swell across U.S. (Reuters)
  • Ferguson Reaction Across U.S. Shows Complex Racial Split (BBG)
  • Democratic senator Schumer: Democrats Screwed Up By Passing Obamacare In 2010 (TPM)
  • Veto threat derails Reid tax deal (Hill)
  • Justice Department Inve...


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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages I track after the close of the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling "invested" -- unchanged from last month. Two of the five of the Ivy Portfolio ETFs, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) and the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC, are signal "cash" -- also unchanged from last month.

If a position is less than 2% from a signal, it is highlighted in yellow.


Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, ...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Tuesday November 25, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Tuesday November 25, 2014:

Visteon Confirms Discussions with Hahn & Co. Regarding Potential Sale of Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp Stake

The Talks:
Visteon Corporation (NYSE: VC) confirmed Tuesday, it is currently engaged in discussions with Korea's Hahn & Company regarding a potential sale of Visteon's ownership interest in Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp.

to the private equity firm. Reuters reported on Sunday, that Visteon was preparing to sell its 69.99% stake in Halla Viste...



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Phil's Favorites

Merkel Will Blink First, Not Putin

Courtesy of Mish.

The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea.
Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD) chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the annexation as a way to help resolve the Ukraine crisis.

Platzeck, 60, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper: "A wise man changes his mind - a fool never will... The annexation of Crimea must be retroactively arranged under international law so that it's acceptable for everyone."

Platzeck, Brandenburg's popular state premier from 2002 to 2013, struck a nerve in eastern Germany where there is far less support for sa...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Holiday fever takes hold of stock investors, but a pullback is needed

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s interest rate cut. Yes, all systems are go for U.S. equities as there really is no other game in town. But nothing goes up in a straight line, not even during the holidays, so a near-term market pullback would be a healthy way to prevent a steeper correction in January.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based Sector...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin Mining

Courtesy of Global Economic Intersection

By Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In June 2014, the mining pool Ghash.IO briefly controlled more than half of all mining power in the Bitcoin network, awakening fears that it might attempt to manipulate the blockchain, the public record of all Bitcoin transactions. Alarming headlines splattered the blogosphere. But should members of the Bitcoin community be worried?

Miners are members of the Bitcoin community who engage in a proce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of November 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.

...

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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Option Review

Yamana Gold call options sink

Yamana Gold call options sink

By Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers

A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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