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Archive for 2011

“Technical Glitch” Takes Down Australian Stock Exchange

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

After last week we saw the Euronext, the Italian and the London Stock Exchanges crashing and burning, it is now Australia’s turn. According to the ASX, the exchange is “currently experiencing technical difficulties regarding trade dissemination on Partition 3 Securities” which in non-binary means the prices on the ASX are not updating. Must be all that pent-up buying pressure over the continuing Libyan revolution… Of course, those who only trade the futures, such as the big banks and the quant desks are immune as futures are still trading without a glitch. How long before the threat of a racist, unpatriotic down print takes down the Nikkei, the Shanghai Composite, and finally the Deutsche NYSE? Luckily, the Nasdaq where only C-grade vacuum tubes trade any longer, will be spared.

 





Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short

Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages before the market opens on the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 monthly moving averages are giving the “invested” signal.

Note: The index updates are intended to illustrate the moving moving-average timing strategy. They also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, followers of a moving average strategy should make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not a broad index. Even if you’re investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard’s VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment.

The Ivy Portfolio

The top table previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio. It should come as no surprise to anyone following my recent focus on Treasury yields that IEF, the Treasury ETF, is only one teetering on the buy/sell threshold.

I’m also included the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests I’ve received to include this slightly longer timeframe.


After the end-of-month market close, I’ll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.

The bottom line, as we’ve pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They’re not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and thus far have captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.

Note: See the Timing Updates for interim updates throughout the month.





As Bloomberg Reporter Is Beaten Up In China, Wen Jiabao Promises To Crack Down On “Power Abuse”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

With violent protests springing up like mushrooms, following recent appearances in North Korea and Vietnam, and following last weekend’s failed attempt at a Jasmine Revolution, China’s authoritarian regime is about to be put to the supreme test. Bloomberg reports that “Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to punish abuse of power by officials and narrow the growing wealth gap as police blanketed Beijing and Shanghai to head off planned protests inspired by revolts in the Middle East.” In other words, beatings (and disappearances) will continue until morale finally improves. As for the beatings, Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle managed to experience one up close and personal: “Security officers also detained several foreign journalists, including Stephen Engle, a reporter for Bloomberg Television. The Wall Street Journal saw Mr. Engle being grabbed by several security officers, pushed to the ground, dragged along by his leg, punched in the head and beaten with a broom handle by a man dressed as street sweeper.” Yes, China may be the most repressive regime when push comes to shove, but should 1+ billion angry and hungry Chinese decide there is nothing all that unique about China compared to Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast, Vietnam, North Korea, Djibouti and countless more to come, not even the most convincing “blanketing” by police forces will do much of anything to prevent the only revolution that matters.

Bloomberg on China’s latest desperate attempt to deflect public anger:

The root of corruption lies in a government that has too much unrestrained power, Wen said in a two-hour online interview with citizens yesterday. He promised to curtail food costs and tackle surging property prices. Wen also cut economic growth targets and said the government would focus on ensuring the benefits of expansion were more evenly distributed.

Wen’s comments came as hundreds of police deployed in Beijing and Shanghai at the site of demonstrations called to protest corruption and misrule. At least seven people were bundled into police vans near Shanghai’s People’s Square, while in Beijing several foreign journalists were forcibly removed from the Wangfujing shopping district.

China’s leaders have emphasized the country’s economic successes in their response to demonstrations both in China and in the Middle East. While the country’s economy has expanded more than


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A Game 23% of America Does Not Need to Play

I survived the month, with around $500 dollars left over. Not enough food and two court appearances later, life’s probably good for another month, as long as I don’t have anymore health issues and speeding tickets. Oh, and by the way, can I borrow your washer and dryer? – Ilene 

A Game 23% of America Does Not Need to Play

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

North Carolina’s Urban Ministries of Durham has partnered with ad agency McKinney to create what I believe is a completely new kind of game – the "I’m a broke American and can hardly survive" challenge, SPENT, dares you to survive a month through car problems, bills, toothaches and near starvation (by our standards). 

Said UMD about the release
:

This latest adventure, Spent, is beyond what UMD could ever imagine. Spent is not just a social networking campaign, but an immersive online experience created and donated by McKinney. Raising awareness of the complex issues involved with poverty and homelessness and galvanizing the support needed to address those issues, are important components of our work. Our ongoing partnership with McKinney and their creation of this game are very important to us because they provide creative opportunities to engage new audiences and to enlist new support for the work we do each day.

They’ve also taken to foursquare, creating locations around Durham such as "dumpster in the alley" and "under the overpass" to bring awareness to homelessness. Interesting tactic.

So? Do you have what it takes to survive on nothing? Play SPENT here.  





Russ Certo Shares A Market Update At A Time When Fundamentals No Longer Matter

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Russ Certo of Gleacher & Company

Let it ever be said that America had no sooner become independent than she became insolvent of that her infant glories and growing fame were obscured and tarnished by broken contracts and violated faith, in the very hour when all the nations of the earth were admiring and almost adoring the splendor of her rising.

John Jay

A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from  the mouth of labor the bread it has earned- this is the sum of good government.

Thomas Jefferson

Rather go to bed supperless than rise in debt.

Benjamin Franklin

Uprisings in Africa and the Middle East last week trumpeted any and all global investment themes.  The hearts and minds of peoples against regimes played out on a global scale.  Crude ended the week up 9.1%.  CBOE Volatility Index, VIX, rose 15%.  Global equity bourses retreated a few percent with the U.S. outperforming by a marginal percent on QUALITY flight.

The Swiss Franc traded like GOLD as both assets also benefitted from safe haven flows.  The 30 year long bond was another beneficiary and its performance dramatically flattened the yield curve as investors translated the prospect of higher energy prices as an economic TAX and not a harbinger of inflation expectations.

In some ways there is a marriage of both global and domestic themes alike as the peoples yearn for representation and the embodiment of what government REPRESENTS for people.  Or doesn’t represent.  Played out on a minor scale, one eye this week was on Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, New Jersey and the battles of the hearts and minds of public and private employees alike or better quantified as the high profile and human debate of the efficient allocation of private tax dollars and the consequent rate of return of public service.  To oversimplify, it seems like the relevant and searching question everywhere in nation(s) is, how effective does government allocate public and private resources and consequently represent its peoples?

This is the looming topic in the United States this week as both sides of the Congressional isle try to avert a government shutdown as lawmakers have funded our domestic “obligations?” only through this Friday.  I guess obligation is a relative term.  Federal…
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Guest Post: Federal Reserve Carbon Footprint And The End Of Cheap Coal

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Joaquin Ferrer Benat of Qmunty

Federal Reserve Carbon Footprint And The End Of Cheap Coal

When analyzing the Federal Reserve monetary expansions, pundits only assess economic issues like inflation, balance sheets, bubbles or public debt. Significant as they are, it will be very useful that all this smart people were added to the camp of those who want to “save the planet”. Let me to try pin down it.

On January 27 OTC Derivatives Supervisors Group (ODSG) and major market participants met at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to discuss how to improve infrastructures and reduce risks in derivatives markets, supporting G20 objectives. They agreed to set out those plans in a letter to the ODSG by March 31.

We will continue to focus on increasing standarization and transparency, as well as the further development and innovation of central clearing facilities to reduce counterparty credit risk. We must continue to advocate for solutions that will extend central clearing benefits to a broader set of participants in a safe and sound manner.

These are the words of Mr. William Dudley of the New York Fed. But before the letter reaches its destination, the President sould take a look at this charts.

Direct relationship between OTC market growth, foreign purchases of US debt and China’s coal consumption is obvious. And of course also between the disorderly monetary expansion cheered by the Fed, american deficits, global imbalances and Asian country CO2 emissions. This chart is enough.

We are in luck, because ODSG wants to support “G20 objectives” and we can read the notes of an attendee of the 2010 G20 meeting. According to the documents, the delegates concluded that a process of fiscal consolidation would be the key solution to the crisis, involving country-specific ideas with central coordination. Although the delegates evidently discussed the need to address the sovereign debt crisis “through cutting expenses and not through increased taxes”, that statement is immediately followed in this attendee’s notes by the idea of introducing carbon taxes.

I have never bought “save the planet” lema, because to save something we need first to find the culprit and the fault. And in…
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The Dark Side of Freedom

By Dinosaur Trader, courtesy of The Reformed Broker 

"Dinosaur Trader is a stock trader. He writes about the daytrading lifestyle, parenthood, marriagehood and the often combustible mixture of the three. He created the stock blogosphere in 2007."

Zeke’s face was bright red. He seemed to be holding his breath.

Beads of sweat covered his brow and collected on his eyebrows. His keyboard looked moist. In fact, it seemed humid and wet all around him, as if he had created his own weather system. Dark clouds hovered. A large purple vein, not a normal feature of his appearance, was prominent on his neck and looked like a well-fed earthworm. His hair was pulled back, very tightly, into a ponytail.

From his lips sprang the same word, over and over again. "F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** F*** …” Moments later it morphed into, "They’re f***ing me." He was staring straight at his screen with his hand glued to his mouse. He was motionless. It was like he was bracing himself.

They sat me next to Zeke so I could learn from him. Zeke didn’t talk much, but I did learn from him. I casually looked over at his monitor. He was holding a couple thousand shares of VOD which in 1999 (before it split 5 for 1) was very volatile and trading over 200 dollars a share. He was down over 6 thousand dollars in the stock.

His phone rang.

He tried to sound calm as he spat into the receiver "It’s just this guy, he’s f***ing f***ing me." He hung up and doubled his position. In a few minutes he was down over 10 grand in the stock and the risk manager of the firm, a large man who looked more like a bouncer than a man who was crunching numbers in a back office, paid him a personal visit.

Zeke knew his time was up.

A short conversation between Zeke and the risk manager, a man who everyone simply called "Mr. Bill", ensued and then Mr. Bill watched as Zeke closed out his position. Moments later Zeke put his very expensive headphones over his ears, gathered up his very expensive coat and his desk belongings and silently left the room.

It was the first blow-up I had witnessed at close…
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JPMorgan Seeks To Buy 10% Stake In Twitter For $450 Million, As Dimon Tries To Copycat Goldman In Opening Tech Bubble Shadow Market To High Net Worth Clients

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The FT reports some disturbing news for lovers of free information everywhere: JP Morgan’s Digital Growth Fund is rumored to be in talks to acquire 10% of Twitter for $450 million, or a $4.5 billion valuation (for a service which we have yet to get confirmation is generating any more than token revenue whatsoever). “It is not clear if the JPMorgan fund will make a direct investment or buy out existing investors and shareholders with Twitter’s approval. But the fund does not intend to buy shares on the secondary market, the people said. The deal has not closed.” For those unfamiliar with the DGF, it is merely JPM’s way to copycat Goldman into “allowing” its high net worth clients to put their money into the latest tech bubble frenzy. “JPMorgan’s Digital Growth Fund was established this month to give rich clients exposure to fast-growing private tech companies, and follows a similar effort by Goldman Sachs to invest in Facebook. The fund has raised $1.22bn to date, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But it plans to raise $1.3bn in total, and will have a maximum of 480 investors, say the people. JPMorgan expects to earn commission of at least $13m from the fund.” And since none of these company are quite public, and all of them supposedly trade on a shadow secondary market, the frenzy for which bank can open up the tech bubble market to most high net worth investors, a race for now headed by Goldman with its Facebook investment, has certainly marked the tech top. One thing that is certain is that those who mostly enjoy using twitter as a free information conduit will now aggressively seek to find a replacement that is not backed, and thus at the mercy, of the Fed’s favorite bank.

More from the FT:

Besides the Twitter stake, JPMorgan hopes to invest another third of the fund in one other private web company – possibly games maker Zynga or telephony provider Skype.

The final third of the fund will be allocated among six other companies, they said – possibly to include coupons site LivingSocial, or Gilt, the flash-sales site. Twitter will be the fund’s focus. The company has 253m unique users per month, up 85 per cent from a year ago, according to venture


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Do Plunging Tax Refunds And Declining Tax Withholdings Predict A Consumption Collapse And A Subpar Nonfarm Payroll Number?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Almost a year ago, Zero Hedge looked at the trend in US tax refunds, and we found that last year the government was doing everything in its power to accelerate the remittance of refunds to taxpayers. Back then we said that “one of the primary reasons why consumers may have exhibited an abnormal propensity to spend in January and most of February (at least according to government, if not Gallup, data), is the much greater individual tax refunding conducted by the Treasury/IRS this year compared to the prior year.” But if accelerated tax refunds was the story in 2010, in 2011, at least so far in the year, it is precisely the opposite. In fact, to date the IRS has refunded nearly $20 billion less compared to 2010, and about $14 billion less than in 2009. With consumers suddenly having far less cash, does this mean that February and March are set to be major disappointments from a retail sales perspective, and any other vertical having to do with consumer “strength”?

Using Daily Treasury Statement data, we compile the weekly data for the first 13 weeks heading into April 15 (the point by which most refunds have been issued), and find that both average weekly remittance and 2011 cumulative refund issuance is running at a nearly 20% lower run rate than 2010.

Below we chart the weekly data for 2009-2011…

And cumulative:

For anybody but the Koolaid master at Goldman Sachs (who we are confident will have a rebuttal to our thesis within 72 hours), this is certainly a troubling development.

On the other hand it may simply indicate that US taxpayers have maxed out on their withholding exemptions, and as a result are due far less from the IRS, as we suggested early in 2010.

BNY’s Nicholas Colas has some additional perspectives on why a nearly 20% cumulative shortfall has developed between 2010 and 2011 refunds, as well as why tax withholding data indicates that the NFP estimate of +185,000 for this Friday may be woefully otpimistic. His observations below:

The logical question about this shortfall is simple: “Why?” There are a few potential answers that relate to both the timing of filing/refunds as well as the total amount that may eventually be refunded.

  • Incentives to file early have declined in 2011. The Homebuyer Tax Credit expired


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Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of February 28th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Chris Martenson and Mish Audio on Bank of Japan's Surprise Move on Friday

Courtesy of Mish.

Every other Wednesday or so, Chris Martenson and I get together for a podcast. Sometimes one of us or the other is out of town, and sometimes Chris has other guest speakers.

Because of scheduling difficulties, Chris and I got together today instead of Wednesday. I asked Chris to make today's podcast generally available.

For our take of Friday's BoJ surprise move, please play the audio on Chris' Peak Prosperity site: Off the Cuff: Japanese Central Bank Throws Granny Under the Bus.

The audio is about 25 minutes long. The podcasts are not scripted. Chris and I just talk "off the cuff" on events of the day or the week.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

...

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Zero Hedge

The Story Changes: Ebola Is Now "Aerostable" And Can Remain On Surfaces For 50 Days

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The End of the American Dream blog,

When it comes to Ebola, the story that the government is telling us just keeps on changing.  At first, government officials were claiming that it was very difficult to spread the Ebola virus.  Some of them were even comparing it to HIV.  We were given the impression that we had to have “direc...



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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on November 28, 2014

The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly gain of 2.32%. All three S&P 500 MAs and three of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "Invested".

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I've also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

For a facinating analysis of the Ivy Portfolio strategy, see this article by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo:

  • ...


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Market Shadows

When one door closes...

Predictions that the US equity market would collapse at the end of QE have so far been wrong (and in a very painful way if you shorted the market based on the Fed's actions alone). The end-of-the-world-QE bears failed to factor in another surprise move by the Bank of Japan. The BOJ announced its own QE program today -- it is donating $124Bn ($80 trillion yen) to the market-propping cause. It plans to triple the amount of Japanese ETFs and REITs it buys on the open market.

As  at Business Insider wrote on Oct. 26, If You Missed The Rally, Then You Just Made The Most Classic Mistake In Investing. Since then, the market continues higher...

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish conviction returns, but market likely to consolidate its V-bottom

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Bulls showed renewed backbone last week and drew a line in the sand for the bears, buying with gusto into weakness as I suggested they would. After all, this was the buying opportunity they had been waiting for. As if on cue, the start of the World Series launched the rapid market reversal and recovery. However, there is little chance that the rally will go straight up. Volatility is back, and I would look for prices to consolidate at this level before making an attempt to go higher. I still question whether the S&P 500 will ultimately achieve a new high before year end.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then o...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 27th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

(As usual, use your PSW user name and password to sign in. You may also take a free trial.) 

 

#455292918 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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