Courtesy of Doug Short.
Each Friday I post an update on the public release of data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Dwaine van Vuuren, CEO of RecessionAlert.com, and his collaborators, including Georg Vrba and Franz Lischka, have developed a powerful recession forecasting methodology that shows promise of making forecasts with fewer false positives, which I take to include excessively long lead times, such as ECRI’s September 2011 recession call (barring a future NBER announcement of a Q1 2012 recession start).
Here is Dwaine’s 1st estimate and alert level posted yesterday in advance of Friday’s ECRI’s weekly update.
| Monday 25 June 2012, 1st estimate : The Shadow WLI is 120.9 with a growth metric of -3.78. The lower estimate for ECRI?s posting on Friday 29th June is WLI= 120.4/WLIg= -3.99 and the upper estimate is WLI= 121.4/WLIg= -3.5. Since the WLIg is below its recession trigger of -2.6, we are at alert status DEFCON-3 since Friday 15th June. |
For a detailed discussion, visit Dwaine’s Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project on his website.
