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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 1,440 Edition – Again

SPY WEEKLY 1,440 – Again.

That's right, we have made not one inch of progress since we had the same exact title in last Wednesday's post, when I said: "This is the part where the MSM begins to realize that Manufacturing is slowing down, stimulus won't create jobs, earnings are not going to be as good as expected, Europe is not fixed, housing is not as strong as expected andthe stock market is being manipulated.  Yep, all the stuff I've been telling you for months."  Our plan was to buy into the dip and that's what we've been doing the past week as our short-term virtual portfolios are now much more bullish than they were a week ago.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's weekly SPY chart, we're still in an uptrending channel and still over the major support line at 1,420 and we tested 1,430 at the end of last week but have, so far, held 1,440 this week.  

Last week we were all worried about Spain because they were rioting in the streets and this week we are all worried about Spain because they haven't requested a bail-out yet.  "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose," as they say in the country next to Spain…

USO WEEKLY In Member Chat last Wednesday, we took advantage of Oil Futures (/CL) testing $90 to go long and by the end of the week it was back to where we liked to short it at $93 and this morning, ahead of inventories, oil is at $91.22 but we're not long today as we don't expect the bulls to have much to get excited about but, if we get a dip to $88.50 that holds – we'd like to go long there.  As you can see from this USO chart – we're pretty well stuck in the channel but the bottom is about $89 so I'm thinking a build this morning takes us just below the $33 line on USO

AAPL was at $666 last Wednesday and they closed at $665 yesterday but we've worked ourselves into a more bullish position there (we had several long-term bullish trade ideas on AAPL in Member Chat that day).  XLF was holding $15.50 and we went longer there – now $15.69.  We added QQQ Oct $70s at .30 and yesterday we had the chance to add them again after having cashed out that batch at .50 (up 66% in a week).  We took $9 and ran on the PCLN Oct $595 puts in our $25KP and that nailed the high for the week, TLT was at $125 (now $124.19), the VIX was at at 15.70 (now 15.71) and my comment on HPQ hitting $16.50 to Members was "WTF?" and I reiterated our reasons for being long on that one (now $17.15).  

Annoying as the past 7 days have been, as you can see from our Big Chart, it's really just a bullish consolidation along our resistance lines as we wait for the Dow to build up enough steam to hit 13,600 – which our Tuesday analysis of the Dow components ("Still Waiting for the Dow to Show Some Strength") determined should be possible but we're only expecting a 600-point run at most (4.4%) from last week's 13,559 as long as earnings hold up.  

That, we determined, is why the Dow was and is having so much trouble getting over the Must Hold line at 13,600 and we were so harshly rejected there on Monday that we fell all the way back to 13,400 yesterday before turning back up.  

This morning's ADP Report came in better than expected, with 162,000 jobs added in the private sector.  Of those 162,000 jobs, just 4,000 were manufacturing and 18,000 "goods producing" with all the rest coming from the service sector.  When I was in college 30 years ago and we used to talk about transitioning to a "service economy," I don't think anyone ever imagined it could get so extreme….

That shifts the focus back to Friday's Non-Farm Payroll Report, where we're expecting about 120,000 jobs to be added but last month was surprisingly weak at 96,000.  

Tonight jobs will be a big topic of discussion at the Presidential debate but, as you can see from this chart, it's amazing that it's an issue at all.  Obama took office pretty much at the dead bottom of that trough and the improvements made since that time have been nothing but stunning but, for some reason, the Democrats allow the Republicans to take control of the narrative and act like coming into office with an economy that was losing 800,000 jobs a month was somehow Obama's fault – ridiculous!

Also ridiculous is the Romney plan to cut tax rates by 20%, which will reduce taxes paid by households with incomes over $200,000 by $250Bn a year.  According to the Tax Policy Center, If you leave preferential tax rates for savings and investing (e.g., long-term capital gains and dividends) untouched, as Mr. Romney has said he would do, that leaves only $165 billion of available tax expenditures that can be eliminated from this same group of high-income earners once their marginal tax rates fall.

That means there’s an $86 billion shortfall — the difference between $251 billion in tax cuts and $165 billion in potential tax increases on this high-income group — that needs to be accounted for somewhere.  By process of elimination that somewhere must be the rest of the population, the 95 percent of households earning less than about $200,000 annually.  No wonder Pinocchio Ryan said he didn't have time to do the math!  

We're not expecting much of a move in the markets until after the debate because fiscally irresponsible nonsense like this scares a lot of investors – and rightly so.  We also face headwinds from the BOJ having a Yentervention as they try to weaken the Yen by buying Dollars this morning.  Already, at 8:45, the Dollar is back over 80 and the Yen is at 78.39, up from 78 yesterday and we assume they'll target 78.50 today and 79 tomorrow, which could bring the Dollar back to 81 if they are successful.  

That will put pressure on commodities and the good news there is that gasoline is plunging below $2.80 (/RB) and weak demand evidenced in the inventory report (any kind of build) could send us all the way back to re-test $2.70, where they'll likely make a good long.  Meanwhile, if the 2.80 line holds pre-market, /RB Futures make a fun bullish play over that line with tight stops below it as we don't expect the Dollar to go much higher from here (now 81.05) today.  

Tomorrow is a big data day with Jobless Claims, Factory Orders and FOMC Minutes while we wait for Friday's NFP report.  Earnings are not very exciting but next Tuesday is AA & YUM and then we're off to the races but today is most likely a watch and wait kind of day as we wait to see what nasty things Romney has to say about our "failed" economy – the one that's no longer losing 800,000 jobs a month with a stock market that's gained an average of 25% a year since Obama took office


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  1. stjeanluc

    Oil Lines

    R3 – 94
    R2 – 93.46
    R1 – 92.56
    PP – 92.03
    S1 – 91.13
    S2 – 90.60
    S3 – 89.70

    Yesterday's high and low – 92.94 / 91.51

  2. stjeanluc

    BBY – Apparently Schultze is preparing an $11 Bn buyout of BBY (Reuters). The current market cap is $5.71 Bn. That strikes me a quite rich… 

  3. aaronc

    AAPL –  Courtesy of my insomnia, some nearly useless trivia. AAPL has had only 1 down or "red" October since 1997 when Jobs retook the helm. That one red October occurred in 2008 when everything was melting down. We are currently down for the month and would need a close above 671 for history to repeat itself. 

  4. hoss18

    Mornin'  nothing like a quiet morning to enjoy studying up in my charts a little bit.  momma bear left early for work, and baby bear, well she fell back to sleep, busy week for a 4 1/2 yr old.  Anyway, so enjoying my coffee, hat tip to Rdn, and catching up.
     
    Interesting action in AAPL yesterday following the dip to 650.  Would like to see some follow through today, but will probably see lots of profit taking early on….currently have Nov 655 calls 1/2 covered by 680s.  May go naked if we hold 660 this am or fully cover if we break below 659 on volume.  Yesterday kinda felt like a little capitulation selling on e race down to 650, so maybe(stress maybe) a ST bottom in there?

  5. stjeanluc

    And there is also some PE interest in SVU again – it traded at $2.50 AH but it has gone back to $2.30.

    I am guessing that we will continue to see these rumors as long as the prices are depressed.

  6. Pharmboy

  7. Pharmboy

    BBY/StJ – including debt and cash, that makes it about $8B, so a 23% premium for here.  They could unload real estate, but how much is that worth in the scheme of things.  I hear they are also trying to sell the Geek Squad, so there is an additional injection of cash.

  8. stjeanluc

    BBY / Pharm – So basically he is willing to pay abut $21/share… They release earnings on 10/20. I am curious to see what happens then.

  9. scottmi

    Gold - Louise Yamada with some squiggly line stuff re gold and silver.

  10. 1020

    Good Morning!

  11. aaronc

    /DX – Dollar acting happy here over 80. But really strong fib resistance at this level. Gold and Silver holding their own in spite of dollar strength. Incidentally both the metals have triggered the "golden cross"  signal (50dma crossing over 200dma) while the dollar looks to be inching closer to triggering a "death cross" (opposite of golden).  Of course, the fact that these trends are helping my positions almost guarantees that they will reverse!

  12. morxlntway

    go PLX.

  13. 1020

    This "War" has become outrageous – I'm not sure why assad is still alive….
    http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/03/14196625-aleppo-explosions-kill-at-least-40-syria-activists-say?lite&ocid=msnhp
     
    Oh yeah…I forget, "they" don't have anything "we" want…… :(

  14. scottmi

    AAPL – oh, who knew? took a dive because the iphone 5 doesn't fit in the Bose docks.. thankfully there is a solution.

  15. 2can

    Good Morning!

  16. aaronc

    Scottmi/GLD – Hey, we are totally saying the same thing. Err, except he is a world renowned technician and I just have insomnia.

  17. stjeanluc

  18. millcreek

    phil, tks for comeback on my pcln.  since it didnt close over 620 i will wait to see what happens.
     
    i had a bcs jan14 gdx 40-55.  per ur suggestion. i closed out the 40 and added a jan 14 57-63.
     
    so now it looks to me selling some shorter dated puts on gdx in the 53/52 area could be good to work
    off the prem on the 55 caller.
    what say you and if so would u rec weeklys 1 mon, 3 mon etc……tks

  19. Phil

    Good morning!  

    BBY very exciting.  We have the 2014 $15 calls ($4.10) that were offset by the sale of the $15 puts ($2.77) in the Income Portfolio and I still like that play if you want to gamble on BBY getting bought.   A buyout would squash the premium on the position and can lead to as quick a profit as the monthly options would except, if there is no buyout – at least you still have 16 months to hit your target!   

    Dollar holding the line at 80 but not going much further.  As expected the Yen ground to a halt at 78.50 after going straight up from 78.20 so there's the limits of that program run.  It's possible the BOJ hits the button again later – especially if they begin losing ground so we'll have to keep an eye on that today.  They managed to get 50 Nikkei points out of that move so, of course, they think it's a worthwhile venture.  

    AAPL back to our expected test of $666 but they must get over it or we're going to start worrying.  Also, same old levels as yesterday but let's take them seriously as they've been excellent indicators for us:  

     

    • Weak bounce levels are:  Dow 13,447, S&P 1,443, Nasdaq 3,104, NYSE 8,220 and Russell 838.
    • We're at———————--: Dow 13,482, S&P 1,446, Nasdaq 3,120, NYSE 8,295 and Russell 840.     
    • Strong bounce levels are:  Dow 13,494, S&P 1,457, Nasdaq 3,128, NYSE 8,264 and Russell 843

     

    Hey, look at that, the NYSE snuck over the top on us – that's a good sign.  Let's hope we get some support from the others.  

    If the dollar breaks back below 80, that can be helpful too but I'm not counting on that.  Nat gas got whacked back to $3.40, copper failed to hold $3.80 ($3.77) and oil just hit $90.50 so not much faith in global strength.

    ISM at 10 and oil inventories at 10:30 so stay on your toes!  

    At the open: Dow +0.03% to 13486. S&P +0.16% to 1442. Nasdaq +0.37% to 3132.

    Treasurys: 30-year -0.01%. 10-yr -0.01%. 5-yr -0.17%.

    Commodities: Crude -1.53% to $90.48. Gold +0.24% to $1780.15.

    Currencies: Euro -0.12% vs. dollar. Yen +0.38%. Pound +0.20%.

    Market preview: Stock futures tick higher after the ADPjobs report pleasantly surprises, although don't expect it to say much about what the non-farm data will be like on Friday. The S&P Benchmark is +0.1%. MetroPCS -0.5% following confirmation that it'smerging with T-Mobile USA, while Best Buy is +3.4% on speculation that Richard Schulze and P-E firms are doing their due diligence.Later: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

    Negative earnings preannouncements (4 of them for every 1 positive release) are running at such a high rate as to bring back memories of the 2000-01 tech bust to Strategas Research. The market is stuck between easy money and lousy fundamentals, says Weiss' Mike Larson. 

    MBA Mortgage Applications: +16.6% vs. +2.8% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.53% from 3.63%

    AutoNation (ANannounces retail new vehicles sales rose 23% Y/Y to 22,982. The company's Import segment paced the gains with a 38% rise. 

    Is a railroad recovery in the offing? Bernstein upgrades a pair of railroad names, taking both CSX (CSX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) to Market Perform from Underperform. The firm's action hits with news out that the U.S. freight rail industry will invest $23B using private money for infrastructure upgrades this year. 

    Iran's main commercial hub has been shut as authorities attempt to regain control over the plummeting currency. "The unofficial currency market will be gathered up," says Economy Minister Hosseini. The rial has plunged to about 37.5K to the dollar from 10K two years ago, and 24.6K just 8 days ago. 

    With Wall Street in a mad rush to raise money to pile into the landlord game, a shift may be underway. Apartment occupancies rose in Q3 at their slowest pace in over 2 years as the home purchase market picks up again. "We are starting to lose renters to home purchasers," says Matthew Gardner. "As every rental project is increasing its rents … it gets to the point where owning becomes cheaper than renting."

    Why we need investment banks: New York's MTA needs about $20B between 2015 and 2019 to keep its system from crumbling, but has yet to figure out how to pay for it. The MTA is a major issuer in the municipal bond market and even scheduled fare increases won't keep its debt service/revenue from rising to nearly 20% by 2018.

    In addition to banks and regions, Spain includes a $32B bailout of its power industry in its 2013 budget. In an accounting move worthy of Enron, power companies for a decade have been allowed to book more revenue than they actually received, driving their accounts receivable – along with the liability side of the balance sheet – sky high. Now the bill comes due.

    Spain's attempts to cut its deficit are not helped by a slump in its corporate tax intake as international companies use off-shore shelters to reduce their payments and small businesses go bust. The intake from 1,400 firms last year was €16.6B, less than the €17.8B in net profit generated by five of Spain's top companies. In 2007, the intake was €44.8B.

    Monsanto (MON): FQ4 EPS of -$0.44 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $2.18B misses by $70M. Shares -3.7% premarket. (PR)

    More on Monsanto's (MONFQ4 results: In addition to missing its EPS and revenue numbers, MON issues downside guidance for FY 2013, seeing EPS of $4.18-$4.32 vs. $4.37 analyst consensus. For FY 2012, Seeds and Genomics sales were $9.8B, a 14% increase Y/Y; FQ4 sales in the segment were $1.2B, 10% lower Y/Y. MON -3.1% premarket.

    Beer shipments are on the rise for the first time since 2008 with the first eight months of the year showing a steady 1.9% gain. Though craft beers grab a lot of the attention, industry stalwarts Bud Light (BUD) and Coors Light (TAP) are showing gains with new varieties aimed at cutting into the appeal of niche beers.

    Shares of Best Buy (BBY) track 4.2% higher in premarket trading after indications are that founder Richard Schulze will press onwith a buyout bid with private equity interests closer to being on board. ValueWalk notes that it will be the P-E firms, not Schulze, driving negotiations and that Best Buy may take a deal with options running low.

  20. morxlntway

    PLX – musta been an etrade carrot. Was at 5.39. Oh well.

  21. stjeanluc

  22. stjeanluc

    AMZN – Closed positions have a P&L of -$6075 so our net on the put is $6.07 above what we paid minus what we get for the short puts.
    V – Net $1.42
    QQQ – Net $0.42
    AAPL – Net is about $24.00

  23. diamond

    Cobra: "I like gold pattern here, can be seen as a base and breakout setup."

  24. stjeanluc

    lflan – The short weeklies never made it to your BTC price yesterday so they are still open.

  25. Phil

    Arggggh!  Rejected at $666 and our strong bounces again.  This sucks….

    No volume at all (7M on the Dow at 9:41) so I hate to react so early but that was very annoying.  

    SVU/StJ – Sure because it's mathematically attractive at that price.  This is like when we kept buying CROX whenever they got low enough that it was stupid for NKE (as our example) not to buy them.  One of the best uses of funamentals is being able to call a bottom like that.  

    BBY/Pharm – Last year, they bought back $1.5Bn worth of stock and paid $1.5Bn in dividends and ended up cash neutral at the end of the year but showed a $1.2Bn loss in net income on $50Bn in sales.  When you run a retail operation on that scale – there's a lot of ways to hide the money, which is why Shultz is very interested and most people don't see it.  They only have $3.3Bn in debt ($8Bn in payables but that's normal in retail operation) and there's a lot of ways you can look to finance them as an LBO – especially if the buyers are able to restructure the debt at a lower rate and factor the receivables.

    Dollar/Aaron – That should be your biggest concern.  Not too likely the Dollar goes much lower from here.  Maybe back to 78 if Spain is "fixed" but one of these days the Dollar will find a reason to rally (aside from BOJ buying them by the ton). 

    Syria/1020 – It needs to be a UN thing and I guess they have bigger fish to fry with Iran at the moment.  

    AAPL/Scott – I do agree that I'm looking at the cost of a new Bose as part of the cost of getting a new IPhone.  In my case, I'm giving my 4 to Jackie and she then "needs" the Bose so it's more of an excuse to buy a better one for me but I can see other people maybe waiting a bit as they have investments in car adaptors and chargers and docks.  Don't think it will impact sales since they are massively back-ordered.

    You're welcome Mill – good call on GDX.  As long as you are comfortable, I'd sell the weeklies, the premium burn is amazing on those but don't be greedy, always leave yourself room to roll with partial sales and stops.  Keep in mind that, if things work out, you're selling 52x of the weeklies so you don't have to crush it every week to do very welll.

    LOL – I guess we were selling off in fear of ISM but it came in at 55.1 and up we go again.  Glad we didn't panic.  Business activity 59.9 is huge.  Jobs still weak but that's not news.  

  26. lflantheman

    stjeanluc….for the MoMo portfolio……BTC now the 7 Oct 665 calls for 5.70..   And a typo, the Feb 665 calls are not anywhere near 44.70.  You must have meant 54.70.  Thx

  27. Phil

    Wow, someone hit the sell button off that data.  

    $25KP – Last Wednesday we were -$5,000 (-$1,000 on the M) so it's been a decent weak – despite the annoyingly slow progress.  We have a lot riding on AAPL so I hope we get that right….

    TNA weekly $61.50s are a fun play at $1 as they were $3 on Monday and $1.95 this morning.  10 in the $25KPs.  

  28. Phil

    Wow, Oil not waiting for inventories to hit my target – $89.50 already!  

  29. davidkordack

    TNA Puts or Calls?

  30. lflantheman

    Look at NFLX popping.  I haven't looked for the news on it yet.

  31. Phil

    TNA/Davidor – My bad, calls but, of course the puts were never $1.95 in the morning or $3 on Monday.  Already $1.50 so a stop at $1.30 in the $25KP and a trailing .25 is a good rule of thumb otherwise.  

  32. stjeanluc

    MoMo / lflan – My bad… I have corrected the spreadsheet…

    NFLX – Good comments from an analyst at Citi this morning!

  33. stjeanluc

    Wow, S3 for oil is at 89.70 and we are below. Don't have an S4 so we better hold it there… I have a daily Fib at 89.19 and then wheeeeeee….

  34. silentstorm44

    I can not understatnd how CRM keeps going up!!  It is overvalued IMHO…

  35. lionel

    Pharm/ Zalicus buying on this dip?

  36. stjeanluc

    That Euro-zone Composite PMI is not pointing in the right direction:

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/10/03/1189261/passably-miserable-indices/

    Markit’s final eurozone composite fell to a four-month low of 46.1 in September, little changed from 46.3 in August, but slightly above the earlier flash estimate of 45.9. Business activity and new orders both continued to fall, job losses rose, and the rate of cost inflation moved higher.

  37. Phil

    OK, RUT just made 840 so we stop out of TNA in the $25KPs if they fail to hold it now (maybe $1.50) or avoid the stress and take $1.60 now for a quick $500.  We're bullish enough that we shouldn't be greedy…

    CRM/Silent – That one is a real puzzlement, especially with high unemployment – who's using it?  

  38. Phil

    Euro PMI/StJ – Not pretty but does look like it's done going down.  Generally the PMI does not give a false signal when it stops falling.  

    Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 55.1 vs. 53.5 expected and 53.7 prior (>50 denotes expansion). Prices index rose to 68.1 from 64.3. Employment fell to 51.1 from 53.8. New orders rose to 57.7 from 53.7.

    Oil down 500K, gas up 100K, distillates down 3.7Mb.  Nice draw – we won't see $88.50 so long at $89.75 on (/CL) with tight stops.

  39. Phil

    Oil failing to hold up already.  AAPL still stuck at $666 and TNA stopped out – be careful!  

    Let's sell 5 AAPL weekly $665 calls for $6.50 in $25KPs because who doesn't like $3,250 of premium?  We'll stop 2 at $8 and we can always roll the last 3 tomorrow so risking $320 cash loss to collect $3,250 is a good risk/reward.  

  40. 1020

    Phil/UN   I agree.  So why can't there be a couple of skyblue/white cruise missles sent to the assad residence?
     
    I guess it's more important to pay attention to sabre-rattling, than to the daily killing of civilians….. :(

  41. biodieselchris

    there is not much supporting CMG if it can fall that hard on a hedge-fund rumor…

  42. angelcur

      something odd going on with US sov cds…its up 29% in 5 days with most others down

  43. Phil

    $88.64!  I am so proud of my targeting skills!  8)  

    USO weekly $33 calls at .35 are a fun play as we'll probably hold $33 and maybe there will be a run back up.  

    SCO $44 calls also fun to sell at $2 as they are just too excited but tight stops on that one. 

    UN/1020 – Would be nice but not very UN-like.  Saddam had to kill several hundred thousand before the UN said "Hey!"  

    CMG/BDC – I have zero confidence in that company but I wish they would run up so we could short them around $350 again.  

    CDS/Angel – I'm telling you, people fear what Romney will say at the debate.  

  44. wappler

    Phil/CRM,
    Re who's using it:  Salesforce.com is all about managing sales leads and opportunities, so it is somewhat anti-cyclical in nature.  When the economy's good, products are flying off the shelf anyways, but when times are bad, every company needs a sales tool to analyze and manage their sales to get the last penny of revenue.  And Salesforce is the leader of the pack – others offer sales force automation as well, but they don't come even close.
    Of course, that doesn't mean the company isn't overvalued, but there are better shorts out there!

  45. lionel

    Phil/ Well done on CL!

  46. stjeanluc

    CDS / Phil – Maybe rating agencies have started analyzing the Romney/ Ryan tax plan and came up with the same conclusion as everybody else – it will increase the deficit dramatically over the next 20 years!

  47. stjeanluc

    Apparently sanctions work better than war and are much cheaper in the long run:

    http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/03/pre_debate_potpourri

    Hey, it turns out that the sanctions against Iran really are crippling -- so much so that even Mahmoud Admadinejad is admitting it and Benjamin Netanyahu now has sanctions fever.  Based on my own sanctions model, I'd predict that the sanctions are now becoming so costly that Iran will in fact be willing to compromise on its nuclear program — but any concessions will seem tiny compared to how devastating the sanctions have been. 

    Who would have thought?

  48. hemas03

    AMZN Weekly 250 short puts in $25KP:  profit now >50%

  49. hemas03

    StJ,
    in your table it says JAN 12 XLF Put i.o. Jan 13 XLF P.  Just in case you have nothing better to do :)

  50. stjeanluc

    Thanks hemas!

  51. shadowfax

    Stjl
    If sanctions worked maybe we can give peace a chance! Should give Obama a boost.

  52. lionel

    HPQ down 3%…

  53. jabobeast

    FU HPQ!!!

  54. 1020

    HPQ – I'll start to nibble around book value (16)

  55. stjeanluc

    HPQ now down 6%… The 2009 low was $16.65 and we are now below. 

  56. stjeanluc

    And now tough guidance for 2013…. That turnaround is going to take more time than they thought I think. Changing CEO 3 times in 2 years is probably not helping.

  57. stjeanluc

    HPQ / Phil – Will it make sense to look at rolling our HPQ puts in the Income portfolio? Based on what they are saying, 2013 will be a struggle so we might need to revise our Jan 2014 target.

  58. jromeha

    Phil, had a decent amount of HPQ plays getting destroyed today. How low do you see them going and was thinking of doubling down so curious what are bullish plays you like? Thx

  59. snow

    Sanctions/mild rant warning…..Those may be working against Iran, but sanctions are still war. They largely affect civilians, and can include things like medicine and food. An example where they aren't working is the food sanctions against North Korea, to get them to drop their nuke program. The government and the army don't go hungry – with shortages it's the civilians who starve. And there's a Korean cultural attitude called "han" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_%28Korean_culture%29) which essentially means Korean will endure through tough times hoping that the next generation will have it better. Han is a lot of the explanation behind the development of South Korea from the 50s till now, and it's also the reason sanctions won't work against North Korea.

  60. Inkarri19

    Hello All – Anyone follow/invest in L?  Any thoughts?  Thank you.

  61. rdn4evr

    Poor HPQ – Back in the '00s I used to consult directly for HPQ on disposing of their excess real estate; natch, we rezoned most of it residential.  At this rate, they're going to have a lot more excess real estate again.  At some point, this is going to turn into another Eddie Lampert Sears real estate play.  They owned a lot of property in Silicon Valley.

  62. Pharmboy

    Homebuilders going parabolic for all those that cannot afford a home at 3.5% rate and moving in with their parents.  Makes sense.

  63. Pharmboy

    ZLCS – DD again in here, yes.

  64. Phil

    CRM/Wappler – I never liked the package much but, as you say, leader of the pack – I wouldn't bet against them.  

    Thanks Lionel.  

    2 of the AAPL weekly $665 calls stopped out at $8 (down $1.60) in the $25KP so we effectively sold 3 for $5.50 now so we're good to $70.50 and the plan tomorrow is to roll to 2x whatever next weekly.   Meanwhile, the longs are back to $21 so, if the position had been making you nervous – now's a good time to lighten up! 

    Ratings/StJ – Yes but only if they get elected.  However, the voter fraud thing is very disturbing.  

    Sanctions/StJ – Remains to be seen but yes, they can be crippling if enforced properly.  

    AMZN/$25KP, Hemas – I'm pretty sure we'll collect 100% on those.  

    HPQ at $16 – WTF?  This is so silly. 2013 outlook they just gave is for $3.40-$3.60 per share so 5x p/e is $17 – even Dell gets a 6, IBM is at 15…  This is just a stock to hold onto long-term until it comes back in favor. 

    HPQ/Income Portfolio, StJ – Sure, we're going to roll them.  We have 20 short 2014 $23s at $5.75, now $8.30 but we have to wait for the 2015s to roll to.  The current Jan $23 puts are $7.25 and they can roll to 1.5x the 2014 $20 puts at $5.85 for better than even so your net collection on the 2014 $20s (assuming a $5.75 entry) would be around $4 and net $16 for 30 so that's about where I expect to be on HPQ once the 2015s come out.  .  

    HPQ/Jrome  - As above, they need more time and best thing to do is wait for 2015s to come out and then make adjustments.  

    Sanctions/Snow – Good point but you can still make it difficult for them to acquire certain things although, without China's cooperation, nothing works anyway.  

    L/Ink – They have an interesting mix of business (insurance and oil) and are a nice, steady company.  Not particularly cheap at $41 but QE is good for them.  From an options standpoint, they are not very liquid and don't have long contracts so no fun to play with.  

    HPQ/Rdn – That's interesting.  At just $31Bn for the whole company, it may actually be a factor now.  

    Builders/Pharm – Wow, HOV back to $3.81.  Damn and I was just looking at them the other day at $3.30 and decided to wait and see what happens this week!  

    Oil cannot get back over $89.50 (now $89.30).  Gasoline back at $2.80 after bottoming at $2.7538.  

  65. biodieselchris

    Pharm – did you have any SRPT?

  66. davidkordack

    Pharm/ did u see the question about buying Zalicus on the dip?

  67. biodieselchris

    my long term investing beats my short term all to hell. I just sold KBH Jan13 – 10 calls at 5.50 and I paid 0.75 for them.

  68. Pharmboy

    david … see above…. yes….I am DD, again.  My position was a smaller one in the beginning, so my basis is now 81c.

  69. rainman

    A vote of confidence:
     
    12:51 PM Corning (GLW) declares $0.09/share quarterly dividend, 20% increase from prior dividend of $0.075. Forward yield 2.72%. For shareholders of record Nov 16. Payable Dec 14. Ex-div date Nov 14. (PR) (Read the comments on this)

  70. occam

    Site that will buy your old Iphone
    http://www.gazelle.com/iphone
    I have no idea if they will buy your old Bose system.  But, you can ask!
    CRM – crazy, but January earnings, last year, they changed their accounting methods.  This January, they face that obstacle and MSFT hitting them on the low end, and ORCL hitting them on the high end.  But hey, they can go to 200 before Jan.  Before shorting, check out their YouTube Channel.  Customers (CNBC included!!) absolutely love them.  

  71. shadowfax

    Phil
    Then it might be the perfect time to put pressure on China. Their situation is way worse than they admit. Supply can't be China and demand USA, not even half the world. What has the world shown in the last 5 years? We must have balance.

  72. Inkarri19

    THanks Phil!

  73. 1020

    Why do sanctions sound alot like austerity when describing the effects on civilians?…..

  74. Phil

    10:00 AM On the hour: Dow -0.21%. 10-yr +0.01%. Euro -0.14% vs. dollar. Crude -1.94% to $90.11. Gold +0.23% to $1779.75.

    11:00 AM On the hour: Dow +0.02%. 10-yr +0.04%. Euro -0.14%vs. dollar. Crude -3.26% to $88.89. Gold +0.26% to $1780.15.

    11:40 AM European shares erase sizable opening losses to close mixed. Stoxx 50 -0.1%, Germany +0.2%, France -0.3%, Italy +0.3%, Spain -0.6%, U.K. +0.2%. The euro -0.1% to $1.2904.

    12:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.30%. 10-yr +0.01%. Euro -0.08%vs. dollar. Crude -3.08% to $89.08. Gold +0.34% to $1781.55.

    EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -0.5M barrels vs. consensus of +1.7M. Gasoline +0.1M barrels vs. -0.4M. Distillates -3.7M barrels vs. -0.3M. Crude futures -2.26% at $89.81.

    Sep ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 55.1 vs. 53.5 expected and 53.7 prior (>50 denotes expansion). Prices index rose to 68.1 from 64.3. Employment fell to 51.1 from 53.8. New orders rose to 57.7 from 53.7.

    Earnings season is just around the corner, but roughly four of every five companies that have already pre-released Q3 results have been negative, according to Strategas, "nearing levels last seen immediately preceding the 2000-01 tech-wreck recession." Will the striking comparison cause investors to question the justification for why stocks are near all-time highs?

    Flows into ETPs totaled $43.3B (with equity funds garnering $34.7B) in September, the highest monthly amount since December 2008. Following the ECB's OMT announcement, average daily flows jumped to $2.7B from just $800M prior. The Fed's QE∞ announcement mid-month provided a booster shot, and thus far has had a far bigger effect on inflows than QE2 did. 

    Net dividend increases totaled $8.8B in Q3, according to S&P, apparently a new record. 439 firms bumped their dividends, up 25.4% Y/Y, vs. just 53 lowering. Of more import, the payout ratio remains near its low of 34% vs. a long-term average of 52%. A strong rise in share prices reduced the average yield to 2.66% from 2.77% 3 months earlier.

     

    Talk of easier monetary policy for Singapore grows ahead of next week's release of the central bank's half-yearly policy statement. The economy shrank 0.7% in Q2 and likely slipped into official recession in Q3, say economists. Thus far this year, shares don't seem to mind the slowdown. EWS +24.3% YTD. - Yeah, because they're ONLY up 23% this year so, of course they need MORE FREE MONEY!  What is this World becomming?

     

    Finally!  The Obama administration gives a green light to the first section of a proposed 146-mile transmission line, calling it a critical upgrade to the faltering Northeast power grid. The high-voltage line is capable of carrying up to 500 kilovolts and will replace an existing line carrying 230 kilovolts. PPL (PPL +0.3%) will build the 101-mile Pennsylvania portion of the line. 

    EV roundup: 1) General Motors (GM +0.7%) widened its lead as the top electric vehicle seller with September Volt sales of 2,851, while the Toyota (TM -0.1%) Prius line doubled sales Y/Y to 18,932 to pace hybrid sellers. 2) Israeli EV infrastructure player Better Place replaces CEO Shai Agassi with top exec Evan Thornley as financial difficulties at the company mount. 3) The DOE wants Tesla (TSLA -1.3%) to pay back its government loans at an accelerated rate when it begins making payments in December.

    Miss Countrywide? It's back, writes Steve Gandel, in the form of PennyMac (PMT), formed 3 years ago by Countrywide alums. Last month, PennyMac opened its first retail branch. Heading the office is Stephen Brandt, who reportedly ran Countrywide's "Friends of Angelo" program. "There's free money on the table and you don't have to work that hard to get it," says a Stifel analyst covering PMT.

     

    Airline stocks post strong gains as oil prices swing lower with crude inventory data coming in below expectations. Leading advancers: LCC +5.7%UAL +3.6%HA +4.0%DAL +3.6%.

    With the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) at an all-time high, trader(s) really get bullish with 254K January 38 calls purchased yesterday, tripling the typical open interest on the contract. The 38 strike is about 5% out-of-the-money and cost $0.15.

     

    Lazard Capital downgrades Mosaic (MOS -1.3%) and Potash (POT -2%) to Neutral from Buy, warning investors not to consider yesterday's dip in MOS a buying opportunity. The firm expects potash prices to drift lower despite strong crop fundamentals which will support fertilizer demand, and doesn't see any catalyst that would lead to meaningful stock price gains.

    A taco too far? Shares of Chipotle (CMG) recover more than half the ground lost after David Einhorn unleashed his short thesis on the company yesterday. Though the argument on valuation and commodity costs resonate, Einhorn seems to have lost the investment community with his take that Taco Bell's (YUM +0.3%) refreshed menu will steal significant market share from Chipotle. The counterpointbeing bandied about is that CMG's brand equity and Taco Bell's long history as an unhealthy fast-food stopping off point make the two chains too far away for direct comparisons. 

     

    3M (MMM +0.3%) unveils a restructure in which it will cut the number of business groups from six to five. The segments will be: Consumer (2011 sales of $4.2B), Industrial ($9.6B), Healthcare ($5B) and two new groups: Safety & Graphics ($5.5B), and Electronics & Energy ($5.7B). (PR)

     

    Shares of gun makers Smith & Wesson (SWHC -4.2%) and Sturm, Ruger (RGR -2.8%) fall today on the back of cautious comments out of Benchmark. Analyst Mike Greene suggests that the growth in applications for handguns slowed last month to just 14.7%, down from the 20%-plus growth levels seen from May – August.

     

     

    H-P (HPQ -5.4%) dives as its analyst day gets underway (live blogwebcast). Meg Whitman has declared FY13 to be a "fix and rebuild" year that will see a broad-based profit decline (centered around enterprise services), and has again made cautious remarks about European and Chinese demand (previous). Analysts currently expect H-P's FY13 EPS to rise slightly. Streamlining H-P's product line is named a priority: the company plans to halve its printer SKUs next year.

    More from H-P's (HPQ -7.5%analyst day: H-P establishes FY13 EPS guidance of $3.40-$3.60, below a consensus of $4.18. Enterprise Services will see a $0.29-$0.35 EPS drop thanks to an 11%-13% revenue decline, and enterprise hardware a $0.05-$0.12 drop. Software and printing earnings are expected to grow, and PC earnings are seen as flat to slightly down. Meg Whitman admits there have been execution issues. The Street isn't happy. (live blog,webcast)

    Dell (DELL -1.7%) and AMD (AMD -3.1%) slump as investors mull the implications of H-P's analyst day commentary andguidance. The companies, who have been hit hard by worries about tepid PC demand, are both making new multi-year lows.

     

    Brightcove (BCOV +3.9%) trades higher after announcingDiscovery Networks will use the Brightcove App Cloud mobile app development/hosting platform to provide interactive, dual-screen, TV services. Brightcove appears to be finally breaking out of a trading range it has been stuck in since mid-August.

     

    Netflix (NFLX +6.5%) roars out of the gate with a solid gain as Citi backs the Buy-rated name on the strength of their survey that shows improving customer satisfaction for the first time since last year's "Apocaflix" PR disaster. The Citi take in a nutshell: NFLX can be bought by investors at 10X P/E as its U.S. operations generate $5.50 in EPS, with a free call option on the company's international business. (Also: Whitney Tilson pitches the bull case on NFLX)

     

    More on MetroPCS/T-Mobile: A CC is underway (live blog,webcast). The combined company will retain the T-Mobile name. $6B-$7B in cost synergies are targeted. T-Mobile USA CEO John Legere will head the company, and Deutsche Telekom will nominate board members. MetroPCS, which is announcing a 1:2 reverse stock split, will receive a $250M termination fee if the deal falls through. T-Mobile and MetroPCS have 42M combined subs right now, though that number is declining.  PCS -4%.

    More on the MetroPCS/T-Mobile USA merger: MetroPCS shareholders will get $1.5B in cash and a 26% stake in the combined company (MetroPCS closed with a $4.9B market cap yesterday), and Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) the remaining 74% stake. The deal is expected to close in 1H13. The WSJ notes the deal's reverse-merger structure could allow DT to gradually sell its stake and exit the U.S. market. PCS -2.1% after yesterday's big gainsLEAP +3.4%S-1.2%. 

    "I would like to have done better," says Nokia (NOK +0.2%)Stephen Elop regarding the company's early Windows Phone (

  75. Phil

    Damn, I hit submit by accident…  will try to fix..

  76. jasu1

    Phil,
    I have no position in HPQ…….Would you recommend 2014 Sell $13 Put for 1.75 if I can get it  20 contracts maybe.?? 
    Thanks in advance

  77. Phil

    Nope, it's shot….  

  78. jasu1

    Thank you Sir…..

  79. rpme

    Phil, HPQ buy some stock and sell the Jan $16 p&c?

  80. Phil

    KBH/BDC – Very nice and you don't have to go through all that daily drama to get there…

    GLW//Rain – Nice dividend at .36 (2.5%).  

    Old IPhones/Occam – In the pop-up stores in the mall they offer $150 for a 4.  

    China/Shadow – Pressure China to do what?  

    You're welcome Ink.  

    Sanctions/1020 – Forced austerity on someone else's population.  So pretty much exactly like what Germany is doing to the rest of the EU. 

    HPQ/Jasu- Will certainly be better numbers when the 2015s are available but I'd sell the 2014 $13 puts for $1.70 and buy the $10/13 bull call spread for $2.15 for net .45 on the $3 spread that's $5.76 in the money to start.  

    You're welcome Jasu.  

    HPQ/Rpme – I kind of like the above spread.  Worst case is you own them for net $13.45.  

  81. Savi

    Good Afternoon—missed my favourite /RB play—Phil is 2.80 still  a good line to play off?
    thanks

  82. shadowfax

    I love being right on predicting this, I wonder if real investor class ever backed Romney, I don't count super pac super donators for anything but haveing too much money.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/romney-next-problem-donor-apathy-160413971.html

  83. Pharmboy

    AVEO – Jan 13 10/12.5 BCS for 85c.  Few, the proud, the ones I am buying.  I will sell Jan13 7.5 P for 50c if I can get it.

  84. rexx

    Is BP's Deepwater Horizon leaking again?
    http://www.stuarthsmith.com/breaking-news-new-oil-sheen-near-site-of-deepwater-horizon-disaster/

  85. shadowfax

    Phil China
    Create balanced trade by imposing penalties for unfair trading. Personally tarriffs come to mind but there are lots of ways and they have to include the rest of the world. It will bring back jobs and taxes collected. In the long run new powers need to switch to comsumption and services because the US and Europe can't buy everything and yes European powers need to get on the same boat.
    In the end this will help China, India, and the rest. Should take a bite out of multinational corp control. Think world gets to move up together instead of the rich get richer. All currencies devaluing together is a start. This is the bottom up together, equality everywhere can work like it did in the USA a long time ago.

  86. Phil

    Gasoline/Savi – Oil's acting too weak to play it today.  Not sure what's up but it dropped $1 like a rock since 1 but I do like oil long at $88.50 (/CL) better than gasoline for the next day.  

    Not sure what all this sudden weakness is about but it's not good.  Dollar the same at 80.05.  

    Romney/Shadow – How ironic if he runs out of money.  

    BP/Rexx – That would suck.  

    China/Shadow – We chose to make them our factory floor – it's not really their fault.  We are their sales arm and we offloaded all the transportation infrastructure needs and all the pollution and all the labor issues to China – quite happily too over the last 30 years.  Now you want to punish them for being what we made them?  What we really need is to educate people to stop being such psychotic consumers of junk – that's going to take decades but life was a lot better when people shopped locally and took pride in owning things that were made in America.  Simplest thing in the World to look for the union label but oops, I said unions…. that's commie talk!  

  87. jromeha

    Pharm/AVEO – you earlier recommended the 10/12.5 Oct spread, would you roll this to the Jan spread?

  88. rainman

    Phil / transmission line — I've been debating if more of this sort of project will be pushed by Obama if he is reelected. He can either make waves and get things done without worrying about reelection or sit back and protect his post office income stream by keeping status quo. I'm glad to see at least this little project and hope there is more on the way.  We needed a new deal yesterday.  I'm sure he could jam it down the throats of congress under the guise of national security if he really wants to. And no, this is not a political debate, this is an economic issue.

  89. shadowfax

    IWM has been over trendline resistance since about 12:00, now it is back to the line and will it become support? This is the 83.78 and 50% fib line, a multi make or break point. /TF has been over all day but futures traders don't buy the stock and so far have not convinced anyone to put up.

  90. Savi

    Thanks Phil

  91. occam

    box ap (did they steal this idea from dropbox?) is offering 10 GB free storage if you sign up before Oct 31.  Funny a very similar storage service and very similar price competition developed and died 10 years ago.  bandwidth and storage is much cheaper now though.  

  92. jasu1

    Phil ,
    Damn….sold the 2014 15Put for 2.73 by mistake….Liquidate or let it ride with a new BCS that you recommend?
    Thanks

  93. shadowfax

    Phil
    It isn't punish them. I think it is show them the way to the next level but without teeth they won't listen. My idea will mostly punish the big corps the exploited the poor wherever they are. less than a billion can't consume what the rest produce. If the world became consumer based by making a viable world mid class. then all we would need is population control. The people need to be educated on sustainable population and moderation of all things.

  94. Pharmboy

    AVEO/jro – I thought it was November BCS with the sale of the Oct 10s?  Humm, I think you can uncover and leave the calls and puts as is.  Jan is a new one for me.

  95. Phil

    New Deal/Rain – That's what he should have done from day one.  He'd probably be running unopposed now.  

    IWM/Shadow – See any reason for that sudden drop?  

    You're welcome Savi.  

    Storage/Occam – Now you can buy in bulk from AMZN and others for such low cost that the models make more sense.  No equipment to buy or maintain – just add more AMZN space as the users come in – what's not to like in that model?  

    HPQ/Jasu – It's more aggressive than I'd like but you're only going to roll to 2015 anyway if it's not working so I wouldn't pay the round-trip fees for no reason.  

    Population control/Shadow – Well China is the only nation on Earth that is actually practicing population control but now their demographics are shot and that will be next decade's problem.  China does try to promote internal consumption but they have the same problem we do, the top 1% don't pay the bottom 80% enough to give them any disposable income.  We have a big trade imbalance with China but it's only $338Bn from them while we send them $71Bn.  Overall, China exports about $1.5Tn and we export $1.4Tn globally.  Our problem is we import $2.2Tn but that's not China's fault other than their 15% – we, as a society, need to change.  China imports $1.2Tn – they're balanced – do you want to specifically jam our goods and services down their throat?  No, WE need to change our own ways and stop blaming the China boogie man for our troubles.  

    Wow, I just think this debate is freaking people out…  

    A lot of energy companies leading the sell-off and copper is down $3.77 so probably miners are following.  

  96. angelcur

    LOTS OF APPLE INSIDERS ARE SELLING

  97. shadowfax

    Phil
    My bottom line is make and buy American, take down the mega whoever. Did I not say it will hit the mutinaional powers, they are the problem. I am mot blaming China or anyone but the 1%ers or acctually the .001%ers of the world.
    The choice is equalize the world or start wars.

  98. Phil

    $88.10 – Oil amazingly weak.  I guess Iran's possible capitulation may be taking out some of the fear pricing.  If so – it's not likely to bounce back so be careful if you're betting long.  

  99. Inkarri19

    Shadow – I am sure that one or two universal laws will eventually reassert themselves. 

  100. Phil

    1%'ers/Shadow – Now you're on to something.  It is a global thing, there's no difference between our top 1% and China's top 1% and they all go to the same parties as Saudi Arabia's top 1% and Mexico's top 1%, etc.  That is the power that needs to be fought.  The whole point of free trade was to freely trade labor down to the lowest possible level – they just forgot to mention that part when they were wrapping it up in a bow and selling it to voters over the past few decades.  The top 1% have always moved manufacturing away from expensive labor – they ran out of workers to exploit in the US so they took their act on the road and we shipped 40M jobs overseas.  This is great for Corporate profits but sucked for US Workers.  

    $87.85!  On the whole, we're holding up pretty well with this massacre in the energy sector going on.  

    V & MA seem happy – making new highs.  

    AMZN rockin', PCLN waking up.  Poor AAPL stuck at $666.  

  101. angelcur

    lots of apple insider selling going on

  102. jelutuck

    Phil, I think I've  learned a lot from you and wanted to run my adventures with HPQ by you.  I feel like I am in a much better position now that I would have been before following your site, but let me know what you think.  I first sold 10 of  the HPQ Jan 14 $18 puts for $2.70.  When it dropped a few months ago, I rolled to 17 of the $15 puts for even money.  When it dropped today, I rolled to 26 of the the Jan 14 $13 puts for even money again.  So I started with a $2,700 credit and now I have essentially a 2.5X position with an entry price of $11.10, which is still 28% below here.  I have a reasonable position size of $5K and I can still roll to the 2015 at some point and own HP for probably $8 or $9 worst case.  I can sleep at night with this one!

  103. kinkistyle

    Its finally happening.  China building factories in the U.S.:
     
    Lenovo announces plans to bring manufacturing back to the US

  104. angelcur

    TOPSTONE OF THE PYRAMID TALK //yes Glass Steagall gone..NAFTA in..my man WJ CLINTON was the catalyst behind those two gems..they worked out brilliantly for the …yep 1%!..self enrichment is the only bi partisan agenda agreed upon.

  105. shadowfax

    And now it sucks for Chinese workers. Those rich guys are running out of places. Trading fairly effects them more than the bottom 99%, the power to stop it is there and a great time is now befor they put up the next head fake.

  106. rpme

    Oil just keeps falling.

  107. shadowfax

    IWM may have a seller getting out befor the debate, large blocks are red, the BOTS continue to not buy and that seems to be the reason. I assume the smart money is out and angel? says AAPL insiders selling? All insiders are selling. The BOTS are programed by the biggest money. What I don't understand is what is the big thing about the debate tonight? Who has the best line? The real policies are out for people like us that pay a little attention, all I want to know is what the stupid uninformed decide or are sold on. This is about the undecided and the undecided are dangerously stupid at this point.

  108. scottmi

    Does anyone really think the debate tonight will matter at all for election, markets, anything? if so, please tell me in what way.

  109. shadowfax

    Since about 2:20 3 distinct sell signals and Algo's have a buy. The computers have made them very effective help to loose money. Did trading stop for 5 minutes or so? Did a breaker kick in and why?

  110. stockbern

    Phil/  Chinese population control.  My son works for a publicly traded reit here in the US.  On a recent trip to their Shanghai office, he learned that the seven female employees must schedule their pregnancies with the male office manager.  The office rule is only one girl pregnant at a time.  If you are the girl with the lowest seniority , it could be up to seven years before you can have your one and only allowed child.  Just incredible!

  111. shadowfax

    scottmi Debate means nothing!

  112. denlundy

    This might awaken USO a little.
    Turkey fired on selected targets inside Syria immediately after Syrian shells hit a Turkish border town, Turkey's prime minister said in a prepared statement. Turkey said it will hit more targets if Syrian attacks are repeated.
     
     
    http://stream.wsj.com/story/syria/SS-2-34182/SS-2-63552/?mod=djemalertEuropenews

  113. shadowfax

    What happened to oil? Did we miss an almost flash crash? Not much of chance for Mr Stick today.

  114. lionel

    Thanks Pharm

  115. angelcur

    TURKEY STRIKING TARGETS INSIDE OF SYRIA FINALLY SOME BALLS BEING EXIBITED

  116. rainman

    DJI, SPX and IXIC all rejected at their 200 minute squiggly.

  117. jromeha

    HPQ – when does it end!?!?!

  118. rainman

    jromeha / HPQ — I'd give it time for the downgrades to roll in.

  119. williex

    Shadow
    Rumour of strategic reserve release  just in time for the election

  120. dclark41

    (SRR)
    Not that rumor again!

  121. angelcur

    turkey now deploying tanks, artillery and missile batteries to syria border

  122. Phil

    HPQ/Jet – Sounds good to me as long as you are tracking the net properly.  You're on the hook to own 2,600 HPQ at $11.10 ($28,860) vs originally 1,000 at net $15.30 ($15,300) so keep that in mind because it may get rockier for HPQ and you may find it's better to roll back to 15 or 18 or 20 2015 puts, even at a slightly higher strike, than to 26 puts.  It depends on how comfortable you are with owning HPQ as a long-term investment.  

    China/Kinki – LOL, that's it, we're officially the 4th World.  

    Enrichments/Angel – Amen to that.  Although I don't blame Clinton for Glass-Steagall.  GOP Congress tied it to Christmas spending bill and Clinton could shut down Washington or do a pointless veto (they had the votes to override) and Bush would do it anyway a month later.  

    China/Shadow – Actually, if you want to be shocked, look up the massive investments China is making in Africa – that's where they plan to move their manufacturing.  

    Oil finding bottom at $87.70.  I was off by $1 last week as well with my bottom call. 

    AAPL $670!  

    Debate/Shadow – The concern people have about the debate is Romney needs to spend 90 minutes convincing America we have an economic catastrophe on our hands and, if Obama is re-elected, we're looking at a total economic melt-down.  To the extent he is able to make that point he can change sentiment for the markets – especially since Obama will probably win no matter what he says.  Keep in mind, he doesn't have to convince all the buyers – just half and half are obviously swallowing whatever BS he spouts anyway.  No idea about breakers. 

    Debate/Scott – I think Romney can put himself back in contention by having a reasonable explanation for an economic plan that will create jobs but that's a big stretch because he doesn't actually have one.  

    Scheduled pregnancy/Stock – Makes practical sense.   Only seems incredible to us freedom-loving Americans who have babies willy-nilly.  

    Turkey/Den – Now they're causing trouble?  

    HPQ/Jrom – Being crucified by the MSM now, will be a good week for finding bottom.  

    And what Rain said – next comes the downgrade police.  

  123. shadowfax

    HPQ is another sign of the consumer is tapped out. They aren't really doing anything wrong except not giving the lower ranks a raise. Others will follow and after all this the ecomorons wil say the resession started in the summer of 2016.
    Maybe everyone will buy Apples but what I hear is most of their business is phones. Everyone with a connection has a computer. New is nicer but old works.

  124. stjeanluc

    NFLX at $62.00…. MoMo for a day!

  125. Phil

     

    Turkey strikes targets inside Syria after mortar attack

     

    Strike comes in response to Syrian mortar bomb that lands in middle of residential area in Turkish village, hitting house, killing 5 civilians; Turkish FM phones Ban, Brahimi and senior military officials after incident.

    Turkey's military struck targets inside Syria on Wednesday in response to a mortar bomb fired from Syrian territory which killed five Turkish civilians, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's office said in a statement.

       

    A mortar bomb fired from Syria landed in a residential district of the southeastern Turkish town of Akcakale earlier Wednesday, killing a woman and four children from the same family and wounding at least eight other people.

  126. stjeanluc

    Can we trade that on the FX market:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/10/how-does-a-currency-drop-60-in-8-days-just-ask-iran/263159/

    Iran's currency has collapsed in two ways — gradually and then suddenly. Iran is very much in the sudden phase right now. It took 24,600 rials to buy one dollar on September 24. It took 39,000 rials to buy one dollar on October 2. That's good for a 59 percent drop in just a week. This kind of currency cliff-diving is basically a bank run on the rial — a bank run U.S.-led sanctions set off.

  127. scottmi

    HPQ – when do the 2015s come out? i'll be ready to roll a few put out and down 2x.

  128. scottmi

    HPQ murdered (thanks Meg) but INTC and MSFT don't seem to have any sympathy. HP still has a business.

  129. lflantheman

    Remain long AAPL, no covers.  See you tomorrow!

  130. occam

    have a good evening folks!

  131. Phil

    Tapped out/Shadow – The consumer is tapped out from buying IPads and IPhones.  A lot of these manufacturers screwed themselves rushing out "me too" products to compete with AAPL and I agree with you – there's no compelling reason to upgrade computers anymore when 90% of what you do is on the web.  

    NFLX/StJ – Amazing!  Up 15% in 2 days.  Their forward p/e is back to 68 and that can rise fast as they only made $2M so far this year (2 Qtrs) against a $5Bn valuation so expectations are that will move closer to $100M by Q1 (their Q4).  SIRI has a complete monopoly and owns their content  and they do $3Bn in sales and make $426M and they are valued at $10Bn.  NFLX gets a $5Bn valuation on the same $3Bn in sales and I don't see how they can get to $200M as the space gets more competitive every day and it's not even their content.  

    Iran/StJ – They are closing the markets, they can't keep up with the daily inflation.  This can get ugly fast.  

    HPQ/Scott – They are usually out by the end of October.  I don't blame Meg – huge turnaround taking a long time and she's being honest about it.  They do $130Bn in sales and they MUST change their product mix – not a quick thing.  

    AAPL/Lflan – I'm keeping the 3/10 we have.  Figure we'll roll to next week $680s.  

  132. diamond

    scottmi – RE: HPQ 2015's …
     
    Either Monday, October 15th or Monday, November 12th.

  133. shadowfax

    IWM closed right on the up or down point. No answer there, dead after the bell.

  134. Phil

    There's the bell and just 102M on the Dow after all that.  

    AAPL really came on strong at the end – good for Nas (20% of that index) and S&P (about 5%). 

    Good day on the whole with Dollar strength taking down commodities but not the broad market. 

     

    • Weak bounce levels are:  Dow 13,447, S&P 1,443, Nasdaq 3,104, NYSE 8,220 and Russell 838.
    • We're at——————————--: Dow 13,494, S&P 1,450, Nasdaq 3,135, NYSE 8,297 and Russell 838.     
    • Strong bounce levels are:  Dow 13,494, S&P 1,457, Nasdaq 3,128, NYSE 8,264 and Russell 843

    Barely off from this morning after all that nonsense.  That 838 line on the RUT still holding up. 

  135. rpme

    Phil, on the keeping people from voting, there was a good special on last night with Dan Rather that talked about all the great things that have happened in Ohio since 2004 where they had expanded the number of voters by 30%. Expanded voting hours, weekend voting, easier registration and mail in. All done away with this year by the Republican legislature under the guise of streamlining the process. Truly worrying!

  136. diamond

    Link to 2015 options schedule (article) – CBOE

  137. stjeanluc

    Thanks Diamond…

  138. diamond

    Your welcome stjeanluc! :-)
     
    Last post on this topic:
     
    HPQ is obviously in the February, May cycle. Therefore the HPQ 2015 leap options will be available on Monday, October 15th. 

  139. diamond

    I'm exhausted not illiterate! Should be you're NOT your!!! Oops … ;-)

  140. scottmi

    diamone – thank you

  141. rj_jarboe

    So much for FTR's visit to $5. Do that many people really sell when Cramer says?

  142. Burrben

    HPQ  -  Just my 2c, but why even bother with HPQ when you can just sell 2015 AAPL puts?  What's the point?  Why bet on a company that is admitting it's struggling?  Did you see the latest HPQ laptop release?  It's like they threw everything at the wall to see what sticks?  Did anyone look at their 17in bahemoth laptop?  Compared to the samsung 17 I got, it was twice as thick and $500 more expensive.
     
    Again, just my 2c, but look at PeterD or LFlan for good examples.  They trade high profitability stratagies using a limited number of names and are very successful.  Having tons of these "maybe" stocks doesn't do it for me anymore.  Probably why I'm pretty quiet.  I'm building up bigger positions by scaling in to stocks I know and trust and have a huge cushion for the bet to pay off.  
     
    Or do the "Gut Check".  Who wins, AAPL or HPQ?  Go with you're gut. 

  143. stjeanluc

  144. kinkistyle

    HPQ/Burrben:  I'm think the same was said about AAPL compared to MSFT, DELL and ironically, CPQ (now HPQ) throughout the 90's when they were basically written off as a has-been company destined for bankruptcy.  They managed to turn it around pretty well (altho it took a few years).

    They are a very undervalued company now, even based on revised guidance and the sentiment on them is horrible. That gives them a big margin of safety which makes them a lower risk investment for a long-term value investor.  I must admit, the chart looks like pure crap though.
     
    I don't see why you can't own both AAPL and HPQ in your portfolio — a little diversification never hurts.

  145. rpme

    Kink, you are so right. I bought AAPL at $192 and got chased out because all the pundits were coming out of the woodwork saying they sucked, should have bought more on the way down, hindsight and all…took me to $310 before I got back in, and still have it today.
    Sold some HP puts today, saw on CNBC a guy saying its going to $7, I sure hope so, I can buy more cheaper. I admit buying good companies when they are cheap is hard…I have had other experiences, RIMM for example…

  146. wappler

    Phil/PANL,
    What are your thoughts on PANL?  They've shown up on my radar TheStreet has downgraded them for no particular reason other than price going down, which makes this downgrades somewhat suspicious.  Do Cramer's friends want to accumulate the stock or am I getting paranoid? 

  147. hoss18

    Only difference I see is Steve Jobs had a vision and drive to pull his team to the next level and to instill the confidence and trust to innovate and create in ways previously unimagined.  Does Meg Whitman have that kind of juice?  
     
    I'm not a doubter, just skeptical.  HPQ, and Dell(where I used to work), need to truly innovate and revamp themselves.  IMO, they have to figure out how to leap frog to the next generation of technology which they can produce….or go the way of Wang…..and it may already be too late….

  148. Burrben

    I guess to each his own on HPQ and AAPL.  AAPL turned it around when they release a revolutionary eco-system around music.  Up until then it was a hodgepodge of services and devices…and they made it cool.  As soon as any of my blue collar friends who works in the field tells me "I have to have this thingy from HP", then I'll be a believer.  
    Until then shorting the Jan15 400 puts for 36+, with a net buy in of 364 for AAPL is a darn good bet that I would rather commit capital too.   

  149. diamond

    Phil – After tonight's debate, please post your impression that you have of it. Thanks!

  150. hoss18

    MSFT could be colored in the same light, but what I am hearing about Windows 8 is it will be a game changer.  Not to directly compete with AAPL, but aimed at businesses and going cross platform.  Meaning, one can create once and deploy to desktop/server/tablet/smartphone……interesting gamble, but could pay huge dividends if it works.  Leveraging strength of server and Office marketshare to re-establish/maintain dominance.
     
    Anyone read the Vanity Fair article on MSFT?  Very interesting, and from what I have heard pretty much right on target.  Ballmer quits, the stock jumps 10%…..still have them as a core LT position…..

  151. kinkistyle

    Burrben: Honestly, I don't think HPQ will ever become the next AAPL.  At this point, I'd be MORE than happy for just 1.5x book value. 

  152. nicha

    What are people's impressions of the debate so far?

  153. diamond

    Jim Carrey should portray Mitt Romney on Saturday Night Live. ;-)

  154. Savi

    anyone of the opinion many Americans may have tuned out by now !!!!

  155. rdn4evr

    I'll throw in my two cents on HPQ, even though it's been a long time since I've worked with them.  Actually, just the fact that Meg Whitman got up there and said that things weren't all sunshine and lollipops impressed me.  It makes me think that she was intentionally trying to throw a molotov cocktail into the last remnants of the old HP culture.   Anyone who worked with HP soon became very familiar with what was always referred to as "The HP Way",  as in, "That's not "The HP Way".   Apparently, "The HP Way" meant always being optimistic in forecasts, and then dealing with the disappointing reality later.  To me, this seemed to create a perpetual environment of over promising and under delivering,  but that was the way they wanted it.  They were great people, but had been trained to make only the most optimistic of projections, and then blame any deviations on events that could not possibly have been foreseen.  It was The HP Way.

  156. dclark41

    Phil:
    Can I get some advice on my HOV position? I hold Jan 2014 $2.00 sold puts. I entered the position at .90. It is now (.35-.40). Is there a better way to position myself in what I consider a long-term holding? I am a little nervous about rolling up the puts until I see HOV break and hold above the $4.00, but I am sure you may be able to provide more insight than that. TIA.

  157. dclark41

    I don't think Romney hurt himself tonight. Whether you believe him or not he took advantage of his opportunity. Time will tell whether it makes a difference.

  158. Phil

    Romney (or whoever that guy was) did a great job.   He totally threw Obama off by reversing on key positions.  Obama was dumbfounded and off his game from the moment Mitt said he was going to raise taxes on the rich.    I guess he figures those people will assume he's just lying to get the votes so no harm and he may swing some undecideds.  

  159. hoss18

    Most interesting story of the night IMO…
     
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-03/guest-post-hyperinflation-has-arrived-iran
     
    My understanding is the mullahs are a minority in control.  And, hyperinflation generally leads to social instability and regime change.  So if this is accurate, the Mullahs may be backed into a corner….they may have to lash out in order divert attention from the destruction of their economy.  This may be worth keeping an eye on…I don't think anyone's pricing in regime change in Iran…that would be a HUGE geopolitical issue….plus look how quickly it has set in…woof…

  160. 1020

    Reversing?  I do like that better than saying: flip flop. And definately more diplomatic than saying: there you go again, you lying sack-of-sh*t……

  161. zeroxzero

    Checking in from another travel day.  Agree entirely with Hoss – Iran is potentially a very big story.  Dictatorships habitually blame and lash out at "external enemies" at times of internal crisis, and the fact is that Iran's plight is actually being caused by external enemies through the embargo.  I wouldn't be short oil right now.  In fact, it might be worth a play in the other direction.
     
     Debates? Surprising.  Obama came off as supercilious, out of touch and unprepared.  Off his game?  He hasn't shown much of a discernible game that I've notice.  Maintaining a condescending smirk whenever Romney spoke conveyed a kind of dull narcissism  --,  he gave the sense of being both inert and unprepared.  It doesn't require much partisanship to suggest that he's not exactly a second coming of the "Great Communicator"  - rather more "The Incommunicado Functionary."  He deserves the boot if he doesn't have the political skills to parlay his seat in the Oval Office into a second term  -- because, ideology aside, he'll get even less done in his second term.
     
    Romney — well, despite graduating in the top 5% of Harvard's MBA program, he was considered something of a lightweight in his Boston Consulting Group "class" which he entered upon graduation, according to a CA venture capitalist/engineer that I happened to speak to this week whom joined BCG the same year.  I would guess America would be better off with an energetic intellectual lightweight than our current Wizard of ObZ.  A Presidential Hobson's Choice, to be sure.  I wouldn't worry about ideology — I doubt either one is overly afflicted by it, American Presidents seldom are.  Nor are Merkel, Putin or Hu Jintao, for that matter. 

  162. flipspiceland

    After watching about a half hour of the debates, I can only confirm the conclusion that Clinton was right:
    He's an amateur. No more presidential than Sponge Bob Square Pants.
     Short WOR 20 puts.

  163. Phil

    Good morning!  

    We were doing good for a while in Futures but gave back a lot at 4am, now just up a little.  

    Seemed like a little flash crash the way we're recovering.  I don't see any news, probably a rumor out of Europe. 

    The Nikkei and India were happy, up about 1% this morning (Hong Kong seems to be open but flat – maybe still in holiday mode) despite growth warning: 

     

    ADB Cuts Asia Growth Forecasts

    The Asian Development Bank slashed its forecasts for growth in emerging Asia, highlighting a significant slowdown in the region's giants, China and India, and warning of the potential for sudden flows in capital out of the area.

     

    Dollar at 79.80, oil back to $88.80 (good for our bullish plays), gold flying at $1,791, silver testing $35 but no cigar yet, copper back to $3.80, Nat gas $3.417 and gasoline coming back at $2.848.  Euro $1.295, Pound $1.611 and 78.55 Yen to the Buck.  

    Big data day:

    Thursday's economic calendar:

    Chain Store Sales

    7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report

    8:30 Initial Jobless Claims

    9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

    10:00 Factory Orders

    10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory

    2:00 PM FOMC minutes

    4:30 PM Money Supply

    4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

    6:30 PM Fed's Bullard: U.S. Economic and Monetary Policy

    6:00 AM Overseas: Japan +0.89%;. Hong Kong +0.09%. China closed. India +1.01%. London -0.30%. Paris -0.32%. Frankfurt-0.29%. 

    This is the first time after any of the QE, Twist, and LTRO announcements that the stock market is lower 13 trading sessionslater, writes David Rosenberg. The Fed may have established a floor for prices, but the global economy has created a ceiling. Another obstacle is bullish sentiment, just the opposite of this time last year when investors were hunkered down for more pain. 

    Fed Confused Reality Doesn't Conform To Its Economic Models, Shocked Its Models Predict "Explosive Inflation".

    This has been the largest peacetime accumulation of debt in history, observes Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass. In the past we only saw global debt balances this high in relationship to GDP when nations were preparing for war. As a consequence, investment decision-making has become extremely difficult. “We've never been here before,” Bass says. His goal right now is simply "not to lose money."

    While Treasury yields continue to track quite closely changes in economic news, writes Joe Brusuelas, stocks have diverged, not following lower this year's slowing data. The question: Will the dataturn upward to match stocks, or stocks down to match the data (and bond yields).

    Mortgage prepayment rates jump to their highest level since 2005 as homeowners take advantage of record-low rates (and federal assistance) to refinance. At the rate seen in August, 25% of current debt would be erased in a year, according to LPS. Not surprisingly, the mREIT sector – taking it on the chin for the past few days – is lit up bright red again today.

    This was his best line:  Romney in Debate Says Obama Favors ‘Trickle-Down Government’Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney said President Barack Obama favors a form of “trickle- down government” that will result in more taxes and regulations, as the two met in their first debate in the race for the White House. “That’s not the right answer for America.” 

    CNN Poll: Romney wins debate by big marginSixty-seven percent of registered voters who watched the debate said GOP nominee Mitt Romney won the debate, while 25% said President Barack Obama came out as the winner, according to a CNN/ORC International Poll released late Wednesday night.

    France’s LBO Firms Predict ‘Death’ From Hollande’s 75% Carry TaxFrench private-equity fund managers are predicting their own exile if lawmakers back President Francois Hollande’s proposed tax increases on the profit the industry makes from investments. Hollande, who released his first annual budget on Sept. 28, plans to tax fund managers’ share of the profit from their investments, known as carried interest, at a rate of as much as 75 percent, part of a wider effort to increase taxes on the wealthy and narrow the country’s deficit. France also plans to as much as double taxes on capital gains and restrict the amount of debt interest payments a company can deduct from its taxable income, a measure that will reduce returns on leveraged buyouts. Lower levies in the U.K. will lure professionals across the English Channel from where they can still try to buy French companies, Parisian dealmakers say

    Draghi Stares at Spain as Bond Brinkmanship Keeps ECB WaitingMario Draghi is waiting for Spain to get back to him on whether his plan to save the euro is needed. One month after the European Central Bank president unveiled an unprecedented bond purchase program to rescue Europe’s embattled southern fringe, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is showing reluctance to ask for the aid he pushed for with Italy on concern about the terms attached to it

    Spain Off Balance-Sheet Debt Worsens Rajoy's Battle: Euro Credit. Liabilities that the Spanish government has held off its balance sheet are winding up on the taxpayers' tab , threatening Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's efforts to haul the economy out of a five-year slump. Government debt will leap 17 percentage points to 85% of gdp this year as the state absorbs the cost of bailing out banks, the power system and public contractors. - 85% is still 15-20% better than US! 

    Spain's government sold €3.992B of bonds with demand strong across all maturities. The mark falls just short of the maximum target of €4B set for the auction. Yields fell on the five-year bond to 4.77% and 3.28% on the two-year variety.

    World Bank lowers Latin American growth forecast to 3 pctEconomic growth in Latin America will be lower than previously estimated due to the continuing worldwide slowdown, the World Bank said in a report on Wednesday. It forecast growth at 3 percent this year, below its previous projection of 3.5 to 4 percent.

    India Slowdown Thwarts Carmakers’ Sales Search Beyond U.SWith sales crashing in Europe and slowing in China, carmakers are looking for signs of growth beyond the U.S. market. In India, it’s not looking good. The holiday season, just under way there, typically accounts for about a quarter of new auto purchases. This year, the market is uncharacteristically moribund as the economy is projected to grow at its slowest pace in a decade.

    U.S. strip mall recovery stalls in the third quarterThe nascent recovery at U.S. strip malls stalled in the third quarter as retail sales struggled. But large regional malls continued to rebound, driven by top-quality malls with high-end department and specialty stores, real estate research firm Reis Inc said Thursday. The retail real estate sector has been among the hardest hit in commercial property. At the mercy of consumer spending, the sector has reflected the diverse pressures and changes since the housing crisis began in 2007. 

    Costco (COST) Sep same-store sales: +6.0% vs. consensus of +5.7%. Total sales +8% to $9.31B (PR) 

    Selling Qatar an oil trading desk- what could possibly go wrong?  Morgan Stanley (MS) is in talks to sell a majority stake in its commodities trading business to the Qatar Investment Authority, according to sources. The bank has been shopping a minority stake in the unit for some time, but selling a larger chunk would free Morgan from needing to hamstring its traders in order to comply with the Volcker Rule.

    What manipulation?  A two-year G-20 probe into whether the unregulated physical oil market is vulnerable to manipulation and needs tighter supervision looks set to end this week with a report that effectively endorses the current system. The IOSCO is backpedaling from earlier calls for tougher industry oversight, even as average U.S. retail gasoline prices hover near record levels.

    Independent gasoline station owners in the Los Angeles area are beginning to shut their pumps because of supply shortages that have driven wholesale fuel prices to record highs. Spot gasoline in LA has surged $0.70 this week to $3.95/gallon, a $1.15 premium vs. NY exchange futures. Costs should start falling as Exxon's 150K bbl/day Torrance refinery returns to normal operations.

    Consumers purchased automobiles with an average fuel economy 7.2% better than a year ago, according to data tabulated by the University of Michigan. Though the long-term tendency of buyers to avoid gas guzzlers is still intact, over the last six months the trend has been flat. It's an important issue for automakers mulling over how to approach the SUV market with its attractive margins.

    Offshore drilling is in a "very, very strong” position thanks to global rig demand and the booming oil and gas E&P business, Diamond Offshore (DO -1.9%) chairman James Tisch tells CNBC. Dayrates for sixth-generation rigs have risen from $400K/day a few years ago to $550K-$600K now, he says; natural gas is “transformative for our economy."

    Sales of U.S. coal in Europe are booming as European power companies forego natural gas, FT reports. The U.S. is on track to break the 1981 record for coal exports of 112.5M tons, with Europe accounting for more than half of this year’s coal export tally. Little more than four years removed from its all-time peak price of $161/ton, coal dipped to $63 this week.

    Tesla (TSLA) will make an advance payment on the DOE loan principal payment that's due in March, says CEO Elon Musk in ablog post. Musk's remarks come shortly after Tesla disclosed thepolitically pressured DOE wants the company to repay its loan at anaccelerated pace. Also: Musk claims Tesla is "on the verge of becoming cash flow positive," and defends the company's Q3/Q4guidance cut by claiming Tesla is "at the steepest portion of our production ramp."  Shares +1.7% AH.

    The average U.S. airfare for the upcoming Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday seasons is trending ~3% higher than last year, Priceline (PCLN) says. "The number of available seats for holiday travel is still down due to flight reductions and airline mergers," PCLN says, which "reduces the chances that holiday fares are going to drop."

    Marriott International (MAR): FQ3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $2.7B beats by $50M. Shares +2.5% AH. (PR)

    More on Marriott International (MAR): Q3 easily beats on strength in its North American hotels, and better daily rates. The company narrowed its FY outlook range however, now seeing $1.68 to $1.72 per share, compared with previous guidance of $1.65 to $1.75. For Q4, earnings are expected to be $0.52 to $0.56 per share, the consensus estimate of $0.57. Shares +1.4% AH.

    Gambling revenue in Macau rose a weaker-than-forecast 12.3% to $2.99B in September, marking the second lowest tally of the year. Though analysts expect a bounce back in October, casino players in the region such as Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) will be on edge to see if visitor levels keep trending lower.

    Legalizing online poker is the number one topic of discussion in Las Vegas at the Global Gaming Expo. Industry bigwigs are nervously waiting out the election before a major push for legislation gets cranking. Despite stiff opposition, the hope is that the threat collapsing federal and state budgets will make extra revenue irresistible. The stat that tells it all: 33M players worldwide will wager almost $35B this year on the Internet gaming outside the U.S.

    The raging debate on the impact that the new Starbucks (SBUX +0.3%) Verismo machine will have on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -1.6%) shows no signs of dying down. While one camp sees the looming presence of Verismo in the market as directly impacting Keurig and K-Cup sales, the other side rails that GMCR's imposing distribution channel more than covers any slight dip in machine sales. The bigger issue: Will both companies lose out with Kraft, Safeway, and Kroger fighting them on consumable pricing.

    Five weeks after refreshing its mainframe line, IBM isupdating its high-end Power Unix server line. Relying on IBM's newPower 7+ CPUs, Big Blue promises the hardware will deliver a 30%-40% performance boost over prior-gen solutions. The Unix market appears to be in perpetual decline, as enterprises increasingly opt for Windows and Linux gear. But IBM has been able to mitigate the impact by taking share from H-P and Oracle. IBM is also rolling out a new high-end storage system, as well as an analytics appliance.

  164. Phil


    Because a week wouldn't be complete without a new Facebook (
    FB -2.1%) ad product, the company is now giving users the chance to pay $7 to use its Promoted Posts offering, until nowaimed at businesses, to make sure an important post will appear near the top of their friends' news feeds. Separately, marketing chief Carolyn Everson says Facebook has begun tailoring its ad products to specific industries such as auto and telecom – GM must be pleased.

    The market for streaming video gets a bit more crowded as Toys R Us launches its own service to provide movies and TV shows for kids. Powered by Rovi (ROVI), the store will include over 4K titles with movies priced at $2.99 for a 24-hour rental and TV shows at $1.99 a pop. Future plans include apps and streaming content straight to devices.

    Amazon's (AMZNKindle Paperwhite e-reader is sold out until November: the e-commerce giant's site is showing a shipping time of 4-6 weeks for both the Wi-Fi and 3G models. Earlier this week, reviewers gushed over the Paperwhite's front-lit display, with nearly all of them calling it superior to that of the Nook Glowlight  (BKS).

    Apple (AAPL) has "deliberated" about migrating its Mac hardware away from Intel (INTC) CPUs, sources tell Bloomberg Businessweek, though such a move isn't considered imminent. If Apple was to abandon Intel, it would likely be in favor of its ARM-based A-series processors, currently used in iOS devices. Last year, a Japanese blog reported Apple put an A5 chip inside a MacBook Air test model, and an Intel exec claimed Apple threatened to end its relationship with Intel over power consumption. Will Haswell's power savings be enough to satisfy Apple?

    More on AppleBloomberg Businessweek's talks with Apple insiders paint a complex picture of the post-Jobs era. Apple is said to have a "singular focus" on proving doubters wrong, and is deemed "happier and even somewhat more transparent" than before. But office politics are higher, and there's less "implicit pressure" on engineers. Also: Steve Jobs reportedly came to "loathe" Google (GOOG) and considered ending its iOS search deal, but decided not to out of fear of upsetting users. (previous)

    Doug Kass doesn't pull any punches in making a bear case for Apple (AAPL +0.9%). The iPhone 5 "feels like a toy," Kass writes, while claiming Steve Jobs would have never "let it go out the door like that." With Jobs gone, Apple risks "losing that magical Walt Disney feeling," he adds. Kass, who shorted Apple in winter (that hasn't worked out well), also believes Apple is "losing mojo and mindshare" to Samsung, and predicts his fears might start to be realized after the December quarter.


  165. lflantheman

    Good Morning!   I watched maybe 20 minutes of the debate, then fell asleep.  It looked like Romney had the upper hand, and sounds like he may have 'won' the debate.   But it reminds me of something we say in the surgical world at times….."The operation was a success, but the patient died."   Thus, in future one may hear………….."Romney won the debates, but lost the election."

  166. lflantheman

    AAPL….I looked at Doug Kass' article on same.  His key phrase here is to the effect that AAPL may lose mojo and mindshare…….after the December quarter.   He may be right.  I'm playing AAPL to do well up through the December quarter.    Beyond that, it remains to be seen.  

  167. Phil

    ECB does nothing, waiting for Draghi's speech in about half hour.  
    PANL/Wappler – I used to invest in OLED but they got bought out.  Never liked PANL as much but they'll get their share over time.  Falling knife at the moment so you might want to wait for earnings (11/6) to see if their margins are being squeezed by lower prices as many fear.  If not, they'll have a nice ride back up.  

    HOV/DC – Well, at $3.80, you're not really a long-term holder of HPQ, you're just betting .40 that they don't fall back to $2 but owning the stock is not in your future with that trade (not likely, anyway).  If you don't want to wait for 2015s and want to be more aggressive, the $3.50/4.50 bull call spread is .25 (and you already made more than that) or you can roll up to the $3.50 short puts at $1.05 (+.65) and then add the $1/3 bull call spread for $1.60 and you're then in the $1/3 spread at net .05 (you already have .90 plus the new .65) and you have an artificial buy/write at $1.05/2.28, which is only a .28 higher break-even than you currently have but you can make $2 at $3.50 (and of course, you're still able to roll the short puts to 2015 (probably) $2.50 puts.  

    Hyperinflation/Hoss – That stuff really sneaks up on you.
    Flip-flop/1020 – Well yes, but who knows what's true with that guy.  Initially, I always thought he was lying to Republicans to get the nomination because, as a Governor, the guy was very liberal.  Maybe this is his end game as he doesn't need the Reps anymore – they're stuck with him and they're going to think he's just saying this stuff to win (and it doesn't seem to bother GOP voters to back a person who lies, cheats, etc.) while, in fact, he may fully intend to sell the GOP down the river as soon as he's in office.  
    Amateur/Flips – Actually that's true.  I was into Hillary and I always felt she won her debates and McCain was no challenge for anybody.  Obama was a huge disappointment last night – he should have shredded Romney on his flip-flop but he was simply not prepared for the guy who showed up and essentially answered every question with "well I'm going to do that too – only better."  

  168. dclark41

    Stocks To Watch For October 12, 2012
    Poll: By Wide Margin, Democrats Want Biden in All Remaining Debates

     
    A Dash Of Hair Transplant And Just Add Laughter
    Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
    Submitted by Tyler Durden.
    We always said that the presidential race in a country in which 40% of spending on wars, entitlements, interest on said debt, etc. is funded by debt (purchased mostly by foreigners and monetized by the Fed), is moot, and is merely one big tragicomedy designed to evoke nothing but laughter (especially since it is the creditors who call the shots). Today, we see that at least Joe Biden got the memo.
    And for some more laughs, this.

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