Courtesy of Doug Short.
Futures were up before the market opened, and what an open it was! The S&P 500 rose nearly 20 points in the first 10 minutes and then drifted slowly higher to the lunch hour. Market technicians would have expected some resistance at that point, which was the level of the index’s 200-day moving average. At about 2:45 PM the index started walking the 200-day MA like a tightrope artist. Would the final minutes show us a fall? No indeed. The index rallied in the final ten minutes and closed at its intraday high, up 1.99%, the fourth best daily gain of 2012.
Here is a 10-minute chart of Friday and today. In my Friday update, I mentioned the Boehner Bounce (“…we can do this and avert the fiscal cliff”). With the President out of the country and the House out of session until next Tuesday, the market can breathe a sigh of relief.
Here is a daily chart showing the two key moving averages.
The S&P 500 is now up 10.28% for 2012 but 5.38% below the interim closing high of September 14th.
From a longer-term perspective, the index is 105.0% above the March 2009 closing low and 11.4% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.